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Oil, gold prices rise amid Iran-Israel tensions

The benchmark Brent crude price rose to around $90 a barrel U.S. West Texas hovered at around $85 a barrel…reports Asian Lite News

Oil and gold prices have jumped amid reports of Israel launching a missile attack against Iran raising fears of escalating geopolitical tensions that could disrupt crude shipments. Oil prices surged by $3 a barrel in the international market on Friday.

The benchmark Brent crude price rose to around $90 a barrel U.S. West Texas hovered at around $85 a barrel. The price of Brent crude had fallen to around $87 per barrel on Wednesday following higher US inventories and the decline in Chinese demand due to a slowing economy. The gold price often rises at times of uncertainty as it is seen as a safe investment, BBC reported. US media reports on Friday said that Israeli missiles had hit sites in Iran.

The attack was reported to be in retaliation to Iranian drone attacks on Israel carried out earlier. However, Iran denied reports of the Israeli missile attack and claimed that the explosions heard were from the firing of its air defence systems. Since India imports over 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement, a sharp increase in global oil prices could lead to an increase in the country’s oil import bill and weaken the rupee due to the larger outgo of foreign exchange.

The cheaper purchase of oil from Russia has helped India to reduce its oil import bill by 16 per cent to $132.4 billion for the fiscal year 2023-24 from $157.5 billion spent in the previous year. The total quantity of oil imported in 2023-24 was 232.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) compared with 232.7 MMT in 2022-23 which is more or less the same level. Xxx UK sanctions Iran’s military figures, entities The UK has announced sanctions on a further seven individuals and six entities who it said “enabled Iran to conduct destabilizing regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel”.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Thursday that the UK has sanctioned the ringleaders of the Iranian military and forces responsible for the April 14 attack, Xinhua news agency reported. Iran has said the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s strike on Iran’s consulate building in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. The sanctioned individuals and entities are subjected to asset freeze, with a concurrent imposition of a travel ban targeting the individuals under sanction. This adds to the 400-plus sanctions already imposed on Iran, the UK government said in a statement. Previous sanctions include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in its entirety and many of those allegedly responsible for the attack on Israel. The decision by UK follows European Union decision on new sanctions targeting Iran for the direct attack on Israel. The EU has decided “to put in place sanctions against Iran”, European Council President Charles Michel told reporters in the early hours of Thursday morning after the first day of a two-day summit. “The idea is to target the companies that are needed for the drones, for the missiles,” he said. Further details are to be finalized, he added. “The European Union will take further restrictive measures against Iran, notably in relation to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles,” the EU leaders’ statement said.

The EU summit on Wednesday and Thursday was originally meant to focus on the bloc’s economy and its competitiveness. But rising tensions in the Middle East pushed the economic discussion into the second day’s agenda. EU leaders appealed for calm as Israel weighed a response to the drone and missile attack from Iran on Saturday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had urged Israel not to retaliate against Iran with a “massive attack of its own” on his arrival. Scholz called on Israel to now use the successful defence against Iran’s missile and drone attack “to strengthen its own position in the entire region.” On this basis, “a corresponding military response would certainly not be appropriate,” he said. Iran said the drone and missile attacks were retaliation for the killing of high-ranking Iranian officers in a missile strike on Iran’s embassy in Syria at the start of the month. Sanctions may be imposed through a regime set up after Iran began supporting the Russian war on Ukraine by supplying Moscow with drones. These sanctions banned the export of components used for the construction and production of unmanned aerial vehicles to Iran, and may be expanded to make it harder for Iran to produce missiles. Calls from Israel to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite unit of the Iranian armed forces, as a terrorist organization are more difficult to meet.

The IRGC would first have to be prosecuted by a national authority for terrorist activities under EU law to prompt this sanction. Scholz said however a recent court ruling in the EU, concerning the activities of the IRGC, is being examined by EU officials. This could open the way to a terrorist designation for the IRGC, Scholz said. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said his country would support sanctions on the IRGC.

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Oil demand will grow 2.25 million bpd: OPEC

OPEC+ had earlier agreed to keep current oil production levels unchanged….reports Asian Lite News

 The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Thursday that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025, Reuters reported.

In its monthly report, OPEC predicted robust fuel use in the summer months and stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, highlighting an unusually large gap between predictions of oil demand strength.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ had earlier agreed to keep current oil production levels unchanged.

During the meeting which took place via videoconference today, the JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of January and February 2024, noting to the high conformity for participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).

The Committee welcomed the Republic of Iraq and the Republic of Kazakhstan pledge to achieve full conformity as well as compensate for overproduction. The Committee also welcomed the announcement by the Russian Federation that its voluntary adjustments in the second quarter of 2024 will be based on production instead of exports.

The JMMC stated that participating countries with outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February and March 2024, will submit their detailed compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 30th April 2024.

The Committee noted that it will continue to monitor the conformity of the production adjustments decided upon at the 35th ONOMM held on 4th June 2023, and the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries in April 2023, and the subsequent adjustments in November 2023 and February 2024.

The Committee further stated that it will continue to closely assess market conditions and noted the willingness of the DoC countries to address market developments and their readiness to take additional measures at any time building on the strong cohesion between OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries.

The next meeting of the JMMC (54th) is scheduled for 1st June 2024.

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Venezuela to supply oil to India in lieu of pending dividend

This comes after the US eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in October. The sanctions were imposed to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election…reports Asian Lite News

Venezuela has agreed to supply crude oil to ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) in lieu of the pending dividend, Secretary Petroleum Pankaj Jain said.

“They have agreed to give us some oil in lieu of its pending OVL dues. We are waiting for lifting dates,” the Petroleum Secretary said.

This comes after the US eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in October. The sanctions were imposed to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election.

Earlier, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that India will buy Venezuelan oil, adding that Indian refineries are capable of processing the heavy oil from the South African country.

Speaking to reporters at an event, Puri stated that New Delhi is willing to resume oil import with any nation that is not under sanction.

“India will buy Venezuelan oil. Many of our refineries including one in Paradip are capable of processing heavy oil from Venezuela. We are willing to resume (oil import) with anyone who is not under sanction,” he had said.

“We are in a situation where we are using crude oil 5 million barrels/ per day. And it is increasing every day. If Venezuela oil comes to market we will welcome it,” he added.

India last imported Venezuelan crude in 2020 when the U.S. imposed secondary sanctions on the nation. The U.S. imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election.

The South American country is producing some 850,000 barrels per day (BPD) of crude with a target of soon reaching 1 million BPD.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, has embarked on a strategic journey to reshape its energy landscape.

As a nation heavily reliant on overseas oil, accounting for over 80 per cent of its needs, India aims to curtail its crude import bill and bolster its refining capabilities.

This pursuit has led India to explore diverse sources, and one country that has caught its attention is Venezuela.

Venezuela, a historical player in the global oil industry, has been producing oil since 1914. With proven oil reserves of 299,953,000,000 barrels, as of 2016, Venezuela stands as one of the world’s leading holders of oil reserves, representing about 18.2 per cent of the global total.

India, eyeing opportunities to diversify its oil sources and strengthen its refining capabilities, is keenly exploring collaborations and partnerships with Venezuela. (ANI)

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Oil Hits $95/Barrel Amid Supply Worries

Oil is being driven up by concerns of a supply deficit, following recent output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia…reports Asian Lite News

Oil price is continuing its march towards $100 a barrel for the first time in almost a year, creating new inflationary headaches for central bankers, a media report said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, pushed over $95 per barrel on Tuesday, the highest since November 2022, The Guardian reported.

Oil is being driven up by concerns of a supply deficit, following recent output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Brent crude began 2022 below $80 per barrel, before soaring to around $130/barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine last February — fuelling the surge in inflation last year, The Guardian reported.

Higher oil prices risk making inflation more persistent, just at a time when central bankers are inching towards ending their cycle of rising interest rates. The US Federal Reserve may leave borrowing costs on hold on Wednesday, though the Bank of England may vote to hike again on Thursday.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, predicts that oil demand will weaken should prices continue to rise over $100/barrel.

Schieldrop said, “The overall situation is that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in solid control of the oil market. The global market is either balanced or in deficit and both crude and product stocks are still low.

“Thus, we have a tight market both in terms of supplies and inventories, so there should be limited downside in oil prices. We are highly likely to see dated Brent moving above $100/barrel. It is now less than $5/barrel away from that level, and only noise is needed to bring it above,” The Guardian reported.

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OPEC sticks to oil demand growth forecasts

OPEC said this year’s global oil demand, expected to reach 102.1 million bpd, will surpass pre-COVID-19-pandemic levels…reports Asian Lite News

Robust global oil demand growth has been forecast in 2023 and 2024 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), thanks to “resilient” global economic growth.

In its monthly oil market report for September, published on Tuesday, OPEC said it expected world oil demand to rise by 2.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, and by 2.25 million bpd next year.

This represents annual growth of 2.45 percent this year, and 2.2 percent in 2024. The forecasts remain unchanged from last month.

OPEC said this year’s global oil demand, expected to reach 102.1 million bpd, will surpass pre-COVID-19-pandemic levels.

The oil producer group said that despite numerous challenges, including high inflation, elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions, “ongoing global economic growth is forecast to drive oil demand, especially given the recovery in tourism, air travel and steady driving mobility.”

“In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption,” it added.

In the monthly report, the organization also stuck to its previous forecasts for world economic growth: 2.7 percent in 2023, and 2.6 percent in 2024.

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Supply Cuts by Saudi, Russia Could Push Oil to $107

That announcement lifted Brent crude oil above $91 a barrel for the first time in 10 months…reports Asian Lite News

Oil prices could climb well into triple-digit territory by next year if Russia and Saudi Arabia do not unwind their aggressive supply cuts, warns investment bank Goldman Sachs.

The Wall Street bank had already factored in the possibility of high oil prices long before Russia and Saudi Arabia announced, earlier this week, that they were extending production cuts through the end of 2023, CNN reported.

That announcement lifted Brent crude oil above $91 a barrel for the first time in 10 months.

Brent crude is the world’s oil price benchmark and is produced in the North Sea.

Goldman Sachs had forecast Brent oil to be $86 in December and $93 at the end of 2024.

Now, the bank says it sees “two bullish risks” to its prediction.

First, Goldman Sachs expects Saudi oil supply to be 500,000 barrels per day smaller than previously anticipated. That alone should add $2 to the per-barrel price of oil.

Secondly, the bank warned that some of its assumptions for oil production may be incorrect if the OPEC+ cut extensions continue.

It had expected that in January the countries would bring back half of the 1.7 million barrel per day cut that was announced in April, CNN reported.

Now the bank is floating the possibility of an even longer extension.

With Chinese manufacturing data finally bouncing back to growth in August, the bearish sentiment is gaining the upper hand in oil markets right now.

In the meantime, Russian seaborne crude and product exports fell to their lowest since September 2022 as strong domestic demand in the summer kept volumes available for external markets capped, the report said.

Delivering on their promise to cut exports by 500,000 bpd in July-August, Russian flows to India decreased by 30 per cent  to 1.5 million bpd, just as Urals has been trading above the oil price cap threshold of $60 per barrel since early July, the Oil Price report said.

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OPEC expects 2.2% growth in oil demand in 2024

The world economic growth in 2023 is to remain broadly unchanged at 2.6%, according to the organisation, with the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth expected at 2.5%…reports Asian Lite News

OPEC Thursday predicted world oil demand to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, to 104.25 mb/d in 2024, raising its 2023 forecast to 2.4 mb/d, following an upward revision of about 0.1 mbn/d from last month’s assessment.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the global organisation said the World GDP growth in 2024 is forecast at 2.5%, slightly below this year’s expected growth level of 2.6%.

“Key oil-consuming countries, including China and India, along with some other developing economies in Asia, will continue their healthy growth levels and be responsible for around half of next year’s global economic growth. This is under the assumptions that general inflation will continue retraction in 2H23 and 2024. Tight monetary policies are also assumed to continue and key policy rates to peak by the end of 2023. Moreover, central banks are expected to engage in more accommodative monetary policies by 2H24.”

The world economic growth in 2023 is to remain broadly unchanged at 2.6%, according to the organisation, with the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth expected at 2.5%.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised up in the report by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2022. Based on the initial world oil demand and non-OPEC supply forecast for 2024, demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 30.2 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d higher than the 2023 level.

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Shell’s exit sparks domino effect fears in Pakistan

The oil major’s announcement might set the ball rolling for other foreign investors too to look at exiting Pakistan or halting operations temporarily, a report by Mahua Venkatesh

Pakistan’s economic crisis is further deepening with Shell Pakistan announcing the exit of oil major Shell Petroleum Company from the South Asian nation after 75 years. This has come as a big blow to the country which is struggling to attract investment to boost its economy. The announcement might set the ball rolling for other foreign investors too to look at exiting the country or halting operations temporarily.

Either way this will make the road to economic recovery even tougher for the cash starved nation. As more and more companies exit or downsize their operations in Pakistan, the level of unemployment will only rise.

Almost all multinational companies have run into huge losses due to massive depreciation in the Pakistani rupee. Earlier car manufacturer Honda announced halting operations.

The oil sector is one of the worst affected by the ongoing crisis. That apart, the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors have also been brutally impacted.

According to local news organisation Daily Duniya, Pakistan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 23 per cent this year to touch $17 billion compared to the previous year. The largest share of FDI poured into Pakistan from China. But in the last few months, China’s investments into Pakistan have been thinning with the rising political uncertainty in the country.

Import restrictions and dwindling foreign exchange reserves have added to the problem. To save forex reserves, the State Bank of Pakistan-the country’s central bank-has imposed stringent restrictions which have made it tough for the MNCs to remit dividends to shareholders outside the country.

The sharp depreciation of the Pakistani rupee has also led to a massive erosion of the value of the dividends.

“The country needs to provide an investor friendly business regime to attract foreign direct investment..this includes a stable political and security environment too. But the situation in Pakistan is just the opposite,” an analyst told India Narrative. The analyst added that the situation is getting worse. “There is no hope that the situation will improve anytime soon,” he added.

Pakistan Business Council (PBC) CEO Ehsan Malik earlier told the Express Tribune that the delay in remittances sends a “very negative signal to the potential (foreign) investors.”

(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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Oil giants slash production

The Saudi Ministry clarified that the decision is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the global oil market….reports Asian Lite News

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry has announced a voluntary oil cut of 500,000 barrels per day from May till the end of 2023.

The production cut is in coordination with some other countries of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation, said the Ministry in a statement on Sunday.

It noted that the voluntary cut is in addition to the reduction in production agreed upon at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on October 5, 2022, Xinhua news agency reported.

The Ministry clarified that the decision is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the global oil market.

Iraq to cut oil output by 211,000 bpd

Iraq will voluntarily cut oil production by 211,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of this year, the country’s Oil Ministry said in a statement.

The move is a “precautionary measure” taken in coordination with some countries of OPEC+, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to stabilise the global oil market, it added on Sunday.

Ministry data show that Iraq is producing more than 4.5 million bpd, Xinhua news agency reported.

Oil prices have risen since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February last year, benefiting oil-exporting countries, including Iraq. However, oil prices declined in the past few months due to fears of lower demand in global markets.

Iraq’s economy relies heavily on crude oil exports, which account for more than 90 per cent of the its revenue.

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‘India’s approach to oil import guided by energy security requirements’

On September 2, G7 Finance Ministers initiated a price cap on Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products to be implemented by each coalition member in the wake of Russia-Ukraine war…reports Asian Lite News

India’s approach will be guided by energy security requirements with regards to importing oil, Ministry of External Affairs said on Thursday even as media reports suggested divergence of opinion in some Western capitals over keeping the the price cap on Russian crude at $60 a barrel.

“We have repeatedly made it clear that our approach will be guided by our energy security requirements,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said at the weekly media briefing in response to queries concering price cap. Earlier in December, G7 nations and Australia reached a consensus on a maximum price of 60 USD per barrel for seaborne Russian-origin crude oil in line with the decision by the Member States of the European Union to endorse a price level for the price cap on seaborne Russian-origin crude oil, according to the statement released by G7 nations and Australia on Australia’s foreign office website.

Ukraine says pace of Russian troops ‘slows significantly’.(photo: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua)

On September 2, G7 Finance Ministers initiated a price cap on Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products to be implemented by each coalition member in the wake of Russia-Ukraine war.

“The price cap on Russian-origin crude oil will enter into force across our jurisdictions on December 5, 2022 or very soon thereafter. Our respective regulations are expected to include a time-limited exception for transactions involving oil that is loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading prior to 5 December 2022,” G7 nations and Australia had said in a statement.

Russia is now India’s top oil supplier. (ANI)

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