The PMLN government’s decision to ban Pakistan’s most popular party and charge PTI leaders with sedition has sparked fears of a political clash and potential martial law. Amid economic crisis and security challenges, Pakistan risks severe instability and unrest, writes Dr Sakariya Kareem
The decision of the PMLN government led by Shehbaz Sharif to ban the most popular political party in Pakistan and initiate sedition proceedings against PTI leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former President Arif Alvi has put the country on a disastrous path to a clash between two hybrid political dispensations.
The Pakistan Army, the creator of both hybrid formations, will likely be caught between the two stools, putting the army chief, General Asim Munir, on a more difficult wicket.
General Asim Munir with Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif
The army had created the hybrid regime led by Imran Khan during General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s tenure. When Bajwa fell out with Khan, the artificial edifice collapsed, ironically propelling the former cricket star as a popular political leader among the disgruntled masses, mostly young voters. The country’s fortunes, however, plummeted. When the army got a new chief Asim Munir, there was a deep divide in the military leadership and Munir had several bones to pick with Imran Khan. Munir was keen on punishing Khan and propping up a new hybrid regime with Shehbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa
The move is now unravelling with Imran Khan gaining popular support as the Shehbaz Sharif government, doing the bidding of General Asim Munir, is mounting uncalled-for persecution of the former Prime Minister. The recent Supreme Court ruling in favour of Khan’s party, PTI, has further rattled the army-backed government. The apex court had given PTI the due share of reserved seats in the National Assembly besides recognising it as a parliamentary party. The PTI thus has emerged as the single largest party in the Lower House, reducing the Shehbaz Sharif government’s two-thirds majority in both the Houses. The court’s decision indirectly indicts the government’s desperate efforts to suppress the PTI and its leader. A lower court had earlier given a clean chit to Imran Khan and his wife in the marriage case, undermining the deep state’s concerted attempts to dismember Khan’s party and career.
The move to ban PTI has the nod of PMLN supremo, Nawaz Sharif. This shows a political leader who was once labelled the `Lion of Punjab` has turned into a `jackal` hemmed in by the Generals who do not trust him a bit. If the government goes ahead with this suicidal mission, it will signal the end of PMLN and deepen the divide among the senior and middle-rung leadership of the army. The army is already cut by divisions over PTI and Imran Khan.
Former PM Imran Khan shaked hands with then Lt. Gen. Munir
Many commentators suspect that the move was a strategic ploy to pave the way for martial law. The Generals were uncertain about Shehbaz Sharif’s ability to stabilize the country amidst its severe turmoil. If the situation deteriorates further, Pakistan could face a disaster akin to the 1971 crisis when the country split into two. Alongside political instability, Pakistan is experiencing one of its worst economic crises, leading to widespread poverty and unrest. Security challenges are intensifying across the east, centre, and west, presenting formidable difficulties that won’t be easily resolved. Banning the PTI and imprisoning Imran Khan for an extended period could provoke public unrest, which the Generals might struggle to contain. In this power struggle between hybrid regimes, both the country and the military risk losing whatever remaining prestige and stability they have.
At least 16 army officers including two Major Generals (GOCs) of Lahore, and some brigadiers are already undergoing court martial proceedings, reports Atul Aneja
The military purge in Pakistan has gathered steam to root out supporters of ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan whose early arrest is now on the cards.
Authoritative sources told India Narrative that at least 16 army officers including two Major Generals (GOCs) of Lahore, and some brigadiers are already undergoing court martial proceedings.
As of now, there is silence on the fate of ex-Corps Commander Lahore, who is suspected of involvement in the ransacking of Jinnah House, the corps commanders’ residence in Lahore by insurrectionists on May 9.
There is considerable speculation that former Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Faiz Hameed, is believed to be under house arrest. Some sections in Pakistan consider Gen. Hameed as the mastermind of the mutiny.
As a result of the on-going purge, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen. Asim Munir has emerged strongest in the military establishment following to the May 9 incident.
Gen. Munir initiated the military purge soon after the failure of the rebellion marshalled by Khan and his vast network of supporters. It is learnt that the Pak Army Chief, furious at perpetrator of the May 9 mayhem, fully demonstrated his feelings during his visits to various corps and garrisons after the incident.
Pakistan’s former Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed (Photo Credit Twitter via ANI)
During these visits the Chief of Army Staff apparently exhorted the rank and file to behave professionally, and root out pro-PTI or any other kind of political inclination from their minds.
Gen. Munir’s line of thought was clear-no mercy would be shown towards those complicit in the May 9 attacks, irrespective of their elite status. Even families of retired and serving generals would be in the firing line.
The purge acquired institutional momentum after the four-day formation commanders conference that began on June 4. The press statement issued after the meeting further amplified the intent of the top military brass to root out Khan’s supporters in the military.
Regarding the ex-PM’s fate, India Narrative has learnt that after his arrest which is only a matter of time, Khan would be tried in a military court and is expected to be awarded long prison sentence.
Besides, at least 14 other leaders of Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), including Ijaz Chaudhry, Yasmin Rashid, Murad Saeed, Ali Amin Gandapur, Mehmoodul Rashid, Ali Nawaz Awan, Hassan Niazi, Alia Hamza, Kanwal Shozab, Khadija Shah, Aleema Khan, Sheharyar Afridi are also expected to be tried under the Army Act.
The moves would be in tune with the declaration by the formation commanders that “while the legal trials of perpetrators and instigators have commenced, it is time that noose of law is also tightened around the planners and masterminds who mounted the hate ripened and politically driven rebellion against the state and state institutions to achieve their nefarious design of creating chaos in the country”.
By trying the kingpins of the May 9 rebellion under the Army, Khan and his coterie would be unable to seek relief from the judiciary including the Supreme Court, who would have no role in trials in the military courts.
As reported by IN the military is miffed by the role of Pakistani judiciary especially the Supreme Court of Pakistan, including Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial and the Lahore High court, which has shielded Khan and his top lieutenants.
On the political front, the much-touted tigers of the PTI are gathering as herd under the umbrella of Jehangir Khan Tareen (JKT)’s Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP). The IPP includes Khan’s one-time loyalists including Ali Zaidi, Imran Ismail, Fawad Chaudhry, Murad Raas, and Kayani among others.
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PTI chief Imran Khan said “Army Chief General Asim Munir is worried that if I come to power, I will de-notify him.”
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan has blamed the army chief for his “abduction” on May 9 and distanced himself from violence that took place in several cities after his arrest.
He expressed these views while having brief conversation with media persons on the premises of the Islamabad High Court on Friday, reports Dawn.
“It’s not the security agencies. It’s one man, the army chief. There is no democracy in the army. The army is getting maligned with what is happening,” the PTI chief replied when asked about the impression that security agencies were against him whereas the judiciary was favouring him.
“And he (the army chief) is worried that if I come to power, I will de-notify him. Which, I tried my best to send him a message, I will not. All this is happening is direct orders from him. He is the one who is convinced that if I win, he will be de-notified,” alleged Khan.
The former premier also talked about “victimisation” of his party by the government, alleging that “5,000 people have been arrested during the last one year”, Dawn reported.
If your internet was off and there is one video you want to watch.
Khan said he had survived two assassination attempts and had only called for an investigation, regretting that his demand had been rejected.
Reiterating his position which he took in the Supreme Court on Thursday evening, the PTI chair said he was totally unaware of the developments which took place after his arrest and claimed that he had learnt that 40 people had lost their lives during the two-day protests.
Expressing “sadness” over the events that took place when he was in the custody of NAB, Khan stated that “the army is getting maligned because of just one man”, Dawn reported.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.(photo:instagram)
Imran Khan’s survival is partly due to the soft corner that some generals have for the former prime minister. In a real sense, the incumbent Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir’s task is now to stitch up unity within the ranks of the top echelons of the Pakistan Army and ensure that Imran Khan is kept out of the electoral contest expected to be held this year … A special report by Dr Sakariya Kareem
That former Prime Minister Imran Khan has managed to survive thus far in the turbulent landscape of Pakistan’s politics is a function, both of his tenacity and continued support from elements within the Pakistan Army. This is the reason why Imran Khan remains out of judicial confinement. The political drama surrounding the former PM recently witnessed a bizarre incident when he was seen outside a court in Lahore wearing a makeshift bulletproof helmet that looked like the black hood, fully guarded by four men with bulletproof shields and an aide guiding him to an anti-terror court for seeking an extension in bail in three of the scores of cases registered against him.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief was shot in the leg during a political rally in Wazirabad (November 2022) and since then travels under tight security. Imran Khan knows that his battle against the establishment could well lead to his assassination, especially with Asim Munir as the Army Chief.
A video of the same has gone viral on social media and show security guards holding up bulletproof shields around him, and Imran Khan wearing a makeshift bulletproof helmet resembling a black hood pulled over the head of a death row prisoner before hanging. An aide can be seen in the video guiding Imran Khan towards the court because it was difficult to see through the slit in the bulletproof helmet, according to Geo News. Khan entered the Anti-Terrorism Court(ATC) under heavy security because the judges had made his appearance in person for the appeal for an extension of bail as a condition of his release on bail. Notably, Imran Khan was granted interim bail by a Lahore ATC in three cases and his bail was extended till 13 April 2023 in the three terrorism cases registered against him.
According to Geo News, Khan is currently embroiled in more than 140 cases related to terrorism, murder, attempted murder, and blasphemy that the PMLN-led coalition government has registered against him over the past 11 months. Earlier, in March, the Lahore High Court LHC granted protective bail to Imran Khan in the ATC case and directed him to approach the relevant court in this matter. Imran Khan, who arrived at the court, wrote in his petition seeking interim bail that he wants to be involved in the probe but fears arrest by the police, reports The News International. Khan had been granted bail by the ATC with a condition that he post surety bonds of PKR 100,000 in each instance and cooperate with the investigation and appear at all scheduled hearings. While Imran Khan is currently out on bail, the incumbent government and deep state would ideally like to see him behind bars. The objective is to ensure that he does not fight the elections due to be held sometime later this year.
Photo of Asim Munir when he was Lieutenant General in the Pakistan Army.
One of the reasons why Lt. Gen. Asim Munir was chosen to be the Army Chief after Qamar Bajwa was because when the former was DG, ISI, he had objected to some of the activities of the then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s wife. An angry Khan ensured Gen. Munir’s ouster from the ISI in haste. However, while Munir is against Imran, there are others within the establishment who are in his favour. One of them is Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, also a former DG ISI.
According to Pak media reports, General Hameed was involved in an attempt to prevent Gen. Asim Munir from becoming the Army Chief. The bottom-line is that Gen. Hameed played a key role in supporting and sustaining the Imran Khan government, which is why Imran Khan was keen to appoint Hameed as the COAS.
General Qamar Javed Bajwa has admitted in a recent interview that he had ignored a few of Hameed’s “unauthorised acts” as DG, ISI. Hameed was part of a Whatsapp group of Generals, judges, bureaucrats, and political leaders which manipulated events in the country. The latest episode, part of an unravelling series of stories, is related to an attempt by Gen. Hameed to block the possible selection of Gen. Asim Munir as the new chief. Hameed along with four other Generals were in the queue for the top post in the Pakistan Army.
An investigation carried out by Pakistan’s central citizen database, National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), found that some senior officers of the agency were involved in extracting personal information about Gen. Munir’s wife and international travels of the family. During this time, a junior data entry operator at NADRA, Farooq Ahmed, allegedly accessed the data of a female family member of Gen Asim Munir Shah and collected the family’s details and identity card numbers.
Pakistani President Arif Alvi (L) meets with chief of army staff Asim Munir in Islamabad, capital of Pakistan. (PID/Handout via Xinhua)
This data was later used in the Federal Investigation Agency’s (FIA) Integrated Border Management System (IBMS) to track the international travel destinations of the family. The News International reported that the NADRA leak was calculated to block the chance of Gen. Munir becoming the new COAS. Further, he was projected as a Shia officer. The NADRA inquiry was ordered by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif after he got a communication from Saudi Arabia that attempts were being made to label one of the main contenders for the COAS, General Munir, as a Shia officer and hence not fit for the top military position.
The Dawn newspaper reports that conspiracy occurred in October 2022, when five senior Lt-Gen’s, including Munir and Hameed, were being mentioned as possible contenders. The inquiry into the data leak was supervised by Brigadier (Retd.) Khalid Latif, a senior NADRA officer. He was later found to be a close aide of Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed. Latif was then replaced by another senior officer, Ali Javaid. The inquiry found two NADRA officers, Khalid Anayatullah and Amir Bukhari, as the key players behind the data leak, both disclosed that close relatives of the contenders for COAS had sought their help in accessing the data. The other senior General allegedly involved in the conspiracy was Lt. Gen. Azhar Abbas, the then Chief of General Staff.
Abbas had the support of other officers belonging to the Kakul Military Academy who were opposed to Munir as he had completed his training from the Officers Training School (OTS). Abbas is said to have objected to Gen. Bajwa who in turn conveyed the same to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Former PM Nawaz Sharif who was also consulted point blank refused to entertain anything against Gen. Munir. Gen. Abbas reportedly then threatened a coup and the government quickly approached Lt. Gen. Shahid Shamshad and offered him the post of Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). Lt. Gen. Shamshad was at that time commanding 111 Brigade, also known as the ‘coup brigade.’ Investigations by Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau reveal that other officers involved in the conspiracy were the former head of ISI Islamabad office, Colonel (Retd.) Liaquat Ali Waseem and Lieutenant Colonel (Retd.)
former Director General, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt Gen Faiz Hameed.
Asif Mehmood, both close to Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed. Waseem and Mehmood were involved in accountability cases against PML-N leaders on behalf of Hameed. The extent of Lt. Gen. Hameed’s network of conspirators can be gauged from the group’s involvement in the leakage of sensitive meetings at the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) between Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, his principal secretary Dr. Tauqeer Shah, Maryam Nawaz, and other senior ministers. These conversations took place in September 2022. During the investigation by the Intelligence Bureau, the main culprit was found to be the Prime Minister’s Aide-De-Camp (ADC), Major Arsalan. Arsalan was ADC to Lt. Gen. Hameed when he was DG, ISI. When Hameed was transferred to Peshawar, he positioned Major Arsalan as the then Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ADC. By the end of November, Hameed knew that he was under scrutiny and therefore, decided to retire prematurely from the Army. In March 2023, the Shahbaz Sharif government initiated a corruption probe against Gen. Hameed.
It is interesting how former PM Imran Khan built a network within the Pakistan Army to ensure his survival. However, eventually, the Army realised that Imran had become a liability and needed to be discarded. This suited the Army Generals, except for Gen. Hameed and his colleagues. Imran Khan’s survival today is therefore partly, due to the soft corner that some generals have for the former prime minister. In a real sense, the incumbent Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir’s task is now to stitch up unity within the ranks of the top echelons of the Pakistan Army and ensure that Imran Khan is kept out of the electoral contest expected to be held this year.
