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Malaysia rules out total shutdown

Malaysia has seen a spike in fresh Covid-9 infections over the past week, with 13,944 new cases being reported on Tuesday alone…reports Asian Lite News

Malaysia will not shut down its economic and industrial activities even if there was spike in new Covid-19 cases, Minister of International Trade and Industry Mohamed Azmin Ali said.

Previous lockdowns had caused 826,000 people to lose jobs in the first three months of the total lockdown in 2020, Xinhua news agency quoted Mohamed Azmin as saying.

“We can’t do it anymore (total lockdown), yes, we need to manage this pandemic effectively, we will do our best on the health matter, but ‘economic health’ is also important. And we will now do it in a balanced way if there is a sudden spike (Covid-19),” he added.

Mohamed Azmin said his ministry will focus on getting the employees of the economic sector vaccinated.

Malaysia has seen a spike in fresh Covid-9 infections over the past week, with 13,944 new cases being reported on Tuesday alone, according to data from the Health Ministry, with the Omicron variant triggering the increase.

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Myanmar staring at a long civil war

The Junta may be having its own preferred plan, but whether it will be practicable to implement such a plan when the whole country is in revolt against the regime, writes Baladas Ghoshal

In its one year of power, the Myanmar Junta remains completely alienated from the people, yet not vulnerable to any popular pressure for leaving the political scene. Symbolic of the alienation of the people from the Junta was on December 10, when the whole country was shut down in a “silent strike” against the military, streets in cities and towns nationwide were deserted throughout the day, shops were closed and people stayed at home in a mighty show of defiance.

While resistance to the Junta has been quite widespread and broad-based due to support from major sections of people, including many ethnic groups like Karens and Kachins who have been fighting the State for decades now closing ranks with the resistance, the Junta’s power base is slowly eroding due to widespread discontentment with an oppressive institution determined to remain in power with unprecedented violence, desertion of government and public officials and reported casualties on its side.

Junta’s survival instinct has led the regime not only to indulge in extreme form of violence, but also trying to keep the morale of the armed forces high by adding to its strength in numbers and inflating its image as a modern institution with the purchase of state of the art weapons systems, even while those have no relevance or use in fighting the resistance. The procurement of two diesel-electric submarines, one from India and the other from China together with other advanced weapons from China, Pakistan and Israel, have, in the words of Bertil Lintner, a leading expert on Myanmar, “as much to do with diplomatic balancing as keeping the military’s rank-and-file loyal, proud and satisfied.”

To quote him further: “For their part, Myanmar’s generals aim to ensure the officer corps and rank-and-file remain loyal to the top brass, led by coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. It is of imperative importance to the troops, regardless of which military service they belong, that they are on the surface part of a modern, well-equipped and world-class military – even if they’re not.” With all the above strategies, the regime has not been able to consolidate its position in all parts of the country. The Junta is in power but lacks legitimacy.

Lacking legitimacy, the military has resorted to increasing levels of violence to maintain its grip on power. Large number of Myanmar refugees, that includes government officials, policemen and ordinary citizens who are protesting against the coup, are coming over to Mizoram in India and in the bordering areas of Thailand, to take shelter. Peoples’ non-cooperation with the brutal regime has impacted essential services, whose delivery has come to a standstill, affecting daily life in the country. Since the coup, thousands of civil servants, railway workers, doctors, nurses, teachers and others have joined or supported the protests, with many arrested.

Banks, private healthcare and other services have shuttered offices or slowed operations to comply with restrictions on crowds. The pro-democracy and civil disobedience movements are gradually widening their base of support by bringing on board the various armed ethnic groups, who had been fighting against the Tatmadaw for many years for greater autonomy for themselves. Inflexible repression by the Tatmadaw, has pushed segments of the urban-based protest movement into using low-level guerrilla warfare tactics, while escalating hostilities with ethnic armed forces in the north and east threaten a wider war on multiple fronts in the country’s borderlands.

The economic crisis triggered by COVID-19 and the coup could plunge “up to 12 million people into poverty” in Myanmar, driving the poverty rate to 48.2% by early 2022 and pushing the country back to where it was in 2005, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said in a report released on 30 April last year. The projection is based on a scenario in which the disruption of banking, logistics and trade cuts wages and business income in half. The report said women and children are set to bear the heaviest burden of the crises. “Half of all children in Myanmar could be living in poverty within a year,” said Wignaraja, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, adding already vulnerable internally displaced people also faced more pressure.

In 2017, a survey conducted by UNDP, the World Bank and the Myanmar government showed that 24.8% of the population was living under the poverty line. Millions of people have lost their jobs or sources of livelihood over the last year. The prices of many essential food items have shot up with the national currency, the kyat plummeting in value, pushing up the cost of imports including cooking oil, agricultural inputs such as fertiliser, and refined fuels, and with it rising domestic transport costs. A large proportion of the population, including in the cities, is slipping into poverty and food insecurity, as predicted wiping out a decade of progress and inflicting a terrible cost on the most vulnerable.

With doctors, medical staff and teachers at the forefront of the civil disobedience movement and the majority continuing to refuse to work under the junta, public services have collapsed. “Those on strike have been targeted for beatings and arrest, while those who have continued working face violent retaliation from their communities and local defence forces. The upshot is a health system in disarray and schools likewise disrupted, with few teachers in classrooms and few students in attendance,” says the International Crisis Group in their latest report.

There are widespread blackouts across the country as the regime has been forced to cancel power generation projects pegged to the U.S. dollar that it can no longer afford. All in all, human sufferings have been immense. According to a January 4 joint report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 135,000 civilians have been displaced because of the fighting and, given more recent military operations in Karen and Kayah states, the current figure may be twice as high.

In which direction Myanmar is moving?

The Junta has its own road map, a five point formula in which it wants to hold an election sometime in the middle of 2023 after which it wants to hand over power to an elected President, obviously someone from the Junta itself or what is known as the State Administrative Council (SAC). With that plan in mind, it has been doing everything that is needed to ensure its success in a constitutional framework that would guarantee the dissolution of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, the most popular party in Myanmar. Suu Kyi is already under detention with all kinds of contrived charges and will continue to remain so in the foreseeable future unless some miracle takes place to bring down the army regime. Elections machinery is also under overhaul to make it more amenable to the junta and ensure the success of the Union Solidarity and Development Party, consisting of retired army officials and their henchmen.

The Junta may be having its own preferred plan, but whether it will be practicable to implement such a plan when the whole country is in revolt against the regime. More importantly, in the backdrop of a popularly mandated elections being rejected by the Junta, a new contrived election that will bring retired army generals in civilian garb cannot resolve the political crisis that Myanmar is mired in. Western support and the ethnic rebel armies like the KIA and KNA making common cause with the democracy supporters to build a Federal Myanmar might have emboldened the protesters to challenge the junta and may have raised the hope of gaining recognition from the international community for the NUG. But it is highly unlikely that the Tatmadaw will cave in, as the means of violence is still overwhelmingly in their favour to be pressured to surrender.

 Even if the battle-hardened rebel Kachin and Karen armies provide guerrilla training to the opposition groups, for one, it will require a long time to garner enough strength to match Tatmadaw and win victory over it; for another, will the Myanmar society at large be able to maintain unity in the event of a civil war consuming the country. The international community also may not have the stomach for another Syria-like situation distracting their attention and energy from more serious global issues. More importantly, ASEAN, likely to be most affected by a civil war in Myanmar, will not allow such a situation to develop. Even if the ASEAN Five point consensus lacks much teeth and appears to be too weak, that is the only path through which peace and normalcy can be restored in Myanmar. But the Junta has not shown any inclination so far that it would be amenable to the ASEAN plan. Under such circumstances, a protracted civil war is what the country is destined for in the foreseeable future.

(Baladas Ghoshal is a former Professor and Chair in Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal and exclusive to India Narrative) (The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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Will ASEAN line up with Indonesia against China?

The most recent subtle initiative Indonesia has taken is to invite officials in charge of maritime security from five other countries in ASEAN to meet to discuss how to respond to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea….writes Baladas Ghoshal

China has formally opened another front in its bellicosity in the South China Sea, and practically forcing Jakarta to accept a dispute in the Natunas, where there is none, as the area concerned is within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Indonesia as per the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Beijing claims that its “nine-dash” line, an artificial boundary invented by the CCP (Communist Party of China) that covers most of the South China Sea, giving it ownership of this entire maritime area extending to the EEZ of Indonesia in the Natuna Islands. The EEZ is an area extending up to 200 nautical miles from the baseline of a country. While other countries have a right of innocent passage in such territory, a country has special rights regarding exploration and use of maritime resources in its EEZ, to the exclusion of other powers. Jakarta has always stood up to China bullying her in the EEZ without declaring it loudly.

China has repeatedly told Indonesia to halt an oil and natural gas development project in the South China Sea, claiming infringement on its territorial waters. But in early December last year, it officially communicated to the Indonesian government to stop appraisal drilling at Harbour Energy’s (LON:HBR) Tuna Block offshore Indonesia in maritime territory that both nations view as their own during a months-long standoff in the South China Sea, reported Reuters. The unprecedented demand raised tensions over natural resources between China and Indonesia in a volatile area of global strategic and economic importance. China not only objected to the drilling operations, but had also sent coast guard vessels into the area to mount pressure on Indonesia. Jakarta has not openly disclosed about China’s protests, as that would amount to an admission of a dispute in the area. Even while it does not acknowledge the existence of a dispute, Indonesia in May 2020 sent the United Nations a letter rejecting Beijing’s historical claims in the sea indicated by its nine-dash like maps.. China, in turn, sent a counter reply to the UN, maintaining its claims in the South China Sea while seeking a solution through negotiations, which Jakarta flatly rejected.

While not inclined to make the spat with China public, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has pursued Jakarta’s traditional diplomatic approach of being equidistant from both the United States and China. Like most other ASEAN countries, Indonesia doesn’t want to take sides between the two rival powers despite all the Chinese bullying. And he adopted a clever strategy of roping in Britain and Russia to deal with the Chinese pressure. Jakarta sought the support of a consortium of Britain’s Harbour Energy and Russian state oil company Zarubezhneft to lay a pipeline across the North Natuna Sea to connect with Vietnam’s offshore network. The two companies have already announced that they have found a modest gross gas resource of 600 billion cubic feet after drilling of two appraisal wells in the Tuna block, about 10 km from Indonesia’s EEZ. Despite Beijing’s objections, the drilling continued for six months and was completed last November with Indonesia’s Bakamla (Badan Keamaanan Laut Repulik Indonesia- Indonesian Maritime Security Agency)- claiming success in their ventures, which some analysts called it “a grand �victory’ over the Chinese.”

Beijing’s bellicosity in the South China

China equally doesn’t let Vietnam drill oil and gas in its own EEZ, which forced Hanoi to seek Tokyo’s support. Similarly, China doesn’t let the Philippines drill oil in its own waters either, which ultimately forced Manila to start drilling in open defiance to China. Not only that, Beijing imposes annual summer fishing bans in the South China Sea in an attempt to deprive other legitimate countries from fishing in their own EEZ. Both Malaysia and the Philippines too, face an aggressive Beijing in their South China Sea possessions. China already controls the Scarborough Shoal – a disputed feature in the South China Sea, claimed by both Beijing and Manila. Presently, Chinese maritime militias are also eyeing Whitsun Reef, a geographical feature in Filipino waters, which is also being claimed by China. Malaysia, on the other hand, is itself a victim of Chinese bullying. Chinese coastguard ships harass Malaysian oil and gas vessels operating in their own waters. China claims Malaysian territory also and forbids it to drill there.

Signs of Unity among the Claimant States

Brunei, a tiny Sultanate, where China has invested extensively, was naturally passive for a long time in its response towards Beijing denying the country to drill in its own EEZ. But last year, Brunei was appointed as the ASEAN chair and was no longer passive and it quietly showed the ability to mobilise claimant states of ASEAN as well as Indonesia, to express concern about China’s aggressive behaviour over the South China Sea disputes. This happened despite China’s attempts to woo Brunei through vaccine diplomacy sending a batch of Sinopharm Covid-19 vaccines in a donation to which its Second Minister of foreign affairs Haji Erywan thanked the former. In January, a Chinese state-owned company Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group had also signed a deal to redevelop and manage a fisheries port in Brunei. But the tiny Kingdom decided to cooperate with other South China Sea disputants who wanted to tackle Beijing’s assertiveness in the hotly contested region. While China is trying to pull Brunei to its side, the latter, it seems, has made up its mind to stick with fellow South China Sea disputants within the regional bloc.

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Singapore, which is neither a claimant state on the South China Sea, nor has any disputes with any ASEAN members, is also increasingly becoming active on finding a way to manage the conflict. Recent agreements for cooperation in oil exploration and maritime security sectors suggest that some ASEAN members are ready to forgo their own petty differences and take on the main challenge, China. Plans for a maritime accord between Malaysia and Vietnam, for instance, indicate how the ASEAN neighbours are ready to come closer to each other in face of growing Chinese revisionism. However, minor the shift is, it is the beginning of a semblance of unity among some ASEAN members in the face of China’s belligerence and their own existential crisis.

Indonesia dares China

The most recent subtle initiative Indonesia has taken is to invite officials in charge of maritime security from five other countries in ASEAN to meet early next year to discuss how to respond to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Head of Bakamla, Vice Adm. Aan Kurnia, was quoted in the Indonesian media as telling reporters that he had invited his counterparts from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam to a meeting in February 2022 to “share experiences and foster brotherhood” among the countries facing similar challenges posed by China. Maritime agencies from the six countries took part in an ASEAN Coast Guard Forum last October, signalling willingness to cooperate. The Jakarta Post quoted Aan as saying that it is important “to present a coordinated approach” in matters related to the South China Sea, and “how to respond in the field when we face the same �disturbance’.” The vice admiral did not mention China by name.

A meeting similar to the ASEAN Coast Guard forum would be a “great opportunity for ASEAN coast guards and maritime law enforcement agencies to talk and cooperate with each other,” Satya Pratama, a senior Indonesian government official and a former Bakamla captain was quoted to have said. “It is also a good idea for Indonesia [through Bakamla] to explain Indonesia’s intention so that others can understand and follow suit,” he said.

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“Coast guards in Southeast Asia have a bad history of cooperation – they see each other as their primary challenges, even worse than the navies, which have learned to cooperate amid competition,” to quote Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS).. This is reflected in ASEAN’s attempt to negotiate a Code of Conduct (COC) to regulate maritime activities there, with some nations like the current ASEAN chair Cambodia reluctant to criticize Beijing. This also finds expression in the comment by the Filipino foreign secretary Teodore Locsin Jr. who spoke of those difficulties earlier last month when he addressed a meeting between foreign ministers from ASEAN and Group of Seven (G7) developed countries. He said that as ASEAN countries and China struggle to agree on the South China Sea issues, “recent incidents and the heightened tension � remain a serious concern.” “These worrying developments underscore the urgency and importance of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea � But negotiations for the COC, even on our watch, went nowhere,” Locsin said. Antonio Carpio, a former justice of the Philippine Supreme Court, had his own suggestion that five ASEAN coastal states – the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, plus Indonesia – should form a coalition “to oppose China’s hegemony and bullying”

Challenges to Unity remain

Forging unity among the five ASEAN states is not going to be an easy task, as there are longstanding trust issue between them, as well as fear of retaliation by China. In the meantime, however, the Vietnam Coast Guard and the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency signed a memorandum of understanding last month on cooperation in strengthening maritime security and safety between the two forces. But overlapping maritime claims have been an irritant in Vietnam-Indonesia bilateral relations for decades. The two countries frequently clash over the issue of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. In 2019, for example, Indonesia seized and destroyed 38 Vietnamese vessels for illegal fishing. A similar situation is seen between Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as between Indonesia and Malaysia. Yet the very attempt by Indonesia to create some understanding between the coast guards of the five countries signals a resolve on their part to display their unity vis-�-vis the Chinese bully. Whether the attempt to forge unity succeeds or not, it surely heralds a shift in the ASEAN way of doing things from consensus principle to pragmatic approach to deal with China challenge.

Indonesia bolstering its own defences

Meanwhile, on its own,Indonesia is preparing herself for any eventuality and looks to bolster its defences in and around Natuna, suspecting that China is exploring opportunities to seize effective control of the islands. The Indonesian military is lengthening an air base runway so that additional planes can be deployed, together with the construction of a submarine base as well. Local fishing vessels act as eyes and ears, take part in an early warning system on the lookout for approaching Chinese ships. With the USA, Jakarta is building a joint training facility for coast guard personnel near Natuna. The two nations held their biggest joint military exercise to date this August, spanning three locations in Indonesia. The drills simulated island defences.

Indonesia could be the next buyer of BrahMos after the Philippines

To build its defence capacities and capabilities Indonesia also has growing defence cooperation with Japan, Australia and India. New Delhi has already finalized a deal with the Filipinos for supply of Brah-Mos supersonic missile systems, jointly produced by India and Russia, amid China’s aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea region. BrahMos will upload substantial confirmed capacity to the Philippines’ coastal defences, and it compares favourably with the anti-ship missiles in carrier with different navies. It is some distance quicker than the U.S. Army’s Tomahawk or the Chinese language PLA Army’s YJ-18.

India is exploring the possibility of selling the BrahMos cruise missile to Indonesia, and a team from the Indo-Russian joint venture that makes the weapon system visited a state-run shipyard in Surabaya last year to assess the fitting of the missile on Indonesian warships, Besides the BrahMos, India has offered to supply coastal defence radars and marine grade steel to Indonesia and to service the Russian-made Su-30 combat jets flown by the Indonesian air force as part of efforts to deepen bilateral defence and military cooperation.

With a commanding maritime strategic location and ample attributes of developing its national power, Indonesia could well become the spearhead within the ASEAN to checkmate China’s expansionist drive in the South China Sea.

(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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Aung San Suu Kyi hit with new jail term

Suu Kyi, the 76-year-old former State Councillor, faces a total of 11 charges, such as violating the Official Secrets Act. She has denied them all….reports Asian Lite News

Aung San Suu Kyi, the former de facto leader of Myanmar who was ousted during the February 1, 2021 military coup, has been sentenced to four more years in prison after her first conviction last month during which she was given a reduced term of two years.

According to a report in the BBC, Monday’s convictions stem from when soldiers searched her house on the day of the coup and discovered walkie-talkies.

Monday’s trial which took place here was closed to the media and Suu Kyi’s lawyers have been barred from communicating with the media and public.

Last month, Suu Kyi and deposed President Win Myint were initially sentenced to four years in prison after they were found guilty on charges of “inciting dissent and breaking Covid rules” under thr Natural Disaster Management Law.

Both their prison terms were later halved to two years.

Suu Kyi, the 76-year-old former State Councillor, faces a total of 11 charges, such as violating the Official Secrets Act. She has denied them all.

If convicted of all the charges, the Nobel laureate could spend the rest of her life behind bars.

Following the coup which toppled her National League for Democracy (NLD) government, she has been under house arrest in an undisclosed location.

The coup was staged after the military alleged massive voting fraud in the November 2020 general elections, which saw the NLD win a majority of seats in both houses of Parliament.

Reacting to Monday’s sentencing, Human Rights Watch said the proceedings were “courtroom circus of secret proceedings on bogus charges… so that (Suu Kyi) will remain in prison indefinitely”, the BBC reported.

The coup triggered widespread demonstrations and Myanmar’s military has cracked down on pro-democracy protesters, activists and journalists, according to rights groups.

Suu Kyi is one of more than 10,600 people to have been arrested by the junta since February, and at least 1,303 others killed in the demonstrations, according to the monitoring group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

ALSO READ: Is it game over for Suu Kyi?

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Myanmar extends ceasefire until end of 2022

So far, 10 ethnic armed groups have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with the government since it was initiated in October 2015….reports Asian Lite News

Myanmar’s military has planned to further extend its ceasefire with ethnic armed groups until the end of 2022, according to a joint statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, chairman of the State Administration Council and commander-in-chief of Defense Services, announced the move during a meeting with Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen in Nay Pyi Taw on Friday, Xinhua news agency reported.

Last year, the military announced the extension of a five-month suspension of military operations from October 1, 2021 to February 28 this year, in order to enable effective efforts to combat Covid-19 nationwide and boost the peace process in the country.

A demonstrator stacks bags on a street as a barricade during a demonstration against the military coup and the detention of civilian leaders in Myanmar(ians)

So far, 10 ethnic armed groups have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with the government since it was initiated in October 2015.

Hun Sen, whose country this year holds the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, discussed with Min Aung Hlaing a number of bilateral and regional issues of common interest and concerns during a two-day visit to Myanmar, Cambodia’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn said.

Myanmar declared a state of emergency after President U Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, along with other officials from the National League for Democracy, were detained by the military on February 1, 2021.

The state power was transferred to Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing after the declaration of the state of emergency.

ALSO READ: UNSC condemns Myanmar massacre

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Cambodia vows to strengthen ASEAN’s centrality for security

Sokhonn, who is also a Deputy Prime Minister, said Cambodia will promote ASEAN’s spirit as a united family…reports Asian Lite News

Cambodia, the incoming chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2022, vowed to strengthen the bloc’s centrality in order to maintain and uphold security, peace, and prosperity, Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn said.

Speaking during a briefing here, Sokhonn said the country will reinforce multilateralism and multilateral processes through ASEAN-led mechanisms and concerted actions that will remain open, transparent, inclusive, and rules-based, reports Xinhua news agency.

He said the kingdom will also foster mutual trust, respect, interest, and understanding in accordance with the principles and objectives laid out in the UN Charter, ASEAN Charter, and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, among others.

“ASEAN Centrality will be further strengthened in the face of rising anti-globalization sentiments, unilateralism and protectionism, while promoting the ASEAN Way, unity in diversity, caring and sharing community, and the culture of peace,” he said.

Sokhonn, who is also a Deputy Prime Minister, said Cambodia will promote ASEAN’s spirit as a united family.

He added that the kingdom will also do its best to reenergize and expand bloc’s partnerships with external partners in order to maintain regional peace and stability, and to enhance the ASEAN community building efforts.

Commerce Minister Pan Sorasak said Cambodia will endeavour to steer ASEAN’s collective efforts to promote an action-oriented approach that is based on openness, honesty, good faith, solidarity, and harmony within the bloc, so as to effectively address the common challenges facing the region.

“Also, a foreseeable priority for us is to ensure more satisfactory outcomes of ASEAN efforts to emerge stronger from the Covid-19 pandemic.

ALSO READ: Cambodia to promote ASEAN’s spirit as ‘united family’

“In this regard, Cambodia commits to working closely with ASEAN and development partners to sustain ASEAN as a region of critical importance for global trade, investment and supply chains through, among others, generating maximum benefits from the existing free trade agreements and especially the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which will enter into force on January 1, 2022,” he added.

Sorasak said Cambodia will guide the bloc to accelerate and harmonise ASEAN’s objectives in deepening regional and global integration process and building back stronger from the pandemic with inclusiveness, competitiveness, resilience, sustainability and equitability.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

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UNSC condemns Myanmar massacre

The Ambassadors in a statement called for accountability and “the immediate cessation of all violence”….reports Asian Lite News

The UN Security Council on Wednesday condemned the reported killing of at least 35 people, including four children and two humanitarian workers in Myanmar’s Kayah State on December 25.

The Ambassadors in a statement called for accountability and “the immediate cessation of all violence”.

The Council members emphasised the importance of respecting human rights and ensuring the safety of civilians. They also underscored the need for “safe and unimpeded humanitarian access to all people in need, and for the full protection, safety and security of humanitarian and medical personnel”, according to UN News.

The Ambassadors reaffirmed their support for the people of Myanmar and the country’s democratic transition along with their strong commitment to the sovereignty, political independence, territorial integrity and unity of Myanmar.

Credible reports suggested that four children were killed, including two 17-year-old boys, a teenage girl and a child approximately age five, whose gender was not mentioned, the UNSC said in a statement.

The two humanitarians worked for the non-Governmental organization (NGO) Save the Children, which confirmed their deaths. They were killed while returning to NGO’s Loikaw office after responding to humanitarian needs in a nearby community, it added.

Earlier in the week, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) condemned the killings, saying it was “shocked and saddened” by the reported killing and burning of victims during a time when many prepared to celebrate Christmas.

In a statement, the UNICEF Regional Director for East Asia and the Pacific, Debora Comini, condemned the attack.

She reminded that the protection of civilians – particularly children and humanitarian workers – must be treated as a priority during times of conflict, in accordance with international humanitarian law and the Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which Myanmar is a signatory.

“UNICEF calls for urgent action to investigate this deplorable incident and to hold those responsible to account,” she said.

“We offer our deepest condolences to the families of the victims and to our colleagues at Save the Children”. (ANI)

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India calls for earliest return of democracy in Myanmar

The Foreign Secretary who reached Myanmar on December 22, also met members of civil society and political leaders, including the National League for Democracy, called for resolution of issues through dialogue….reports Asian Lite News

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla who is on a two-day visit to Myanmar reaffirmed India’s strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five point consensus, the Ministry of External Affairs said on Thursday.

During his meeting with the Chairman, State Administrative Council and other senior representatives of the Southeast Asian country, the Foreign Secretary also emphasized India’s interest in seeing the country return to democracy at the earliest, the Ministry said.

The Foreign Secretary who reached Myanmar on December 22, also met members of civil society and political leaders, including the National League for Democracy, called for resolution of issues through dialogue.

He is also scheduled to meet Myanmar-based Ambassadors, and representatives of the UN, the MEA added.

Foreign Secretary Shringla also called for complete cessation of all violence, the MEA said in its statement.

A demonstrator stacks bags on a street as a barricade during a demonstration against the military coup and the detention of civilian leaders in Myanmar(ians)

The Foreign Secretary conveyed India’s continued humanitarian support for the people of Myanmar, the Ministry said.

In the context of Myanmar’s fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, he handed over one million doses of “Made in India” vaccines to the Myanmar Red Cross Society.

A part of this consignment would be utilized for communities living along Myanmar’s border with India. A grant of 10,000 tons of rice and wheat to Myanmar was also announced.

Foreign Secretary Shringla also expressed India’s continued support for people-centric socio-economic developmental projects, including those along the India-Myanmar border areas, as well as India’s commitment for expeditious implementation of ongoing connectivity initiatives such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway, the Ministry said.

He also reiterated India’s commitment to continue with the projects under Rakhine State Development Programme and Border Area Development Programme for the benefit of the people of Myanmar, the MEA added.

According to the Ministry, the visit also provided an opportunity to raise matters relating to India’s security, especially in the light of the recent incident in Churachandpur district in southern Manipur.

Foreign Secretary Shringla stressed the need to put an end to any violence and maintain peace and stability in the border areas.

Pic credits Twitter

Both sides reiterated their commitment to ensure that their respective territories would not be allowed to be used for any activities inimical to the other, the MEA said.

India shares an approximately 1700-km long border with Myanmar. Any developments in that country have a direct impact on India’s bordering regions. Peace and stability in Myanmar remain of utmost importance to India, specifically to its North Eastern Region, the Ministry said.

As a democracy and close neighbour, India has been involved in the democratic transition process in Myanmar and in this context has worked with various stakeholders in developing capacities on democratic systems and practices.

India proposes to renew these efforts for Myanmar to emerge as a stable, democratic, federal union in accordance with the wishes of the people of Myanmar, the Ministry added.

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Shringla’s Myanmar visit to highlight India’s ‘balanced approach’

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s two-day working visit to Myanmar beginning from Wednesday hence assumes importance especially since it’s the first such outreach to a significant neighbor since the February 1 military coup in the country. ..writes Mihir Bhonsale

Myanmar is an important Indian Ocean neighbor and central to India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies. India shares a 1,700 km border with Myanmar and the latter has a historical role in New Delhi’s security through quelling militancy in Northeastern states.

Given Myanmar’s geo-strategic significance acting as India’s only land-bridge with South-East Asia, in the last two decades, New Delhi has invested in connectivity, energy, infrastructure and community projects in Myanmar.

Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s two-day working visit to Myanmar beginning from Wednesday hence assumes importance especially since it’s the first such outreach to a significant neighbor since the February 1 military coup in the country.

India’s balanced approach

Ever since the turn of events in Myanmar, India has stated its concern at the military coup in Myanmar and the detention of its de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

It has condoned the loss of innocent lives in the country and has appealed through bilateral and multilateral channels for upholding the rule of law and democratic process.

Even recently, when a military court ordered former State Counselor’s Suu Kyi imprisonment for two years, the Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson said India was ‘disturbed at the recent verdicts’ and reiterated that as a neighbouring democracy, India has been consistently supportive of the democratic transition in Myanmar.

Pic credits Twitter

However, being the largest democracy, while India has been calling for the restoration of democracy in the Southeast Asian nation, it has also not lost the sight of the larger picture. Since the early days of the military coup, New Delhi had reportedly called for a balanced approach on Myanmar.

In February, when the UN Security Council failed to come up with a statement on the coup in the country following its meeting urging removal of the state of emergency and reinstatement of democratic norms, it was known that India prefers a constructive engagement with Myanmar.

Further lending voice to New Delhi’s preference, the MEA Spokesperson had in April while condemning any use of violence and demanded the restoration of democracy in the neighbouring country had stated that “We remain engaged on this issue with our international interlocutors and at the UN Security Council in an effort to play a balanced and constructive role.”

This is also believed to be the reason behind New Delhi’s abstention from voting at the UN General Assembly‘s resolution for an arms embargo against Myanmar. In the vote in June, a total of 119 countries voted ‘yes’ and 36 countries abstained, including Myanmar’s neighbors China, India and Russia.

Noting that its views were not reflected in the draft resolution before the UN General Assembly passed it on June 19, India added it does not believe that the tabling of this resolution for adoption at this juncture, is “conducive to aiding the country’s joint efforts towards strengthening the democratic process in Myanmar.”

Issues of security along the border concerns to be discussed

Announcing the visit, the MEA on Tuesday said, “During the visit, Foreign Secretary will hold discussions with the State Administration Council, political parties and members of civil society. Issues relating to humanitarian support to Myanmar, security and India-Myanmar border concerns, and the political situation in Myanmar will be discussed”.

Foreign Secretary Shringla is expected to convey New Delhi’s concerns on the unfortunate trajectory of events since the military takeover in February and urge for release of Ex State Counselor Suu Kyi. His visit comes days before an expected December 27 military court announcement of its verdict on Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial for illegally importing and possessing walkie talkies.

While fathoming that the military leadership will lend ears to the world’s concern, Shringla will also likely to offer humanitarian assistance to Naypyidaw which is reeling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and is increasingly finding it difficult to reach medicines to far-flung areas in the country.

Pic credits Twitter

Security and border concerns will be on top of the visiting Foreign Secretary’s mind as since the military coup, there have been increased instances of fleeing Burmese citizens crossing over into India seeking asylum. In June, the UN Special Envoy to Myanmar had informed the UN Security council that roughly 10,000 refugees from Myanmar have fled to India and Thailand.

Shringla is also expected to take up the issue of the renewed threats to India from Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups such as the Arakan National Army and National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang (NSCN-K).

Recent developments such as Myanmar’s handing over to India, five insurgents belonging to Manipur’s separatist outfit operating from the remote northeastern region bordering Myanmar points towards a continuing cooperation in border security between the two countries.

Reviewing the status of projects such as the Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport project that is being implemented with an Indian grant of $484 million will be contingent upon the Indian Foreign Secretary’s visit to Myanmar.

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India must help ASEAN break out of China’s stranglehold

New Delhi’s stakes in ASEAN are quite high because of its geographical location between the two oceans – Indian and the Pacific- together with its control over strategic outlets and the choke points, writes Baladas Ghoshal

Myths and platitudes abound in international relations discourses and in the conduct of relations between states. Scholars and leaders alike use or invoke them with gay abundance without going into the relevance of some of the concepts and ideas in the changed global and regional strategic environment.

One such concept is ASEAN Centrality, the principle assuming that the South-east Asian grouping of 10 countries should remain at the centre of regional cooperation. ASEAN’s central position in evolutionary formation of regional institutionalised architectures such as ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus, East Asian Economic Group (EAEG), East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC), ASEAN +3 and East Asia Summit (EAS), have to be accepted unquestioningly and credited for long years of peace and stability in Southeast and East Asia or what was known as the Asia-Pacific region. But with the increased US-China economic and strategic competition and military posturing currently underway, its relevance is questionable and perhaps ended.

US-China Strategic Understanding behind ASEAN centrality

ASEAN’s success in the past, despite being a less powerful entity, came essentially due to a conducive strategic environment, or what the leading thinker in ASEAN, Kishore Mahbubani, called ‘strategic luck’. That luck has run out now, as the strategic environment has changed drastically and is no longer conducive for it to play a central role.

ASEAN centrality was essentially premised on convergence of strategic goals and interests between the United States and China, the two principal actors in the Asia-Pacific region, and the cooperation and patronage they provided in the evolution of the ASEAN-led institutions as the backbone of their preferred Asian security and economic architecture. As the basic or core interests of the two did not clash until China gave up the pretence of its peaceful rise and began to challenge the US-led global order and its hegemony in the region, both allowed the ASEAN to take the lead in shaping the regional architecture, from which grew the concept of its centrality. Both benefited from this arrangement to give an impression that the whole processes of integration and institution-building for securing economic prosperity and territorial integrity of the region was endogenous-driven with ASEAN at its Centre.

ASEAN’s success in the past, despite being a less powerful entity, came essentially due to a conducive strategic environment, or what the leading thinker in ASEAN, Kishore Mahbubani, called ‘strategic luck’. That luck has run out now, as the strategic environment has changed drastically and is no longer conducive for it to play a central role.

While ASEAN was formed in 1967 amidst turmoil in the region with US patronage for the primary objective of checkmating the advent of communism in the region, after Sino-American rapprochement and unification of Vietnam in the 1970s, it turned out to be containment of Soviet-backed Vietnamese Communism. ASEAN gave full support to the Sino-American goal. As a trade-off, it received massive investment from the US and its supporters like Japan to promote their economic development and modernization of their societies.

China under Deng Xiao Ping also took advantage of the situation and charted its course towards its emergence as the factory of the world. ASEAN emerged as economic tigers with resultant political stability in their member countries. The US was happy to bring about the collapse of the Soviet Union, and declare the victory of the West. The arrangement was working quite well for all three until the mid-1990s.

ASEAN and US taken for a ride by China

ASEAN was the first one to realise its basic weaknesses in this triangular arrangement and the folly of trusting China, when the latter, as part of its salami-slicing tactics, occupied mischief Reef, an atoll in the Spratlys Island in the South China Sea, where the Philippines also laid its claim as per the norms of the UNCLOS. But ASEAN had no option as it was too weak militarily vis-à-vis China. It was content with issuing just a joint statement of foreign ministers expressing concern at the developments in SCS.

Beijing was already emboldened with its earlier occupation of Paracels in SCS from the Vietnamese in 1975 when both the USA and ASEAN had acquiesced because Hanoi was considered an enemy then. China in the meantime had already weakened ASEAN’s resolve to protest against the former’s salami-slicing by driving a wedge within the latter by dividing the countries into claimant and non-claimant states.

The US then was basking in the glory of their success in the Cold War and did not bother much what China was doing under its so-called peaceful rise. Washington, as yet, did not realise that Beijing was taking it for a ride. American, European and Japanese investments in massive scale enabled Beijing to keep the Western consumers hostage by supplying cheap luxury goods to them and buying time to strengthen its economic and military capabilities so that it could secure its core interests, and challenge the United States-led global order – economic, political and strategic, when convenient. ASEAN and its institutional mechanism, directly or indirectly, only helped Beijing to consolidate its position.

Now, with China’s increasing assertiveness, bellicosity and wolf-war diplomatic behaviour and the response it generated from the West and other countries that are affected by it, ASEAN-led institutions are now found to be wanting, because the earlier US-China understanding has broken down completely. Even ASEAN itself, though not admitting it openly, have realised this to their dismay, forcing them practically reconciling to a Beijing-led regional order with minimum damage to their economic stakes and territorial integrity. Even that may be difficult to achieve under the existing US-China economic and strategic rivalry and the latter not making any amends to its aggressive and intimidating behaviour to those that stood up to it, including India, Australia, Japan and Australia.

Indian Stakes in ASEAN centrality

New Delhi’s stakes in ASEAN are quite high because of its geographical location between the two oceans – Indian and the Pacific- together with its control over strategic outlets and the choke points. This is manifested in our Act East Policy (AOP) and the Indo-Pacific strategy, both of which reaffirm our commitment to ASEAN’s centrality. Together with our troubled relationship with China and a hostile Pakistan ready to work at Beijing’s behest, we cannot afford to lose ASEAN. With India opting out of RCEP, its economic engagement with the region has suffered a setback, even while it brought certain urgency in having a fresh look at its FTA with ASEAN and bilateral FTAs with Japan and Australia.

Strategically, ASEAN is unwilling to join any grouping that Beijing perceives hostile to its interest. In such a situation New Delhi along with its other strategic partners like Washington, Canberra and Tokyo, who have a common goal to create a more open, inclusive and rule-based order, must try to lure ASEAN countries away from Beijing’s economic stranglehold by offering an alternative in the form of quality infrastructure and supply chain resilience initiatives that they have undertaken in recent years to lessen their own dependence on China. At the same time, India must strive for strengthen the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), where Thailand and Myanmar are already members, by inviting Indonesia and Vietnam to widen and broaden its economic engagement with ASEAN and bring South and Southeast Asia close to each other.

(Baladas Ghoshal is a former Professor and Chair in South & Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal.)

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