A Biden presidency is likely to be a huge win for the Middle East to gain back the market share as it restricts shale production and can be supportive for crude oil prices.
According to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for years, if not decades, OPEC members have been jousting for market share, which is, of course, the reason why the latest Saudi-Russia oil price war happened in the first place.
“A Biden presidency is likely to be a huge win for the Middle East to gain back the market share as it restricts shale production and can be supportive for crude oil prices,” the report said.
Talking about the OPEC approach, Trump would likely continue practicing Twitter oil diplomacy, which he started in his first term to urge OPEC plus producers to increase or cut supply during their meetings in Vienna. He takes credit for helping to negotiate an end to the March oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
“Under Biden, any US diplomacy toward OPEC might return behind the scenes. Antitrust legislation against OPEC would only see renewed interest if gasoline prices soar,” the report said.
Crude oil investors are facing a confused stance as US President Donald Trump’s presidency brings stability and Presidency under Joe Biden might bring uncertainty and more volatility in the market.
Prices can remain in levels of $45 as President Trump would like to keep prices at this level to make sure gasoline prices remain in control, which remains a main concern of taxpayers in U.S.
If U.S. voters decide to stay the course, the current push for energy dominance through increased drilling will continue. He is seen as a promoter of Shale which might put pressure as any stimulus and benefit to shale sector would lead to overproduction and more responsibility on OPEC plus to cut production and bring balance in the market.
Compared with a second term of the Trump administration, a Biden presidency could be a positive for U.S. oil and gas drillers because tougher regulations on hydraulic fracturing would likely reduce production, raising crude prices to levels of WTI $45-$55 in coming months after elections. If they elect a new president, the challenger has pledged to end new drilling on public lands and move toward a carbon-free future.
With his $2 trillion plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, Joe Biden might seem a far-from-ideal president for the Texas oil and gas industry. Looks like for Crude oil to rally, markets are praying for Vice President Biden to win and bring back optimism in the market as demand recovery is stalling and it might take more months for crude demand to recover.
A Biden win will likely be an upward catalyst for oil prices because it will increase costs for shale patch and will likely result in a weaker U.S. dollar, the report said.
However, headwinds remains to this optimistic view that if sanctions are pulled off from Venezuela or Iran, they might re-emerge as a significant oil exporter, it might put pressure on prices and can force adjustment in production for the three big oil producers and likely a reduction in through cycle prices which can push additional pressure on prices and bring back glut fears and push prices to levels of $35.
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