Baloch have a long history of rulers who make tall promises and ultimately not delivering…writes Omar Qazi
Despite recent overtures by the Pakistan government for holding dialogue with the Baloch people to resolve their problems, there remains widespread scepticism about the initiative.
Writing in the Sindh Express, Omar Qazi notes that the Baloch have a long history of rulers ranging from former Pakistan Prime Minister Asif Zardari to former President Gen Pervez Musharraf, who make tall promises and ultimately not delivering.
He further points out that gas produced in Balochistan’s Sui area was supplied to Punjab and Khyber Palchtunwa provinces but denied to households in Sui region in Balochistan.
According to Qazi, discrimination and injustice against the Baloch was further illustrated by the discrepancy between Balochistan’s contribution to the Pakistan National Exchequer and the returns given to the region in terms of development.
He underlined that Balochistan meant much more than Gwadar Port with its borders with Iran and Afghanistan, particularly in the current scenario of withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan Meanwhile, in another report in the Express Daily, provisional parliamentary leader of the Balochistan National Party, Malik Naseer Ahmad Shahwani, complained about the destruction of agricultural crops in Balochistan with landlords suffering a loss of over PKR 40 billion due to the current drought, restrictions on the use of electricity, curtailed water supply from Sindh and neglect by the federal government.
The Balochistan government had reportedly complained to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) against Sindh province for stealing its water and even threatened to stop water supply to Karachi through the Hub dam.
Incidentally, according to some Pakistani media reports, the Iranian government had also cut off the (July 6) power supply to Makran province in Balochistan without prior information plunging the three districts of Ketch, Gwadar and Panjgur into darkness. (ANI)
Moscow sent a letter to Islamabad on June 7, informing that a Russian delegation wants to visit Pakistan from June 22 for talks…reports Asian Lite News
The fate of Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP), also known as North-South Gas Pipeline, is in the doldrums as the Petroleum Division has started finalizing an alternate gas pipeline project by mid-July putting in jeopardy the ties with Russia, local media reported.
The News International reported that Pakistan and the Russian Federation had signed the amended Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) on May 28 in Moscow on Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline Project (PSGP), now both the countries have to sign the share-holders Agreement (SHA) within 60 days from the signing of the protocol scheduled for July 27.
Moscow sent a letter to Islamabad on June 7, informing that a Russian delegation wants to visit Pakistan from June 22 for talks on the Heads of Terms and Shareholders Agreement with the participation of nominated entities ISGS and “PAKSTREAM” and competent authorities from the Pakistani side. But there was no immediate response from the Pakistan side.
According to the publication, the problems began soon after the signing of the amended IGA. As many as 27 days after the agreement was signed, CCOE (Cabinet Committee on Energy) that met on June 24 asked the Petroleum Division to finalize an alternate gas pipeline project by mid-July 2021, arguing there are massive negative consequences of the delay in the implementation of PSGP and the deadline set by the Supreme Court has already been missed with no imminent possibility of start of work.
“Therefore, an alternate plan needs to be finalized as soon as possible but not later than mid-July 2021,” said the decision of CCOE.
The Petroleum Division carved out an alternate plan under which the Petroleum Division wants to build the LNG-III pipeline under the consortium of Sui Southern, Sui Northern and PAPCO – the company of PARCO.
The Petroleum Division favours the alternate project in case talks with Russia fail on the PSGP/also known as North-South Gas Pipeline. The Petroleum Division’s proposal is based on Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) decision, of January 5, 2018, under which financing was approved for the 1.2 billion cubic feet per day gas (BCFD) capacity RLNG-III pipeline of 1,150 km from Karachi to Lahore through a 42-inch diameter pipeline.
Later, the CCOE decision, the Petroleum Division responded to the Russian letter and informed them of Pakistan’s readiness to negotiate the shareholders agreement.
Meantime, the Special Assistant to Prime Minister Tabish Gauhar has already favoured the Sui Southern and Sui Northern to develop the LNG-III pipeline from Karachi to Lahore in place of PSGP, advocating that the country should not rely on external assistance as it would escalate the cost of the project.
The shareholders agreement and deal on heads of terms with Russia may take more than one and a half years before any ground work can get underway on the project. Besides, the Petroleum Division has made up its mind not to extend the guaranteed rate of returns to Russian side against its 26 per cent shares in Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline.
According to Tabish Gauhar, it has been decided that the government will not provide any sovereign guarantee for profit on any foreign investment in Pakistan in all sectors of economy, whether it is in power and refining sectors.
Furthermore, Pakistani side will also not give the Russian side to look after O&M (operation and maintenance) of the project and wants Sui Southern and Sui Northern to run the operation and maintenance of the project.
“Under this scenario, the forthcoming talks between Pakistan and Russia are not likely to succeed,” sources said and added: “That’s why the Petroleum Division has started finalising its alternate pipeline project.”
Meanwhile, according to the top sources, Russia is sending a 12 member delegation to Pakistan, likely on July 12.
The Russian Federation is negotiating this project with Pakistan since 2015 and has witnessed many upheavals lead to the delay. Reviewing the process since 2015 from change of structures, change in equities up to amendments in IGA, the authorities in Pakistan are found at fault for the delay and not the Russian Federation, The News International reported further. (ANI)
The central bank data on Monday (July 5) revealed that Pakistan’s public debt had increased by Rs 2.89 trillion or 8.23 per cent in 11 months of the fiscal year…reports Asian Lite News
Pakistan’s public debt has increased by over eight per cent in 11 months of the fiscal year ended in June due to increased government borrowing to meet the spending requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic according to government data.
The central bank data on Monday (July 5) revealed that Pakistan’s public debt had increased by Rs 2.89 trillion or 8.23 per cent in 11 months of the fiscal year ended June 30, reported The News International.
The central government’s debt stood at Rs 37.997 trillion at the end of May 2021. The debt amounted to Rs 35.107 trillion in the period ended June 2020.
The debt increased by 10.17 per cent year-on-year in May. It was Rs 34.489 trillion in the period ended May 31, 2020.
Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation (FRDL) Act 2005 defines “Total Public Debt” as debt owed by the government (including federal government and provincial governments) serviced out of consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund.
Rise in public debt is largely driven by the government’s domestic borrowing that has increased 11.95 per cent to Rs 26.065 trillion. Foreign debt was almost flat at Rs 11.931 trillion.
SBP’s data showed that government securities such as the market treasury bills (MTBs), Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs), and Ijara Sukuk (Islamic bonds) remained the preferred choice of borrowing within domestic debt. The major portion of borrowing from domestic sources was carried out through medium- to long-term debt instruments.
Imran Khan-led Pakistan government has allocated Rs 900 billion for the federal public sector development programme in fiscal year of 2022, 38 per cent up from last year. There is a need to contain the budget deficit, targeted at Rs 3.420 trillion or 6.3 per cent of GDP this fiscal year, compared with revised estimate of Rs 3.195 trillion or 7 per cent for fiscal year 2021.
Analysts predict the budget deficit to be in the range of 7.0-7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2022, where part of the shortfall would be covered by cut in expenditures, both current and development. The primary deficit is expected to be in the range of 1.0-1.5 per cent.
The Pakistan outlet claims in its official report that increased level of external inflows from multilateral and bilateral development partners is indicative of their confidence in development priorities and policies of the government, including implementation of reforms in the priority areas of fiscal and debt management, energy sector and ease of doing business. (ANI)
Recalling that the Global Counter Terrorism Strategy was adopted by consensus 15 years ago, Amb Tirumurti said it was a major step forward in maintaining and achieving international peace and security…reports Asian Lite News.
India has cautioned that 20 years after the 9/11 terror attacks, there are attempts to divide terrorism into different categories by adopting new terminologies under the guise of ‘emerging threats’ such as racially and ethnically-motivated violent extremism, violent nationalism, right wing extremism etc.
Participating in the General Debate on the Adoption of Resolution on 7th Review of Global Counter Terrorism Strategy (GCTS), India’s Permanent representative to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said, “Do not take us back to the era of ‘Your Terrorists’ and ‘My Terrorists’”.
Reminding that before 9/11 happened, the world was divided into “Your Terrorists” or “My Terrorists”, he stated, it was only after 9/11 that we accepted that terrorism in one part of the world can directly impact another part of the world and we all came together to fight terrorism collectively.
Global Counter Terrorism Strategy (GCTS), adopted 15 years ago, was a major step forward & now we shouldn’t squander the gains or dilute our collective fight against #terrorism. Call on States to Walk the Talk.
— Amb T S Tirumurti (@ambtstirumurti) July 7, 2021
“20 years later, we are now seeing attempts to divide us once again by adopting new terminologies under the guise of “emerging threats” such as racially and ethnically-motivated violent extremism, violent nationalism, right wing extremism, etc,” India’s Permanent Representative to UN noted.
“I do hope that member states do not forget history and divide terrorism again into different categories and take us back to the era of “Your Terrorists” and “My Terrorists” and erase the gains we have had over the last two decades,” he warned.
Recalling that the Global Counter Terrorism Strategy was adopted by consensus 15 years ago, Amb Tirumurti said it was a major step forward in maintaining and achieving international peace and security.
“The international community acknowledged that the threat of terrorism is grave and universal, and can only be defeated by collective efforts of all UN member states, without any exception,” India’s envoy to UN stated.
“It was agreed that terrorism in all its forms and manifestations should be condemned, there cannot be any exception or justification for any act of terrorism, regardless of motivations behind such acts, and wherever, whenever and by whomsoever committed,” he explained.
“It was also recognized that the menace of terrorism cannot be and should not be associated with any religion, nationality, civilization or ethnic group,” Ambassador Tirumurti highlighted.
“However, it is essential for all member states to not only not squander the gains of what we have achieved so far but also ensure that we do not give the slightest opportunity to provide excuses or justification for terrorism, thereby diminishing our collective fight,” he warned.
“Justifying terrorism in any way, whether on grounds of religion, ideology, ethnicity or race, will only provide the necessary fodder for terrorists to enhance their activities even more,” India’s permanent representative to UN said.
Today, the most serious threats of terrorism, include the misuse of internet and social media for terrorist propaganda, radicalization and recruitment of cadre; misuse of new payment methods such as block-chain currencies, payment wallets, crowd funding platforms for financing of terrorism.
The serious threats of terrorism also include misuse of emerging technologies such as Drones, 3D printing, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics for terrorist purposes have emerged and warrants collaborative actions from all member states.
Acknowledging that the matter of religious “phobias” finds mention in the current document, he said we are once again constrained to point out that this listing has been selective and confined only to the three Abrahamic religions.
Terrorism.
Ambassador Tirumurti pointed out that the august body has once again failed to acknowledge the rise of hatred and violent terrorist attacks against other religions, inter alia, Buddhism, Sikhism and Hinduism.
He said there needs to make a distinction between countries which are pluralistic and those which resort to sectarian violence and trample over minority rights.
The continued absence of a universally agreed definition of terrorism is detrimental to our shared goal of eliminating it. The current strategy fails to resolve the stalemate preventing the adoption of a comprehensive convention on international terrorism, which India has championed.
The sources said Pakistan is in a desperate situation to cleanse its own image and be accepted by the civilised world….reports Asian Lite News
There are sections in the Pakistani society who feel that those of the likes of Hafeez Saeed, Sajid Mir, Asghar Rauf, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi are elements who are solely responsible for the ever deteriorating relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. Hence the possibility of internal groups targeting Saeed cannot be ruled out, sources said.
There have also been serious differences among the various militant group leaders in Pakistan in the past. For instance serious differences had emerged between Lakhvi, the Kashmir operations head of the LeT, and Saeed some time ago, which led to Lakhvi relocating his boys to Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). The blast to target Saeed being a result of such rivalries cannot be ruled out.
Eventually Pakistan needs to realise that Saeed is a designated terrorist and has blood on his hands over the years, they added.
The sources said Pakistan is in a desperate situation to cleanse its own image and be accepted by the civilised world. The clean image exercise will be extremely crucial for Pakistan to be accepted by the west especially at a time when Pakistan will be dependent on the west in order to sustain the security situation in the region post US withdrawal.
In trying to cleanse its image Pakistan would also try to project India as involved in playing spoil sport and disturbing the apparent peace and security in the region. Pakistan would thus try and portray any likely attack on targets “not in the good books of India”, as an act carried out by India, they added.
In the past, Pakistan has been able to generate forged alibi supporting it’s contention of Indian hand in such acts and would most likely do so in this case too. Pakistan has been able to create narratives based on false flag operations through a well coordinated action plan involving the media as well.
The investigation into the recent planted bomb blast in a vehicle parked close to the residence of Mumbai terror attack mastermind and chief of proscribed organisation Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) in Lahore has concluded and has claimed to have found concrete evidence that the attack was orchestrated by the Indian intelligence agency, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) Pakistan’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Moeed Yousaf said that the Lahore blast, aimed at a “high value target” was planned and directed through Indian sponsorship.
“I want to make sure that our message is heard very clearly that this particular incident on June 23 in Lahore. We have concrete evidence and intelligence including financial and telephone records that point to direct Indian sponsorship of these terrorists.
“We have identified the main mastermind and the handlers of this terrorist attack and we have absolutely no doubt or reservation in informing you that the main mastermind belongs to RAW, the Indian intelligence agency, is an Indian national and is based in India,” he added.
Yousaf claimed that the main mastermind has been identified through forensic analysis and electronic equipment recovered from the terrorists.
Sharing more information of the investigation, he highlighted that thousand of cyber attacks targeted at investigative infrastructure were also witnessed after the Lahore terror attack.
“I would also like to say that very unusually we have evidence of thousand of attempt of cyber attacks against our critical investigative infrastructure right after this attack on June 23 in Lahore.
“These attacks and the number and sophistication in some cases leave no doubt the state sponsorship and state linkage in this case. Our cyber security is strong enough that we were able to thwart these attempts,” he added.
Explaining on the reason of these attacks, Yousaf said that these attacks were being carried out by India as it “wanted to buy time to deflect attention and to avoid the attention and capture of these terrorists we managed to do”.
The NSA also claimed that investigations revealed that terror financing, made to execute the Lahore Blast, links were directly originating from India where the money was transferred through third country to Pakistan.
The main suspect behind the attack, who parked the explosives-laden vehicle near the house of Saeed in Joher Town Lahore, the NSA said the man was of Afghan origin and had been raised in Pakistan.
“Eid Gul possessed a local national identity card being issued to Afghan refugees. Let me also say the main executor Eid Gul has an Afghan origin, was here lived in Pakistan, executed this attack and we as a state of Pakistan has been constantly telling this to the world that millions of law abiding Afghan refugees are given a bad name and Pakistan is blamed when these actors go and hide in these refugee settlements. And then, Pakistan is questioned why 1 or 2 people who are terrorists who are miscreants could not be apprehended,” Yousaf insisted.
“I think it is high time that the international community stop turning a blind eye and play a constructive and the legally binding role for the safety of innocent Pakistanis if they really serious about peace and stability in this region,” the NSA concluded.
On June 23, a powerful bomb blast, conducted through an improvised explosive device, planted in a vehicle parked close to Saeed’s resident in Joher town Lahore, claimed at least three lives, while at least 24 others were injured.
It was said that the explosive laden vehicle had at least 30 kg of explosives in it and its aim was to target the residence of the JuD chief.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan appreciated the quick and prompt investigation done by the law enforcement agencies, calling on the international community to take note of what he called “India’s rogue behaviour”.
“I appreciate the diligence and speed of Punjab Police’s Counter Terrorism Department in unearthing the evidence and commend the excellent coordination of all our civil and military intelligence agencies,” he wrote in a tweet.
“Planning and financing of this heinous terror attack have links to Indian sponsorship of terrorism against Pakistan. Global community must mobilize international institutions against this rogue behaviour.”
Opposition leader Bilawal Bhutto called for an investigation into the Pakistani government contact with Israel “done in the darkness of the night,”…reports Asian Lite News
As Pakistani officials work on keeping the Taliban away from India, Prime Minister Imran Khan and his advisors have to try and dodge political bullets with lousy denials of contact with Israel they are finding increasingly hard to conceal, as per an opinion piece in Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
“DIDNOT [sic] go to Israel,” tweeted Zulfi Bukhari, the Pakistani Prime Minister’s Special Assistant on Overseas Pakistanis, on Monday in response to a report in Israel Hayom claiming that Bukhari had visited Tel Aviv in November 2020 to pass on messages from Khan and Pakistan Army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa to Mossad head Yossi Cohen.
In December, the same newspaper reported that a “senior adviser to the leader of a large Muslim majority country” has recently visited Israel.” UK-based counter-terror analyst Noor Dahri tweeted the same day that the November 20 visit was undertaken by an unnamed close aide of Imran Khan, setting off a storm of intrigue in the region and outrage in Pakistan.
Opposition leader Bilawal Bhutto called for an investigation into the Pakistani government contact with Israel “done in the darkness of the night,” and asked about persistent reports that a Pakistan army jet had flown to Amman at the time: “If an airplane did not pick up Zulfi Bukhari then whom did it pick up?”
The report said despite the bluff, it was and is easy to deduce that the November 2020 visitor was Bukhari. He has a British passport and, unusually, is close to both of Pakistan’s centres of power: the civilian head, Imran Khan (tasked with campaigning for critical elections in the Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan-administered Kashmir) and the military leadership (nominated to coordinate with Chinese officials on the strategic China-Pakistan Economic Corridor).
Last year’s report about the Pakistani delegation to Tel Aviv came days after reports resurfaced that Saudi Arabia was putting pressure on Pakistan to formalise relations with Israel. “Senior military and diplomatic officials who told me at the time that Saudi Arabia was arm-twisting over Israel, also confirmed then that Pakistani officials had indeed visited Israel,” the report said.
The report said they have further confirmed that diplomatic engagements have continued into 2021, including a meeting involving no less a personage than Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf, which he inevitably and categorically denied.
The fact is, diplomatic and military engagements between Pakistan and Israel have been a regular occurrence, even in past decades when formalizing ties between the two countries was inconceivable, it added.
Both states being US allies has historically meant intelligence cooperation, mediated or not, between Pakistan and Israel, with even the latest reports of Bukhari’s Tel Aviv visit emerging on the eve of the US hosted ‘Sea Breeze 2021′ naval exercise in which both countries are participating. The two countries’ air forces have also jointly taken part in US-led Red Flag training exercises.
However, today Pakistan is inching towards establishing formal diplomatic relations with Israel not at the behest of the US, but propelled by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the report said.
Shahbaz continued to criticise the Pakistan government for increasing the prices of wheat, petrol, and electricity and said that “Imran Khan has brought the country to the brink of disaster.”…reports Asian Lite News
Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) head and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has criticised the Prime Minister Imran Khan-led PTI government for its “incompetence” and said that the party will ensure that the “illegitimate government” is sent packing.
“People’s hopes and spirits have still not diminished. While Imran Khan represents the undemocratic part of Pakistani politics, the PDM will ensure that this illegitimate government is sent packing,” The News International quoted JUI-F chief as saying at the PDM’s protest rally in Swat on Sunday.
Meanwhile, taking a jibe at Imran Khan, opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif also said that he has left “no stone unturned in destroying the people of Pakistan.”
“Imran Khan had said that he would end corruption from the country within 90 days of coming into power, but nothing happened,” said the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader, during a ceremony of multi-party opposition alliance –PDM at the Grassy Ground in Mingora, Geo news reported.
“The seat of the premier remains empty in the Parliament just like the pockets of the masses,” he said adding that ever since Imran Khan took over, the country has been going through “historical poverty.”
“Inflation has skyrocketed and Pakistan has never seen such a condition before,” he said, adding that despite promising the provision of five million houses for the poor, not a single brick has been laid by the government.
“Imran Khan said he would create 10 million jobs but instead left people unemployed,” he said. “This is certainly not Pakistan that the Quaid-e-Azam had envisioned.”
Shahbaz continued to criticise the Pakistan government for increasing the prices of wheat, petrol, and electricity and said that “Imran Khan has brought the country to the brink of disaster.”
Shahbaz slams Imran
Taking a jibe at Imran Khan, opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif on Sunday said that he has left “no stone unturned in destroying the people of the country.
“Imran Khan had said that he would end corruption from the country within 90 days of coming into power, but nothing happened,” said Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader, during a ceremony of multi-party opposition alliance –Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) at the Grassy Ground in Mingora, Geo news reported.
“The seat of the premier remains empty in the Parliament just like the pockets of the masses,” he said adding that ever since Imran Khan took over, the country has been going through “historical poverty.”
“Inflation has skyrocketed and Pakistan has never seen such a condition before,” he said, adding that despite promising the provision of five million houses for the poor, not a single brick has been laid by the government.
“Imran Khan said he would create 10 million jobs but instead left people unemployed,” he said. “This is certainly not Pakistan that the Quaid-e-Azam had envisioned.”
The PML-N leader also lauded the previous, PML-N-led government and cited comparative statistics, adding that the “old Pakistan” was much better than the “Naya Pakistan.”
Shahbaz continued to criticise the Pakistan government for increasing the prices of wheat, petrol, and electricity and said that “Imran Khan has brought the country to the brink of disaster.”
Earlier this month, Geo News reported the worsening state of Pakistan’s energy crisis, as the country was facing an electricity shortfall of somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000 megawatts.
Unannounced load-shedding has reached its peak in Punjab, including Lahore, due to the electricity shortfall. Unannounced power suspension of up to three to five hours at many places during the last 72 hours had heightened the misery of the public.
Due to the power crisis, besides Lahore, long hours of load-shedding are also taking place in other cities, including Islamabad, Peshawar and Karachi. (ANI)
As per the report, water scarcity in the country has set alarm bells ringing after rivers have dried up due to low rainfall….reports Asian Lite News
Experts have warned that famine-like situation may arise in Pakistan due to the scarcity of water across the country if the issue is not resolved timely, Geo News reported on Sunday.
As per the report, water scarcity in the country has set alarm bells ringing after rivers have dried up due to low rainfall.
Citing the sources, Geo News reported that the per capita availability of water in the country is 1,100 million cubic metres per annum — which is dangerously low — while in Punjab one has to go to a depth of 600 feet to draw groundwater. In the past, one had to go to a depth of 50 feet only.
The report further said that each year, the Kharif and Rabi crops face up to 45 per cent water shortage while the groundwater level in small and big cities across Punjab, including Lahore, has started falling.
Water experts warn that if new water reservoirs are not created and water wastage is not stopped, Pakistan will face a famine-like situation, Geo News reported.
According to water experts, due to increasing population, water loss and climate change, the authorities will have to take immediate precautions, otherwise, famine will be inevitable.
Meanwhile, the President of Pakistan Engineering Congress Amjad Saeed said that the water problem may become more serious in the coming days.
Earlier, in the month of March, according to a Washington-based magazine, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has placed Pakistan at the third position in the list of countries facing acute water scarcity.
Meanwhile, Covid-19 cases in Pakistan continues to rise. With 940 fresh COVID-19 cases and eight deaths in the last 24 hours, Sindh reported the highest number of daily infections since June 2.
The latest COVID count is up from 694 cases, which were recorded a day earlier, according to a statement issued by the Chief Minister’s office on Sunday.
As per Dawn, Sindh logged in 1,041 cases on June 2, while Karachi accounted for the majority with 716 cases reported.
A total of 16,516 samples were tested in the last 24 hours and 157 more patients were recovered from the virus. The provincial total has risen to 3,40,902 cases and the death toll has mounted to 5,520.
Meanwhile, Pakistan reported more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases in a single day for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday. This comes a few days after the country allowed relaxations in business timings and other measures. (ANI)
The need is to sign an Indo-Pacific charter that enshrines the principles that the signatories commit to defending, writes Prof. Madhav Nalapat
Perhaps shortly after he steps down from his office of General Secretary of the most powerful political party in the world, the Chinese Communist Party, but more likely years before, Xi Jinping will realize that the gamble he has taken by placing on steroids the military-to-military cooperation between the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and GHQ Rawalpindi will rank as an error comparable to the 1979 decision of Communist Party of the Soviet Union General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev to invade and occupy Afghanistan by force.
With every passing year, the PRC will get further sucked into the quicksand that the military is making of Pakistan. It will willy-nilly be an accessory to the various methods employed by the Pakistan army against its foes. As a consequence, friends will turn into foes. The bills for the Chinese people will mount, as will the human toll of seeking to prevent the meltdown of a country through boosting the capabilities of the very institution that is responsible for that situation, the higher command of the Pakistan army.
It had been Brezhnev who had announced that the Soviet Union “was prepared to risk World War 3 rather than surrender control of any of its East European satellites”. Neither was Afghanistan ever a Soviet satellite, nor was the Carter administration (with the Russia-centric Zbigniew Brzeziński as its National Security Advisor) going to forgo the opportunity of ensuring that Soviet armies get so mired down in Afghanistan that the CPSU will forget all about waging World War 3 and be forced to concentrate on fighting the Afghan resistance to their illegal occupation. Presidents Carter and later Reagan made the mistake of ignoring moderate Pashtuns and outsourcing the Afghan war to Pakistan, who promptly used only religious extremists to carry out a campaign of attrition that bled Soviet forces incessantly.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) meets with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in Beijing. (Xinhua_Yan Yan)
This US policy put the armed segment of Wahhabism on steroids, an error that the world is still paying a high price for. Sadly, other countries (including in the GCC, who ought to have known better) were prodded by Washington into backing the extremists let loose by the Pakistan army, brushing aside the overwhelming majority of Pashtuns, who are moderate. China, which for several decades has been a force multiplier for the Pakistan military, assisted successive US administrations in the task of crippling the Soviet Union, including in Afghanistan. For such steadfast support to Washington against Moscow, the PRC was richly rewarded by the US and its allies (including Japan and Taiwan) in the form of financial resources, intelligence and advanced technology.
All of this was at the same time being denied to India, except by Japan, which was helpful even after Taiwan under Lee Teng Hui cold-shouldered an informal request for financial accommodation from the Government of India. Despite this snub, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao established “non-formal” diplomatic ties with Taiwan in common with much of the rest of the world, besides correctly recognizing Israel’s support to India by upgrading diplomatic relations to the level of embassies in the respective capitals. India was and still is the world’s most populous democracy, but that cut no ice with President Bill Clinton or his contemporary leaders in the EU, US and Taiwan, who denied even a little of the same favours to India as was thrown away lavishly towards China.
People’s Liberation Army
Much has been said about the evolving Indo-Pacific confluence of countries that oppose the efforts of an authoritarian power under a hyper-confident leader seeking to dominate the Indo-Pacific. Those expected to know better claimed in public that the Quad needed to remain without a military component. Mahatma Gandhi was a saint who saw only good even in the worst of people. During the 1940 and 1941 effort by Adolf Hitler to conquer Britain, his advice to the British was to open the doors of their homes to the Germans, so that soul-force could transform hatred and cruelty into compassion and love.
From the time the Mahatma publicly made this recommendation to the British people, M.A. Jinnah began gaining traction in Whitehall for his formula of “divide before quitting”. The results of that tragedy reverberate across the subcontinent and beyond to this day. This makes more aware of the wisdom of the pacifist Abraham Lincoln conducting a bloody civil war with secessionist (slaveholding) states from 1861 to 1865 rather than accept a divided United States.
Another example of a leadership style, albeit with a very different ethical quotient, was the manner in which Mao Zedong doubled the land area of China through the PLA during the 1940s and 1950s without any opposition from either British India or Free India. Now Xi Jinping seeks to do a Mao, again with the assistance of the PLA and its auxiliaries such as GHQ Rawalpindi. This time around, the lessons of the 1940s and the 1950s (not to mention that of the consistency of the ideological trajectory of the CCP since the founding of the PRC in 1949) seem to have been learnt at least by a few countries. Prime Minister Suga and President Biden, where the challenge of dealing with an expansionist authoritarian state are concerned, seem to have read the tea leaves correctly.
Pak Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chinese President Xi Jinping
Which is why Prime Minister Modi, President Biden, Prime Minister Morrison and Prime Minister Suga need to sign an Indo-Pacific charter that enshrines the principles that the signatories need to commit to defending. Marx said that history repeats a tragedy the next time around as farce. This was in his book on Louis Bonaparte. The Roosevelt-Churchill Atlantic Charter was not a tragedy but a ray of hope showing a future better than that promised by the damp, dark shadow of Hitler.
The Biden-Johnson Atlantic Charter Mark II was a farce that other members of the G7 apparently saw through. If such parodies of statecraft are the efforts of advisors of the US President and the UK Prime Minister, both are soon going to be in trouble where their countries are concerned. The manner in which the Sino-Wahhabi alliance (in which the Sino-Pakistan alliance is a prime mover) is seeking to widen societal faultlines in India and the US in particular through infiltration into social media space indicates the methodical manner in which a superpower whose leadership has been transparent about seeking dominance in the Eurasian landmass and in the Indo-Pacific is aiming its arrows at not just India but the US and indeed the system of democracy.
If both the societies of the two biggest democracies in the world develop faultlines that are ignored much as the collapsed condominium in Florida was, it would be easier, in PRC’s reckoning, to ensure that the system of governance they have preserved for seven decades prevails in a manner that the Soviet system failed to do in 1992. The battle is existential, and unless the Indo-Pacific partners in ensuring free and open passage together with ASEAN and the countries on both sides of the Atlantic understand this reality, the outcome of what may most appropriately (if still not accepted widely) be termed Cold War 2.0 needs to move in a direction that only clarity of purpose and effectiveness in response can assure. The Himalayan massif and the South and East China Seas are part of the same front, and need a unified response, no matter where the challenge next appears, whether this be kinetic or otherwise.
Inclusion in the US State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons’ list could lead to sanction on military assistance and participation in peacekeeping programmes…reports Asian Lite News
In a move that could attract serious sanctions on Pakistan and Turkey and would certainly impact bilateral relations, the US has added both the countries into its Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA) list.
The designation is included in the US State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report. Inclusion in the list could lead to sanction on military assistance and participation in peacekeeping programmes.
The US CSPA is a list of foreign governments, added in the annual TIP report for being found guilty of recruiting child soldiers during the previous year. Police, armed forces, security forces and government supported armed groups are major entities reviewed before any country is added into the list.
As per details in the TIP report and the 2021 CSPA list, the countries includes:
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, Syria, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Yemen.
The 2021 list includes Pakistan and Turkey as the new additions while others have been listed for over 10 years.
A child soldier, as defined by the State Department, is “any person under 18 years of age who takes a direct part in hostilities as a member of governmental armed forces, police or other security forces”.
Pakistan’s inclusion into the list is a serious matter of concern for Islamabad as relations with the Biden administration and the Imran Khan led government have not kicked off on a positive path for the moment. President Joe Biden and Khan are yet to speak to each other, even though Pakistan holds key position in the ongoing Afghan peace process.
The US forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan and have asked Pakistan to provide it access to airspace and airbases to operate from, after exiting Afghanistan.
Pakistan on the other hand, has rejected the US demand, stating that it will not indulge in US’s proxy war.
Top military and intelligence officials from US have been visiting Islamabad recently and have had detailed meetings with the Pakistani military establishment.
Experts say that Pakistan’s relations with US are not at the level, where they used to be previously. Pakistan’s influence on the Taliban, as per experts, is also not like it used to be. However, Pakistan still has connections with the Taliban, which makes its value even more important.
It is known that there were recruitment camps established and operating from Pakistan, where young soldiers were recruited to either fight in Afghanistan or become suicide bombers.
Pakistan maintains that no terror group holds any organised presence on its soil, nor it would allow any group to operate from its soil.
