As the Ukraine conflict enters its 20th month with no clear advantage for any side and no sign of a negotiated resolution, the ongoing stalemate is starting to affect a key pillar of Ukrainian support: the European Union….writes Vikas Datta
Wars are costly, both economically and socially, with the impact not only on the belligerents but, as the fighting drags on, also on their overt and covert supporters. Outside bankrolling soon shrinks as fatigue and financial constraints kick in. The Ukraine conflict is a prime example.
Now, in its 20th month, and no indications of any side gaining an edge, leave alone winning decisively, and no negotiated end on the horizon, the stalemate is causing a blowback in one key bastion of Ukrainian supporters – the European Union.
While most of the European Union was united in enforcing package after package of harsh sanctions on Russia, slashing trade and imports, especially of fuels – despite some concerns in some members over the economic impact, supplying aid and arms to Ukraine, and welcoming new members to NATO, there was a major outlier or two.
While Serbia, which is not in the EU or NATO yet, remained neutral given its traditional ties to Russia, even as its other Slavic brethren in the Balkans came out against Moscow, there were other EU/NATO members that did not fully toe the EU line.
Turkey, which is a key member of NATO but smarting over its EU accession bid being stalled, is still playing its own independent hand with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trying to mediate a negotiated solution in March 2022, and then, presiding over the Black Sea grain deal – since discontinued. He is still the only major European leader still in contact with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, as Sweden and Finland sought to join NATO raising the “Russian threat”, the former did not find the process easy. With the process requiring unanimity, Hungary and Turkey refused to ratify Stockholm’s membership and though the latter did soften its stand somewhat, Budapest is still not amenable.
Hungary also steadfastly refused to ship arms – or even allow their transit over its territory – and stood up firmly against any attempts to sanction sectors like Russian nuclear technology which would affect it.
It also vocally raised the suppression of rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, particularly against the backdrop of the law axing languages of minority elements of the populace.
Now, it has been joined by neighbouring Slovakia, which was a diligent provider of arms to Ukraine, but a change of regime has led it has led it to suspend shipments, in line with the poll winner’s stated policy.
Former Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose SMER-SD defeated the ruling Centre-left in Sunday’s elections and is poised to gain power once it stitches up a coalition, has told journalists that “Slovakia and the people of Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine” and if his party successfully forms a government, it would still be open to helping Ukraine, but only in a humanitarian way.
On the other hand, Poland, which was a staunch supporter of Ukraine, has now become a bitter critic over a spat on the issue of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural produce imports. As the issue snowballed, a furious Poland said it will not send any more weapons to Ukraine but later clarified that it would not send “modern weapons”.
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, who skipped a meeting of his EU counterparts in Kiev earlier this week and sent his deputy instead, noted that it will take a “titanic effort” to mend the rift between Warsaw and Kiev.
Relations between the two neighbours are “entering a period of downturn and my absence is partly an expression of this”, he had said.
Rau, in an interview to a Polish newspaper, said that bilateral ties depend on “three dimensions” – geopolitics, national interests, and domestic support, and while the first element was well in place, the other two cannot be ignored.
As the war continues, and upends the political spectrum of Europe – the left-liberals like Germany’s Greens being the most in support of supporting Kiev and the conservative/populists trying to place national interests ahead, the possibility of other dissenters cropping up cannot be forestalled.
The foremost and incisive critique of the EU stand was made by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who contended that many Asian, Latin American, and African countries cannot comprehend why the conflict continues and are bemused by EU’s double standards.
“They don’t understand, for example, how every time there’s a war outside Europe, the EU looks down from a moral high ground and calls for peace, negotiations and an immediate end to the violence. But when the war is in Europe, the EU fuels the conflict and supplies weapons,” he said in an interview to a Hungarian newspaper.
Szijjarto added that anyone who refuses to supply arms to Kiev or share the EU’s approach to the crisis “is immediately labeled a spy for Moscow, a friend of Putin, and a propagandist for the Russians”.
The rest of the world also “doesn’t understand why Europe has globalised this conflict. They don’t understand why there is a war in Europe, but it is Asians, Latin Americans, and Africans that have to pay the price for it with skyrocketing inflation, high energy prices, or food insecurity”, he said.
If such sentiment spreads, Kiev may be in for tough times.