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War, fear of war spur global military spending to new record

The increased spending exactly matched the global rate of inflation of 6.8 percent, so it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater military efficacy everywhere…reports Asian Lite News

The world spent $2.4 trillion on military forces last year, the highest amount ever recorded by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

SIPRI has been monitoring military expenditures since 1949 and found in its annual report released on Monday that in 2023 they rose to 2.3 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.2 percent the year before.

It meant that every man, woman and child on the planet was taxed an average of $306 for military spending last year – the highest rate since the Cold War.

The increased spending exactly matched the global rate of inflation of 6.8 percent, so it doesn’t necessarily translate into greater military efficacy everywhere.

But as SIPRI said, spending was not evenly spread out because “world military expenditure is highly concentrated among a very small group of states”.

The United States remained the biggest spender at $916bn, representing 37 percent of the world’s military outlays. China came second with an estimated $296bn.

Russia was third at $109bn although SIPRI considers this an underestimation “due to the increasing opaqueness of Russian financial authorities since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022”. India came fourth at $83.6bn.

The rate of increase in military spending was also uneven with European budgets ballooning due to the war in Ukraine.

The belligerents

Ukraine increased its defence spending by 51 percent to $64.8bn – not including $35bn in military donations from allies. That meant it was devoting 37 percent of its GDP and nearly 60 percent of all government spending to defence, SIPRI said.

Despite financial aid from Europe, the US and the International Monetary Fund, this was a remarkable feat given that Ukraine lost seven million taxpayers and, according to World Bank figures, a fifth of its economic output in 2022, the first year of the war.

The toll on Russian society was far lower.

Last year, Russia increased military spending by 24 percent to 6.9 percent of its GDP and 16 percent of all government spending. Even though this was the largest defence budget since the Soviet Union was dissolved three decades ago, Russia’s economy also grew by almost 22 percent, thanks to high energy export revenues, lending resilience to its economy.

Russia had already increased its military spending by 9 percent in 2022. The fact that it then budgeted a 21 percent increase in 2023 and actually increased spending by 24 percent suggests that it was continually surprised by the length of the war and the toll of Ukrainian resistance on its armed forces.

Its 2024 budget plans an even bigger increase – 70 percent on defence and security spending – to $157bn, the Reuters news agency reported

Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7 and Israel’s war in Gaza led to a massive 24 percent defence budget increase in Israel last year to $27.5bn, or 5.3 percent of its GDP.

Saudi Arabia also significantly increased spending.

The two countries contributed to a 9 percent defence budget increase in the Middle East last year, the biggest annual increase in a decade. The Middle East also bears the biggest military burden in the world as a percentage of GDP. At 4.2 percent, it is nearly double the world average.

A transformation in Europe

Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine led Europe’s NATO members to increase military budgets by 16 percent last year to $588bn. This meant they were spending an average of 2.8 percent of GDP on defence, SIPRI said, surpassing the 2 percent threshold NATO set in 2014, although that level of spending wasn’t shared by all members.

This has led to some spectacular increases on the continent.

Poland led the pack with a 75 percent increase last year, pouring 3.9 percent of its GDP into defence. This was partly to pay for a comprehensive $2bn defence modernisation programme of its armed forces under US guidance but also to massively overhaul and increase its arsenal.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Poland has ordered 500 HIMARS rocket launchers from Lockheed Martin, 250 Abrams tanks from General Dynamics as well as rocket launchers, tanks, howitzers and fighter jets from South Korea. In 2020, it signed a $4.6bn deal for F-35 multirole fighter jets from Lockheed Martin.

Finland, which shares NATO’s longest border with Russia, also massively upped defence spending by 54 percent, to 2.4 percent of its GDP. It, too, bought the F-35 as its next generation jet as well as air defence systems, tripling procurement spending in a year.

Other Northern European and Baltic Sea states have massively increased spending in the past year with the United Kingdom leading the region with a 7.9 percent increase last year.

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‘To have peace, Europe must prepare for war’

Michel urged EU countries to ensure Ukraine received what it needed on the battlefield — including by spending EU money on military equipment, and using windfall profits from Russia’s immobilized assets to purchase arms for Ukraine…reports Asian Lite News

Europe must strengthen its defense capabilities and shift to a “war economy” mode in response to the threat posed by Russia, European Council President Charles Michel said on Monday.

In an op-ed published in European newspapers and the Euractiv website, Michel — who will chair a meeting of EU leaders on Thursday to discuss support for Ukraine — said Europe needed to take responsibility for its own security and not rely heavily on the support of countries such as the US

“If we do not get the EU’s response right and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next. We must therefore be defense-ready and shift to a ‘war economy’ mode,” Michel said.

“If we want peace, we must prepare for war,” he said.

Michel said while Europe had made strides since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine — including by increasing military manufacturing capacity by 50 percent — far more was needed and, for decades, Europe had not invested enough in its security and defense.

Michel urged EU countries to ensure Ukraine received what it needed on the battlefield — including by spending EU money on military equipment, and using windfall profits from Russia’s immobilized assets to purchase arms for Ukraine.

He urged countries to facilitate investments in defense — including by considering changing the mandate of the EU lending arm, the European Investment Bank, to allow it to support Europe’s defense industry.

EU countries approved an agreement on Monday to increase the EU’s support for Ukraine’s armed forces by 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) — amid warnings that Kyiv’s forces need more resources to hold the line against a larger Russian army as a $60 billion US aid package for Ukraine is being held up by Congress.

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‘31,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Killed in Two-Year War’

The Ukrainian President said he would not give the number of wounded as that would help Russian military planning…reports Asian Lite News

Around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion began two years ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

The Ukrainian President said at a news conference on Sunday that he is providing the updated death toll in response to the inflated figures that Russia has quoted.

“31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in this war. Not 300,000 or 150,000, or whatever (Vladimir) Putin and his lying circle are saying. But each of these losses is a great loss for us,” Zelensky was quoted as saying by the BBC.

The Ukrainian President said he would not give the number of wounded as that would help Russian military planning.

Speaking about the wider losses in the war, the Ukrainian President said that tens of thousands of civilians had died in the areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia but the true number was unknown. “I don’t know how many of them died, how many were killed, how many were murdered, tortured, how many were deported,” he was quoted as saying by the British news broadcaster.

Zelensky’s tally differs sharply from estimates by US officials, who, in August last year, put the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed at 70,000.

In terms of Russian losses, he said that around 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and tens of thousands more injured.

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-Top News Europe

Western leaders in Kyiv to show support on war anniversary

Meloni and Trudeau are expected to sign security pacts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during their brief stay, in line with deals recently agreed with France and Germany that are worth billions of dollars…reports Asian Lite News

Four Western leaders arrived in Kyiv on Saturday to show solidarity with Ukraine on the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which has cost tens of thousands of lives and ravaged the country’s economy.

The prime ministers of Italy, Canada and Belgium – Giorgia Meloni, Justin Trudeau and Alexander De Croo – travelled with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on an overnight train from neighbouring Poland.

Their presence was designed to underline the West’s commitment to helping Ukraine even as it suffers growing shortages of military supplies, impacting its performance on the battlefield where Moscow is grinding out territorial gains.

Von der Leyen wrote on the social media platform X that she was in Kyiv “to celebrate the extraordinary resistance of the Ukrainian people”. She added: “More than ever, we stand firmly by Ukraine. Financially, economically, militarily, morally. Until the country is finally free.”

Meloni and Trudeau are expected to sign security pacts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during their brief stay, in line with deals recently agreed with France and Germany that are worth billions of dollars.

However, $61 billion in aid promised by U.S. President Joe Biden is being blocked by Republicans in Congress, casting a long shadow over Kyiv’s hopes of pushing back the much larger, better supplied Russian military.

Biden is due to take part in a video conference call of fellow leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies on Saturday, which will be chaired by Meloni, with Zelenskiy invited to join the discussion.

Italy holds the rotating presidency of the G7 and organised the call, saying it was vital to challenge perceptions that the West had grown weary of the conflict and that Russia was winning.

When Russian tanks and infantry streamed across the border before dawn on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine’s 40 million people defied expectations – and the Kremlin’s best-laid plans – by holding them back and preventing a widely predicted defeat.

But as the war enters its third year, setbacks on the eastern front have left the Ukraine army looking vulnerable. Seeking to maintain Western focus on Ukraine, even as the war between Israel and Hamas dominates headlines, Zelenskiy has warned that Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, may not stop at Ukraine’s borders if it emerges victorious.

Putin dismisses such claims as nonsense. He casts the war as a wider struggle with the United States, which the Kremlin elite says aims to cleave Russia apart. The West sees the invasion as an unjustified act of aggression that must be repelled.

There will be events across Ukraine on Saturday to mark the anniversary, including a commemoration service for those who died in Bucha, north of Kyiv – scene of some of the worst alleged war crimes of the conflict.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general said on Friday it had launched investigations into more than 122,000 suspected war crimes cases in the last two years. Russia denies carrying them out.

The initial shock of the invasion gradually morphed into familiarity and then fatigue, as the world watched initial Russian gains and a stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022 slow into grinding, attritional trench warfare.

In scenes reminiscent of the battlefields of World War One, soldiers under heavy artillery fire are dying in their thousands, sometimes for a few kilometres of land. Both sides have developed huge and increasingly sophisticated fleets of air, sea and land drones for surveillance and attack, an unprecedented use of unmanned vehicles that could point the way to future conflicts.

Russia, with a much bigger population to replenish the army’s ranks and a larger military budget, might favour a drawn-out war, although the costs have been huge for Moscow as it seeks to navigate sanctions and a growing reliance on China.

Ukraine’s position is more precarious. Villages, towns and cities have been razed, troops are exhausted, ammunition is running low and Russian missiles and drones rain down almost daily.

Russia this month registered its biggest victory in nine months, capturing the eastern town of Avdiivka and ending months of deadly urban combat. yet Zelenskiy remained defiant ahead of the anniversary.

“I am convinced that victory awaits us,” he told diplomats in Kyiv this week in an emotional address. “In particular, thanks to unity and your support.” Tens of thousands of troops have been killed on both sides and tens of thousands more wounded, while thousands of Ukrainian civilians have perished.

The scale of devastation in Ukraine is staggering. A recent World Bank study said that rebuilding Ukraine’s economy could cost nearly $500 billion. Two million housing units have been damaged or destroyed, and nearly 6 million people have fled abroad.

In addition to raising money and arms to continue the war, Zelenskiy is pushing legislation through parliament allowing Ukraine to mobilise up to half a million more troops – a target some economists say could paralyse the economy.

Russia’s finances have proved resilient so far to unprecedented sanctions. While natural gas exports have slumped, shipments of oil have held up, thanks largely to Indian and Chinese buying.

Russia’s GDP expanded 3.6% in 2023, although some Russia-based economists warned that this was driven by a leap in defence spending and that stagnation or recession loom.

That will not jeopardise Putin’s victory in elections in March, which he is set to win by a landslide amid broad support for his performance and for the war, described by the Kremlin as a “special military operation”.

In the last two years, authorities have cracked down hard on any form of dissent over the conflict. On Feb. 16, Putin’s most formidable domestic opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic penal colony where he was serving a 30-year sentence.

On Friday, Putin addressed troops fighting in Ukraine as Russia marked Defender of the Fatherland Day, hailing them as heroes battling for “truth and justice.”

He laid a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier at the foot of the Kremlin wall to honour those who have died in battle.

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Armed forces not ready for high-intensity war, MPs warn

The MPs said they were “increasingly concerned” about a “crisis” in the recruitment and retention of both regular personnel and reservists, with operational demands making recovery and training harder to achieve…reports Asian Lite News

The UK’s armed forces will not be ready for a “high-intensity” war unless shortages in personnel and equipment are rapidly addressed, MPs have warned. The Commons defence committee said personnel were leaving faster than they could be recruited, and the “offer” to them had to be improved.

A “vicious cycle” needed to be broken to allow the UK to face “increasingly challenging” threats, it added. Increasing recruitment and improving retention was a priority, the MoD said.

Last month, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the Army and outgoing Chief of the General Staff. called for the country to train a volunteer “citizen army” ready to fight a land war, warning that an increase in reservist numbers alone “would not be enough”.

He highlighted the threat from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, and pointed to steps being taken by other European nations to put their populations on a “war footing”.

He also called for more to be done to equip and modernise the armed services. Sir Patrick has previously argued for the need for a larger Army, whose professional ranks now number around 73,000, compared with around 100,000 in 2010.

The cross-party defence committee’s report, “Ready for war?”, found that, while it was a “matter of national pride” that whenever the armed forces were asked to act, they found a way, “overstretch has negatively impacted high intensity warfighting readiness due to the sheer pace of operations and other commitments”.

The MPs said they were “increasingly concerned” about a “crisis” in the recruitment and retention of both regular personnel and reservists, with operational demands making recovery and training harder to achieve.

As a result, the committee said, “it is unsurprising that more people are leaving the Forces than joining them”.

While acknowledging the problem and planning to address it, the government was not yet moving at the necessary pace to do so, it added.

A Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesperson said: “Increasing recruitment and improving retention across the services is a top priority. Our armed forces are always ready to protect and defend the UK, and we continue to meet all operational commitments.”

Another area of concern highlighted was that the £1.95bn allocated for boosting ammunition stockpiles in last year’s Budget might be used to meet existing shortfalls in resources, rather than to replenish and increase capabilities.

The MPs urged the MoD to reconsider and produce a breakdown of the allocation of money promised in the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Budgets.

The committee also called for improvements in procurement processes to increase the UK’s industrial capacity and production of munitions, both in the context of the Ukraine conflict and any future war.  This should include retaining retired equipment “even halfway viable for regeneration”, it said.

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21 Israeli soldiers killed in deadliest attack since war began

Israelis are increasingly divided on the question of whether it’s possible to do either…reports Asian Lite News

The Israeli army said Tuesday that 21 soldiers were killed in the Gaza Strip in the deadliest attack on its forces of the 3-month-old war against the militant Hamas group.

The reservists were preparing explosives to demolish two buildings in central Gaza on Monday when a militant fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a tank nearby, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief military spokesperson, said. The blast triggered the explosives, causing both two-story buildings to collapse on the soldiers inside.

The heavy death toll could add new momentum to calls for Israel to pause the offensive or even halt it altogether. Large numbers of Israeli casualties have put pressure on Israel’s government to halt past military operations.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to press ahead until Israel crushes the ruling Hamas militant group and wins the freedom of over 100 hostages held captive in Gaza. Israelis are increasingly divided on the question of whether it’s possible to do either.

Families of the hostages and many of their supporters have called for Israel to reach a ceasefire deal, saying that time is running out to bring the hostages home alive. On Monday, dozens of hostages’ relatives stormed a parliamentary committee meeting, demanding a deal to win their loved ones’ release.

Israel launched its offensive after Hamas’ Oct. 7 cross border attack that killed over 1,200 people and abducted some 250 others. More than 100 were released in November in exchange for a weeklong ceasefire and the release of 240 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

The offensive has caused widespread destruction, displaced an estimated 85 percent of Gaza’s population and left over 25,000 Palestinians dead, according to health officials in the Hamas-run territory. The United Nations and international aid agencies say the fighting has unleashed a humanitarian disaster, with a quarter of the area’s 2.3 million people facing starvation.

The war has heightened regional tensions, with Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen attacking United States and Israeli targets in support of Palestinians. The US and Britain launched another wave of strikes Monday against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have targeted international shipping in the Red Sea in what they portray as a blockade of Israel.

The attack that killed the soldiers occurred some 600 meters (yards) from the border in Maghazi, one of three built-up refugee camps in central Gaza dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation.

Ground operations have been focused on the camps, as well as the southern city of Khan Younis, after Israel claimed to have largely defeated Hamas in northern Gaza in operations that caused widespread destruction to that part of the territory, including Gaza City.

Dozens of Palestinians were killed Monday in heavy fighting in Khan Younis, where people dug graves in the courtyard of the city’s Nasser Hospital as staff struggled to deal with the large number of wounded people, including children.

Gaza’s Internet and phone networks collapsed again Monday for the 10th time during the war, posing another challenge for first responders and making it impossible for people to reach loved ones in different parts of the territory.

Israel believes Hamas commanders may be hiding in vast tunnel complexes beneath Khan Younis, the hometown of the group’s top leader in Gaza, Yehya Sinwar, whose location is unknown. Hamas leaders are also believed to be using hostages as human shields, further complicating any rescue efforts.

The growing death toll and dire humanitarian situation have led to increasing international pressure to scale back the offensive and agree to negotiate the creation of a Palestinian state after the war. Netanyahu has rebuffed both demands.

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Patients, staff leave Al-Shifa hospital

The United Nations estimated 2,300 patients, staff and displaced Palestinians were sheltering at Al-Shifa before Israeli troops entered the facility on Wednesday…reports Asian Lite News

Hundreds of people fled on foot Saturday after Israel’s army ordered the evacuation of Gaza’s main hospital where more than 2,000 patients, medics and displaced people were trapped by the war between Israel and Hamas.

Health officials in the Hamas-ruled territory said 450 patients unable to be moved remained at Al-Shifa hospital. The facility has become the focus of the war that is entering its seventh week after Hamas’s October 7 attacks on southern Israel.

Israel has been pressing military operations inside the hospital, searching for the Hamas operations center it says lies under the sprawling complex — a charge Hamas denies.

Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas in response to the October 7 attacks which Israeli officials say killed about 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and saw about 240 people taken hostage.

The army’s air and ground campaign has since killed 12,000 people, including 5,000 children, according to the Hamas government which has ruled Gaza since 2007.

They called the hospital’s director, Mohammed Abu Salmiya, to instruct him to ensure “the evacuation of patients, wounded, the displaced and medical staff, and that they should move on foot toward the seafront,” he said.

Israel has come under mounting pressure to back up its allegations that Hamas is using hospitals as command centers, a charge denied by Hamas, an Islamist movement with an armed wing. Al-Shifa hospital has also rejected the allegation.

The United Nations estimated 2,300 patients, staff and displaced Palestinians were sheltering at Al-Shifa before Israeli troops entered the facility on Wednesday.

Israel has told Palestinians to move from the north of Gaza for their safety, but deadly air strikes continue to hit central and southern areas of the narrow coastal territory.

“They said the south was safer, so we moved,” Azhar Al-Rifi said.

But her family was caught in another strike that killed seven relatives, including her five-year-old nephew.

Nada Abu Hiya, aged eight, said she suffered the third bombing of the war at the Nuseirat refugee camp on Friday.

“There are bombings everywhere,” she said. “My grandmother is dead, my mother is dead, my grandfather is dead, my uncle is dead, they destroyed our house. Our neighbors’ house is also destroyed and they are all dead.”

Israel has imposed a siege on Gaza, allowing just a trickle of aid in from Egypt but barring most shipments of fuel over concerns Hamas could divert supplies for military purposes.

A first consignment of fuel entered Gaza after Israel’s war cabinet bowed to pressure from its ally the United States and agreed to allow two diesel tankers a day into the Palestinian territory.

“We took that decision to prevent the spread of epidemics,” Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said.

A two-day blackout caused by fuel shortages ended after a first delivery arrived from Egypt late Friday, but UN officials continued to plead for a ceasefire, warning no part of Gaza is safe. A senior US official said Washington had exerted huge pressure on Israel for weeks to allow fuel in.

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) said 70 percent of residents have no access to clean water in south Gaza, where raw sewage has begun to flow on the streets.

Under the deal, 140,000 liters (37,000 gallons) of fuel would be allowed in every 48 hours, of which 20,000 liters will be earmarked for generators to restore the phone network, the US official said.

A communications blackout hampered aid deliveries, UNRWA said. Humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told the UN General Assembly that fuel supplies to the agency so far were “a fraction of what is needed to meet the minimum of our humanitarian responsibilities.”

The Hamas health ministry said 24 patients had died in 48 hours due to the lack of fuel for generators. In the latest bloodshed, a strike on a residential building in the southern city of Hamad killed 26 people, the director of the Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis said.

“I was asleep and we were surprised by the strike. At least 20 bombs were dropped,” Imed Al-Mubasher, 45 said.

His wife Sabrin Mussa said: “All of a sudden, the house caught fire. I found myself with gravel in my mouth and I immediately looked for my husband and daughters. “I saw human remains everywhere,” and screamed for help, she said.

The Israeli military has yet to respond to a request for comment.

Israel has come under scrutiny for targeting hospitals in northern Gaza, but says the facilities are being used by Hamas — a claim rejected by the group and medical staff.

The military says it has found rifles, ammunition, explosives and the entrance to a tunnel shaft at the hospital complex, claims that cannot be independently verified.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, without providing details, that there were “strong indications” hostages may have been held at the Shifa facility.

Israel has not recovered hostages at the hospital but said it found the bodies of two kidnapped women not far away.

The remains of kidnapped woman soldier Noa Marciano, 19, were found at “a structure adjacent to Al-Shifa hospital” on Friday, a day after the body of 65-year-old Yehudit Weiss was recovered.

Those held hostage range from infants to octogenarians, and there has been little information on their fate despite ongoing negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt to secure releases.

In Gaza, more than 1.5 million people have been internally displaced, and Israel’s blockade has left civilians facing the “immediate possibility of starvation,” according to World Food Programme head Cindy McCain.

More than half of Gaza’s hospitals are no longer functional due to combat, damage or shortages, and people are waiting four to six hours for half the normal portion of bread.

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-Top News India News

India Inc ‘unaffected’ by Israel-Hamas war, says CRISIL

Israel is a major global producer of muriate of potash (MoP) and among the top three countries that India imports…reports Asian Lite News

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, confined mainly to the Gaza region now, has caused only negligible disruption in India’s trade so far, said Crisil Ratings, implying that the Indian companies were not in the crosshairs for now.

Some sectors such as fertilisers and diamonds — both cut and polished — may see a slight, but manageable, impact, while for most others impact will be insignificant, the rating agency said on Tuesday in a report.

However, the conflict has driven up prices of gold and crude oil.

“Their trajectories will bear watching, especially crude oil, given India’s high dependence on its import. Also, elevated crude oil prices have a cascading impact on a host of other sectors that consume the oil itself or linked raw materials,” the Crisil report noted.

India’s trade with Israel is relatively low, accounting for 1.9 per cent of total exports and 0.3 per cent of total imports last fiscal

The merchandise exports mainly comprise polished diamonds and petroleum products, including refined hydrocarbons, while imports largely comprise industrial equipment, fertilizers, rough diamonds and precious stones.

For domestic diamond polishers, Israel is primarily a trading hub. Exports to the country were 5 per cent of total diamond

exports from India last fiscal. Additionally, 2 per cent of all roughs imported are from Israel. Polishers also have alternative trading hubs, such as Belgium and the United Arab Emirates, with ultimate customers based in the US and Europe.

Israel is a major global producer of muriate of potash (MoP) and among the top three countries that India imports

from, accounting for 25 per cent of all MoP imports last fiscal. However, the share of MoP (as a final product or as an

ingredient in other fertilisers) remains low at 10 per cent of domestic fertiliser consumption.

Crisil said India’s ability to source from other countries lowers the supply risk.

The CRisil report, however, cautioned that any spillover of the conflict to nearby oil producing and exporting regions could result in supply-related constraints and spiralling prices of crude oil.

Within a week of the conflict, crude oil prices rose 4 per cent to USD 90 per barrel but have stabilised a tad lower thereafter.

A sharp rise in crude oil prices will impact linked sectors in India, such as aviation, automotives, paints, tyres, cement, chemicals, synthetic textiles and flexible packaging.

Besides, higher inflation may lead to interest rates continuing to rule firms in India till the conflict de-escalates, the rating agency noted.

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From ‘war against Ukraine’ to ‘war in Ukraine’

The Delhi Declaration emphasised that “Today’s era must not be of war”…reports Asian Lite News

Despite euphoria over the consensus achieved on the Delhi Declaration, mainly on the language pertaining to the Ukraine conflict, the wordings are a significant climb down from wordings used in Bali Declaration.

The Delhi Declaration refers to “war in Ukraine” and not “war against Ukraine”, in a significant shift in language from the Bali Declaration last year.

It also hints at a climb down by G7 nations and European Union over language from Bali.

In another watering down from its earlier stand, the Delhi Declaration also acknowledged that, “While the G20 is not the platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues, we acknowledge that these issues can have significant consequences for the global economy.”

On Friday, while replying to a question on whether the Ukraine conflict could derail the G20 summit, the Indian Sherpa Amitabh Kant had said: “G20 is a forum for discussing issues of growth and development. However last in Bali (G20 summit) it was felt that war and conflict impact economy and growth so it was discussed.”

Meanwhile, the climb down is evident from these passages of the Delhi Declaration.

“Concerning the war in Ukraine, while recalling the discussion in Bali, we reiterated our national positions and resolutions adopted at the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly and underscored that all states must act in a manner consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter in its entirety,” the final Delhi outcome document reads. We highlighted the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation and growth, which has complicated the policy environment for countries, especially developing and least developed countries which are still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic disruption which has derailed progress towards the SDGs.”

The G20 negotiators have been working tirelessly to arrive at an agreement on the Ukraine issue. The West has time and again called for unanimous condemnation of Russia and President Vladimir Putin over causing deaths and destruction in its neighbouring nation. They have also urged India to denounce Russian aggression and take a tougher stance over the war in Ukraine.

“In line with the UN Charter, all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state,” the Delhi Declaration said on war in Ukraine.

The resolution noted the impact of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation and growth. The issues have adversely impacted the developing and least developed nations.

The declaration adopted under India’s presidency called for “all states to uphold the principles of international law including territorial integrity and sovereignty, international humanitarian law, and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability.”

It supported a “comprehensive, just, and durable peace” in Ukraine and advocated conflict resolution through diplomacy and dialogue.

The Delhi Declaration emphasised that “Today’s era must not be of war”.

With this, it appears that the G20 delegates had reached a compromise on the language of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The bloc, which had met over eight months after war broke out in Ukraine, in a statement said it “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” and demanded Moscow’s “complete and unconditional withdrawal” from Kyiv.

Notably, the Bali statement mentioned that “most members” had strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and acknowledged that there were “other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

“Many members agreed that the recovery of the global economy has slowed and is facing a major setback as a result of Russiaôs war against Ukraine, which was strongly condemned, and called for an end to the war. One member expressed the view that the sanctions are adding to existing challenges,” the statement had mentioned.

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Russia Takes Down 42 Ukrainian Drones over Crimea

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly vowed to restore Kiev’s rule in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014…reports Asian Lite News

The Russian Defence Ministry on Friday claimed to have destroyed 42 Ukrainian drones over Crimea, the latest in a series of recent reported attacks by Kiev on the occupied Peninsula.

In a social media post, the Ministry said that nine of the drones were shot down and the remaining 33 were jammed by electronic warfare equipment and crashed without reaching their targets, CNN reported.

“Overnight, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out terrorist attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles on Russian Federation territory has been thwarted,” the post added. 

The Ministry also claimed that Ukraine had launched an upgraded S-200 air defence complex missile that was detected and shot down by Russian forces over the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow. 

Ukraine is yet to comment on the developments.

Russia’s claims came a day after Ukraine carried out what appeared to be one of its most complex and ambitious operations to date against Russian military facilities in Crimea, involving Ukrainian special forces landing on the western shore of the peninsula to attack Russian units.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly vowed to restore Kiev’s rule in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. 

In recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks in the area, including the key Kerch Bridge that links the peninsula to mainland Russia.

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