Month: December 2024

 

According to a January US Department of Defense notice, plans to deploy American nuclear weapons to RAF Lakenheath have progressed and the document states the work was in preparation for the base’s “upcoming nuclear mission”  

A British former UFO hunter has said he does not “rule out” recent drone incursions over RAF bases in England being connected to Russia and China and nuclear weapons. Unidentified drones were spotted in November over three airbases in the east of England that are used by the US air force (USAF). 

“Small unmanned aerial systems” were seen between 20 and 22 November over RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk and RAF Feltwell in Norfolk. The USAF, which occupies the bases, could not confirm if the drones were hostile. 

According to a January US Department of Defense (DoD) notice, plans to deploy American nuclear weapons to RAF Lakenheath have progressed. The document states the work was in preparation for the base’s “upcoming nuclear mission”. 

“I don’t rule out the activity being connected with nuclear weapons,” said Nick Pope, a former Ministry of Defence official who headed the UFO desk in Whitehall from 1991 to 1994. 

“Adversaries (probably Russia or China) might use drones to gather data on this, in parallel with using other intelligence-gathering strategies. But they’d be unlikely to risk an intelligence officer (either declared, let alone a highly prized illegal) on something like this.” 

Pope thinks that if foreign adversaries were responsible, they might use third parties, perhaps by supplying local drone hobbyists with some equipment. 

“Perhaps convincing them they’d be working for an independent news agency. Anti-nuclear groups or individual activists might also be potential culprits in this scenario.” 

November’s incursions wouldn’t be the first time unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP, the military’s preferred acronym for unidentified flying objects or UFOs) have poked around RAF airbases housing nuclear weapons. 

On Boxing Day 1980, United States airmen spotted strange objects flying over Rendlesham forest on the doorstep of RAF Bentwaters in Suffolk, a former airbase used by the US air force. 

Charles Halt, the on-base commander at the time, said he saw crafts shooting down beams of light to the ground and heard over his radio that “the beams went down into the weapons storage area”. Pope said that, unlike other UFO tales, eyewitness reports from Rendlesham were backed up by hard evidence. “It’s the perfect storm of a UFO case. It’s multiple witnesses, including the military. It’s sightings over three consecutive nights. 

“It’s physical evidence in terms of radar, radioactivity, ground trace indentations, burn marks, scorch marks. It’s a case where we have declassified and released documents, which you can see on the National Archives and the Ministry of Defence website. So, unlike a lot of UFO documents floating around, there’s no debate about their provenance.” 

Former Pentagon officials such as Luis Elizondo, who claimed to have led the US government’s UFO hunting office, claim there is a strong correlation between UFO sightings and nuclear weapons. 

Over the years, dozens of military personnel have witnessed bizarre crafts hovering over bases housing humanity’s most devastating weapons. In one alarming incident in 1966, airmen saw a UFO flying over Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. 

They claimed that as the craft was hovering above Minot, its nuclear weapons suddenly went live, then deactivated when the UFO disappeared. The following year, a similar fright occurred at an air force base in Montana. 

Witnesses there claimed they saw a glowing red oval-shaped craft floating over its missile silos before all 10 of their nuclear warheads were disabled. 

However, Pope said the most likely possibility was that the sightings were of commercial drones. “Perhaps some are operated by plane spotters but as most of these people abide by CAA rules on drone operation, it’s more likely to be the work of irresponsible hobbyists,” said Pope. 

Pope added that Lord Coaker’s statement to parliament that the incursions were being treated as a criminal investigation, with the aim of prosecutions, supported his hypothesis. 

“While adversary activity can’t be ruled out – not least because the incursions came to light at around the same time that Ukraine launched UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike the Kursk region in Russia – there’s currently no evidence of this.” 

The sightings could also result from people confusing prosaic items like Chinese lanterns, road flares or bright stars with UFOs. Sirius is often confused by the public with a UFO. 

An MoD spokesperson said: “We take threats seriously and maintain robust measures at defence sites. This includes counter-drone security capabilities. We won’t comment further on security procedures.” 

A spokesperson for US air forces in Europe said: “We can confirm that small unmanned aerial systems [UASs] were spotted in the vicinity of and over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Feltwell between 20 and 22 November. The number of UASs fluctuated and they ranged in size [and] configuration. 

“The UASs were actively monitored and installation leaders determined that none of the incursions impacted base residents or critical infrastructure. 

“To protect operational security, we do not discuss our specific force protection measures but retain the right to protect the installation. We continue to monitor our airspace and are working with host-nation authorities and mission partners to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities and assets.” 

A spokesperson for the British Ministry of Defence said: “We take threats seriously and maintain robust measures at defence sites. This includes counter-drone security capabilities. 

“We won’t comment further on security procedures.” 

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Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions also increased by 17 percent in October to 111,100 relative to September..reports Asian Lite News

Transactions in the UK residential property hit over 100,000 in October, the highest since November 2022, as borrower confidence grew despite warnings over the impact of the Budget. According to HMRC’s monthly data, residential transactions increased by 10 per cent from 91,690 in September to 100,410 in October. 

Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions also increased by 17 percent in October to 111,100 relative to September. This comes after the highly anticipated Autumn Budget last month which included the announcement of more than £5bn of investment over 2025-2026 to deliver the government’s ambitious house-building programme. 

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country said that October figures signalled “strong momentum in the housing market despite some caution following the Autumn Budget”. While Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank explained that reason behind the drive was “the widespread availability of sub-4 per cent mortgages and a sense the Budget would be better than feared”. 

However, he pointed out that “the risk facing buyers and sellers now is whether Labour’s economic plans will work.” Following the Budget, it’s almost impossible to get a sub-4 per cent mortgage and if there is extended upwards pressure on unemployment, inflation and borrowing costs, a period of stagflation could put downwards pressure on house prices and transaction volumes 

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance stated that “the confidence in the market is promising”. But he pointed out that the “full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around Spring next year”. 

He noted that a further cut in interest rates would help the market stay “productive and confident.” Another factor experts highlighted is the upcoming hike in Stamp Duty, which the government revealed last month, as the amount of tax people pay when buying their second home will increase. 

The aim behind the hike is to provide support for first-time buyers with second-time buyers set to pay five per cont tax on homes worth up to £250,000, up from three per cent. Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark noted that “in England and Northern Ireland especially, the trend of increasing house transactions is likely set to continue as Stamp Duty increases loom from April 2025”. 

“As we approach 2025, the property market is poised to remain steady with a cautious but optimistic outlook. External factors, including government policies and the broader economy, will shape the market’s trajectory,” Stevenson added. 

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Investment plans and employment intentions were the weakest since May 2020 last month…reports Asian Lite News

Britain’s Institute of Directors said on Sunday that optimism among its members had fallen to the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, following tax rises in finance minister Rachel Reeves’ first budget on Oct. 30. 

Investment plans and employment intentions were the weakest since May 2020 last month, while a gauge of business leaders’ optimism sank to its lowest since April 2020 at -65, down from -52 in October. 

“As businesses continue to absorb the consequences of the Budget for their business plans, confidence has continued to plummet,” IoD Chief Economist Anna Leach said. 

“Far from fixing the foundations, the Budget has undermined them, damaging the private sector’s ability to invest in their businesses and their workforces,” she added. 

The IoD report adds to a chorus of complaints by businesses since the budget and other signs of an economic slowdown. 

Last week Reeves promised the Confederation of British Industry that she would not be “coming back with more borrowing or more taxes” at future budgets. 

Reeves announced 40 billion pounds ($51 billion) of tax rises at the budget, including a 25 billion pound increase in employers’ annual social security contributions. 

Labour had only pointed to around 8 billion pounds of tax rises before the election and Reeves blamed the extra increases in large part on what she said was an unexpectedly poor fiscal legacy left by the previous Conservative government. 

A planned tightening of employment laws was also likely to increase costs for employers, the IoD said. 

The IoD survey took place between Nov. 15 and Nov. 27 and was based on 601 responses, mostly from small businesses. 

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Asked at a press conference about the likely impact of a second Trump presidency, Bailey repeated his stance that he wanted to see the policies the Trump administration will pursue…reports Asian Lite News

The Bank of England warned on Friday that higher trade barriers could hit global growth and feed uncertainty about inflation, potentially causing volatility in financial markets and pushing up borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. 

Without specifically referring to the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election, the BoE said the financial system could also be impacted by disruption to cross-border capital flows and a reduced ability to diversify risk. 

“A reduction in the degree of international policy cooperation could hinder progress by authorities in improving the resilience of the financial system and its ability to absorb future shocks,” the BoE said in a half-yearly report on the financial system. 

Asked at a press conference about the likely impact of a second Trump presidency, Bailey repeated his stance that he wanted to see the policies the Trump administration will pursue. 

“We are seeing increased risk of global fragmentation. But I would say this, that there are quite a lot of causes of that and I don’t think it’s right to pin it on one particular event.” 

While UK households, businesses and banks appeared to be in good shape, the BoE report said, Britain’s financial sector faced risks that were “particularly relevant” given the openness of the UK economy. 

Other threats included high levels of public debt in many economies around the world. “Uncertainty around, and risks to, the outlook have increased,” the report said. 

Bailey pushed back against a complaint from new finance minister Rachel Reeves that British regulators had inadvertently damaged the economy by taking too tough a stance on risk-taking in the financial sector. 

“Put simply, there is not a trade-off between financial stability and growth. This is a fundamental point,” he said. 

But he said there were choices about how to apply rules and he said the BoE’s announcement on Friday that it would conduct full tests on the health of UK banks once every two years, and no longer annually, was an example of how to help competitiveness in the sector. 

Bailey also stressed the importance of minimum international financial standards in the wake of the Nov. 5 U.S. election. The BoE said it continued to judge that valuations and risk premia in financial markets were “vulnerable to a sharp correction” due to the risks to growth and inflation and uncertainty about interest rates. 

“Such a correction could be amplified by long-standing vulnerabilities in market-based finance” and could push up borrowing costs for UK households and businesses, it warned. The BoE said its latest tests of the resilience of UK banks showed they were well capitalised with high levels of liquidity. 

But it said non-bank financial institutions such as hedge funds remained vulnerable to a sudden financial shock and might have to undertake a fire sale of assets such as British corporate bonds in this scenario. 

Going forward, the central bank plans to carry out full stress tests once every two years starting in 2025, reducing the administrative strain on lenders and allowing the BoE to focus on other potential financial risks. Less detailed desk-based stress tests would be conducted by the BoE, when needed, in the intervening years. 

The BoE held its countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), or “rainy day” capital requirement for banks that can be drawn on in stressed times, at its neutral setting of 2%. 

The mortgage payments of half of UK homeowners will rise over the next three years, leaving 4.4 million households facing extra pressure on their finances, the Bank of England has said. 

The Bank’s financial policy committee said this would include £500-a-month increases for the mortgages of about 420,000 households. 

The committee found that more than a third of borrowers – about 37% – had so far been shielded from rises to interest rates because they fixed their mortgages before increases began in the second half of 2021. 

About 31% of all mortgage holders, or 2.7 million households, are expected to refinance on to a rate of more than 3% for the first time before the end of 2027. 

That includes up to 1.5 million households, who will be forced to roll on to higher mortgages for a second time since interest rates started rising three years ago. 

In its financial stability report, the Bank’s committee said this would lead to a 22% increase in monthly payments, on average, adding about £146 to the typical bill. However, that is slightly lower than previous forecasts in June, which had pointed to a £180 increase. 

In total, the mortgage payments of 50% of mortgage holders will increase over the next three years, with 23% seeing no change and 27% experiencing a fall in payments. 

Policymakers at the Bank announced a quarter-point cut in interest rates to 4.75% earlier this month, raising hopes that lower rates would ease the burden on households in the longer term. 

However, the Bank warned that conditions for poorer households had worsened. “Pressures on renters and lower-income households continue. Savings buffers have decreased for lower-income households and the share of renters who have fallen behind on payments has risen slightly,” it said. 

Separately, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said uncertainty around the global economic outlook had increased. “Geopolitical risk remains elevated, and as we are an open economy with a large financial sector, these risks are particularly relevant to UK financial stability,” he said. 

Policymakers also released the results of their first stress test into the shadow banking sector. It found that hedge funds, pension funds and other companies in the largely unregulated sector were at risk of amplifying market shocks and triggering a £17bn asset sell-off. 

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