Pashtuns in Balochistan in revolt against Islamabad as ethnic nationalism in Pakistan soars.(photo:IN)
The increased frequency of brain drain from Pakistan has had serious negative impact on the country’s socio-economic situation. Brain drain has seen a sharp increase in Pakistan as skilled and educated professionals are leaving the country for better opportunities for work and living standards … A special report by Dr Sakariya Kareem
Political instability, economic crisis, unemployment, crumbling health infrastructure, corruption, and religious extremism are leading the brain drain from Pakistan to multiply at an exceptional rate. In 2021, 225,000 Pakistanis left the country, which surged by 340 per cent in the following year, to 765,000 in 2022. Making things much worse, Pakistan has witnessed the brain drain of 832,000 in the very first half of 2023.
The increased frequency of brain drain from Pakistan has had a serious negative impact on the country’s socio-economic situation. Brain drain has seen a sharp increase in Pakistan as skilled and educated professionals are leaving the country for better opportunities for work and living standards. Software engineer Nouman Shah left Pakistan for a better-earning job in Saudi Arabia due to rising living costs. “My low earnings were inadequate to run a household there, while a job prospect in Riyadh was too good to pass up,” he said.
Over 60 per cent of the population in Pakistan falls under the age bracket of 15-29 years, and the situation is likely to be the same until 2050, according to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Moreover, Pakistan’s median age is 20.2 against the global value of 30.3. Yet, Pakistan is failing to exploit these benefits. The brain drain led to a significant decrease in intellectual resources in Pakistan.
Will Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif. ( Credit : @CMShehbaz/twitter)
Over 2.5 million people left Pakistan in past five years. In 2023, the highly-educated and highly-trained Pakistanis found employment abroad including 11,000 accountants, 11,000 engineers, 4,000 doctors, 34,000 technicians, 37,500 managers, 4,000 nurses, and 1,560 teachers, among others. Karachi-based gynaecologist Afsheen Akbar said “It is painful to see some of our best doctors move to the US, but can we blame them? The conditions at public hospitals are often dire, and the health workers get paid so little.”
The economic slowdown in Pakistan has set off massive unemployment, a key reason for the brain drain. The power crisis, delays in Chinese-funded projects, declining exports, and corruption in the bureaucracy have added to the problem. Lahore-based filmmaker Hassan Zaidi, who documented migrants’ issues, blamed the deteriorating political and economic situation. “It [stability] is directly proportional to legal and illegal [migrations], both of which are [currently] overloaded,” he said.
Pakistan’s political instability, which heightened after the dismissal of former prime minister Imran Khan, has exacerbated Pakistan’s economic misery. Sergi Lanau, director at Oxford Economics, said “It makes things quite complicated. This is very bad news [in] a situation that was already very hard.”
Inflation in Pakistan rose to 38 per cent in May 2023, which was the highest in the past six decades. “Hundreds of thousands of young men, including highly educated people, who are worried about inflation, unemployment and uncertain economic and political situation, are going abroad every year in search of employment,” said an official from the Pakistan Bureau of Emigrants.
Religious extremism and terrorism also are responsible for Pakistani youth to feel disenchanted and discouraged. According to a survey conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), 37 per cent of Pakistani want to leave the country and settle abroad if they could. The Pakistan-administered Kashmir tops the list with 44 per cent expressing their will to leave the country.
Over 11 million Pakistanis had left the country legally to settle in 50 different countries, as per the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Millions of Pakistanis have resorted to illegal ways to reach Western countries for a better standard of life. Over 100 Pakistani were killed recently in a boat accident when they were trying to enter Greece illegally.
Arsalan Bilal, researcher at Norway-based Centre for Peace Studies, said religious extremism has shrunken freedom and the space for critical thinking in Pakistan. “Thinking minds cannot survive and thrive in such an environment. Why would someone with a liberal and critical mindset want to stay in such a country, provided there is no possibility for change in sight?” he said.
Researchers assert that human capital is crucial for sustainable social and economic growth, and thus, brain drain leads to human capital shrinkage and fiscal losses, and induces occupational distortions.[16][17] The sudden departure of educated and skilled professionals poses threats to the socio-economic development of Pakistan. Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s Country Director for Pakistan, said “Pakistan’s human capital challenges are among the most serious in the world—it is a human capital crisis that is profound, silent and with far-reaching negative effects on the potential of the country and its people.”
The Communist Party of China (CPC) views reunification as a matter of national sovereignty and territorial integrity and has conducted serious propagandic operations to influence its domestic population into consenting a forceful reunification, if needed
Ever since the Communist Party of China (CPC) declared the birth of a new communist nation on 1st October 1949, the party has been driven by its unwavering quest to take over the island nation of Taiwan. The CPC has always considered Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory and has historically stated its intentions to reunify the island as part of mainland China.
The Party’s claim, which is based on its interpretation of history, views the separation of Taiwan as a national disgrace as a result of the Chinese Civil War which continued until 1949. The Communist Party of China views reunification as a matter of national sovereignty and territorial integrity and has conducted serious propagandic operations to influence its domestic population into consenting to a forceful reunification if needed.
A Chinese flag is seen in front of the Friendship bridge over the Yalu River connecting the North Korean town of Sinuiju and Dandong in China’s Liaoning Province, April 1, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
Historically, the root of the dispute goes back to the Chinese civil war between 1927-49 when the Communist Party of China violently took control of the country under its leader Mao Zedong. The war, which was fought between the CPC and the Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang or KMT, resulted in the formation of the Republic of China (ROC) when the KMT was pushed to present-day Taiwan. Although the KMT declared itself to be the legitimate government of mainland China, the Communist party was the one with control of mainland China as it came to be post-civil war. With the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland, the civil war was all but over, without the inclusion of Taiwan as part of the mainland under the CPC’s control.
Since then, the CPC has always maintained that Taiwan, which declared itself to be the ROC at the behest of the KMT party, falls under the jurisdiction and sovereignty of the PRC. The perils of an incomplete victory for either side have resulted in one of the most debated disputes international stakeholders have ever witnessed.
The CPC’s intentions of a complete takeover have also begun gaining strength given its increasing stature in the international arena in the past decade. Analysts worry that a violent takeover can directly result in a migration crisis over and above the significant loss of life as part of the takeover process. Amongst the central issues of the dispute is the contestation regarding the political status of Taiwan. The CPC has always maintained that its international partners adhere to the ‘One China Policy’ which signifies the fact that there is indeed only one China and that Taiwan is not a separate entity away from the PRC ruled by the CPC. Taiwan on the other hand, which follows a democratic set-up where political parties contest elections for electoral victories, has officially claimed itself to be a separate sovereign state from the PRC with its own administrative structures and territorial boundaries.
A significant worry among stakeholders and analysts has been the constant threat of an oncoming war that the Communist Party has peddled domestically as well as internationally to stroke tensions and fear among Taiwanese citizens. The PRC not only maintains a strong military and naval foothold around Taiwan but has been rigorously testing new military technologies in and around the sovereign boundaries of Taiwan in order to intimidate the island nation. These actions have often been interpreted to be a show of force and a cruel reminder of the Communist Party’s willingness to use brute military force in order to assert its claims over the island nation.
These devastating reminders of an onset of a pending war have however been deterred by the fact that despite the political tensions and differences there are cultural ties between Taiwan and China which are led by family members crossing over to meet each other regularly. Such cross-strait relations have evolved gradually with limited economic exchanges and people-to-people interactions allowed between the two sides. However, with China’s growing position as a regional hegemon, its intentions of forging a complete military takeover cannot be dismissed given the cultural ties people share with their families in the island nation.
Advocates of peace in Taiwan have constantly raised the growing importance of peaceful dialogue and negotiations, while some others have emphasized the importance of maintaining the status quo. However, within mainland China, the calls have been somewhat contrary. The growing misconception of China’s international power has led many within the country and more dangerously within the Party to believe that a takeover of the island is impending. Such a growing perception only seems to be increasing in the past decade and leading to the misconception that such a strategy will prevail without consequences.
Not only will it go on to cost the integrity of the country internationally, but will also have ghastly effects all across the globe. Any action taken to alter the prevailing status quo will prove to be detrimental to China’s international identity and will cost it the isolation of the global community above and over the involvement of the United States which is expected to come in support of the Taiwanese side. Thus, it is important that the world constantly assert its boundaries and red lines to the CPC in order to prevent a misconceived power assertion by the Chinese military. For if not, an advent of a global disaster is certain.
Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US have witnessed turbulent protests orchestrated by pro-Khalistani extremists. The tricolour flying atop the Indian High Commission was grabbed at by protesters chanting pro-Khalistan slogans. India has consistently cautioned the UK about the detrimental impact of such elements on bilateral relations. Hence, the imperative lies with the UK’s police and judicial system to take decisive action against these extremists and safeguard the atmosphere of mutual ties
In March 2023, the tricolour flying atop the Indian High Commission was grabbed at by protesters chanting pro-Khalistan slogans. Following the incident on 19 March, India registered its’ strong protest with the British government over the safety of its diplomatic mission and questioned the lack of sufficient security at the premises.
Subsequently, such activism by pro-Khalistani extremists was witnessed in Australia, Canada and the US. Notably, India has been consistently warning the UK that such elements vitiate the atmosphere of bilateral ties and thus there was a need for the UK’s police and judicial system to take action against such extremists. Now an independent report on the UK’s handling of religious extremists has suggested that the “Government should clearly define and investigate extremist activity and identify where this exists within the Sikh community, taking steps to develop a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of subversive and sectarian Sikh extremist activity”.
The report, authored by Colin Bloom, an independent faith engagement adviser and appointed by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2019, has recently been made public. Coming as it does in the wake of the series of attacks on the Indian High Commission, by pro-Khalistani extremists, the report’s conclusion that the “UK Government should ensure that unacceptable and extremist behaviours are not inadvertently legitimised by government or parliamentary engagement” is a suggestion that needs to be seriously taken by the PM Rishi Sunak government.
The Bloom Report says that a “small, extremely vocal and aggressive minority of British Sikhs who can be described as pro-Khalistan extremists” is promoting an “ethno-nationalist agenda”, and some extremists are “known to support and incite violence and intimidation in their ambition to establish an independent state called Khalistan.”
It adds that the “subversive, sectarian and discriminatory activities” of such elements don’t reflect the true nature of the majority of British Sikhs, and the “extremist fringe ideology within the pro-Khalistan movement” has led to a division within British Sikh communities. This is relevant as the UK government has seemingly turned a blind eye to the attacks on the Indian High Commission in London.
The findings of the report come at a time when the government of India flagged the activities of Britain-based pro-Khalistan elements to London, especially after violent protests outside the Indian High Commission following the launch of a crackdown in Punjab on radical preacher Amritpal Singh and his followers. The report also points out that certain groups and elements are inciting the separatist agenda in the UK and further stresses on the timeliness of addressing the issue. According to the report, the Sikh communities in the United Kingdom endure compulsion and intimidation from fringe Khalistani forces. These pro-Khalistan groups artificially exaggerate their importance and garner excessive attention by lobbying political entities under the cover of human rights activism.
By way of background it is pertinent to mention that there are approximately 250 gurdwaras in the UK, with the largest able to accommodate over 3,000 worshippers. The earliest gurdwara, Khalsa Jatha, was opened in 1908 in Holland Park, London. In the UK, there is no overarching Sikh hierarchy governing these structures, but there are bodies based in India which have significant influence, the Akaal Takhat and the Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee, based in Amritsar in the Golden Temple complex being the primary organisations. Along with the Jathedar of Akaal Takhat (the most senior Sikh spiritual leader), the Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) acts as the main spiritual and doctrinal centre for the Sikh faith globally and is the custodian of the Sikh Rehat Maryada (code of conduct). While the SGPC cannot compel any British Sikh charity or gurdwara to do anything, the Akaal Takhat can issue edicts (Hukamnama) and advice notes (Sandesh) which have incredible influence across the organised gurdwara community and can ex[1]communicate Sikhs from the religious community.
One of the respondents to the Bloom Review points to the nub of the matter when he states, “Propagating hate and divisions, trying to brainwash youth to cause divisions and hate in India, [is] really sad. [Some Sikh extremist groups] are using places of worship to fund or getting funds under the name of faith and spearheading hate, these types of organisations shouldn’t be allowed to operate in our great country.”
Another respondent notes that “Only minority Sikhs are causing divisions and hate, [the] majority are peace-loving but these minorities are controlling the leading Sikhs temples in England and using funds raised for worship for propagating Khalistan (breaking up of India) and openly do that on social media. All are allowed to express their views and raise concerns of any injustice in India but spreading hate and brainwashing Sikh youth is [a] matter of serious concerns and many Sikh Temples are allowing [organisations to] have youth camps where some are trying to recruit youth to follow their hate, terror and division agenda.”
One could agree with the assertion of funds being collected in the name of the Sikh religion and which finds its way into the channels used to spread hate and incite violence. This “small, extremely vocal and aggressive minority of British Sikhs who can be described as pro-Khalistan extremists”, have been known to support and incite violence and intimidation in their ambition to establish an independent state called Khalistan, states the Bloom Report, adding that the physical borders of which are largely shared with specific parts of the Punjab state in India. Interestingly, this territorial claim does not include the part of the Punjab located in Pakistan. This makes it clear that one of the main controllers of Sikh extremism sits in Pakistan. It is not entirely clear if the motivation for these extremists is faith-based or not.
A more recent phenomenon observed is the use of social media by Sikh extremists and their supporters, which contain alarmingly dangerous and offensive imagery, language and the glorification of extremist behaviour. There are videos that incite violence and hatred towards Muslims, Hindus and even other Sikhs who disagree with the minority extremist ideology. For example, in February 2021, Khalsa Television Ltd, which served Sikh communities in the UK, was fined £50,000 by Ofcom (the UK’s Communications Regulator) for failing to comply with broadcasting rules. The channel aired a music video that indirectly called for violence (including murder) and a discussion programme which provided a platform for views that amounted to indirect calls to action that were likely to encourage or incite crime or lead to disorder.
The discussion programme also included a reference to the proscribed terrorist organisation Babbar Khalsa, which could be taken as legitimising and normalising its aims and actions in the eyes of viewers. In 2022, Ofcom suspended and eventually revoked Khalsa Television Ltd’s broadcasting license following multiple breaches of broadcasting rules: “This was the third time within four years that this licensee had been found in breach of our rules on incitement to crime due to programmes inciting violence.” This involved promoting violence, including murder, as an acceptable and necessary form of action to further the pro-Khalistan cause.
The issue of pro-Khalistani elements operating from the UK’s soil continues to be an irritant in bilateral relations. The earlier this is resolved the better it will be; this however is subject to the UK taking action against such elements including deportation and cancelling of visas. The old practice of turning a blind eye to the Sikh extremist fringe in the UK must be overturned. The significance of the Bloom Report is that it recognises the threat and provides guidance on how to move forward. However, a word of caution here. Past experience is that India has consistently provided legally sound inputs to UK authorities on the activities of pro-Khalistani elements. It is for the UK to not only to act on these inputs but also pro-actively attempt to prevent such elements from raising their head. Thus, unless preventive measures are taken, the problem of pro-Khalistani elements playing to the gallery will not go away. That is the primary lesson to be learnt from the Bloom Report.
Why Xi Jinping's iron grip will only tighten during the upcoming 20th Party congress in China
Alexandr Wang, the founder and CEO of Scale AI, says that the world is entering a “new era of warfare” defined by AI, much like the Cold War was defined by the atomic bomb. The race to develop new military AI capabilities could have profound implications for global development, with the country that can rapidly and effectively integrate AI into warfighting gaining a significant advantage
China has surpassed the United States in military artificial intelligence (AI) spending, according to a testimony received by the US Congress. While the overall AI spending by the United States is higher than that of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the focus on battlefield applications of AI is notably greater in China’s investments, according to Alexandr Wang, the founder and CEO of Scale AI, a software development company.
During a hearing of the House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee on July 18, Wang pointed out that the Chinese military is allocating a much higher percentage of its total expenditures towards AI, approximately 10 times more than the United States. He mentioned that the Chinese military invests between 1 to 2 per cent of its overall budget into AI, while the Department of Defence (DoD) of the United States allocates only 0.1 to 0.2 per cent of its budget for AI.
Even though the US defence budget in fiscal 2022 was around $752 billion, significantly higher than the CCP’s $230 billion, Wang’s estimates suggest that China is spending between $2.2 and $4.4 billion on military AI, compared to the US military’s investment of approximately $874 million.
Wang emphasized that the world is entering a “new era of warfare” defined by AI, much like the Cold War was defined by the atomic bomb. The race to develop new military AI capabilities could have profound implications for global development, with the country that can rapidly and effectively integrate AI into warfighting gaining a significant advantage. He warned that if the United States doesn’t lead in AI, it risks conceding global influence, technological leadership, and democracy to strategic adversaries like China.
Haniyeh Mahmoudian, a global AI ethicist for tech company Data Robot, also testified that AI’s advancements would dramatically change the nature of military conflicts among great powers. She emphasized that the United States needs to not only invest in AI’s advancement but also establish regulatory frameworks to guide its development while ensuring ethical considerations, effectiveness, reliability, and human oversight.
The Subcommittee held its hearing at a time when both the United States and China are heavily investing in various new military technologies, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence (AI).
While many Americans might not fully grasp it, China has been pursuing AI-driven weapons and military platforms for years. Their interests in AI extend beyond just killer robots; they are also investing in AI capabilities for military decision-making and command and control. China’s ultimate aim is “intelligentization,” a transformation of warfare achieved through the widespread integration of AI, automation, and big data.
Chinese companies like 4Paradigm are key players in this endeavour, having been contracted by the CCP’s military wing to develop AI decision-making models and human-machine teaming software for deployment at the company and battalion levels. These programs suggest a clear direction – the restructuring of the Chinese military into a centralized group of officers who oversee AI-enabled autonomous systems engaging in combat.
Similarly, the United States envisions a future where wars are won with the assistance of robots. Gen. Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes that the world’s most powerful armies will predominantly consist of robotic forces within the next decade, and he intends for the United States to achieve that objective. As part of this vision, the Pentagon is experimenting with various unmanned aerial, ground, and undersea vehicles, while also exploring the potential of nonmilitary smart technologies like watches and fitness trackers.
Though still in the early stages, Gen. Milley has been stating since 2016 that the US military plans to have significant robotic ground forces and AI capabilities in place by 2030.
Goldman Sachs’ recent report presents long-term macroeconomic projections until 2075, envisioning India’s ascent as the second-largest economy by that horizon. The study emphasises the pivotal role of emerging markets, remarkably dynamic Asian powerhouses, exhibiting higher growth rates vis-à-vis developed economies. Projections indicate that China is poised to overtake the United States in economic size around 2035. Despite an anticipated deceleration in global growth due to demographic constraints in trend, emerging markets are foreseen to sustain their upward trajectory. However, it is imperative to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties and risks intrinsic in long-term forecasting while comprehending prevailing macroeconomic dynamics shaping the global economy. These projections offer invaluable insights into the evolving economic landscape, yet prudence must be exercised given the lingering uncertainties ... A special report by Dr Maheep
Goldman Sachs, the world’s second-largest investment banking corporation, published a report in early July with a conjecture that India may become the second-largest economy in the world by 2075. Goldman Sachs Research launched its first long-term projections for the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) almost 20 years ago. They have since expanded those estimates in 2011 to include more countries. Their latest report published an updated version of those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075.
Global population control is a necessary condition for long-term environmental sustainability. But an ageing population which is growing more slowly will have to cope with rising healthcare and retirement costs. The number of countries that face a serious economic challenge from a greying population is likely to consistently increase in the coming decades.
Emerging economies, led by powerhouses in Asia, are growing faster than developed ones, while expansion in real (inflation-adjusted) global GDP slows. Their share of the world economy is likely to rise, and their incomes are expected to slowly accumulate toward those of richer countries. China may overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035 while India is expected to be the world’s second-largest economy by 2075.
The report makes four significant predictions for the global economy. First, it forecasts a slowdown in global growth, partly due to weaker population growth. However, emerging markets, especially Asian powerhouses, will continue to experience growth. Third, the report suggests that the US economy may also slow down in the long run. Finally, it anticipates a decline in global wealth inequality between countries, but a rise in inequality within countries. These predictions shed light on the changing dynamics of the global economic landscape, urging us to carefully consider the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
During the period spanning the early 2000s to the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), global growth exhibited exceptional robustness, particularly evident in emerging markets (EM). This surge in economic activity was significantly fuelled by the rapid process of globalization. Interestingly, while the GFC inflicted recessions upon developed economies, the majority of emerging markets displayed remarkable resilience in weathering the crisis. In fact, the initial set of Goldman Sachs’ BRIC projections, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, and China, somewhat underestimated the pace of convergence within emerging markets during this decade. It is important to note that the impressive growth trajectory observed in emerging markets is a more recent phenomenon. Starting from the mid-1990s, the GDP growth of emerging markets began consistently surpassing that of developed markets (DM) that signifies a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape. This transition marked a turning point, catapulting emerging markets into the forefront of the global economic narrative.
Given the outsized role that Asian economies have played in the EM convergence story, it is tempting to claim that the narrative of EM convergence is primarily, or exclusively, a story of Asia’s convergence. In reality, convergence has become more generalised across EMs since the turn of the century.
The 2000s were marked by strong average GDP per capita growth and income convergence between emerging markets and developed economies. While GDP per capita growth declined in the US and Western Europe, it was more than offset by growth in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and, in particular, in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Growth in East Asian economies stayed strong. Over the decade prior to COVID (2010-19), there was a slump in average GDP per capita growth in DM and EM economies alike. Nonetheless, in contrast to the pre-2000 period, growth was distinctly faster in relatively poor EM economies than in relatively rich DM economies.
The two noteworthy aspects mentioned hold substantial implications for the future economic landscape. Firstly, over the past decade, there has been a widespread deceleration in economic growth that has affected both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM) alike. This general slowdown has posed challenges to economies across the spectrum that indicates a broader trend of reduced growth rates in the global arena. Secondly, despite this overarching deceleration, the process of convergence between emerging markets and developed markets has largely endured. This phenomenon signifies that, despite the slowdown, emerging markets continue to exhibit a trajectory of catching up and converging with the more advanced developed economies. The resilience of this convergence process suggests a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape, with emerging markets steadily narrowing the gap and moving closer towards the economic standards set by developed counterparts.
The Punjab Regiment_Marching_Contingent_passes_through_the_Rajpath,_on_the_occasion_of_the_69th_Republic_Day_Parade_2018,_in_New_Delhi_on_January_26,_2018
Despite incorporating the lessons from past performance, the risks involved in projecting far into the future remain. The report has to be seen less as a forecast and more as a method of indicating broad global dynamics and their long-term implications. Nevertheless, there is significant value in pinning down the main drivers of growth, gathering all the information, and incorporating that information into a coherent model.
The report anticipates that China will overtake the US economy as the world’s largest economy around 2035. This is around 10 years later than their 2011 projections, primarily reflecting the downward revisions they have made to Chinese potential growth. The project also that in 2050, the world’s five largest economies will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany. Of particular significance, India is slated to secure the third spot, underscoring its robust growth potential and ascent on the global economic stage. Moreover, Indonesia is expected to ascend, potentially displacing Brazil and Russia among the ranks of the largest emerging markets (EMs) over this horizon. These projections offer keen insights into the shifting economic tides, and India’s sustained rise to the third position marks a milestone in the evolving economic landscape.
Extending these projections to 2075 reveals a momentous shift in the global economic landscape, with China, India, and the US emerging as the three largest economies. Remarkably, India is projected to surpass the US and secure the second position, an extraordinary feat reflecting its sustained growth trajectory. However, it is noteworthy that the US is anticipated to maintain a higher potential GDP growth rate compared to China, owing to its favourable demographic outlook. Moreover, the prospect of rapid population growth in countries such as Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt suggests the potential for these economies to attain considerable size and prominence on the world stage, provided appropriate policies and institutions are in place. As we peer into the horizon, these projections offer a captivating glimpse of the evolving economic order and India’s ascent to the second position, signalling its potential to become a pivotal player in the global economic landscape by 2075.
Elaborating on the 2075 projections, the report further indicates that there will be a large gap between the largest three economies (China, India and the US) and all other economies. Thus, although Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan are projected to be fourth, fifth, and sixth in the 2075 GDP rankings, each of them are projected to be smaller than one-third of the size of China, India and the US.
As we look ahead to 2075, the projections indicate that both the Chinese and Indian economies are poised to surpass the United States in size. However, it is crucial to recognize that despite their economic expansion, the US is projected to maintain a substantial lead in terms of wealth, being more than twice as affluent as both China and India. Additionally, the wealth disparity between the US and countries like Nigeria and Pakistan is expected to be even more pronounced, with the US being five times richer than these nations.
Furthermore, the projections reveal an overall trend of slowing growth in most economies, primarily attributable to diminishing contributions from labour force growth. This deceleration is particularly noteworthy in China that implies a shift in its economic dynamics. Moreover, Brazil and South Africa, which have experienced lacklustre economic performance over the past decade or so, may witness a partial reversal of fortunes as negative productivity momentum diminishes over time.
India’s growth and resilience emerge as significant highlights amidst these projections. While it is expected to become the second-largest economy of the world by 2075, its trajectory is distinct from that of China, as its potential GDP growth remains more resilient due to a favourable demographic outlook. This resilience positions India as a crucial player in the future global economic landscape and emphasizes the importance of sound demographic and productivity policies in shaping economic fortunes. As economies adapt to changing circumstances, comprehensive analysis becomes indispensable in navigating the intricacies of long-term economic projections.
(Dr Maheep is a Leading Expert in International Relations. He has an avid interest in the political economy of India)
The World Health Organisation reported 53 attacks on healthcare in Sudan since April, which led to 11 deaths and dozens of injuries…reports Asian Lite News
UN humanitarians have warned that because fighting in Sudan disrupts public health operations, diseases that had been under control before the conflict erupted are now increasing.
“The diseases include malaria, measles, dengue and acute watery diarrhoea,” the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said on Thursday.
“As the rainy season begins, these outbreaks are likely to claim more lives unless urgent action is taken to control their spread.”
The office added there are shortages of crucial medicine and medical supplies reported in some states, despite health partners’ efforts. Health facilities and workers in Sudan continue to be targeted, OCHA said.
The World Health Organisation reported 53 attacks on healthcare in Sudan since April, which led to 11 deaths and dozens of injuries.
Almost 70,000 people enter Ethiopia from Sudan
The number of people entering Ethiopia from the violence-hit Sudan is nearing 70,000, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said.
The IOM said in its latest situation update that the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan has forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee to neighboring countries, reports Xinhua news agency.
Figures from the UN migration agency indicate that as of July 23, more than 69,000 people have arrived in Ethiopia through multiple border crossing points in the East African country’s Amhara, Benishangul Gumz and Gambella regions.
The IOM said onward transportation is one of the key needs and gaps, which is further compounded by heavy rains that have made the conditions and terrains very difficult for aid workers to provide timely support.
Amid the continued number of people crossing into Ethiopia, the IOM stressed that inadequate access to life-saving services including food, non-food items, water and sanitation, as well as health services, has remained a challenge.
Earlier this week, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairssaid among the total arrivals, the number of Ethiopian returnees account for about 49 per cent while Sudanese nationals make up 30 per cent.
Brutal fighting erupted in Khartoum on April 15 and swiftly escalated in different parts of the country.
The ongoing fighting is pitting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group.
Both sides have accused each other of initiating the conflict.
Deep differences had emerged between the SAF and the RSF, particularly regarding the latter’s integration into the army as stipulated in a framework agreement signed between military and civilian leaders on December 5, 2022.
The conflict has so far killed more than 3,000 people and injured over 6,000 others.
Russia-Africa Summit Rosoboronexport, part of the Russian state-owned technology conglomerate Rostec, will be demonstrating tools developed and tested in Russia to counter terrorism…reports Asian Lite News
As Russia continues to make deep inroads into Africa, several leading arms exporters from the country will be showcasing a wide range of their latest counterterrorism equipment and intelligent digital technologies at the second Russia-Africa Summit that begins in Saint Petersburg from Thursday.
The heads of states, governments and representatives of the vast majority of countries on the African continent, as well as regional associations and organisations, will be participating in the two-day Second Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, the largest-scale event in Russian–African relations.
With many of these African nations currently engulfed by violence, chaos, conflict and battling deadly terrorist groups at the same time, Moscow is looking at providing them with not just political, trade, economic, scientific, technical and humanitarian but also substantial military support.
“We will continue to assist our African partners in every possible way in strengthening national and cultural sovereignty, in more active participation in resolving regional and global issues,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday.
The Russian state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport admitted that it saw an “extremely high prolonged conversion” from the talks held during the summit’s first edition held in Sochi in October 2019 which saw the participation of 45 countries from the continent.
“Since 2019 to the present, we have signed over 150 contract documents with African partners and increased our order book by more than $10 billion. During this time, we have expanded our presence adding five new countries on the continent,” said Alexander Mikheev, Director General of Rosoboronexport in a statement ahead of the Saint Petersburg event.
Russia-Africa Summit Rosoboronexport, part of the Russian state-owned technology conglomerate Rostec, will be demonstrating tools developed and tested in Russia to counter terrorism, organised crime, cyber threats, protect the constitutional system and public order, provide border and critical facility security and surveillance.
As part of their outdoor exhibits, a number of Russian companies will showcase military, dual-use and civilian products designed to counter various security threats that are most in demand on the African continent.
On display would be the Orion reconnaissance/strike UAV, Orlan-10E and Orlan-30 reconnaissance UAVs, Kub-E loitering munition and other battle-proven UAV systems.
Counter-UAV systems, including RB-504P-E, Serp-VS5 and Saphir, will also be exhibited along with the drones while Spartak, Tiger-Raid and Strela MRAP vehicles will be displayed in the armoured combat vehicles zone.
Addressing the main challenges to the global African security architecture, Russian companies will show IT solutions tested in the domestic market and adapted for use in African countries. These include a comprehensive Smart City project, a national-level cyber security platform, as well as internet monitoring, information protection and legal data interception systems.
Russian Helicopters, another Rostec company, will put on display its helicopters having high export potential, including Mi-8MTV-1 in the medical version, Mi-171E and Mi-38 in VIP configuration, Ansat and the first Russian Mi-171A3 offshore helicopter.
Rostec’s experience in creating the first air ambulance service on the African continent – 18 Russian-made Ansat helicopters intented for Zimbabwe – will also be presented during the forum.
Meanwhile, Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom, which is a general partner of the second edition of the summit, will be signing a set of bilateral documents on current projects and prospects for implementation of nuclear solutions on the continent. This includes both power and non-power applications of nuclear technologies, as well as potential areas for cooperation.
“Discussion of the joint nuclear solutions, particularly in the area of nuclear power engineering, nuclear medicine, food security assurance, is planned within the framework of the business programme at the forum,” said a Rosatom statement.
Advanced solutions on the basis of nuclear technologies proposed for implementation in the African countries will be presented by Rosatom while African delegation tours to Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant, Baltic Shipyard and Dalur uranium facility have also been planned.
EU flags are seen outside the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, Jan. 6, 2023.(Xinhua/Zheng Huansong/IANS)
The US and former colonial power France view Niger as a crucial partner in addressing security issues in the region…reports Asian Lite News
The European Union (EU) has decided to cut off financial support to Niger following the military coup there and in a similar reaction, the African Union has also called on the Nigerien military to “return to their barracks and restore constitutional authority,” Al Jazeera reported.
Josep Borrell, the head of the EU’s foreign policy, said in a statement on Saturday that “In addition to the immediate cessation of budget support, all cooperation actions in the domain of security are suspended indefinitely with immediate effect.” This comes after General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the chief of Niger’s presidential guard, declared himself the head of a transitional government on Friday this week straight after his soldiers detained President Mohamed Bazoum on Wednesday.
Borrell further said in his statement that the coup leaders should be held accountable for ensuring the safety of the president and his family.
He also stated that Bazoum “remains the only legitimate president of Niger.
The EU has set out 503 million euros ($554 million) from its budget, according to its website, to enhance Niger’s governance, education, and sustainable growth between 2021 and 2024, Al Jazeera reported.
Meanwhile, the African Union asked that the Nigerian military return to their barracks.
Following a meeting on the Niger coup on Friday, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council issued a declaration demanding that the military troops “immediately and unconditionally return to their barracks and restore constitutional authority, within a maximum of fifteen (15) days, according to Al Jazeera.
The group said that it “condemns in the strongest terms possible” the overthrow of the duly-elected government.
Prior to the swearing-in of the then-newly elected Bazoum in March 2021, when forces attempted to take over the presidential palace, Tchiani spearheaded the resistance.
The first peaceful transfer of power since Niger’s independence from France in 1960, was the pro-West Bazoum election.
The US and former colonial power France view Niger as a crucial partner in addressing security issues in the region. Niger borders seven African nations, including Libya, Chad, and Nigeria.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres tweeted, “I condemn in the strongest terms any effort to seize power by force and to undermine democratic governance, peace & stability in Niger. The @UN stands by the Government and the people of Niger.”
‘US assistance to Niger in clear jeopardy’
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that if the situation continues the US assistance to Niger is “in jeopardy,” The Hill reported.
Delivering his remarks at a press conference in Brisbane, Australia, the US State Secretary Antony Blinken said, “Our economic and security partnership with Niger – which is significant, hundreds of millions of dollars — depends on the continuation of the democratic governance and constitutional order that has been disrupted by the actions in the last few days.” “So that assistance, that support, is in clear jeopardy as a result of these actions, which is another reason why they need to be immediately reversed,” Blinken added, according to The Hill.
For the negotiations, which will also centre on an agreement to give Australia a fleet of submarines powered by US nuclear technology, Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Brisbane, Australia, late on Friday.
Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday spoke to Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum and former president Mahamadou Issoufou, saying the US will continue to work to ensure full restoration of democratic rule in Niger.
“Secretary Blinken underscored that the United States will continue to work to ensure the full restoration of constitutional order and democratic rule in Niger,” US State Department said in an official statement.
Blinken further stressed the importance of his continuing leadership in Niamey. “The Secretary reiterated to President Bazoum the United States’ unflagging support and emphasized the importance of his continuing leadership in Niamey,” the statement added.
He further praised Bazoum’s role in promoting security not only in Niger but the wider West Africa region.
France cuts off financial support
France has cut off financial support to Niger after a coup toppled the West African country’s democratically elected president, CNN reported.
France in a statement called for the “immediate return to the Nigerien constitutional order” adding to the mounting international pressure on the coup plotters. The move came shortly after the European Union suspended all security cooperation to Niger on Saturday and announced that it would no longer provide financial support. Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries and receives hundreds of millions of dollars each year in assistance, as per CNN.
A general who leads the country’s presidential guard, Abdourahamane Tiani, was declared the country’s new leader after President Mohamed Bazoum was detained earlier this week.
EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borell said: “This unacceptable attack on the integrity of Niger’s republican institutions will not remain without consequences for the partnership and cooperation between the European Union and Niger, in all its various aspects.”
On Space collaboration, the EAM said India signed the Artemis Accords and promoted stronger ISRO-NASA collaboration. …reports Asian Lite News
The collaboration between India and US in Micron Technology, Lam Research and Applied Materials deals with New Delhi extended to a new initiative and additional domains and can be expected to grow steadily, External Affairs Minister said at the SemiconIndia Conference on Sunday.
Jaishankar said that during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US, specific commitments were made with regard to Micron Technology, Lam Research and Applied Materials, and they have been the subject of deliberations as well. “During Prime Minister Modi’s State visit to the United States in June 2023, semiconductors were also a focus of the talks with President Biden and his team. As you would be aware, the two leaders chaired a technology round-table with the brand names of the industry. The Joint Statement highlighted this aspect of our cooperation. Three US companies – Micron Technology, Lam Research and Applied Materials – made specific commitments that have been the subject of your deliberations as well. It is essential that these developments are viewed from the larger perspective of India and the United States building a technology partnership for the future,” Jaishankar said.
“India’s entry as the latest member of the Minerals Security Partnership is worth noting, given the importance today of diversifying and securing supply chains in that area. Similarly, cooperation between the two countries has been a visible tailwind in the sphere of advanced telecommunications. Even as India’s 5G rollout starts to gather momentum, it is noteworthy to seek Bharat 6G and the American NextG Alliance co-lead research. Launching Open RAN deployments and participating in the US Rip and Replace Programme is also worth noting. This collaboration today extends to new initiatives and additional domains and can be expected to grow steadily,” he added.
On Space collaboration, the EAM said India signed the Artemis Accords and promoted stronger ISRO-NASA collaboration. The Innovation Handshake between Indian entities and the National Science Foundation (NSF) holds much promise. So too does the INDUS-X innovation bridge in defence technologies.
Remembering the May meeting, jaishankar said the QUAD group leaders agreed at their meeting in Hiroshima on the Principles on Critical and Emerging Technology Standards. This inter-alia supported industry-led, consensus-based multi-stakeholder approaches.
“It (Principles on Critical and Emerging Technology Standards) endorsed technology standards that promote interoperability, competition, inclusiveness and innovation. The intent was to foster technology standards that support safety, security and resilience. These voluntary principles were meant to assist governments and organizations to develop appropriate standards and it is clearly Quad’s expectation that many other nations would join them in that regard,” he added.
He also invoked his meeting with Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, saying that both sides concluded a Memorandum of Cooperation on Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership which is expected to promote semiconductor design, manufacturing, equipment research, talent development and industrial resilience.
On Critical and Emerging Technologies or iCET, Jaishankar said it is an intrinsic element of the knowledge economy that is steadily unfolding and one of its primary characteristics is that it embeds technologies in a manner that profoundly influences all aspects of our lives.
He said, “The depiction of a Chip War may be somewhat overstated, but it has more than a fundamental kernel of truth. To a considerable extent, concerns in the iCET field are influenced by how market shares and production dominance was leveraged in other areas.”
“Technology trade is not just trade; it is as much as about political science. The truth is that we are seeing the re-emergence of export controls as a response to strategic assertions of economic strength. How to do business needs to be tempered with where and with whom to do it,” he added. (ANI)
This arrest came as a part of the high-profile probe into the funds that Nicolas Petro allegedly collected during last year’s election campaign..reports Asian Lite News
The son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro was arrested on the charges of money laundering and illicit enrichment, Al Jazeera reported.
This arrest came as a part of the high-profile probe into the funds that Nicolas Petro allegedly collected during last year’s election campaign In a statement, the chief prosecutor’s office said Petro and his ex-wife Daysuris Vazquez were taken into custody on orders of a court in Bogota at about 6 am (local time) on Saturday.
The office said once produced before a judge, prosecutors would seek their provisional detention as it investigates the two over allegations of money laundering, reported Al Jazeera.
Talking about the case, President Petro said he would not interfere with the probe.
“As an individual and father, it pains me to see so much self-destruction and one of my sons going to jail,” Petro wrote on social media.
“As president of the republic, I’ve assured the chief prosecutor’s office that it will have all of the guarantees so it can proceed according to the law,” he added.
He tweeted further that as a person and as a father, so much self-destruction hurts him a lot and the fact that one of his sons goes to jail. He also ensured that as a President, the prosecution has all the guarantees on my part to proceed in accordance with the law.
“I wish my son luck and strength. May these events forge your character and may you reflect on your own mistakes,” the Colombian President said in a tweet.
The arrest of Nicolas Petro is a major blow to the government, which has been buffeted by conservative attacks and struggled to maintain bipartisan support for Colombia in the United States, a key ally, reported Al Jazeera.
Earlier, last month, Gustavo Petro won the election, according to preliminary results, setting the third-largest nation in Latin America on a radically new path, New York Times reported.
“Colombians, today the majority of citizens have chosen the other candidate,” he told his supporters in Bucaramanga, adding, “As I said during the campaign, I accept the results of this election.” (ANI)
