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Beijing Ponders Next Move As Taiwan Stands Firm

China hit back almost immediately after Taiwan elections by announcing on January 15 that Nauru was switching recognition from Taiwan to Beijing….reports Asian Lite News

Following the Taiwanese people’s refusal to buckle to Chinese coercion in the January 13 elections, voting back into power the incumbent Democratic People’s Party (DPP) with its new leader Lai Ching-te, opinion varies as to what Beijing’s next course of action will be.

Will China make a precipitative military move against Taiwan, or will it continue its policy of incessant coercion? China’s reaction has been rather subdued so far, though this does not preclude more vigorous actions before Lai assumes office in May.

Notably, though, China hit back almost immediately by announcing on January 15 that Nauru was switching recognition from Taiwan to Beijing.

Taiwan now has diplomatic ties with just twelve nations as China picks off its allies one by one. Nauru asked for “massive economic assistance,” according to Taiwan, but Taipei cannot compete with China in this regard.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning denied that money exchanged hands: “Those who see ‘dollar diplomacy’ as a go-to tool need to understand that there are things that money cannot buy.”

One wonders what China can offer Nauru other than money. In some respects, then, it is better for Taiwan to shrug off the burden of countries who value money more than morals.

Nonetheless, this marked a setback for the USA, for President Joe Biden has been working hard to rally nations in support of a “rules-based international order”. Nauru is a tiny nation of just 12,500 inhabitants, but China has gained a sharp win there against the wider run of play.

Wendell Minnick, a veteran American defence analyst based in Taiwan, is pessimistic about cross-strait ties. Indeed, he thinks China will act militarily this spring (i.e. March-May), catalysed by the DPP’s election win.

“This could be the beginning of ballistic-missile strikes and cruise missile strikes on command-and-control nodes, radar, air defence batteries and the utter destruction of airbases. Xi is growing old quickly and wants a legacy that brings Taiwan back into the bosom of Mother China. He wants to be the Father of Modern China–to take down Mao’s picture at Tiananmen Square and replace it with his own. He is a man. He is not a win-win negotiator. He wants to be beloved by the nation for the next 100 years.”

Minnick added that the lunar-solar calendar is perfect for military operations around April-May, which leaves “summer for fighter and bomber aircraft to clean up the scraps, then the amphibious invasion in the autumn with the lunar-solar calendar holiday of Ghost Month.”

The latter period is when conditions in the Taiwan Strait calm again and become more conducive to amphibious operations.

However, it will be a massive challenge for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to cross this “moat” that separates Taiwan from the mainland.

China is encountering severe challenges that might cause Chairman Xi Jinping to take irrational actions. As tsar Vladimir Putin demonstrated with his fateful invasion of Ukraine, the twisted calculus of leaders in autocratic countries often does not correspond with logic.

Xi might calculate that his window of opportunity is narrowing, or that he needs a national crisis to bind China around him.

One disconcerting issue is China’s economy, which is deeply unwell.

Last year, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell in dollar value to about USD 17.5 trillion. This was the first drop in almost 30 years, and China’s share of world GDP slipped to slightly less than 7 per cent.

In yuan terms, China’s GDP rose by more than 4.5 per cent, but this ignores a sharp drop in the yuan’s value.

In 2023, America’s GDP rose 6 per cent to about USD 27 trillion. The gap between the respective GDPs of the USA and China grew by USD 2 trillion last year, which is set to widen unless China’s economy turns a corner.

George Magnus, an economist at the China Centre, Oxford University, and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, commented: “Given (what) we know about population shrinkage, debt capacity constraints, weak governance and the political awkwardness of market reforms, China’s tech prowess islands are not the saviour. Only a real policy shift can do that, and the government is in stasis.”

He added that this year will therefore be important policy-wise. The bite of reality is a far cry

from Xi’s New Year message that the economy had “sustained the momentum of recovery”.

Taiwan-China flag

Another looming issue is demographics. China’s population is shrinking; the birth rate contracted 5.7 per cent last year to reach the lowest in modern China’s history – and the death rate in 2023 was the highest it has been since 1974, during the throes of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution.

With 280 million citizens aged over 60 (a figure that will increase 30+ per cent over the next decade), China is facing a ticking demographic time bomb.

However, many would disagree with the dire warnings from the likes of Minnick in Taiwan.

For example, Professor Rex Li, Research Affiliate of the Lau China Institute, King’s College London, assessed: “Although China has not recognised the legitimacy of the Lai government, it is unlikely that it will opt for a military solution to the Taiwan issue for the time being.

Most analysts believe that China does not yet possess the full military capability to take over Taiwan by force, especially if it has the backing of the United States. In addition, China is currently facing considerable economic difficulties due mainly to the recent COVID lockdowns. Beijing is also keen to stabilise its relations with Washington following the Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco in November 2023.”

Li concluded, “It can be expected that Beijing will continue to exert economic and military pressure on Taiwan and constrain its international activities where possible. But China would try to avoid a major armed conflict with Taiwan, which might trigger an unpredictable reaction and intervention from the US.”

Leading figures in the US armed forces concur with this viewpoint.

For instance, Admiral John Aquilino, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), said at a Pacific Forum conference in Hawaii in mid-January that he expected the PLA to put on a show of “force against Taiwan in the near term”.

“The pressure campaign against Taiwan continues, and we’re watching it in the wake of the elections…Their actions over the past number of years have been pretty consistent. When something occurs that they don’t like, they tend to take action.”

An obvious example is the PLA’s reaction to then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan.

Admiral Aquilino predicted that China would also manipulate events so as to put the blame on American shoulders. He suggested Beijing would “attempt to spin it in the information space as the United States as the aggressor. I don’t know how you connect those dots, but they’re pretty effective in the information space. Doesn’t have to be true. They’ve just got to say it enough times.”

The INDOPACOM commander also commented on China’s increasingly aggressive actions farther south. Its “expansive claims in the South China Sea are not just thoughts anymore. What we are seeing as it applies to Second Thomas Shoal and our Philippine partners is that the rhetoric and the actions, whether they be lawfare, information warfare or physical actions, are now enforcing or attempting to enforce that illegal claim.”

Separately, General Charles Flynn, commander of the US Army Pacific, described recently at the Irregular Warfare Forum in Virginia how China is seeking to disrupt American regional influence.

“The Chinese are trying to disassemble, fragment and fracture a network of allies and partners that the United States enjoys globally, but definitely in the Indo-Pacific. And they’re working every day.”

The American commander said China is on a “very, very dangerous path. The PRC’s immediate goal: prepare the operational environment for the seizure of Taiwan, full stop.”

If conflict erupts, it is essential that Taiwan already have in place the military equipment that it needs, for the PLA could effectively blockade the island and prevent American resupplies from reaching Taiwan.

Taiwan needs to strengthen its mobile air defences and drone fleets with much larger quantities; such asymmetric capabilities strengthen its “porcupine strategy” designed to deter China by imposing an unacceptable level of loss and risk on the PLA.

Taiwan is taking actions to deter China militarily, but these are often done under sufferance. This month, Taiwan’s military conscription period extends from four months to twelve for 18-year-old males, after the USA pressured Taipei to raise the duration.

Conscription is deeply unpopular in Taiwan but, faced by recruitment issues, conscription is the only way to fill out the armed forces.

Bloomberg Economics, in an effort to quantify the cost of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – came up with a figure of USD 10 trillion, equating to about 10 per cent of global GDP.

Taiwan is the leading maker of advanced-logic semiconductors, and global supply would be hard hit.

Of course, it is impossible to accurately predict the cost of a conflagration involving Taiwan.

Regardless, Bloomberg predicted a 40 per cent drop in GDP for Taiwan in the first year, -16.7 per cent for China, -6.7 per cent for the USA, and -10.2 per cent for the world.

However, military adventurism is fraught with risk for China, especially an operation as complex as an amphibious invasion. Xi still does not have confidence in the PLA, with serious question marks about the loyalty and capability of the Rocket Force in particular at present.

Of course, the loss of Taiwan to Chinese military conquest would be horrendous. Apart from the tragedy of a democracy being swallowed by an authoritarian regime, a Chinese presence on Taiwan shatters the so-called First Island Chain of containment upon which the USA’s whole defensive strategy depends.

PLA forces garrisoned in Taiwan would have instant access to the Western Pacific, threatening maritime and aerial routes from the USA to Japan, South Korea and all American military bases there.

It was Sir Walter Raleigh who said, “Whoever commands the sea, commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world, commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.”

China would be able to control all seaborne trade heading to and from economic powerhouses like Japan and South Korea.

Taiwan already has de facto independence, but this means the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is fed up with the status quo. “Reunification” is a stated national goal, and it has become a point of pride for Xi.

China was visibly angered that nations like Japan and the USA should congratulate Taiwan’s Lai on his recent election win, though interestingly, Biden’s first comment was, “We do not support independence.”

Separate from military pressure, China has plenty of other tools at its disposal. For instance, it can economically pressure Taiwan with measures such as fining Taiwanese companies in China, cancelling tariff reductions, banning certain imports from Taiwan, or restricting individual tourism.

Xi advocated stronger United Front efforts to win Taiwanese hearts and said in an article published by the CCP’s Qiushi magazine: “The patriotic, unifying forces in Taiwan should be developed and empowered. Separatist acts for Taiwan independence should be rejected. The full reunification of the motherland should move forward.”

Beijing will continue to exert undue influence, and the fact that the DPP won only 40.5 per cent of the votes (compared to 57.13 per cent in 2020) might encourage the CCP in thinking that the more amenable Kuomintang party might win the next election.

During an official visit to Egypt, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Taiwan independence seriously threatens the wellbeing of Taiwan compatriots, seriously damages the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation, and will also seriously undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. It is a dead end and a path to ruin. China will eventually achieve complete reunification and Taiwan province will surely return to the embrace of the motherland.”

Such sweeping talk illustrates the absurdity of Taiwan’s international status – it is unrecognised by the United Nations and ostracised at every opportunity by China.

China has no power or sovereignty over Taiwan’s physical territory, yet it continues to force the rest of the world into maintaining a fiction about Taiwan’s actual status. The CCP is imposing its will and a falsehood on the international community, with far too many being afraid to upset China. (ANI)

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Taiwan’s Electoral Slam on China’s Influence

In this election, Taiwan expressed its “common desire” to not get closer to the “motherland” by handing victory to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which won a record third term….reports Asian Lite News

As much as it fumed and vented, China could not prevent Taiwanese citizens from heading to polls on January 13 to choose their new government and president, Lai Ching-te.

Ultimately, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could only remonstrate about Taiwan’s supposed illegitimacy and how this democratic state will one day be folded into its steely bosom.

The CCP, in its fantasy-world sagacity, could say of the election results: “It cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island. Taiwan is China’s Taiwan.” China remains in complete denial. How dare Taiwanese people, who have never been ruled by the brutal CCP regime, vote! How dare they choose to remain a democracy-loving nation!

Chen Binhua, spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council had this to say: “This election cannot change the basic pattern and development direction of cross-strait relations, nor can it change the common desire of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to get closer and closer, nor can it stop the general trend that the motherland will eventually be reunified and will inevitably be reunified.”

Clearly, the CCP has no idea of how democracy works. In this election, Taiwan expressed its “common desire” to not get closer to the “motherland” by handing victory to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which won a record third term. As Derek J. Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, noted: “It isn’t Lai’s win alone that should worry Beijing. It’s the fact that the DPP has now won an unprecedented three presidential elections in a row, suggesting Taiwan is further away than ever from thinking it belongs to China.”

Of course, such free will is anathema to the CCP and Chairman Xi Jinping, who expressly promised that Taiwan will be “reunified”. Even the words the CCP uses are impregnated with error – how can Taiwan be “reunified” when it has never been part of the communist regime?

Beijing promised: “Our position on resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving national reunification is consistent, and our will is rock-solid. We will…resolutely oppose Taiwan independence separatist activities and interference from external forces, and work with relevant political parties, groups and people from all walks of life in Taiwan to promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, deepen cross-strait integrated development, and jointly promote China culture, promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and promote the great cause of the reunification of the motherland.”

It is interesting to note that China “working with” Taiwanese people includes massive campaigns to deceive them. On January 11, Taipei announced more than 200 people had been arrested for supporting Chinese interference in elections, and 46 for obstructing the election. The government investigated 3,287 cases of electoral interference, most relating to election gambling, but 117 cases involving 287 individuals related to the Anti-Infiltration Act where foreign forces attempted to influence the election. Independent legislative candidate Ma Chih-wei was expelled from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on January 6 after being accused of receiving campaign money from China. As another example, the Kaohsiung Ciaotou Prosecutors’ Office suspected that the China Pan-Blue Association recruited 130 people, former and current borough chiefs among them, to travel to China using funds from Beijing.

Cyber-threat intelligence firm Mandiant described a “substantial volume of espionage operations” by China against Taiwan’s government, technology and critical infrastructure. Cloudfare, a website security firm, claimed a 3,370 per cent spike in cyberattacks designed to crash Taiwanese networks in the final quarter of 2023.

China has also dispatched a flurry of more than 30 weather balloons over Taiwan as a form of coercion since December. As the election loomed, the CCP provocateur attempted to take advantage of people’s fear and create internal conflict within Taiwan’s democracy. The White House agreed when it said, “It is no secret that Beijing has views on the outcome of the election and is trying to shape and coerce in various different ways.”

Sina Weibo, China’s popular social media platform, carried statements by government and state media but the interest of ordinary Chinese seemed muted. On 15 January, two days after the Taiwan election, the topic ranked only 36th among the most popular searches.

Nonetheless, the CCP would be pleased with the unqualified support of some Chinese netizens. One noted, “Alas…what’s the use of just talking?” A different poster, advocating violence, said, “The longer it’s delayed, the more problems will arise and the more difficult it will be in the end. The early realization of the great cause of reunification of the motherland is the right way!” Perfectly reflecting CCP obstinacy, one simply said, “Taiwan belongs to China, and there’s no need to discuss this matter!”

In a longer post, one netizen offered this generous advice: “The best policy is to impoverish Taiwan, besiege it and make it trapped … I can’t bear it anymore… First, the so-called victory of democracy? A candidate who gets 40.2 per cent points can become the leader of a country. Can this represent the interests of the majority of voters? Isn’t this a rigidity of the Western democratically elected system? Injuries, mistakes and mistakes. Second, if you think that a government elected according to Western democratic methods can benefit the people, would you mind asking if your citizens are enjoying the huge dividends brought by this government? … Third, Taiwan is a part of China. The United Nations does not recognize it as a sovereign and independent country at all.”

Voter turnout in Taiwan was slightly less than 72 per cent, but this netizen was railing at the DPP being appointed to lead the country with 40.2 per cent of the vote. However, in China, the leader gets to rule without any votes from the public! Naturally, China feels threatened by democracy. The concept of people choosing the ruling party is alien to the CCP. Perhaps, if given the choice, Chinese people would never elect the CCP if it had valid rivals on voting cards!

What will this election result mean in the near term? Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States assessed, “The ruling party’s unprecedented third consecutive presidential victory will disappoint China, but it is unlikely to spur any near-term change in Beijing’s reunification strategy.”

Glaser observed that “…Taiwan’s future relationship with China was likely the paramount concern. In the face of increasing Chinese military and economic pressure, as well as disinformation and other forms of cognitive warfare that are aimed at sowing divisions in Taiwan and persuading the island’s people that their future will be brighter as part of China, the majority of the people want to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy as well as cross-strait stability.”

Glaser commented that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen had “pursued a firm, consistent and pragmatic approach toward China, insisting on Taiwan’s sovereignty while refusing to bow to pressure from Beijing. She has prioritized strengthening ties with democracies worldwide, first and foremost the United States, but also countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.” Lai has pledged to follow that same pathway.

Glaser thought it “unlikely that Chinese President Xi Jinping will restart official contacts with Taiwan’s government, which have been suspended for the past eight years.” Beijing has labeled Lai and Vice President-elect Bi-khim Hsiao a separatist duo who will “only push Taiwan into the abyss”.

Beijing will be disappointed by the election result, but not surprised. The fact is that the Taiwanese people are not keen to become another Tibet or Hong Kong, and the more China coerces, the more people see the ugliness of the CCP’s nature.

Glaser further noted: “Xi’s desire to preserve the fragile stability in US-China relations that was achieved at the Woodside summit with President Joe Biden in November will probably be one factor that will deter him from taking exceedingly harsh measures against Taiwan, at least for the remainder of this year. Nevertheless, Chinese pressure on Taiwan can be expected to continue and may increase, although the use of military force to punish Taiwan or compel unification is unlikely, at least in the next few years. Xi will be preoccupied with economic troubles and corruption in the military, and he likely understands that using force against Taiwan will set back his priority of putting China on an irreversible path to achieving national rejuvenation by mid-century.”

Several Western media reports have emphasized the expectation of a tough Chinese reaction, and want to portray the result as a prelude to crisis. However, remember that 60 per cent of Taiwanese did not vote for the DPP in this election, plus it lost its majority and the legislature is now hung. This means Lai’s administration will have greater difficulty passing laws than Tsai did. In effect, the election maintains the status quo, as Taiwan has not swung one way or the other.

Hua Chunying, China’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs, tweeted: “The Taiwan question is China’s internal affair. Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change. The one-China principle is the solid anchor for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” She added, “We believe that the international community will continue to adhere to the one-China principle, and support the Chinese people’s just cause of opposing “Taiwan independence.”

Unfortunately for Hua, she fails to realize that most countries do not agree verbatim with China’s “one-China principle”. Beijing increasingly couches other nations’ positions in terms of its own one-eyed principle in an attempt to foster an impression of broad agreement. However, nobody is advocating Taiwan independence – although, to all intents and purposes, Taiwan is independent since it has its own government, laws and military. US policy “does not support Taiwan independence,” but, of course, that is different from China’s demand that others should “oppose” Taiwan independence.

Unfortunately, Chinese officials keep harping on about the threat of Taiwanese separatism, when all Taiwan wants to do is maintain the status quo, as this latest election demonstrated. Xie Feng, China’s Ambassador to the USA, said, “Separatism for ‘Taiwan independence’ seriously threatens the wellbeing of Taiwan compatriots, harms the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation, and jeopardizes peace and stability in the strait. It is a dead end that leads nowhere.”

Anne Applebaum, an American-Polish journalist and historian, noted: “Free and fair elections in Taiwan…prove there is nothing ‘cultural’ or ‘traditional’ about Chinese autocracy, no reason why the Chinese Communist Party must rule indefinitely on the mainland. Which is, of course, why the Chinese communists don’t like it.”

China published a white paper entitled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era” on 10 August 2022. Tougher in tone, it was the first white paper on Taiwan since 2000, and it emphasized complete unification as a historic mission. It said that “use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances”.

The white paper assured: “Provided that China’s sovereignty, security and development interests are guaranteed, after unification Taiwan will enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region.” Of course, that is also what Beijing said about Hong Kong. Worryingly, absent from the new white paper were previous references to Taiwan having its own “administrative and legislative powers”, “independent judiciary and the right of adjudication on the island”, running “its own party, political, military, economic and financial affairs” and “representatives of the government of the special administrative region and those from different circles of Taiwan may be appointed to senior posts in the central government and participate in the running of national affairs”.

Tellingly, Xi withdrew the statement that Taiwan “may keep its military forces and the mainland will not dispatch troops or administrative personnel to the island”. Instead, Taiwan would be ruled by sycophantic patriots loyal to the CCP. “All Taiwan compatriots who support the reunification of the country and rejuvenation of the nation will be the masters of the region, contributing to and benefitting from China’s development.”

That is precisely what most Taiwanese people do not want. It desires to run its own affairs free from Chinese coercion. Unfortunately, the CCP cannot understand that there are alternative and better ways of governance than autocratic one-party rule. (ANI)

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2024: Elections and Global Conflicts

If Trump’s election may bring the war in Europe to a close, an election in Asia, many fear, could see a global war, writes Mihir Bose

Image the scenario. It is November 2024 and Donald Trump is back in the White House. Yes, much of the world does not want such a result and he may not even win the popular vote in America, as he did not when he won the Presidency in 2016 but  still got to sit in the Oval Office because of the absurd Electoral College system that the Americans have for electing their President. But, however, he gets there he is there. If that happens Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine have reason to worry.

The reason is Trump will almost certainly cut off the military aid that Joe Biden has provided in such large measure to Ukraine. The Republicans in Congress have made it very clear they do not think the US should be providing such military support. And without that it is hard to see how Zelensky and his beleaguered country  can resist their big bad wolf of a neighbour. In any case given the well-advertised friendship between Trump and Putin, recall all that was said about how Putin helped Trump win in 2016,  it is not hard to see that a Trump America will lean towards Russia not Ukraine.

The result of that will definitely be that the Ukrainian President, despite all that he has said, will have to come to the table to negotiate a deal for his country, one which will, probably, see Ukraine shrink if not become a vassal state of Russia. It could become the 21st century version of what Finland was under Stalin and the Soviet Union. Nominally independent but not really ever able to challenge the Soviet Union. Then, recall, Finlandization was what the West feared would be the fate of many of the European countries if the Soviet Union was not restrained.

But if Trump’s election may bring the war in Europe to a close an election in Asia, many fear, could see a global war. That election is the one in Taiwan. With the leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party President Tsai, having been in power for two terms, not able to stand, it opened the door for vice-President William Lai. He said in one of his rallies, “The whole world is watching.” What they are watching is whether China will invade Taiwan, a fear that has grown as China has made increasingly belligerent noises that Taiwan has always belonged to China. Although neither Tsai or Lai talked about independence the fact is Taiwan is an island state, with its own armed forces and, much to Beijing’s chagrin, a thriving democracy which was demonstrated during the election. There can be no doubt how all this angers China with the Beijing defence ministry declaring that the People’s Liberation Army was “on high alert at all times” and will “smash” any move towards independence.

Volodymyr Zelensky with Rishi Sunak.(photo:Instagram)

It is curious to see how there are similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan. In the run-up to his invasion of Ukraine Putin wrote a long, rambling, essay, which many historians thought had no historical justification, arguing that Ukraine was never an independent state and belonged to Russia.

The Chinese have always claimed that Taiwan belongs to China and, interestingly, the US has always endorsed such an idea, for thirty years in an absurd fashion. When in 1949 America’s client, Chiang Kai-Shek, fled mainland China after Mao’s forces won the civil war, America supported Chiang’s claim that Taiwan was part of China. The US  blocked the People’s Republic from taking its seat in the UN Security Council with the result that Taiwan, claiming to represent mainland China, occupied the seat. This suited US very well as it meant its lackey Taiwan would always follow US orders and vote for it. In Taiwan such was the belief that it was part of China that when there were deaths in a coal mine accident in China, the Taiwanese minister was taken to task in the Taiwan parliament for not doing anything about it.

The US continued with its idiotic policy until Richard Nixon made his historic visit to China in 1972, ending a quarter of century of no-communication with China and met Mao. It was only in 1979, 30 years after the People’s Republic had been formed, that US had full diplomatic relationships with China. It is worth recalling that the when the US recognized the People’s Republic of China it de-recognised Taiwan and stated that the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” It was clear this meant Taiwan could not claim to be a sovereign country. True, US did not accept Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan but instead acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. The US also made it clear that it believed in a one China policy.

Of course all this was based on the understanding that China for all its belligerent noises would not invade Taiwan. But should China now follow its war-like noises with unleashing its forces this could see a more devastating war with far greater implications for the world than the Ukraine war.

2024 will of course see other elections which should not lead to war but could prove quite dramatic in its own way. They are the ones in Britain and its former colony India.

In Britain the question is whether the Conservatives led by a British Hindu can win another election. Elections they say are decided by pocket book issues. People vote because of how much money they have. Rishi Sunak may well try and make people feel they are doing well with a Budget that cuts taxes and provides other sweeties but the feeling in the country seems to be they have had enough of the Tories.  Such a feeling is important. Sometimes voters do not care for how well off they are but various other issues. In America Joe Biden has been struggling against Trump despite the fact that during his Administration the economy has done well and people are better off.

Yet a Labour victory should not be taken for granted. It may have a 20 point lead but Keir Starmer just does not convince and the Tories are not for nothing known as the most successful democratic party in the history of the world. They know how to win elections. Labour in contrast often promise but do not deliver. We shall have to see whether this British election will be 1992 or 1997.

Another Hindu, Narendra Modi, should have no problems winning a third term. When Modi came to power I was told by one of his supporters that he would not bother so much about the Hindu “business” but the real business of making India prosperous. But he has bothered a great deal about the Hindu business. He can claim he has delivered on this front in particular the Ram Mandir now emerging in Ayodhya. A third term could see India move away from its secular heritage towards becoming a truly Hindu state. That would be a dramatic change and, in many ways, the Indian Hindu’s triumph would have far greater consequences than the triumph of the  British Hindu.

(Mihir Bose is the author of Narendra Modi-The Yogi of Populism.) @mihirbose

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Taiwan Detects 6 Chinese Jets, 4 Vessels Near Island

Why has China decided to extend its military exercises around Taiwan?.(photo:IN)

Beijing has by far sent 114 Chinese military aircraft and 65 naval ships around Taiwan….reports Asian Lite News

Taiwan detected six Chinese military aircraft and four naval vessels around the nation between 6 am on January 14) and 6 am on January 15, Taiwan News reported on Monday citing the country’s Ministry of National Defence (MND).

According to the MND, one BZK-005 reconnaissance drone from the six People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line and reached the southwest corner of the nation’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).

Taiwan responded by monitoring the PLA operations with planes, naval boats, and air defence missile systems.

Meanwhile, at 1:47 pm on Sunday, a single Chinese balloon was seen crossing the Taiwan Strait median line 294 kilometres (159 miles) southwest of Keelung, Taiwan News reported.

The balloon later disappeared at 4:38 pm on Sunday after travelling northeast.

Beijing has by far sent 114 Chinese military aircraft and 65 naval ships around Taiwan.

Moreover, China has been using grey zone tactics more frequently since September 2020, gradually expanding the number of military planes and navy vessels in the Taiwan area.

Notably, gray zone tactics are defined as “an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one’s security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force.”

Meanwhile, in its first official reaction to the Presidential elections in neighbouring Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its claim on the breakaway territory as part of its own, saying that any changes in the island nation would not change the status of Taiwan as ‘part of China,’ CNN reported on Saturday.

The report quoted the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying that no matter “whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China, will not change.”

“The one-China principle is the solid anchor for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. We believe that the international community will continue to adhere to the one-China principle and understand and support the Chinese people’s just cause of opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and striving to achieve national reunification,” the spokesperson added.

Earlier, CNN quoted a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office as insisting that the election result “does not represent the mainstream view on the island”.

Earlier, before the presidential elections in Taiwan, President Xi Jinping, in his year-end address, asserted that Taiwan will be reunified with China, Fox News reported.

As tensions between Beijing and Taipei remain high, Xi has repeatedly affirmed China’s stance that the island-nation is a part of mainland China and that it must be reunified, by force if necessary.

“All Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” Xi said in Sunday’s address.

“The motherland will surely be reunified,” he added. (ANI)

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Lai Ching-te wins Taiwan presidential polls

This marks the historic third-straight victory for the DPP after Tsai Ing-wena completed her two terms as Taiwan President since 2016….reports Asian Lite News

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te has won the much-anticipated Taiwanese presidential polls and is set to be the next President amid concerns of escalating tensions with China, Taiwan News reported.

This marks the historic third-straight victory for the DPP after Tsai Ing-wena completed her two terms as Taiwan President since 2016.

According to the Central Election Commission report, Lai received over 5 million votes and more than 40 per cent of the vote share after counting was done from over 90 per cent of polling stations as of 7:45 pm (local time).

Previously undecided voters split three ways among the candidates, giving Lai a seven-point lead over Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih, who received 33 per cent of the total votes. In third place, the Taiwan People’s Party candidate Ko Wen-je took 26 per cent of the national vote, performing marginally better than expected, according to Taiwan News.

Lai, who previously served as Tainan’s mayor has pledged to continue bolstering national defense, the economy, and cooperation with democratic allies. He also said he would maintain deterrence and uphold the cross-strait status quo, during an election speech.

Lai said he would form a new government staffed by individuals based on their ‘capabilities’ rather than ‘party affiliation’, adding that this way, “it could effectively respond to challenges, be open and inclusive, and unite Taiwanese to face both domestic and international challenges”.

He also vowed to continue initiatives focusing on value-based diplomacy, cross-strait stability, defense self-sufficiency, economic upgrading, energy transition, youth investment, housing justice, and educational equality.

This will shape Taiwan to be “a stable and indispensable force in the international community,” he said.

Lai’s victory will surely cause protest from Beijing, which would have preferred the China-friendly KMT and Hou Yu-ih in power. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Thursday labelled Lai as an “obstinate Taiwan independence worker” that would bring “cross-strait confrontation and conflict”, according to Taiwan News.

China has increased military activities around Taiwan in recent years, including near-daily incursions into the country’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and sending military ships near its maritime borders. With Lai as president, the Taiwanese have made clear they will not back down from Chinese intimidation.

Earlier in the day, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen urged people to cast their ballots as she cast her own on Saturday morning in New Taipei City, Channel News Asia reported.

The leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) cast her ballot at the Xiulang Elementary School voting place in New Taipei. Hsiao Bi-khim, the vice presidential candidate, and several party officials were present.

The turnout was described as positive, reaching 70 per cent in cities including Taipei, Tainan, and Taoyuan as mild temperatures and sunny weather dominated during voting between 8am-4pm (local time).

Minor incidents were reported from several polling stations, mostly involving voters ripping up their ballot papers, taking pictures with cellphones, or flashing signs thought to be referring to candidates, according to Taiwan News.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese also voted for all 113 seats at the Legislative Yuan. The legislature is divided into 73 single-seat constituencies, 34 at-large seats decided by votes for lists of candidates per political party with a 5 per cent threshold, and six seats for indigenous representatives.

Results for legislative seats were predicted to become apparent later than the outcome of the main presidential race.

An upsurge in rail and road traffic was evidently seen as Taiwanese returned home to cast their ballots for its presidential and legislative elections, reported Taiwan News.

The world is keenly watching Taiwan as its citizens prepare to vote for a new President and Parliament amidst escalating tensions with China.

Beijing’s increasing threats towards Taipei over the past eight years have raised concerns, and the world awaits not only the election results but also the response from Taiwan’s ‘authoritarian neighbour,’ as reported by CNN. (ANI)

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Polling Begins in Taiwan as World Watches

Polling begins in Taiwan, over 19 million voters to elect President, VP as world watches

As Taiwanese prepare to cast their votes to determine the fate of their country, the three presidential contenders for Taiwan in the 2024 general election cast their ballots early on Saturday, according to Taiwan News.The presidential candidates from the three major parties are: the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te and his running partner Hsiao Bi-khim; the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-Je and his running mate Wu Hsin-Ying; and the Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih and his running mate Jaw Shaw-kong.According to Taiwan-based SET news, Lai travelled to Anping Elementary School in Tainan’s Anping District, Tainan City, to cast his ballot.He said that he loved every chance to cast a ballot and that he saw Taiwan’s democracy as a labour of love.Whereas, at the Da’an district of Taipei’s Jinou Girls’ High School, Ko cast his ballot, Taiwan news reported citing Channel News Asia.Meanwhile, Hou visited Banqiao Elementary School in New Taipei City’s Banqiao District to vote.The election will not only determine Taiwan’s president, and vice president, but also 113 legislators, which will include 73 district lawmakers, six Indigenous lawmakers, and 34 legislators-at-large.The polls opened at 8 a.m. and will close at 4 p.m.In a strict appeal, voters are reminded by the Central Election Commission to arrive at their assigned polling place with their national ID card, voting notice, and personal seal (chop).It stated that encouraging or discouraging others to vote, as well as causing disturbances or interfering within 30 metres of the polling place, are forbidden, Taiwan News reported.It stated that offenders might be imprisoned for up to a year, placed under confinement, or fined up to New Taiwan dollars15,000 (USD482.46) even after being stopped by security officers.Moreover, mobile phones, and other cameras are not allowed in the polling stations, but devices with the power turned off are exempt from the restrictions.Notably, 70 per cent of the island’s 19.5 million voters are registered to vote, and they are spread throughout the five biggest cities: Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung, according to Al Jazeera.There are 17,795 polling stations, the majority of them in schools.The result, however is expected late on Saturday.The world is keenly watching Taiwan as its citizens prepare to vote for a new President and Parliament amidst escalating tensions with China.Beijing’s increasing threats towards Taipei over the past eight years have raised concerns, and the world awaits not only the election results but also the response from Taiwan’s ‘authoritarian neighbour,’ as reported by CNN.In terms of age groups in the presidential election, 40-49-year-olds make up the largest voting bloc with 3.88 million eligible voters, or 19.88 per cent of the electorate, followed by 50-59-year-olds with 3.53 million eligible voters, who account for 18.06 per cent of the electorate, Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) said in a statement.Around 2.84 million of age from 20-29 year-olds are eligible to vote in the presidential election this time, the CEC said.Taiwanese voters will be choosing a successor to Tsai Ing-wen, the nation’s first female president, who cannot seek re-election due to term limits after winning in 2016 and 2020. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Tsai, is viewed unfavourably by China, which considers Taiwan a sovereign nation. (ANI)

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Taiwan’s Presidential Hopefuls Spar Over Trade With China

Taiwan, an island with a democratically elected government, is seen by China as an integral part of it, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated that Taipei should be united with Beijing….reports Asian Lite News

Taiwan’s presidential candidates clashed over future trade agreements with China on Tuesday, as the two leaders presented contrasting opinions regarding the same.

According to Taiwan News, the Kuomintang’s (KMT) presidential candidate said he would prioritize negotiating further trade agreements with China if sworn into power.

Whereas, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) asserted that the move would do more harm than benefit Taiwan’s democracy, according to Taiwan News.

The remarks came during a televised policy address on Tuesday (December 26).

Hou Yu-ih of the KMT indicated he would negotiate further advancements to the Economic Cooperation Framework Pact (ECFA), a free trade pact inked with China in 2010, according to Taiwan News.

“There are many things that the ruling (DPP) is unwilling to do, so let Hou Yu-ih do it,” he told reporters.

Hou claimed that since taking office, the DPP has compromised the interests of Taiwanese farmers and fishermen by refusing to negotiate trade deals with China. He stated that he would initiate negotiations on the 12 Taiwanese petrochemical products that lost preferential treatment from China on December 21, according to Taiwan News.

Since Tsai Ing-wen gained office in 2016, cross-strait trade has surged by over 13 per cent, according to Hou, and despite the DPP’s previous criticism of ECFA, the party has “been dependent” on the trade deal.

Taiwan, an island with a democratically elected government, is seen by China as an integral part of it, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated that Taipei should be united with Beijing.

Meanwhile, in response, the DPP’s Lai stated that the KMT’s aspirations to expand trade deals under ECFA neglected the impact on Taiwan, and added that ECFA was being used to manipulate economic interests to influence the election outcome, Taiwan News reported.

Lai claimed that the KMT’s efforts to reopen discussions on the ECFA’s contentious services trade pact will result in a high number of Chinese students in Taiwan, “locking Taiwan’s economy to China’s.” (ANI)

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Taiwan VP Frontrunner Says No War With China

Why has China decided to extend its military exercises around Taiwan?.(photo:IN)

The upcoming January 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are pivotal for defining Taiwan’s relationship with Beijing…reports Asian Lite News

Taiwan’s ruling party asserts its commitment to preventing war with China while placing blame for heightened tensions squarely on China’s shoulders, according to Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former dtop diplomat to the United States and current vice presidential frontrunner.

The upcoming January 13 presidential and parliamentary elections are pivotal for defining Taiwan’s relationship with Beijing, occurring amidst increased Chinese military activities aimed at asserting sovereignty claims over the island.

China has labelled Vice President Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate, as a dangerous separatist, framing the election as a choice between war and peace—a sentiment echoed by Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).

During a pre-election policy address, Hsiao emphasized that global awareness attributes rising tensions to China’s authoritarian expansion, disrupting the international order and status quo. Despite accusations, she clarified that Taiwan, under Lai Ching-te and herself, advocates for maintaining the peaceful status quo in the Taiwan Strait, reinforcing defenses to avert war.

In contrast, the KMT’s vice presidential candidate, Jaw Shaw-kong, emphasized his party’s non-allegiance to China, asserting that the DPP exploits the China threat to secure electoral support.

Jaw criticized the DPP’s lack of understanding of mainland China and the Communist Party, advocating for renewed dialogue between Taiwan and China. President Tsai Ing-wen and her administration have consistently offered talks, but China has dismissed these proposals, denouncing Lai and Hsiao as dangerous separatists.

Cynthia Wu, the vice presidential candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party, focused on domestic issues during her address, such as the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund, with minimal mention of China. As the elections approach, the dynamics between Taiwan and China remain a critical factor in shaping the island’s future.

Chinese President Xi Jinping had earlier warned his US counterpart Joe Biden that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, NBC News reported. Xi warned Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco, according to three current and former US officials.

In a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials, Xi told Biden that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.

The Chinese president also referenced public predictions by US military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to two current and one former official briefed on the meeting.

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Chinese Balloons, Aircraft Breach Median Line: Taiwan

The US drew the median line in the body of water separating Taiwan from China in 1954….reports Asian Lite News

Taiwan detected two Chinese balloons across the sensitive median line separating Taiwan from China, the self-ruled island’s Defence Ministry said.

Six People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels were detected by the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) and from which one entered Taiwan space on Monday, Taiwan Defence Ministry said.

Taking to X, Taiwan Defence Ministry said, “Six PLA aircraft and 2 PLAN vessels around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. 1 of the detected aircraft (Y-8 ASW)had entered Taiwan’s SW ADIZ. #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and tasked appropriate forces to respond.”

The US drew the median line in the body of water separating Taiwan from China in 1954.

Earlier on Sunday, two Chinese balloons entered Taiwan after crossing a median line of the Taiwan Strait at 9:36 am and 16:35 pm, the Taiwan Defence Ministry said.

Taking to X, the Taiwan Defence Ministry shared, “Two PRC’s balloons were detected yesterday after crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait at the location 110 nautical miles NW of Keelung and altitude of approximately 27,000 feet. The balloons headed east and disappeared at 09:36 and 16:35 respectively.”

Earlier this year, the suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon, before being shot down by the US forces was hovering in the nation’s airspace for a few days.

The balloon passed above US nuclear missile facilities, notably the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana before it was shot down on February 4 after entering American territory on January 28.

However, China has denied the device being used for surveillance purposes. Earlier, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the balloon in the US is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological.

“The airship is from China. It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the unintended entry of a Chinese unmanned airship into US Airspace. (ANI)

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India, US, Taiwan collaborate on cybersecurity

During the meeting, Taiwan’s Representative to India, Baushuan Ger, highlighted GCTF’s importance as a platform to utilise Taiwan’s strengths and expertise to address issues of global concern…reports Asian Lite News

Amid the growing challenges in the field of cybersecurity, a joint workshop was convened under the Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF) on Monday, said the US embassy in India in an official press statement on Monday.

During the workshop, representatives from the United States, India, and Taiwan are meeting on December 11-12 to deepen operational expertise and share best practises on cybersecurity issues.

The event has been co-hosted by the U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti, Taiwan’s Representative to India Baushuan Ger, former National Cyber Security Coordinator of India Lt. Gen Rajesh Pant, and the United Service Institution of India, which represented the first in-person GCTF programme held in India under the Global Cooperation and Training Framework (GCTF).

Ambassador Eric Garcetti said, “The United States is committed to working closely with partners like India and Taiwan to enhance cybersecurity and protect our shared interests in the digital space. When we connect, protect, and detect with technology, instead of fearing what it can do to divide or oppress us, we can take full advantage of the nearly limitless potential that these advances will bring.”

During the meeting, Taiwan’s Representative to India, Baushuan Ger, highlighted GCTF’s importance as a platform to utilise Taiwan’s strengths and expertise to address issues of global concern.

Moreover, India’s former National Cyber Security Coordinator Lt. Gen. Rajesh Pant, said for India, with over 800 million internet users and 1.2 billion smart phones, cybersecurity is a major part of national security.

As per the US Embassy press statement, since its launch in 2015, the GCTF has held 70 international workshops with participation from over 120 countries to strengthen connections among experts on such topics as public health, supply chains, humanitarian assistance, digital health and other regional issues.

The United States, Taiwan, the Australian Office, Taipei, and the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association jointly administer the GCTF, which serves as a platform for Taiwan to share its expertise with partners around the world.

The United States looks forward to continued collaboration with India, Taiwan, and like-minded partners to tackle shared challenges.

The embassy said, “Taiwan has world-class experts in a wide variety of fields, including public health, law enforcement, disaster relief, energy cooperation, women’s empowerment, digital economy and cyber security, media literacy, and good governance.”

However, because many international institutions do not allow Taiwan to participate, Taiwan’s experts are not able to share their knowledge. The GCTF allows practitioners from around the world to learn what Taiwan has to offer and to strengthen connections between experts in different countries as they tackle 21st-century problems that do not respect borders, embassy said. (ANI)

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