Erdogan accused Athens of making policies based on “provocative actions” and suggested that Greece is being “dragged into a swamp with military build-ups”…reports Asian Lite News
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to “use all means” to protect Ankara’s rights and interests against Greece.
“We will not fail to use all the means to defend our country’s rights and interests against Greece, when necessary,” Erdogan said at a press conference after a cabinet meeting on Monday.
His remarks came amid a recent escalation of tension between two neighbours over their disputes in the Aegean Sea, reports Xinhua news agency.
He accused Athens of making policies based on “provocative actions” and suggested that Greece is being “dragged into a swamp with military build-ups”.
“This is a dangerous game for both the Greek politicians, the Greek state, the Greek people,” Erdogan said.
Relations between the two countries have long been tense over a series of issues, including territory and energy disputes in the Aegean and the Mediterranean Seas.
The semi-official Anadolu Agency reported on Sunday the footage of Greek ships, carrying military vehicles, landed on Lesbos and Samos islands on September 18 and 21, respectively.
Turkey warned Greece that these islands have non-military status according to international treaties.
Earlier this month, Erdogan accused Greece of “harassing” Turkish fighter jets in the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean, a claim that Greece has rejected.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on September 11 said despite the recent “unacceptable” comments of Erdogan, he was “always available and open to a meeting with the Turkish leader”.
The hurricane is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday…reports Asian Lite News
Residents in parts of Tampa, Florida, received mandatory evacuation orders, as Hurricane Ian continued to strengthen.
The orders covered parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties along Florida’s Gulf Coast while authorities announced voluntary evacuation orders on Monday for areas slightly more inland.
Ian, located about 250 kilometre southeast of the western tip of Cuba as of Monday afternoon, is now a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 kilometre per hour, according to the latest public advisory issued by the US Hurricane Center (NHC).
The hurricane is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.
Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida on Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida on Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding, the NHC advisory predicted.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis tweeted on Monday that he encourages Floridians to “ensure they are prepared and that their emergency supply kit is stocked with supplies.”
“This is going to be a storm like we have never seen in the past,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said on Monday.
“I want everyone to understand the seriousness of this situation.”
President Joe Biden issued an emergency declaration for Florida on Saturday as Ian was intensifying in the Caribbean.
The storm system comes a week after Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico, bringing heavy rainfall and flash flooding to the US territory while cutting power to the entire islands.
Nearly 600,000 customers were still out of power in Puerto Rico as of Monday afternoon, according to an online tracker.
Rep. Nancy Mace said on Sunday that some Republicans are thinking about impeaching President Joe Biden if they take over the House chamber following the midterm elections…reports Ashe O
A section of the Republicans are “seriously” planning bringing an impeachment motion in the House of Representatives should they retake the house in the upcoming November 8 midterm elections, even as poll pundits predict that the odds are divided, albeit democrats could have swing votes with abortion rights, stricter gun laws and threats to democracy campaigns.
Rep. Nancy Mace said on Sunday that some Republicans are thinking about impeaching President Joe Biden if they take over the House chamber following the midterm elections. “I believe there’s a lot of pressure on Republicans to have that vote and put that legislation forward,” Mace, R-S.C., told host Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press”.
Mace said that if the impeachment vote happened, it would be “divisive”, and that the House needs to work together. She also said she would back whomever the GOP nominates, including former President Donald Trump. Some Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also speculated about a Biden impeachment.
“Yeah, I do think there’s a chance of that, whether it’s justified or not,” Cruz said on an episode of his podcast “Verdict with Ted Cruz”, as early as January itself.
He said he thought Democrats used impeachment “for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him.”
It may be recalled that Nancy Mace won the republican primaries recently though she had at first slammed: Trump for January 6, then backtracked during her S.C. primary. Did that help her win?
But the effort to impeach Trump was bipartisan and included 10 House Republicans who broke from their party ranks and joined House Democrats. Eight of them are retiring. Two of them were in the race. One of them, Liz Cheney, lost her seat in Wyoming to a Trump backed candidate. She has vowed to launch a movement to prevent Trump from entering White House again. Her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney under former President George W. Bush has supported her.
Mace, who defeated Trump-backed challenger Katie Arrington in the GOP primary in June, has supported the results of the 2020 presidential election. Mace worked on Trump’s presidential campaign, but criticised him following the January 6 attack.
The race for the mid-terms has gained much momentum reaching a very crucial phase and Gallup polls are predicting a 42 per cent to 46 per cent chance for both Trump and Biden in the close race between Republicans and Democrats.
Speculation about a hung house is rife as voting is expected to be very partisan along party lines. But swing voters as among independents on either side could hold the trump card to give a wafer thin majority to either side – the Republicans and the Democrats. Pundits call the midterm elections as the most decisive in American politics in recent times and a definite move ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
They also said when any incumbent president got a 42 per cent approval ratings at the hustings , the party lost 17 seats, and if the rating was 50 per cent the party lost 37 seats and this has been the tradition in all elections in the midterms of an incumbent presidency.
They will also visit other historic Sikh shrines in Pakistan, including Gurdwara Panja Sahib and Nankana Sahib, as well as Lahore…reports Asian Lite News
A group of 240 Sikh pilgrims will visit Pakistan on October 28 to participate in the ‘Saka Panja Sahib’ centenary event.
The event will be organized at the Gurdwara Panja Sahib located in Hasan Abdal, some 45 km away from Rawalpindi.
Harmeet Singh Kalka, President of the Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee (DSGMC), on Tuesday said that the pilgrims will reach Pakistan from the Attari-Wagah border checkpoint on October 28 and will return to Amritsar on November 2.
They will also visit other historic Sikh shrines in Pakistan, including Gurdwara Panja Sahib and Nankana Sahib, as well as Lahore.
Of the 240 pilgrims, 40 are being sent by the DSGMC, Kalka added.
Saka Panja Sahib, the heroic event which took place at Hasan Abdal railway station, close to the sacred shrine of Pahja Sahib October 30, 1922, when Sikh masses wanted to provide Langar (community meals) to Sikh prisoners.
But, they were arrested for peaceful protests in Amritsar and were being sent by special trains to distant jails. Around 200 Sikhs stopped a train forcefully carrying Sikh prisoners to offer them food as authorities refused to halt the train at the station.
Some of them attained martyrdom in the incident as they lay on the track to stop the train. They were hailed as martyrs and, until the partition of 1947, a three-day religious fair used to be held in their memory at Pahja Sahib from October 30 to November 1 every year.
Kalka said that all pilgrims should be vaccinated with two doses against Covid-19 and must undergo a test 72 hours before leaving for Pakistan.
A negative RTPCR report is mandatory and a further RAT test will be conducted on arrival at the joint checkpost in Attari-Wagah border.
Accommodation for the visiting devotees will be arranged by the Pakistan government and staff of the Evacuee Trust Properties Board (ETPB) will issue room numbers in all gurdwaras.
The DSGMC will hold a special Covid-19 testing camp for the pilgrims at its office in Rakab Ganj Sahib, the dates of which will be disclosed shortly, Kalka added.
Japan, one of the main creditors, is to help restructure about $30 billion of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt as a means to come out of the economic crisis…reports Asian Lite News
Japan has assured to play a “constructive role” with other creditor countries, including India and China, to restructure Sri Lanka debts in the wake of the worst-ever financial crisis.
Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi made the commitment during a meeting with Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is in Japan to attend the state funeral of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
“During the meeting, Foreign Minister Hayashi welcomed Sri Lanka’s progress with the IMF and expressed his country’s willingness to take a leading role in Sri Lanka’s creditor talks,” President Media Division said in a statement.
Facing the dollar crunch and skyrocketing inflation, Sri Lanka is awaiting an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout around $2.9 billion, but the Indian Ocean Island first has to strike a deal with creditors to secure the package.
Japan, one of the main creditors, is to help restructure about $30 billion of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt as a means to come out of the economic crisis.
Sri Lanka owes Japan around $3.5 billion of total bilateral debt of about $10 billion.
Japan said that it would stand by Sri Lanka in support of the debt restructuring negotiation process in order to reach the final agreement with the IMF.
“Japan intends to play a constructive role with other creditor countries, including China and India,” Japanese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Hideaki Mizukoshi told the media.
Referring to the cancellation and suspension of several Japanese Investment project, including a $1.5 billion Tokyo-funded light rail project for Colombo, President Wickremesinghe has expressed regret over the breakdown of ties between the two nations.
Wickremesinghe stated that he was keen to restart those projects.
“The President also indicated that the Government was interested in Japan investing in Sri Lanka’s renewable energy projects. Foreign Minister Hayashi explained that Japan had increased its commitment to renewable energy and would be willing to explore future investment opportunities in Sri Lanka,” the Media Division statement said.
The President’s Office also stated that Wickremesinghe who met Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Tokyo on Tuesday said that Colombo was ready to implement free trade agreement with Singapore.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong welcomed the news and stated that Singapore was looking forward to investing in Sri Lanka once again.
The 10 per cent cashback offer will be over and above the company’s offers, on both EMI and non-EMI transactions…reports Asian Lite news
Samsung India on Monday announced its first-ever credit card in India in partnership with Axis Bank and Visa, that will give customers 10 per cent cashback across all Samsung products and services round the year.
The 10 per cent cashback offer will be over and above the company’s offers, on both EMI and non-EMI transactions.
“We realise that 70 per cent of consumers are upgrading their devices within 12 months of purchase in the country. This co-branded credit card will help them save their hard-earned money while enjoying new devices with this industry-first offering,” Raju Pullan, Senior Vice President, Mobile Business, Samsung India, told IANS.
The annual fee for the card’s Signature variant is Rs 500 with taxes and for the Infinite variant is Rs 5,000 with taxes.
On the Signature variant, cardholders can avail up to Rs 10,000 cashback annually, with a monthly cashback limit of Rs 2,500.
On the Infinite variant, cardholders can avail up to Rs 20,000 cash back annually, with a monthly cashback limit of Rs 5,000.
Samsung India and Axis Bank have partnered with key merchants — Bigbasket, Myntra, Tata 1mg, Urban Company and Zomato — to bring more rewards to cardholders on their daily spends.
The card also offers complimentary airport lounge access, fuel surcharge waiver, dining offers and access to a bouquet of offers from Axis Bank and Visa.
“The card is RBI-complaint and meets all the latest requirements of the central bank, including on tokenisation. The consumer electronics and technology space is open for disruption and we are the first, along with Samsung, to distrust this space,” Sanjeev Moghe, President and Head, Cards and Payments at Axis Bank, told IANS.
There is no minimum transaction value, which means cardholders can get 10 per cent cashback on the smallest of Samsung purchases.
“The Samsung Axis Bank Credit Card, powered by Visa, is our next big India-specific innovation that will change the way our customers buy Samsung products,” said Ken Kang, President and CEO, Samsung South-West Asia.
Amitabh Chaudhry, MD and CEO, Axis Bank, added that their focus is to offer product propositions that cater to our customers’ ever evolving needs and give them a seamless experience.
realme was the first brand to introduce a 5G smartphone in India in 2020 when conversations about 5G had just started..reports Asian Lite News
With the 5G auctions concluded and telcos all set with the network infrastructure, India is set to see 5G become a reality for the users. Once the services are rolled out, 5G is poised to bring a host of opportunities and drive greater use of smart technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, the internet of things and much more.
With all of these developments, technology brands have also prepared themselves for 5G, realme being one of the readiest brands with 5 million realme users already equipped with 5G-enabled smartphones.
realme was the first brand to introduce a 5G smartphone in India in 2020 when conversations about 5G had just started. The brand believed that users were ready for the advanced technology and should have easy access to it.
Over the last two years, realme has introduced 23 5G-enabled smartphones across price segments and directed all its efforts into being a 5G democratizer for the country. More than 50 per cent of realme’s portfolio is now 5G-enabled, with realme 9i 5G being one of the latest affordable 5G smartphones.
Not just that, realme took notice of all network bands that were being made available during the auctions and has ensured that its smartphones support all those bands so that no user faces a challenge while accepting the new technology.
realme reckons that 5G has the potential to bring the entire tech ecosystem together and therefore, has dedicated 90 per cent of its research and development efforts to 5G technologies and devices. The results of these investments can be seen as the brand is now also working towards equipping its AIoT devices with 5G – realme PAD X being the first one.
Moving forward, the brand has carved out a detailed plan to further its efforts in 5G and make it more accessible to premium as well as mass users. The brand is rolling out regular OTA updates to its products to make them 5G-ready and aims to have 80 per cent of the users 5G ready before 5G officially rolls out. Being committed to bringing the best 5G experience to its users and supporting global adoption of 5G products, realme plans to establish seven R&D centres worldwide, including one in India.
In order to encourage more users to opt for 5G smartphones, realme is currently providing massive discounts of up to Rs 15,000 on its smartphone range including 5G-enabled smartphones.
Users can enjoy realme 5G phones such as the realme 9i 5G and narzo 50 5G, starting from Rs 10,999 and the realme GT NEO 3T starting at Rs 22,999, among others. By next year, realme aims to expand its current 5G portfolio of 23 devices in India in 2023 and aims to launch 100 per cent 5G models for its Number series next year.
Foxconn is assembling the new iPhone 14 at its Sriperumbudur facility near Chennai…reports Asian Lite News
In a fillip to India’s thrust on local manufacturing, Apple on Monday confirmed it has kicked off the production of new iPhone 14 in India, a first for the tech giant as it narrows down the manufacturing period of new iPhones in India, along with China which is its key global manufacturing hub.
The locally-assembled iPhone 14 will go on sale in the country in the fourth quarter, as the company bolsters its local manufacturing/assembling plans by spending billions of dollars.
“The new iPhone 14 lineup introduces groundbreaking new technologies and important safety capabilities. We’re excited to be manufacturing iPhone 14 in India,” Apple told IANS in a statement.
Foxconn is assembling the new iPhone 14 at its Sriperumbudur facility near Chennai.
At this pace, industry analysts predict that next year, Apple might manufacture iPhone 15 in India at the same time in China.
The tech giant first started manufacturing iPhones in India in 2017 with iPhone SE.
Apple manufactures some of its most advanced iPhones in the country, including iPhone 11, iPhone 12 and iPhone 13, at the Foxconn facility, while iPhone SE and iPhone 12 are being assembled at the Wistron factory in the country.
As India doubles down on local manufacturing of technology products, Apple is likely to move 5 per cent of its new iPhone 14 production to India by the end of this year, and 25 per cent by 2025, according to a JP Morgan analysis.
“India’s iPhone supply chain has historically supplied only legacy models. Interestingly, Apple has requested that EMS vendors manufacture iPhone 14/14 Plus models in India in 4Q22, within two to three months of the start of production in Mainland China,” according to the JP Morgan report.
“The much shorter interval implies the increasing importance of India production and likely higher iPhone allocations to India manufacturing in the future,” the report noted.
Buoyed by the ease-of-doing business and friendly local manufacturing policies, Apple’s ‘Make in India’ iPhones will potentially account for close to 85 per cent of its total iPhone production for the country this year.
With the iPhone 14 series, Apple’s iPhone production in India is slated to jump from 7 million iPhones in 2021 to touch a new milestone of around 12 million iPhones in 2022, marking a significant growth of more than 71 per cent (year-on-year), according to CMR.
Complemented by sincere efforts of domestic toy manufacturers, the growth of the Indian toy industry has been remarkable in less than two years despite the Covid-19 pandemic…reports Asian Lite News
Annual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nearly doubled to $83 billion as ‘Make in India’, the flagship scheme of the government to facilitate investment and foster innovation, completed eight years.
As per the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, FDI inflows stood at $45.15 billion in 2014-2015. The year 2021-22 recorded the highest ever FDI at $83.6 billion.
According to the ministry, to attract foreign investments, the government has put in place a liberal and transparent policy wherein most sectors are open to FDI under the automatic route.
“The year 2021-22 recorded the highest ever FDI at $83.6 billion. This FDI has come from 101 countries, which has been invested across 31 states and UTs and 57 sectors in the country. On the back of economic reforms and ‘Ease of Doing Business’ in recent years, India is on track to attract $100 billion FDI in the current financial year,” the ministry said on Saturday.
It said the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme across 14 key manufacturing sectors was launched in 2020-21 as a big boost to the Make in India initiative.
The PLI scheme incentivises domestic production in strategic growth sectors where India has comparative advantage. This includes strengthening domestic manufacturing, forming resilient supply chains, making Indian industries more competitive and boosting the export potential. The PLI scheme is expected to generate significant gains for production and employment, with benefits extending to the MSME eco-system.
Recognising the importance of semiconductors in the world economy, the government has launched a $10 billion incentive scheme to build a semiconductor, display and design ecosystem in India.
Complemented by sincere efforts of domestic toy manufacturers, the growth of the Indian toy industry has been remarkable in less than two years despite the Covid-19 pandemic.
The import of toys in FY21-22 reduced by 70 per cent to Rs 877.8 crore. There has also been a distinct improvement in the quality of toys in the domestic market.
Simultaneously, the efforts of the industry have led to an export of toys worth Rs 2,601.5 crore in FY21-22, which is an increase of more than 61 per cent over Rs 1,612 crore in FY18-19.
India’s toy export registered tremendous growth of 636 per cent in April-August 2022 over the same period in 2013, said the ministry.
Given their record of mistaking what they wish for as what is, Atlanticist media immediately reached the conclusion that Xi’s concerns were the same as Modi’s, writes Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat
Months before he initiated the Special Military Operation (aka war) against Ukraine, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin came to Delhi on a visit that barely lasted nine hours. Even during that brief period, it became clear that Putin was losing patience at the way in which the Ukrainian military and irregular “nationalist” groups such as the Azov Regiment were taking kinetic action against those parts of Ukraine that had broken away to form the Donetsk and Lugansk “republics”.
Such activities were being backed by NATO, which since 2014 had been conducting a proxy war against Russia, through the generous provisions of training, intelligence, weapons and other battlefield requisites to Ukrainian forces. Together with what may be called either mercenaries or “guest fighters” from parts of Europe, Ukrainian units sought to win back the territory lost to Russian-speaking separatists in 2014, the year that saw the forced exit and exile of President Viktor Yanukovych. The disquiet over developments in Ukraine manifested by Putin during his nine-hour 2021 visit to Delhi was interpreted in Washington, London, Berlin and Paris as evidence that his confidence was getting shaky.
Rather than hold back the Ukrainian forces from their assault on the newly declared Lugansk and Donbass republics, they were encouraged to deliver blow after blow, with artillery shelling and military probes into Russian-speaking territories multiplying as a consequence of the misreading within NATO of Putin’s determination to not repeat his earlier example of doing little when Kosovo was formally detached from Serbia in 2008. That same year, Putin launched a military campaign against Georgia by annexing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as separate “republics”.
Vladimir Putin
NATO MISREAD PUTIN
Encouraged by NATO in his desire to reconquer the eastern territories lost to separatists in 2014, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy began a military campaign that was explicitly designed to extinguish the separate status of the territories earlier lost to the Donetsk and Lugansk “republics”. In days, these and additional territories gained by the Russian advance during 2022 will be recognized by Putin as becoming part of the Russian Federation. Thereafter, an attack on them would be regarded by the Kremlin as an attack on the Russian Federation itself.
Assistance by NATO to Ukraine in kinetic action against such territories would be regarded as a direct attack by the alliance on Russia for the first time in that organisation’s history. NATO’s serial misreading of the intentions of the Kremlin appear to be leading the world towards an unprecedented escalation of the Ukraine conflict. In 2014, the misreading of the intentions of one side by another converted what was to be just a Balkan war into a European conflict. In that conflict, Serbia was the catalyst. In this, it could be Ukraine.
Much of the misreading of Putin has come through reliance on information provided by oligarchs who claimed to know his mind. They fed policymakers in Washington particularly with the impression that Putin was deeply unpopular, and that there would soon be a public revolt against him. They were wrong. Just as the June 1941 attack by Germany unified the Russian people behind Stalin, the activation of a proxy war by NATO on Russia (in an echo of Cold War 1.0) is mobilising the Russian people behind their leadership. For Vladimir Putin, either he is seen to succeed in his mission, or he will be removed from the Kremlin.
WHAT XI WANTED OF PUTIN
After the Samarkand meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a public admission was made by President Vladimir Putin that CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping had “concerns” about the war in Ukraine that Moscow “understood”. Unlike Xi, who even in this interaction was predictably reticent in public in matters of detail, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in full view of television cameras expressed to President Putin his view that “this was not the era of war”. It was a rebuke addressed as much to the Chinese as to the Russian leader, given that over the past six years, Xi Jinping has consistently upped the ante by taking aggressive actions in multiple theatres, including the Himalayan massif and more recently, Taiwan.
Given their record of mistaking what they wish for what is, Atlanticist media immediately reached the conclusion that Xi’s concerns were the same as Modi’s, namely seeking a speedy end of a war that has raged since February. According to impeccable sources in the capitals involved in the Xi-Putin conversation that took place on the sidelines of the SCO Summit, what had been conveyed by Xi to Putin was that he should adopt measures that would in a much faster way ensure an end to the war on terms favourable to Moscow. The mobilisation of 300,000 more troops and changes in the tactics and weaponry used thus far in the conflict indicate that Putin has operationalised this advice from his “no limits” partner.
Such a mobilisation was ordered for the Russian Army only twice before in history, first in July 1914 during World War I and subsequently in June 1941 after Germany invaded the USSR. Rather than going against Xi’s wishes, such a move only confirms that the CCP General Secretary advised President Putin to go all out in ensuring a rapid and favourable outcome to the conflict. Not a surprise, considering that the conflict is giving the PRC access at discounted prices to oil, gas and food grains, the prices of which have shot up worldwide as a consequence of the sanctions by NATO powers against Russia. Not for the first time, media pundits in Atlanticist outlets got a story wrong, in this case by making the erroneous assumption that Xi told his Russian counterpart to cut his losses and end the war immediately in the way that Prime Minister Modi had.
PUTIN’S UKRAINE PLAN NO SECRET TO XI
In the face of the logic of the Sino-Russian alliance, pundits in US and European media, government and academe continue to believe that Putin did not divulge to Xi his plan of beginning an outright war on Ukraine, in the meeting they had just a couple of days before the President of the Russian Federation launched the 2022 Ukraine-Russia war. In actuality, Putin got an assurance from his Chinese counterpart that, no matter what the public posture, the PRC would provide a lifeline to Russia sufficient to overcome the impact of Atlanticist sanctions.
But for massively increased purchases by China of Russian resources, Putin would have been unable to finance what has become a long and costly conflict. Even while delighted at the misreading of western media of the CCP leadership’s position on the 2022 war, briefings and statements designed to mislead Atlanticist countries in particular have continued from Beijing in a steady flow. These have obscured the reality that Xi has been in favour of the NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine continuing until any chance of reconciliation between Russia and the Atlanticist powers ends, thereby making Moscow even more dependent on Beijing than it already was.
TAKE PUTIN SERIOUSLY ABOUT NUKES
In this 2022 version of the 1962 game of “chicken” played between the US and Russia, it is disconcerting but unsurprising that senior levels within military HQ in Moscow are examining the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield not only in Ukraine but in Poland, the country that in 1939 was influential in persuading Neville Chamberlain and Eduard Daladier to ignore Joseph Stalin’s request that France, the USSR and the UK immediately join forces against Germany, a situation in which Soviet troops would need to march through Poland to attack Germany.
Among the more hawkish elements of the Russian military, the calculation is that NATO would lack the will to respond in kind to the use by Russia of nuclear weapons, a move that would achieve Xi’s objective of permanently fracturing the relationship between Moscow and Paris, Washington, Berlin and London. Given the pressure that Putin is under from those around him who seek a Chechenesque conclusion to the conflict, warnings of a possible use of nuclear weapons may not be a bluff, according to those aware of the thinking in the Kremlin. These are the sources who had first warned in the closing months of 2021 that Putin was losing patience with the way in which NATO was seeking to ensure that Ukrainian forces re-occupy the Donbass and Lugansk “republics” that have now been marked for incorporation into Russia on the Crimea model.
While the leader of a democracy may on retirement face pesky prosecutors levelling mostly unprovable charges against him, the leader of an authoritarian state may after a fall from grace lose his freedom, if not his life. The manner in which military planners in NATO ignore the fact that they are dealing with a Head of State & Military who has a briefcase with nuclear codes always close by may prove to be their most consequential error in the saga over the future of Ukraine that began with the ouster of President Yanukovych in 2014 and the grooming of Ukraine to be to Russia what GHQ Rawalpindi-controlled Pakistan is to India.
PUTIN UNDER PRESSURE TO INCREASE EFFORTS
Atlanticist media narratives, despite freedom of the press, usually hew closely to the spin that their governments seek to communicate to their public. For months, this analyst has cautioned that the Atlanticist view that Putin is the hard-liner is wrong. In fact, a complaint since May 2022 that is finally coming out in the open is that he has been too cautious in his war aims and in the way in which he achieves them.
The Putin who oversaw military operations in Chechnya (the factor that secured him his present job) has been absent in the Ukraine conflict. Outlets such as BBC, DW or CNN are filled with horror stories about Russian “atrocities” on civilians, the reality is that the President of the Russian Federation has sought to hold back his troops from going all out against the opposing side. The argument taking place within the precincts of the Kremlin is that Russia under Putin is anyway being demonised for its “brutality”, so why not let loose the dogs of war and actually earn the reputation that has been placed on Putin’s head from the very start of this conflict? An early sign of such a shift may come from the planned Russian response to efforts by Ukrainian forces to sabotage efforts at holding a vote in the referendums that are planned as a preliminary to annexation of those territories by Russia.
Such a response is unlikely to stop at the boundaries of the Russian-speaking zones sought to be absorbed, but is likely to be witnessed in other zones as well, especially those that are the strongholds of the Ukrainian “nationalists”. Once the territories holding the referendums get formally incorporated into the Russian Federation, any attack on them would be taken as an attack on Russia, an attack in which NATO would be considered as no longer an accessory but a combatant.
The danger to Putin is not from those wanting “peace at any price” with NATO, but from those unhappy with the constraints that he has imposed on Russian forces during their operations in Ukraine. The CCP leadership anticipates that such an escalation of the conflict and its consequence on future relations between Russia and NATO would drain the energy away from any moves by the Quad and other formations to seriously challenge China, should the PLA mount an effort at subduing the island country by force. Which is why adulatory reports of “Xi the peacemaker” that have been appearing since the start of the 2022 conflict are exercises in delusion.
MODI, XI VIEWS NOT SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT
The stated desire of Prime Minister Modi from the start of the 2022 Ukraine war was to see an early end to it. In contrast, the intention of CCP General Secretary Xi has been to ensure that the faultlines caused by the war between Russia and the Atlanticists become permanent. This is an objective in which Russophobic policymakers and commentators across both sides of the Atlantic are helping to achieve.
Among the reasons why Putin had thus far held back substantial elements of his fire in the conflict was the influence of the St Petersburg school of strategic thinking in Russia, which has remained obsessed with the possibility of Russia and both sides of the Atlantic coming together in a repeat of the 1941-45 USSR-US-UK Grand Alliance. Among the casualties of the war has been the hold of the St Petersburg school on strategic planning by the Russian leadership. The war has, to the delight of Xi, majorly widened the faultlines already present between the Atlantic Alliance and the Russian Federation.
LONG WAR SUITS XI
Where India is concerned, from the start of the conflict, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, assisted by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, stressed that by far the most significant theatre of potential threat to the democracies was in the Indo-Pacific and no longer in the Atlantic, and implicitly that the country to watch out for was not Russia but China, especially under Xi Jinping. Those who seek to avoid the abyss of war and economic distress back Modi’s counsel to Putin at the SCO to end this war soonest.
However, such a view conflicts with the logic of Communist China, which sees in the Ukraine conflict an opportunity to realise several of its most important strategic goals, including a permanent rift in relations between Moscow and the Atlantic Alliance, and a de facto extinguishing by the PRC of the sovereignty of Taiwan. All this by taking advantage of a world in which the US and the rest of NATO have become embroiled in a global disaster, in the magnification of which their own contribution has not been trivial.
