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US employment moderates along with wage growth

Average hourly earnings are projected to have climbed 3.9 per cent from June of last year, the smallest annual advance in three years…reports Asian Lite News

US employers probably tempered their hiring while wage growth moderated in June, another favourable development for Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues seeking more confirmation that inflation is slowing.

Payrolls in the world’s largest economy are projected to have increased by about 190,000, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Friday’s report. That’s a step down from the surprisingly robust 272,000 gain in May. The jobless rate probably held at 4 per cent.

Average hourly earnings are projected to have climbed 3.9 per cent from June of last year, the smallest annual advance in three years, Bloomberg reported.

ChartRecent data including declining vacancies and higher weekly jobless claims underscore cooler-yet-resilient labour demand. Having more available workers to choose from is helping companies step back from the steep pay increases that had been a source of inflationary pressures over the past few years. 

The closely-watched jobs report will surface days after a Tuesday panel in Portugal that includes Fed Chair Powell. Investors will monitor his comments for clues on how soon the US central bank may start lowering interest rates. Christine Lagarde, Powell’s euro-area counterpart, will also be on the panel at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra.

While off the boil, the US labour market remains healthy, allowing consumer spending and the broader economy to continue plugging along despite higher borrowing costs.

Another key report for the coming holiday-shortened week in the US is expected to show a further decline in job openings, suggesting that companies are having greater success filing positions. Openings for May are projected to have dropped below 8 million for the first time since early 2021.

Meanwhile, It’s a big week for purchasing manager indexes. China’s official PMIs due on Sunday are expected to show activity held steady in June, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI a day later may tick lower.

The other Caixin PMIs are published later in the week, along with PMIs for Indonesia, South Korea, Myanmar, Philippines, Malaysia Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore.

In other data, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey is expected to show business sentiment broadly holding steady in the second quarter, with the gauge for large service-sector firms edging lower from a three-decade high in the previous period. Capex forecasts for this fiscal year are expected to rise to double digits.

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