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Uplifting tale of a borderland farmer

Hangthing is a local resident of Noklak. When he was born, Noklak’s primary agricultural output consisted of paddy and other vegetables grown utilising antiquated, time-honoured techniques…reports Jayant Ahuja

From collecting seeds of fruits thrown away by the shopkeepers & planting them on his farmland, to living his dream of becoming a farmer with a difference, today he has three thriving nurseries of different varieties of fruit trees and spices, honey, and ever-evolving fish ponds and nurseries which cater to markets across the border in Myanmar and also local buyers. Hanthing Lusha, a native of Noklak, Nagaland, is the focus of this tale. He is credited with single-handedly revitalising the local economy within his community and spreading his ideas among fellow border dwellers. Jayant Ahuja tells us the uplifting tale of a borderland farmer who lives high in the mountains.

On Tuesday morning, November 9, last year, I reported to the office of the Noklak District Commissioner. This peaceful town in Nagaland’s rural interior is where the Mahatma Gandhi National Fellowship (MGNF) first took me. As I entered the gates of Noklak a pretty little girl with a ponytail, playing with her younger brother, welcomed me with pleasant giggles and energetic waves. The district of Noklak is relatively new, having been established only in January 2021. To its right, the district veers toward the border with Myanmar. Khiamniungan and Tikhir are two eastern tribes that live there.

There was a piercing knock on my door on my second day of work. A man of middle age stood there, a smile beaming across his face. He entered the building, made some small talk, and immediately got to work. “Sir, I need an oil-pressing machine. Can you help me with it?” he inquired. That’s how I got to meet Hangthing Lusha, a forward-thinking farmer in Noklak who also happens to be a philanthropist and a man who simply never quits.

Hangthing is a local resident of Noklak. When he was born, Noklak’s primary agricultural output consisted of paddy and other vegetables grown utilising antiquated, time-honoured techniques. When he was just ten years old, he already had a vision of himself cultivating fruit crops. In the past, he had seen that the prices of fruits sold at the community market were far more than the prices of their own produce. That turned out to be a subject of intrigue for him, which he was determined to solve. He began by gathering the seeds of the fruits that were being thrown out by the shopkeepers and putting them on the property that he owned for farming. Because he lacked the necessary technical knowledge, he was doomed to failure.

Hangthing made the decision to begin his nursery in the sweltering summer of 1988, using whatever resources he already possessed. During the first few days, he tried out a lot of different things. He utilised a wide variety of methodologies, including varying the time of sowing, the intervals between watering, the depth of seeding, and much more. For the first seven years of his life, he was unable to earn even a single dime. The crop never produced an amount that was satisfactory enough to compete with the fruits that were transported to the Noklak market from Dimapur and Assam.

When he mentioned his plans to produce fruit crops in the Noklak paddy fields, he received a lot of ribbing from the locals. Concern and uncertainty pervaded the minds of the local farmers when it came to planting fruit trees and spice shrubs. It’s because they’ve never been shown the world beyond their little neighbourhood. We can only grow rice because we eat rice, as Hangthing puts it. When confronted with this line of reasoning, he never gave an inch. He was unsuccessful but kept trying, much like a sailor who has been caught in a storm and is desperate to see land again. His passionate ambition to help his family from poverty was his driving force. His hard labour and never giving up attitude did bear fruit. Hangthing remembers with fondness the time he sold his first sapling to the soil department for a mere twelve rupees. Those first 12 rupees he made felt like millions of dollars. His character is demonstrated by his decision to reinvest those 12 rupees in the nursery. Those mocking lips were actually reaching out to him for assistance, and he was never one to turn somebody away. He grew litchi trees, coffee plants, and even cardamom at his nursery. He also tried experimenting with apple trees, but due to the unfavourable agro-climatic conditions, he was unable to nurture them.

In the beginning, he sold his seedlings, young fruit trees, and fruits straight from his nursery. Soon after, he reached out to serve the surrounding community. He has just lately diverged into the honey business, and he sells his product straight to the state government. His customers in Dimapur purchase the cardamom from him personally. Aside from local customers, Hangthing also sells his fish and fish seeds to customers in Myanmar. He was always generous despite his business focus. He advised innumerable farmers on how to establish fruit tree orchards, and he even gave out saplings to the needy. With his help, Noklak now has three successful nurseries, up from just one before. His success in any endeavour drove him to teach others how to achieve the same level of achievement.

Hangthing came from a poor family. His father and mother had been paddy farmers their entire lives. They used to perform jhum cultivation and so did not own any land. They could only afford to send him to school until the seventh grade. However, he has never believed that a lack of advanced education has anything to do with making money.

He now earns 4-5 lakhs per year, up from 500 rupees per month after seven years of no income. His profits not only lifted his family out of poverty but also elevated them to the comfortable upper middle class. The comfort did not prevent him from pushing himself further. He began by building a farmhouse, which he now rents out to tourists. To augment his agricultural revenue, he began growing fingerling fish. He established a Farmer Producer Organisation (FPO) called Noklak Agro Fed Producer Company to better manage his operations and assure the benefit of all. It is a 150-member FPO principally engaged in the cultivation and sale of cardamom and fruit crops. Hangthing also founded an organisation called the Taste of Noklak in honour of his spouse. Noklak flavour is used in food processing and soap production. They manufacture the most delicious ginger candies!

After accomplishing so much in his life, his desire for more led him to my office. His next battle will be to produce vegetable oil and millet oil. I doubt he will stop there as well. He gave me a preview of what Noklak would teach me over the next two years. Despite all of the obstacles, such as a lack of proper education, repeated failures, poverty, or an inward-looking society, he has consistently come out on top. Hangthing has demonstrated that efficient tools are not required to make something big. What distinguishes them is their efficient use of whatever resources they have at their disposal.

The steep hills that make up eastern Nagaland are responsible for producing a population that is rich in grit and determination because of this. For such beings, the world outside is their classroom, and the Dao (a traditional tool that can be used for a variety of purposes) is their writing tool. The next generation needs to understand the significance of not only the pen but also the Dao. Because true advancement can only be found when a healthy equilibrium is maintained.

ALSO READ-Natural farming and mindful living

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Myanmar next in line in China’s debt-trap diplomacy

China stepped into Myanmar after the military coup led to a political and economic crisis in Myanmar along with poverty and high rates of unemployment…reports Asian Lite News

China is using the diplomatic isolation of Myanmar post the military coup of February 2021, eyeing the rich natural resources of the country, Mizzima News, a Burmese multimedia news organisation reported.

China stepped into Myanmar after the military coup led to a political and economic crisis in Myanmar along with poverty and high rates of unemployment. The Myanmar generals have bartered natural resources, including gas, timber, jade and copper, with China for its diplomatic support and investments. Consequently, China obtained massive gas fields and land for the Kyaukphyu port and the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Rakhine State for free, according to Mizzima News.

According to Mizzima News, the dragon, the apostle of development, chooses to take underdeveloped nations for a ride and later arm-twists them into making diplomatic and economic concessions. In the case of Myanmar, its much-touted “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” translates into actuality as “Capitalism with socialist characteristics” wherein maximisation of profit displays a reckless disregard for humanity at large.

China in Myanmar continues with its mal intentions by promoting the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) through Myanmar to help assert economic and military domination in the Indian Ocean. As only it can give China access to both the Indian and Pacific oceans at the same to fulfill the perceived encirclement of its borders, according to Mizzima News.

Adding to this the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) has gripped Myanmar. Under the project a transport corridor comprising roads, railroads and special economic zones from Kunming in China’s Yunnan province to Myanmar’s west coast. It includes a deep-sea port as part of the BRI in Kyaukphyu, to which the junta is extending much-needed assistance.

China has recently been able to establish a shipping route which links the new Beibu Gulf Port in Guangxi Province in the South China Sea to Yangon. Along with this China is also stressing on development of industrial zone on the border of Shan state and Kachin state. And this route stands vital as the route is the only way to 80 per cent of oil and gas imports in the country and can play a vital role in the development of the Chinese Navy in the area.

The media of China however is ready to cover everything up. According to Mizzima News Xinhua, China’s official news agency, was quick to clear the decks for legitimising Myanmar’s authoritarian regime by branding the coup as a “Cabinet reshuffle”, even as the military junta was globally put in the dock. (ANI)

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EU to target Myanmar with fresh sanctions

The EU has also listed members of the Union Election Commission and business representatives of private companies closely connected and supporting the Tatmadaw….reports Asian Lite News

In view of the continuing escalation of violence and grave human rights following the military takeover two years ago, the European Council has adopted the fifth round of restrictive measures.

The new listings target 19 persons and one entity, including the Minister of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations Kan Zaw, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Htun Htun Oo, and high-ranking members of the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and Air Force.

The EU has also listed members of the Union Election Commission and business representatives of private companies closely connected and supporting the Tatmadaw.

“The State Administration Council is also included as it plays a central role in undermining democracy and the rule of law in Myanmar/Burma as well as in actions that threaten the peace, security and stability of the country,” the European Council said in a statement on Tuesday.

Restrictive measures currently apply to a total of 84 individuals and 11 entities. Those designated are subject to an asset freeze and a travel ban, which prevents them from entering or transiting through EU territory. In addition, EU persons and entities are prohibited to make funds available to those listed.

A demonstrator stacks bags on a street as a barricade during a demonstration against the military coup and the detention of civilian leaders in Myanmar(ians)

“Other EU restrictive measures will remain in place: the embargo on arms and equipment and export restrictions on equipment for monitoring communications which might be used for internal repression, the export ban on dual-use goods for use by the military and border guard police, and the prohibition of military training and cooperation with the Tatmadaw,” the statement added.

These measures complement the withholding of EU financial assistance to the government of Myanmar and the freezing of all EU assistance, a tool that might be perceived as a means to legitimise the junta. Two years ago, on November 8, the National League for Democracy obtained overwhelming and incontestable popular support in the general elections in Myanmar/Burma. The civilian government was overthrown by the Myanmar military on 1 February 2021.

Brussels: Flags of the European Union fly outside the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 21, 2021. (Xinhua/Zheng Huansong/IANS)

The EU said it is deeply concerned by the continuing escalation of violence and the evolution towards a protracted conflict which has spread across the country and has regional implications.

The 27-member bloc also condemned the continuing grave human rights violations including torture and sexual and gender-based violence, the continued persecution of civil society, human rights defenders and journalists, attacks on the civilian population, including ethnic and religious minorities, and the destruction of private property by the Myanmar armed The EU said it would continue to strive to bring to justice all those responsible for the human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the wake of the 1 February 2021 coup in Myanmar.

The EU said it reiterates the calls for an immediate cessation of all hostilities, respect of international humanitarian law, and an end to the disproportionate use of force. (ANI)

ALSO READ: Myanmar’s Suu Kyi hit with new jail term

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Myanmar’s Suu Kyi hit with new jail term

Prior to Wednesday’s ruling, the court had sentenced a total of 23 years in imprisonment for 12 other convictions, and after the recent verdict, the total prison time went to 26 years…reports Asian Lite News

Myanmar’s ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Wednesday was sentenced to three years in jail for corruption, bringing her total prison time to 26 years.

The Mandalay Region High Court handed down the sentence at a junta-controlled closed court in the Naypyitaw Detention Centre, News Agency, Myanmar Now reported.

The allegations were made by the businessman Maung Weik, who in video testimony recorded by the junta in March 2021 accused the State Counsellor of accepting more than USD 550,000 in bribes on the four occasions they met between 2018 and 2020.

Businessman Weik said in a statement that was no one when he gave the money to Suu Kyi.

However, at a hearing on May 31, he testified that he gave the funds in question to an official from the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a charity run by Suu Kyi and named after her late mother, according to Myanmar Now citing a source in Naypyitaw who is familiar with the court proceedings.

Notably, prior to Wednesday’s ruling, the court had sentenced a total of 23 years in imprisonment for 12 other convictions, and after the recent verdict, the total prison time went to 26 years.

According to Myanmar Now, businessman Weik is known to have formed close relationships with members of the military’s inner circle and to have operated a range of business enterprises through his connections to Myanmar’s generals. It is pertinent to mention that Maung Weik’s wife is also the niece of Myint Swe, the former military-appointed Vice President who the junta named as acting President following the February 2021 coup that ousted Suu Kyi’s elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government, reported Myanmar Now.

Earlier, on September 29, a special Myanmar military court sentenced the country’s deposed leader and members of her economic team to three years in jail. San Suu Kyi’s team included Australian economist Sean Turnell who was imprisoned for violating the Official Secrets Act, The Irrawaddy news website reported.

Turnell, a former key economic adviser to Suu Kyi, was detained by the Mynamar military shortly after last year’s coup, which ousted the National League for Democracy (NLD) government.

Back in August, she was handed a six-year sentence for four corruption charges after the military accused her of abusing her position as party leader to benefit a private foundation named after her mother, Daw Khin Kyi, as well as an affiliated project.

Notably, the military detained Suu Kyi in February 2021 as it seized power in Myanmar.

Myanmar’s military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is the one who led a coup against an elected civilian government in 2021 and detained Aung San Suu Kyi over alleged election irregularities. In August last year, Min Aung Hlaing declared himself Prime Minister of a newly formed caretaker government. During an address to the nation on August 1, he repeated a pledge to hold elections by 2023. (ANI)

ALSO READ: ‘China may use Pakistan as proxy to arm Myanmar junta’

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India News

Stalin urges PM to rescue Indians ‘held’ in Myanmar

The Tamil Nadu government is in contact with some of the trapped Indians who are desperately trying to escape their forced captivity by criminal elements in Myanmar..reports Asian Lite News.

Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K. Stalin on Wednesday reached out to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking his urgent intervention to rescue around several hundred Indians from Myanmar where they are believed to be in illegal captivity.

In his letter to the Prime Minister, Stalin stated that around 300 Indians, including 50 persons hailing from Tamil Nadu are facing severe hardships in Myanmar after being forcibly taken there from Thailand.

The Tamil Nadu government is in contact with some of the trapped Indians who are desperately trying to escape their forced captivity by criminal elements in Myanmar, Stalin explained.

“It is informed that they had initially gone to Thailand for IT related jobs through private recruitment agencies. It is now understood that they were forcibly taken from Thailand, to Myanmar for carrying out illegal jobs online. Further, reports are being received that they are physically assaulted by their employers on their refusal to do so,” Stalin noted in his letter to the Prime Minister.

Tamil Nadu chief minister requested the Prime Minister to instruct the Ministry of External Affairs to take up the issue with the Myanmar authorities and ensure immediate and safe repatriation of the Indians held in illegal captivity there.

Earlier, several politicians from Tamil Nadu political parties such as the PMK, MDMK and VCK had raised the issue on Tuesday.

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B’desh-Myanmar border tension: Dhaka pins hopes on ASEAN

The envoys have assured that they will inform their headquarters to raise the issue at the UN….reports Sumi Khan

Authorities in Dhaka have informed envoys of the ASEAN member nations on the ongoing tense situation along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, seeking their cooperation to stop the violence that may destabilise the whole region.

The development comes after a Rohingya man was killed on September 17 as mortar shells fired from the Myanmar side hit the no-man’s land, Five others were also injured in the incident.

In a similar incident on August 28, two mortar shells from Myanmar also landed in Bangladeshi territory.

“We told them that Myanmar should not be allowed to destabilise the whole region and create obstacles for the Rohingya repatriation,” acting Foreign Secretary Admiral (Retd) Khurshed Alam said after a briefing on Tuesday morning.

He said Bangladesh has asked the envoys to take actions so that the falling of mortar shells and bullets from Myanmar side does not happen anymore.

The envoys have assured that they will inform their headquarters to raise the issue at the UN.

They also appreciated that Bangladesh has been handling the issue diplomatically, “not getting into the trap of Myanmar’s provocation”, Alam said.

The shooting and bombing by Myanmar military and Arakan Army since early August have been creating panic in the Bangladesh side of the border, he said, adding: “We told them that, please take actions so that the conflicts do not create any pressure on the Bangladeshis.”

On Monday, the Foreign Ministry of Bangladesh summoned the Myanmar Ambassador in Dhaka and lodged a protest over the violence.

Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen said Myanmar Ambassador U Aung Kyaw Moe was summoned and a strong protest was lodged through a diplomatic letter.

“We asked him so that recurrence of such incidents does not happen in the future. We strongly protected this incident,” Momen said.

Also on Monday, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal said “no more Rohingya will be allowed to enter the country”.

“We are facing problems with the Rohingya refugees in our country. So, we won’t allow more Rohingya to enter our country,” he said.

“We are a peaceful country. We don’t want to disturb anyone’s peace. We always want to maintain peace.”

Meanwhile, U Zaw Phyo Win, a top official at Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry, called in Manjurul Karim Khan Chowdhury, Ambassador of Bangladesh to Myanmar, to speak about the situation at the border.

The Myanmar official blamed the Arakan Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Group (ARSA) for the recent incidents of cross-border shelling to create “negative consequences” on the existing “cordial bilateral relations” between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

He also claimed that on September 7, the Bangladeshi side was notified of the information of the trenches and bases of the AA and ARSA militants located “inside Bangladesh” through diplomatic channels and reiterated Myanmar’s call to take necessary and immediate actions to investigate on the ground and dismantle those structures and bases.

ALSO READ: ‘Hefazat-e-Islam poses challenge for Bangladesh’

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Myanmar’s Suu Kyi imprisoned for three more years

She was already sentenced to 17 years’ imprisonment for these offences, and now faces 20 years in jail…reports Asian Lite News

Two days after Myanmar’s former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has been sentenced to three years in jail for electoral fraud in 2020, increasing her total prison term to 20 years, the Information Team of Myanmar’s State Administration Council confirmed.

She, along with former President U Win Myint and former Union Minister of Union Government Office, U Min Thu, was found guilty of electoral fraud, said the information team on Saturday.

Before this, Aung San Suu Kyi has been convicted of multiple charges, including corruption, incitement, breaching the Natural Disaster Management Law, breaching the Export and Import Law and breaching the Communications Law.

She was already sentenced to 17 years’ imprisonment for these offences, and now faces 20 years in jail, Xinhua news agency reported.

On Feb. 1, 2021, U Win Myint, Suu Kyi and some senior officials of the National League for Democracy were detained by the military.

Trials over more charges against Suu Kyi will follow.

ALSO READ: Moreh along Indo-Myanmar border an example of inter-faith harmony

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India News

Moreh along Indo-Myanmar border an example of inter-faith harmony

Apart from being a trade hub, Moreh is infamous for being the main transit corridor for drug trafficking in Manipur and other northeastern states….writes Sujit Chakraborty

Moreh along the India-Myanmar border in Manipurs mountainous Chandel district is not just an international trading hub but a cosmopolitan place where people belonging to the Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Jain faiths from different parts of India have lived together for decades in complete harmony.

Thousands of Tamils, Nepali, Bihari, Rajasthani, Bengali, Punjabi besides Manipur’s Meitei communities belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Jain faiths have lived together peacefully for decades in this border town, 110 km south of Manipur capital Imphal and just four km west of Myanmar’s biggest border town Tamu in Sagaing region.

After the people of the Nepali community were settled here by the British much before 1947, the Tamil people since 1964 converted the once nondescript and densely-forested border area into a trading hub between India and Myanmar using their century old Myanmar connections.

The Tamils, Nepalis, Punjabis and other non-Manipuri people speak Manipuri and Myanmarese fluently apart from their mother tongue.

They run varied businesses while a few are engaged in cross-border trade through the land route between India and Myanmar.

However, the India-Myanmar trade and business through the Moreh-Tamu border using the Moreh Integrated Check Post (ICP) has been stopped since March 2020 after the Covid-19 outbreak.

A Manipur government official told IANS that the External Affairs Ministry’s Border Management (BM) Division in mid May sent an advisory to Manipur Chief Secretary Rajesh Kumar to resume the India-Myanmar border trade, but the military administration of Myanmar is yet to respond positively.

“For the Tamil people of Moreh, the period from the sixties to the early nineties was a Golden Age. We had experienced very good cross border trade and business. With the decline in the official border trade along with other factors, life here has become very tough,” said K.B.S. Manian, Secretary of Tamil Sangam, an association of Tamils in Moreh.

He said after Chinese goods become available in Myanmar, the Myanmarese though they liked Indian goods are no longer interested in buying them due to the price difference.



“Till 1992, the number of Tamils was around 10,000 in Moreh but now it has come down to around 3,500. The declining border trade, collection of ‘taxes’ by insurgent outfits, Naga-Kuki ethnic conflict and other problems have forced many traders and others settled in this border town to return to their native places in South India,” Manian told IANS.

People of other communities including Nepali, Punjabi, Bihari, Bengali, Rajasthani are facing similar problems in Moreh.

“However, we the people of all communities and multi-faith Indian citizens are living in harmony. During festivities, irrespective of religion and caste, all the people take part in them.

“Tamils observe Pongal and Fire Walking festivals while the others celebrate other festivals throughout the year,” said Manian, 63, who is the principal of the Netaji Memorial English High School set up in 1967 by the Tamil Sangam.

Tamil women in Moreh embrace their traditional culture despite being far from their native place.

Run by Tamil Sangam, there are three other schools for the Tamil students in Moreh, which can be called as a mini Tamil Nadu in Manipur.

The Tamils are primarily traders of products from their native place such as lungis, saris, food items, various domestic items and more.

Small eateries serving hot dosas, sambar vada and idlis dot the roadsides of Moreh while shops sell clothes, house decor and religious items and other products.

Moreh is also a famous tourist destination of northeast India.

Marking it as a place of religious harmony, there are Temples, Masjids, Churches, Gurudwaras and other religious shrines in Moreh.

Tamils in both Moreh and Myanmar are bonded by ethnicity, as their ancestors were first taken to Yangon by the East India Company as workers along with people from Punjab, Bengal, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.

A majority of the Tamils returned to India and made Moreh their home after the military junta toppled the government in 1962. There are very few Tamils left in Myanmar’s Tamu and Yangon.

As the British empire declined in 1948, this Tamil community’s fortunes began to decline too. During the military regime, the Tamil population there was forced out of the country.

Tamils in the then Burma (now Myanmar) were predominantly involved in rice cultivation, trade and other work.

Apart from being a trade hub, Moreh is infamous for being the main transit corridor for drug trafficking in Manipur and other northeastern states.

Assam Rifles troopers and other security forces often seize drugs including heroin and the highly addictive methamphetamine tablets, commonly known as ‘Yaba’.

Considering its strategic location, ICP Moreh has the advantage of acting as India’s gateway to the eastern neighbours through the Moreh-Tamu border point, which is presently the only feasible and operational land route for trade between India and Myanmar and other South East Asian countries.

The ICP Moreh, spread over a total area of 45.58 acres and set up in 2018 at an estimated cost of Rs 72.67 crores, is situated along the proposed 1,360 km long India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway.

The India-Myanmar Friendship Bridge in Moreh connects India to Kalewa in Myanmar’s Sagaing Division.

Traders on both sides of the border are keen to resume the India-Myanmar trade through the Moreh and Mizoram’s Zokhawthar (closed for many years) trading points to curb the rampant illegal trade in various items, especially the highly addictive drugs.

Moreh in Manipur and Zokhawthar in Mizoram are the two important international trading points along the 1,643-km long India-Myanmar unfenced border.

The Mizoram-based International Trade Initiative Forum (ITIF) recently urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mizoram Governor Hari Babu Kambhampati to resume trade with Myanmar through the Zokhawthar border point

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Myanmar civil war: Is there an end?

Despite the junta using brutal methods like scorched-earth tactics and a war of attrition against the resistance, it has not been able to consolidate its position in the country, particularly in small towns and rural areas, writes Baladas Ghoshal

After nearly a year and a half since the military junta led by army chief General Min Aung Hlaing seized power and formed the State Administration Council (SAC) in Myanmar, the country is steeped in a civil war with no end in sight. There seems little possibility of reconciliation between the junta and large-scale resistance groups, which are gradually increasing their operational capabilities with the help of the old detractors of the military regime.

Apart from the traditional Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Ta’ang National Army (TNLA), the Myanmar army – also called the Tatmadaw, faces hundreds of local defence forces (LDFs) and urban guerrilla cells. Despite the junta using brutal methods like scorched-earth tactics and a war of attrition against the resistance, it has not been able to consolidate its position in the country, particularly in small towns and rural areas. Peoples militia in the form of Peoples Defence Forces (PDF) and Local defence Forces (LDF) have been somewhat successful, in organising alternative governance structure in their own areas.

Though it may sound a bit exaggerated, the assessment of the situation in the country, according to an observer from the International Crisis Group (ICG) is that 200 townships out of 330 have formed an alternative governance structure. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are also expanding their territory of operation independent of the Tatmadaw’s control. From an initial status of a weak rag tag formations without any major weapons and equipment, the resistance groups have now developed formidable strength to throw a challenge to the Tatmadaw.

Opinions among the observers vary, as no one knows the exact situation within the country.

Those who get their feedback from the sources of the National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow government put up by the resistance groups, are overly optimistic about the strength of the opposition and even hope the Tatmadaw may lose its grip on power.

Reports coming out from Myanmar say, it appears the Tatmadaw is now stretched very thinly, and is relying on the police force, intelligence agencies and ad hoc militias to help enforce its will over the population. Reports of military casualties are doubtless exaggerated, but security force losses are high enough to raise questions about the attrition rate, and the sustainability of key military formations.

Apparently, the Tatmadaw looks like a strong force with 500,000 men and great resources at its disposal, control over the economy and business interests, but in reality it has just about 100,000 combat forces. Also, it has to fight a vast array of armed resistance groups across the entire country, particularly in large fronts on the North and North-west of the country.

Twenty different Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) are now increasingly coordinating with the LDFs and the PDFs. This does not, however, mean the resistance groups will be able to overwhelm the Tatmadaw and score a victory over it anytime soon or later. It only means that the security situation within the country has changed in recent months.

The resistance still lacks weapons, equipment and expertise. More importantly, it lacks air power, which the junta uses generously to inflict damage on the resistance. But it is now better organised, better trained and better armed. It reportedly consists of some 259 PDF units, with approximately 80,000-100,000 members. In addition, there are around 250 local defence groups, and 400 other ‘guerrilla forces’ (a term that seems to include both rural guerrilla bands and urban resistance cells), that broadly support the NUG’s aims. The NUG claims that it now controls half of Myanmar, (although this seems to include large areas under the sway of EAOs).

Its leaders speak of ‘going on the offensive’. They also point to growing contacts with foreign governments and international organisations. None of these have formally recognised the shadow government or promised lethal aid, but the junta is becoming increasingly isolated and on the defensive. This is evident from junta leader Min Hlaing’s recent visit to Russia where he had gone to shop for more fighter aircraft against the resistance. The momentum seems to be with the resistance.

At the same time, it will be wrong to make any objective assessment of the situation in Myanmar based on NUG’s tall claims alone. Reports coming out of the country are one-sided, which may not truly reflect the actual situation on the ground. That said, some noted Myanmar-watchers are now revising their pessimistic forecasts. A number has acknowledged that the Tatmadaw is on the defensive, and struggling to meet the challenges posed by the armed resistance. The recruitment of ad hoc militias, the training being given to soldiers’ wives, the use of policemen for military duties and attempts to strike peace deals with the EAOs all suggest a regime under pressure.

Even if the regime is under pressure, it can still withstand the challenge from the resistance groups as long as the Tatmadaw remains largely loyal and cohesive, and as long as the generals continue to be backed by Russia and China, it is hard to see them being defeated by force of arms.

Andrew Selth, an Australian analyst puts it aptly: “The junta may lose control of the country’s periphery (a situation past governments have encountered) and it will face serious challenges elsewhere, but it should still be able to survive in the ethnic Bamar heartland. The regime is clearly in difficulties, but it does not have to win the war to remain in power. It just has to avoid losing it.”

Under the circumstances, political and military stalemate will continue for some time, possibly even years. The situation can of course change if there was a significant shift in the strategic environment, say if a major Tatmadaw combat unit mutinied, or if a foreign government provided the PDF with modern arms, like shoulder-fired missiles.

However, at this stage, such scenarios remain hypothetical. As long as the Ukraine war continues and the world is seized with that, there is hardly any possibility of any foreign government materially supporting the resistance groups with arms and ammunitions without which it would not be in a position to make any fundamental change in the military situation.

The chances of a negotiated settlement are bleak as neither side is in a mood to compromise. The junta has vowed to ‘annihilate’ the opposition movement, which it describes as terrorists, while the NUG has formally declared war on the military regime and rejected any suggestion of a negotiated settlement. “For both sides, the goal is total victory, but such an outcome is likely to prove a chimera,” to quote Selth again.

Myanmar’s problem does not rest only with the political and military solution. The resistance groups consist of diverse groups, each having their own agenda and their own vision of the future state of Myanmar but currently united against a common enemy-the Tatmadaw. Even if they are able to defeat the Tatmadaw hypothetically and the common enemy disappears, differences are likely to appear in the ranks of the resistance as to the future contours of the government and the State. For the time being they have agreed on a Federal Charter but implementing it to the satisfaction of all stakeholders would be a difficult task.

Myanmar’s struggle for democracy accommodating aspirations of diverse groups and formation of an equitable federal government structure is going to be a long drawn out struggle and will require unity among the stakeholders based on compromises.

(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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EU slams execution of Myanmar’s pro-democracy leaders

They will only exacerbate the polarisation, violence, and dramatic humanitarian situation in Myanmar…reports Asian Lite News

The European Union has strongly condemned the execution of Myanmar’s former NLD Member of Parliament Phyo Zeya Thaw, prominent activist Kyaw MinYu, as well as Aung Thura Zaw, and Hla Myo Aung by the southeast Asian country’s military regime.

“These politically motivated executions represent yet another step towards the complete dismantling of the rule of law and a further blatant violation of human rights in Myanmar. The four men were the first prisoners to be executed in Myanmar in more than three decades, a move that is contrary to the overall worldwide trend to abolish the death penalty,” the office of the High Commissioner said in a statement, adding that the EU is fundamentally opposed to the death penalty “as an inhumane, cruel and irreversible punishment that violates the inalienable right to life”.

“The executions are reprehensible acts that show that the military authorities have no respect for the life or dignity of the very people they are supposed to protect. They will only exacerbate the polarisation, violence, and dramatic humanitarian situation in Myanmar.

“The EU stands unequivocally with the people of Myanmar and their aspirations for freedom, and urges the military regime to end all acts of violence without further delay and calls for the unconditional and immediate release of all those arbitrarily detained, as well as to return to a democratic path,” it said.

“We will continue to support all efforts by the United Nations and ASEAN to this end,” the statement said.

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