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Tories will commit to pensions triple lock, says Hunt

Hunt confirmed the current triple lock system to decide how much the payments rise each year would “absolutely” remain if the Conservatives win the general election, which must be held by 28 January 2025, for the whole of the next parliament…reports Asian Lite News

Jeremy Hunt has said the Conservatives will keep the triple lock system to decide rises in the state pension if they win the election. The chancellor confirmed the policy pledge, which means the increase in the state pension is the highest of average earnings growth, inflation or 2.5%.

He told Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg he was confident the “expensive” promise would be paid by growing the economy. Labour said it was “committed to retaining” the triple lock.

However the party is yet to confirm if the pledge will feature in its election manifesto. “We will set out those plans for our manifesto in detail,” Labour party chair Anneliese Dodds said. The state pension is to rise by 8.5% in April.

Hunt confirmed the current triple lock system to decide how much the payments rise each year would “absolutely” remain if the Conservatives win the general election, which must be held by 28 January 2025, for the whole of the next parliament.

“When we came to office in 2010, pensioners were more likely to be in poverty than other income groups, now because of the triple lock that we introduced they are less likely to be in poverty,” he told the BBC.

“I think that is a very important social change because unlike adults of working age, pensioners can’t work, they have retired and so we need to respect that.”

Hunt said he realised continuing the policy would be an “expensive commitment”, but added: “You can only make that commitment if you’re confident that you’re going to deliver the economic growth that is going to pay for it.”

In response to Mr Hunt’s confirmation, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the pledge was a “shameless election trick by the Conservatives” and claimed Mr Hunt was “yet again taking pensioners for granted”.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer declined to say if the triple lock would be in his party’s manifesto when asked by The Sun newspaper last week.

“We will have to see what the state of the economy is as we go into the election. We will publish all of our plans as we go in and answer that question, but I believe in the triple lock.”

The state pension is a payment made every four weeks by the government to people who have reached the qualifying age and have paid enough National Insurance contributions. More than 12 million people in the UK receive it.

Currently, the pension is worth £203.85 a week for the full, new flat-rate (for those who reached state pension age after April 2016), and £156.20 a week for the full, old basic state pension (for those who reached state pension age before April 2016).

In April, the two payments will rise to £221.20 and £169.50 per week respectively, taking the annual totals to £11,502 and £8,814.

Next month’s increase is set to be the second significant rise in the state pension in two years, after a 10.1% increase in April 2023.

The triple lock is designed to ensure pensioners, especially if they rely solely on the state pension, are able to afford rising prices, or keep pace with the increases in the working population’s wages.

It was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010, but there has been debate over whether it can continue in the long-term future due to its costs. The state pension cost £110.5bn in 2022-2023, just under half the total amount the government spends on benefits, and the government’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, estimated the level would grow to £124bn in 2023-2024.

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Hester’s Racial Barb

The new revelations accuse Tory donor of making comments about “the Indians” and saying he made “jokes about racism” during meetings with staff…reports Asian Lite News

Fresh comments allegedly made by Tory donor Frank Hester have emerged suggesting he joked about “the Indians” standing on the roof of a train in a staff meeting.

After Downing Street was forced to condemn businessman Hester for remarks he is said to have made about MP Diane Abbott, The Guardian published more allegations levelled against the businessman.

The new revelations accuse Hester of making comments about “the Indians” and saying he made “jokes about racism” during meetings with staff in Leeds.

He is said to have made the remarks during a meeting at the technology firm The Phoenix Partnership (TPP). Mr Hester runs the company, which has won several government contracts.

Speaking to staff on a balcony, overlooking a railway line, he asked if there was “no room for the Indians, then?” and added: “Climb on the roof, like on the roof of the train there maybe?”

The Guardian reported he then allegedly said he made “a lot of jokes about racism” and said he was looking forward to an upcoming trip to Malaysia “so that I can make new jokes – I don’t know any jokes about Malaysian people but I’m sure we’ll find them”.

The meeting was to address allegations of racism made by former employees in 2019, the newspaper reported.

He is accused of saying: “I do think that in a loving company, we should be able to make jokes about each other in a loving way, and tease each other, and enjoy each other’s company. And I think we all know the difference between a racial slur and perhaps ‘Asian corner’, which is still going on here today.”

The latest allegations were revealed after Downing Street was forced to condemn Hester’s comments about Abbott as “racist and wrong”.

Hester is alleged to have said the longest-serving black MP made him “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”.

Rishi Sunak had come under pressure over the remarks after he refused to say they were racist.

In a new statement issued on Tuesday evening, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “The comments allegedly made by Frank Hester were racist and wrong. He has now rightly apologised for the offence caused and where remorse is shown it should be accepted.

“The Prime Minister is clear there is no place for racism in public life and as the first British-Asian Prime Minister leading one of the most ethnically diverse Cabinets in our history, the UK is living proof of that fact.”

Hester, who has donated £10 million to the Tories in the past year, has admitted making “rude” comments about Abbott, but claimed they had “nothing to do with her gender nor colour of skin”.

Responding to the latest accusations, Labour Party Chair Anneliese Dodds said: “After finally conceding that his comments are racist, what further proof does Rishi Sunak need that the Conservatives accepting Frank Hester’s cash is completely wrong? After ministers lined up to dodge the reality of the situation, it’s time to face up to the facts: the Conservatives must apologise unequivocally to Diane Abbott, pay back these donations and root out the extreme views and prejudice which appears to be tolerated within the party.”

At the 2019 meeting for “foreign” workers, Hester gave his own definition of racism, saying: “For me, racism is just a hatred and a fear of the other. For me, it is just exactly the same as homophobia – it’s not limited to the colour of your skin, it is not limited to religion, it can just be the country next door, it can just be the county next door. It can be northerners and southerners, which we have here.”

In the same meeting, Hester said: “I make a lot of jokes about racism, about our different creeds and cultures. But I just want to assure you that it is just the most abhorrent thing.”

Carter-Ruck, representing Hester and TPP, has previously said Hester’s comments were distorted and taken out of context, and were not a true or accurate characterisation of the company or Hester.

Lord Marland, a businessman and Tory donor who says he knows Hester, told LBC that Hester was “an international businessman, he travels widely overseas – he does a lot of a business in Jamaica, he does business in Malaysia, in Bangladesh, in places like that – so he’s not a racist. He made some unfortunate remarks which do sound racist, and quite rightly, he’s apologised for them.”

A statement from TPP said Hester “accepts that he was rude about Diane Abbott in a private meeting several years ago but his criticism had nothing to do with her gender nor colour of skin”. The statement said Hester had tried to apologise directly for the “hurt he has caused” and that he was “deeply sorry for his remarks”. The statement also said he abhorred racism.

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No general election in May, says Hands

But expectations have been raised of a May election ahead of mooted tax cuts in Wednesday’s budget and the potential deportation flights to Rwanda could take off within weeks…reports Asian Lite News

A Tory Minister has appeared to rule out a May general election, suggesting voters will go to the polls this autumn. With Rishi Sunak’s party lagging Labour in the polls by 20 points, Greg Hands said the contest will be “later this year”.

The trade minister was asked about mounting speculation the PM could call a snap election in May, to coincide with local elections around the country, but ruled the prospect out.

At the same time, Labour’s shadow paymaster general was making a bet with Sky News presenter Kay Burley that the contest would be in May.

Jonathan Ashworth said: “After 14 years of the Tories… I think the British people will say it’s time for a change and will want to get rid of the Tories.

“And by the way, this election is coming in May. I think it is definitely coming in May… the Conservatives are planning for that.”

Ashworth accepted a £10 bet for a children of alcoholics charity and called on Mr Sunak to “name that date”.  Sunak has previously said his “working assumption” is that he will call the election in the second half of this year, but has refused to set out a date.

But expectations have been raised of a May election ahead of mooted tax cuts in Wednesday’s budget and the potential deportation flights to Rwanda could take off within weeks.

There are also growing fears Sunak faces a tough set of results at the May local elections, which could destabilise his leadership. And some suggest the government could opt for a May election to limit the damage to the Conservatives, with no evidence the party can expect a turnaround in the polls.

Former Tory leader Lord Hague urged the PM to “keep his options open” on the timing of the election, but added that it is “much more likely” to come late this year. Sunak’s deadline to dissolve parliament in time for a 7 May election is 26 March. It comes after a shock survey on Monday revealed the party is on course for one of its worst election defeats in history.

It showed for the Conservative Party has plunged to the lowest level since 1978 with just a fifth of British voters now backing Sunak’s party.

The Tories were 27 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which would spell electoral oblivion for Sunak’s party if replicated at a general election.

The Ipsos poll, published on Monday, shows Mr Sunak could hold on to as few as 25 seats – 351 fewer than Boris Johnson won in 2019 – in what would be a historic defeat.

It also predicts Sir Keir could secure as many as 537 seats – 340 more than Jeremy Corbyn managed at the last election and equating to a landslide which would eclipse Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 win.

The survey showed support for the Tories at just 20 per cent, the lowest since 1978 when Ipsos started tracking the poll. Ipsos is a multinational market research firm and the poll is the latest in its monthly independent Political Monitor.

In the latest survey, Labour’s support has dropped to 47 per cent from the 49 per cent it had in January. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were backed by 9 per cent of the electorate, while support for both the Green Party and Reform UK was at 8 per cent – double what it was in January.

Ipsos’s previous lowest score for the Conservatives was 22 per cent, recorded by John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, only a few years before Sir Tony’s election win.

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Anderson suspended from Tory party over ‘Islamists’ comments

The London mayor added he was “unclear why Rishi Sunak and members of his Cabinet” were not calling out the remarks or condemning the comments…reports Asian Lite News

Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson has been suspended from the party after “refusing to apologise” for comments aimed at Sadiq Khan.

The Conservative Ashfield MP told GB News on Friday “Islamists” had “got control” of the mayor of London. Responding on Saturday, Khan described the remarks as “pouring fuel on the fire of anti-Muslim hatred”. Anderson said his comments had put the chief whip and PM in a “difficult position”.

Losing the Conservative whip essentially expels Anderson from his party in Parliament. Just over an hour after Khan’s criticism, a spokesperson for the Tory party’s chief whip Simon Hart said: “Following his refusal to apologise for comments made yesterday, the chief whip has suspended the Conservative whip from Lee Anderson MP.”

Speaking on GB News Anderson said: “I don’t actually believe that the Islamists have got control of our country, but what I do believe is they’ve got control of Khan and they’ve got control of London… He’s actually given our capital city away to his mates.”

Pressure then mounted on Rishi Sunak to take action over the comments from the Ashfield MP after Khan criticised a “deafening silence” from the prime minister and his Cabinet. Until January Anderson served as one of the deputy chairmen of the Conservative Party, but he resigned so he could rebel against the government over the Rwanda vote.

Posting his reaction to losing the whip on social media Anderson said: “Following a call with the chief whip, I understand the difficult position that I have put both he and the prime minister in with regard to my comments. “I fully accept that they had no option but to suspend the whip in these circumstances. However, I will continue to support the government’s efforts to call out extremism in all its forms – be that anti-Semitism or Islamophobia.”

Earlier on Saturday afternoon, Khan responded to the comments Anderson first made on GB News which he described as “Islamophobic, anti-Muslim and racist”. “These comments pour fuel on the fire of anti-Muslim hatred,” Khan said.

The London mayor added he was “unclear why Rishi Sunak and members of his Cabinet” were not calling out the remarks or condemning the comments. Anderson’s initial remarks have prompted criticism from some Tories, including former chancellor Sir Sajid Javid who said the remarks were “ridiculous”.

The Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) said it welcomed Anderson’s suspension but claimed it has “only taken place after widespread disgust”. A MCB spokesman said: “The Conservative Party has an Islamophobia problem. They need to own up to it.”

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Tory backlash after Cameron calls for Palestinian state

The Palestinian envoy described Cameron’s words as a “significant” moment –refers it as “Cameron Declaration” …reports Asian Lite News

Foreign secretary David Cameron has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after he suggested Britain could bring forward formal UK recognition of a Palestinian state.

The former PM has said such a move could help to make a two-state solution – currently stalled, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu firmly opposed – an “irreversible” process.

Cameron – speaking ahead of his latest visit to the Middle East – spelled out how the UK and its allies could add to pressure on Israel by considering recognising a Palestinian state at the United Nations.

Palestinian ambassador to the UK Husam Zomlot pounced on his words as “significant” – but senior Conservatives warned Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary not to push too far or too fast.

Ex-Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers said bringing forward the recognition of a Palestinian state would “reward Hamas’ atrocities” after the 7 October terror attack.

Fellow senior Tory Sir Michael Ellis said the move could risk equipping “dangerous actors” with the “trimmings and capabilities of a state”.

And Stephen Crabb, another ex-cabinet minister, said the gesture may be “noble”, but questioned what “talk about early recognition” of Palestinian statehood would achieve.

Cameron told a London reception there was a need to give the Palestinian people “a political horizon” to end the Israeli-Hamas war as he addressed a reception for Arab ambassadors in parliament.

The foreign secretary suggested that Britain and others could formally recognise a Palestinian state during peace negotiations – rather than wait for a final peace deal with Israel.

“We should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like – what it would comprise, how it would work,” he said on Monday night.

“As that happens, we, with allies, will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. This could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible,” Cameron said.

The foreign secretary last week pushed Netanyahu to re-consider talks aimed at a two-state solution to bring about peace for both Israeli and Palestinian people.

Netanyahu has rebuffed the push from western allies, including the US – saying the plan would “endanger the state of Israel”. The Israeli PM also criticised what he described as an “attempt to coerce us”.

On Tuesday Netanyahu ruled out an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or the release of thousands of militants – both key Hamas demands in ongoing ceasefire talks. The Israeli leader once again vowed that the war will not end without “absolute victory” over Hamas, in remarks to reporters.

Both No 10 and junior Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell responded to Cameron’s remarks on Tuesday by insisting that there has been “no change” in UK policy. Sunak’s spokesman said recognition of a Palestinian state will take place “at a time it best serves the cause of peace”.

However, Labour welcomed Cameron’s suggestion. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy told MPs: “As Keir Starmer has said, statehood is not the gift of a neighbour – it is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people.”

Lammy added: “I welcome the foreign secretary adopting this position and rejecting the notion that recognition can only follow the conclusion of negotiations.”

But as Tory MPs shared their concerns in the Commons on Tuesday, Villiers said it was “really disturbing” that Cameron appeared to have “changed the UK government’s approach on recognition of a Palestinian state”.

“Will the minister agree with me that bringing forward and accelerating unilateral recognition of Palestinian state would be to reward Hamas’ atrocities?” she asked.

Mitchell replied: “There is no question of rewarding Hamas for the appalling acts they perpetrated in a pogrom on October 7. But the point the foreign secretary has been making is that we must give the people of the West Bank and Gaza a credible route to a Palestine state and a new future, but we must do so when the time is right.”

Michael also warned that “unilateral recognition of Palestinian state now” risked “equipping those dangerous actors … with the trimmings and capabilities of a state”.

The Palestinian ambassador to the UK described Cameron’s words as a “significant” moment – and even referred to “the Cameron Declaration” in a social media statement.

Zomlot said: “It is the first time a UK foreign secretary considers recognising the state of Palestine, bilaterally and in the UN, as a contribution to a peaceful solution rather than an outcome.”

He said: “If implemented, the Cameron Declaration would remove Israel’s veto power over Palestinian statehood, would boost efforts toward a two-state outcome.”

Cameron, whose latest trip starts in Oman, is expected to say Britain will do “everything it can” to prevent the conflict from “spilling over borders” during a visit to the Middle East.

In Oman, the foreign secretary is expected to meet his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, to discuss de-escalating rising tensions across the region.

An attack by Iran-backed militia in Jordan over the weekend that killed three US troops and left dozens injured has stoked fresh fears of a Western confrontation with Tehran.

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Tories launch attack on Starmer

“Are you a terrorist in need of legal advice? Better call Keir,” read a mocked-up poster published by the Conservatives this week on X…reports Asian Lite News

Conservatives are stepping up personal attacks on opposition Labour leader and former prominent lawyer Keir Starmer, who is tipped to become prime minister after the next general election. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Tories and sympathetic right-leaning newspapers are targeting Starmer’s record as a leading human rights lawyer and public prosecutor in a bid to haul back support from his centre-left party. Political scientists view the broadsides as an increasingly desperate tactic by a government that is running out of ideas and probably in its death throes, after 14 years in power.

“Are you a terrorist in need of legal advice? Better call Keir,” read a mocked-up poster published by the Conservatives this week on X, the social media site formerly called Twitter. “When @RishiSunak sees a group chanting jihad on our streets, he bans them. Keir Starmer invoices them,” the party added in an adjacent comment. The dig related to advice that Starmer gave the Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir in 2008, when the organisation challenged a ban on its activities in Germany. The government in London this week declared Hizb ut-Tahrir a “terrorist” organisation and banned it from operating in the UK.

Sunak said during the weekly prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday that the now-proscribed group had once been “a client” of Starmer’s. “If Keir Starmer wasn’t leader of the opposition, he’d be representing a lot of these people still today,” Sunak’s press secretary told reporters afterwards. A Labour spokesman stressed that Starmer did not formally represent Hizb ut-Tahrir, and shortly afterwards became the chief state prosecutor in England and Wales. “The nature of being a lawyer is that you represent and give advice to a whole range of clients, including people that you don’t agree with,” he added. The brickbats fit a pattern.

Britain’s Tory-supporting press recently reported that Starmer had represented an Irish Republican Army member and hate preacher Abu Qatada. Labour and legal experts reiterate that Starmer would have been obliged to do so under the “cab rank rule”, which ensures that everyone receives legal representation whoever they are. The personal slights also tie into Britain’s so-called culture wars, with 43-year-old Sunak — a privately educated former investment banker — fond of accusing Starmer, 61, of being a “lefty lawyer”. Starmer defended a number of salient causes as a human rights barrister, including defending trades unions and anti-McDonald’s activists.

He also worked to ensure police in Northern Ireland complied with human rights legislation. In 2008, Starmer was appointed director of public prosecutions for England and Wales at the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), a role he held until 2013. He oversaw the prosecution of lawmakers for abusing their expenses, journalists for phone hacking and young rioters involved in 2011 unrest across England, earning a knighthood, giving him the title “Sir Keir”, in 2015. The privately wealthy Sunak has accused Starmer, the son of a toolmaker and a nurse who ran a donkey sanctuary, of being “soft on crime, soft on criminals”, and has dubbed him “Sir Softie”. Starmer told an ITV documentary this week that “of course” there will have been mistakes committed during his tenure leading the CPS. “But there’ll be no smoking gun, no skeletons in the closet,” he insisted.

A YouGov poll released this week found Labour 27 points ahead of the Conservatives, before the election, the date of which Sunak is yet to announce. The survey put the ruling party on only 20-percent support, suggesting it is heading for a landslide defeat. The Tories have presided over a crippling cost-of-living crisis in recent months, record waiting lists for hospital treatment and served up five prime ministers since the 2016 Brexit vote. “The cupboard is bare, isn’t it?” Robert Ford, a political scientist at Manchester University, said of the motivation for the personal attacks. “They haven’t got much to run on.” Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, does not think the barbs will land with voters. “The personal stuff is unlikely to trump the bread and butter issues that are killing this government, most obviously the state of the economy and the National Health Service,” he said.

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Tory dy chairmen resign over vote

In April 2022, the UK reached a deal with Rwanda, under which illegal immigrants and asylum seekers would be sent to the east African country to have their claims processed there…reports Asian Lite News

Two deputy chairmen of the British ruling Conservative Party have resigned as the lawmakers in the UK voted on amendments to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s emergency legislation on immigration.

Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith announced their resignations on Tuesday evening after voting in favour of an amendment to the legislation, Xinhua news agency reported.

They wrote in a joint letter to the Prime Minister regarding the amendments that “whilst our main wish is to strengthen the legislation, this means that in order to vote for amendments we will therefore need to offer you our resignations”.

In April 2022, the UK reached a deal with Rwanda, under which illegal immigrants and asylum seekers would be sent to the east African country to have their claims processed there. If successful, they would be granted permanent residency in Rwanda rather than being allowed to return to the UK.

However, the scheme has met with resistance. The first flight scheduled to take seven migrants to Rwanda in June 2022 was cancelled after an intervention by the European Court of Human Rights. Two months ago, the UK’s Supreme Court ruled that the government’s scheme was unlawful.

The British government later introduced emergency legislation that would override domestic and international human rights law, and Members of Parliament (MPs) voted in favour of the new bill last month.

On Tuesday, British lawmakers rejected amendments to the bill proposed by the Labour Party by 336 votes to 262. A main vote on the bill is expected on Wednesday.

Jane Stevenson, another Conservative MP, also offered her resignation as a Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) over the vote on Tuesday evening.

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‘Tories heading for electoral wipeout’

YouGov survey predicts Conservatives will lose almost every seat in the north of England, more than 70% of their seats in Yorkshire and more than half their seats in Midlands…reports Asian Lite News

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.

The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

Every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2019 will be lost, the poll indicates, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will be one of 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats.

The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.

The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour.

It would all but guarantee Sir Keir’s party at least a decade in government, as no party with such a sizeable majority has ever lost the subsequent election.

There is also bad news for the Scottish National Party, which is predicted to lose almost half of its seats to Labour, retaining only 25.

The poll – obtained using the same method that has accurately predicted the results of several recent elections – will add to pressure on Rishi Sunak to pivot to a far more conservative agenda as he faces a crucial vote on his Rwanda policy this week.

It will also be studied closely by Tory MPs who believe a change of leader before this year’s election is the only way to avoid disaster.

James Johnson, a former Number 10 pollster, said the figures suggested any possible path to victory for the Conservatives had “all but vanished”. He said the data showed the Tories were haemorrhaging the votes of Leave supporters who backed them in 2019 and would be punished by those voters “if they do not get tough on migration – fast”.

The poll was commissioned by a group of Conservative donors called the Conservative Britain Alliance and carried out by YouGov, working with Lord Frost.

It surveyed 14,000 respondents over the course of New Year – around seven times as many people as a typical poll.

Such a big sample size enabled YouGov to break down results by the constituencies in which the election will be fought using its Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP) method, which successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 UK elections and more recently votes in Australia and Spain.

Unlike recent polls, which have given Labour an average lead of around 18 points across the electorate as a whole, the MRP poll predicts which seats will go to which party, giving a forecast of the actual election result.

It also factors in the large number of undecided voters and which way they are most likely to vote, known as electoral tightening.

The results are therefore the most credible forecast of what would actually happen if there was an election tomorrow or early this year, based on current public opinion.

The 169 seats the Conservatives are predicted to win is four more than the 165 they won in 1997. This time, however, the scale of losses would be bigger because they have more seats than in 1997.

The poll suggests the Tories are on course to hold 196 fewer seats than Boris Johnson won in 2019. Sir John Major lost 178 seats in 1997, when Sir Tony Blair won 418, giving him a majority of 179 at the start of 13 years of Labour government. 

A majority of 120 for Sir Keir would be larger than any in the last two decades and comparable to those secured by Margaret Thatcher in 1983 and 1987. The Liberal Democrats are set to win 48 seats, recovering their pre-2015 size.

The Conservatives will lose seats across the country, the poll forecasts. Labour will rebuild its Red Wall by winning back the seats taken by the Tories in the North and Midlands in 2017 and 2019.

Sunak’s party will lose almost every seat in the north of England, more than 70 per cent of their seats in Yorkshire and more than half their seats in the Midlands.

The Conservatives are also predicted to suffer heavy losses, mainly to the Liberal Democrats, in Blue Wall seats in the South of England they have held for decades.

Horsham, which the Conservatives won by 21,000 votes in 2019, and which has only ever been represented by a Tory since 1880, is expected to go to the Liberal Democrats.

The results are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s. In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent.

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Labour Wins Tory Safe Seats

Labour’s Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards cruised to victory in the seats of Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, overturning Tory majorities of nearly 25,000 and 20,000, respectively…reports Asian Lite News

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservative Party has lost two safe parliamentary seats in a bellwether vote ahead of the next general election.

The centre-left Labour Party easily won the two central England seats up for grabs in by-elections held on Thursday, in an ominous sign for the Conservatives’ prospects in national elections expected next year.

Labour’s Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards cruised to victory in the seats of Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, overturning Tory majorities of nearly 25,000 and 20,000, respectively.

The governing Tories had held Mid Bedfordshire since 1931, and Tamworth since 1996.

George Osborne, a former Conservative chancellor, earlier warned that the loss of Mid-Bedfordshire would mean “Armageddon” for the centre-right party.

Labour leader Keir Starmer hailed the wins as proof of the public’s desire for new leadership.

“These are phenomenal results. Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it,” Starmer said.

Labour has enjoyed a double-digit polling lead over the Conservatives for more than a year as voters fume over high inflation, a weak economy and long waiting times to use the state-run health service.

Facing flagging support in the polls, Sunak has announced a number of major policy shifts, including scrapping part of a costly high-speed rail link and watering down measures aimed at helping the UK achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The policy announcements have done little to improve the Tories’ standing in the polls, although Sunak’s personal approval has improved slightly.

During their more than 13 years in power, the Conservatives have led the UK through some of its most significant events in decades, including Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sunak, the fifth Tory leader since 2010, was not in the UK for the by-election results after travelling to Israel to express support for the country in its war with the armed Palestinian group Hamas.

Speaking specifically about the Tamworth result to the BBC, British election wizard John Curtice said “no government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”

Speaking on both the results, Curtice told the BBC that we are seeing the “top 10 of worst Conservative performances against the Labour Party.”

With a general election predicted at some point late next year, Curtice warned against taking these results as a direct temperature check. “This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer … Unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time,” he said.

Former Theresa May pollster James Johnson, of JL Partners, said London Playbook it is “close to the worst case” for the Conservatives.

Following the results, Sir Keir said: “These are phenomenal results that show Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.

“Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.”

Shadow minister Peter Kyle, who ran Labour’s campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said the party had delivered a “political earthquake” for Sunak and the Conservatives.

And Tory peer Lord Cruddas, an ally of former PM Boris Johnson, said “clearly Rishi Sunak isn’t working as leader of our party”. The ex-party treasurer said, “Local council elections, by-elections defeats everywhere. Rishi’s record is dire and Tories are heading for electoral disaster under Sunak. Things need to change starting at the top.”

But despite the scale of the defeats, one minister denied his party had to change tack. Andrew Bowie told Sky News there was “always room for improvement” but the government was “on the right course”.

The shock by-election results saw Labour win Mid Bedfordshire for the first time after an unusually long contest sparked by the resignation of Nadine Dorries.

The former culture secretary quit in protest after not being awarded a peerage in ally Boris Johnson’s resignation honours, but delayed the formal process of resigning for 12 weeks.

Strathern was announced as Labour’s candidate just days later and has been campaigning in the seat ever since. He said his victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election had “made history” and sent a “resounding message”.

Giving his victory speech, the newest Labour MP said: “Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change. Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”

Speaking after her victory in Tamworth, Edwards called on Rishi Sunak to “do the decent thing and call a general election”. She said: “The people of Tamworth have voted for Labour’s positive vision and a fresh start. They’ve sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed Government, which has crashed the economy and destroyed our public services.”

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Sunak sparks Tory civil war over HS2 move

Former PMs Cameron and Johnson say the decision showed the country was heading in the wrong direction…reports Asian Lite News

Rishi Sunak unleashed a Tory civil war on Wednesday by announcing the scrapping of the northern leg of HS2 as the former prime minister David Cameron said the decision showed the country was heading in the wrong direction.

After days of frenzied speculation over the future of the flagship levelling-up project, Sunak confirmed he was axing the Birmingham to Manchester line and would use the £36bn of savings to fund a number of other transport schemes, described as “Network North”.

Cameron led a torrent of criticism of the announcement, which it emerged was made without consulting the cabinet, parliament, local councils or Network Rail, saying it passed up a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

“It will help to fuel the views of those who argue that we can no longer think or act for the long-term as a country; that we are heading in the wrong direction,” he warned.

Cameron said the announcement threw away “15 years of cross-party consensus, sustained over six administrations, and would make it much harder to build consensus for any future long-term projects”.

However, Sunak told Tory activists in Manchester that he was focused on the long term as he presented himself – the fifth Tory prime minister in 13 unbroken years of the party’s rule – as the change candidate at the next election.

“At the next election the choice that people face is bigger than party politics,” he said.

“Do we want a government committed to making long-term decisions, prepared to be radical in the face of challenges and to take on vested interests, or do we want to stand still and quietly accept more of the same? You either think this country needs to change, or you don’t. And if you do, you should stand with me and every person in this hall, you should stand with the Conservatives.”

He directly challenged critics of his HS2 plans including former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Theresa May, as well as the West Midlands mayor, Andy Street, who pulled back from the brink of quitting the Tory party.

“I say to those who backed the project in the first place, the facts have changed. The right thing to do when the facts change is to have the courage to change direction,” he said.

Cameron was joined by Johnson, who replied to his post on X, formerly known as Twitter, criticising the announcement simply with: “I agree.”

Sunak was accused of the “biggest and most damaging U-turn in the history of UK infrastructure” by the rail industry despite a promise to divert funds into transport schemes in the Midlands and north, including some already under way, as well as projects previously paused or cancelled by the government.

Sunak had insisted all week that no final decision had been made on scrapping the Manchester leg. However, he later posted a video online – outlining why he had made the decision – that had been recorded in No 10 at least three days before the conference.

Sunak’s speech was peppered with references to the future. However, Sunak glossed over the Tories’ 13 years in power and Truss’s disastrous 49-day premiership in particular. “I came into office in difficult circumstances, and I don’t want to waste time debating the past because what matters is the future,” he said.

Despite speculation that Sunak could offer tax cuts before the election, as Tory MPs have repeatedly urged him to do, he refused to do so in his speech. “I know you want tax cuts, I want them too – and we will deliver them,” he said. “But the best tax cut we can give people right now is to halve inflation and ease the cost of living.”

The speech otherwise stuck to largely familiar Conservative themes such as immigration, crime, the unions and the benefits system, in addition to a section on culture wars that included a strong attack on trans rights.

“We shouldn’t be bullied into thinking people can be any sex they want to be. A man is a man and a woman is a woman and that’s just common sense,” he said.

Sunak told the Tory right, who have been urging withdrawal from the European convention on human rights, that while he was “confident” his hardline Rwanda policy would not breach international law, he would do “whatever is necessary” to stop Channel crossings.

The European Political Community meets in Spain on Thursday, where Sunak will co-chair an event with Italy’s hardline leader, Giorgia Meloni, on illegal migration. The two prime ministers are expected to call for more coordinated action.

Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt gave Sunak’s warm-up speech, framing the battle against Labour as a return to the 1980s.

She paid tribute to Tory former cabinet minister Norman Tebbit and described Labour as “the sons and daughters of [Arthur] Scargill”, adding: “They want to return us to the 1980s. We are not for returning.”

She concluded by channelling US senator John McCain’s 2008 Republican presidential nomination acceptance speech to “stand up, stand up, stand up and fight”. McCain later lost the US election to Barack Obama.

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