Both leaders expressed delight at the opportunity to strengthen the bilateral relationship….reports Asian Lite News
On the sidelines of the 7th Indian Ocean Conference, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Australian counterpart, Senator Penny Wong, held discussions in Perth today on a spectrum of global issues, including the Indo-Pacific and the situation in West Asia.
The meeting commenced with a warm exchange between EAM Jaishankar and FM Wong. Both leaders expressed delight at the opportunity to strengthen the bilateral relationship.
The talks primarily centered around the comprehensive strategic partnership between India and Australia. Both ministers reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing cooperation in various domains, with a particular focus on matters related to the Indian Ocean region.
EAM Jaishankar and Senator Wong discussed the Indo-Pacific region, acknowledging the strategic importance it holds. The leaders explored avenues for collaborative efforts to address shared challenges and promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The situation in West Asia also featured prominently in the discussions.
“Delighted to meet FM @SenatorWong of Australia in Perth today as we gather for the 7th Indian Ocean Conference. Good exchange on our comprehensive strategic partnership and convergence on matters related to the Indian Ocean. Also discussed the Indo-Pacific, situation in West Asia and other regional and global topics,” said EAM Jaishankar in a post on X.
Notably, Jaishankar will address the two-day 7th Indian Ocean Conference in Perth that gets underway today with the theme “Towards a Stable and Sustainable Indian Ocean.”
The Indian Ocean Conference is a flagship consultative forum for countries in the Indian Ocean Region, organised annually by the Ministry of External Affairs, in association with the India Foundation.
The conference will be held in association with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Government of Australia, along with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, and the Perth-US Asia Centre in Australia.
According to a Ministry of External Affairs press release, “The theme of this edition of the conference is Towards a Stable and Sustainable Indian Ocean.”
This significant gathering, organised annually by the Ministry of External Affairs in association with the India Foundation, marks a collaborative effort with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Government of Australia, the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, and the Perth-US Asia Centre in Australia.
The 7th Indian Ocean Conference brings together distinguished leaders and delegates to deliberate on crucial regional issues.
The event will witness participation from delegations led by ministers from over 22 countries, senior officials from 16 countries, and six multilateral organisations. Furthermore, over 400 social and corporate leaders, policy practitioners, scholars, professionals, and media personnel from about 40 countries actively engaged in the Conference.
Since its inception in 2016 in Singapore, the Indian Ocean Conference has been instrumental in fostering collaboration among nations and principal maritime partners in the region. Through its platform, the Conference endeavours to facilitate discourse on the prospects of regional cooperation for Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).
The 7th Indian Ocean Conference stands as a testament to the collective commitment towards enhancing stability and sustainability across the Indian Ocean Region. (ANI)
As per the Ministry, the visit aims to strengthen long-standing diplomatic ties, enhance maritime cooperation, and promote interoperability…reports Asian Lite News
The Indian Coast Guard Ship Sajag, an Offshore Patrol Vessel, arrived at Port Sultan Qaboos, Muscat, Oman for a three-day visit as part of the overseas deployment of ICG ships to West Asia, Ministry of Defence (MoD) said on Wednesday.
As per the Ministry, the visit aims to strengthen long-standing diplomatic ties, enhance maritime cooperation, and promote interoperability with the Royal Oman Police Coast Guard (ROPCG) and other maritime agencies.
During the visit, a number of activities and interactions are scheduled including professional interactions such as onboard training and lectures, Board Search and Seizure (VBSS) and Maritime Search and Rescue (M-SAR), cross-deck visits, joint yoga sessions, planning conferences, and table-top exercises for Marine Pollution Response (MPR). There will be courtesy calls by the Commanding Officer on various dignitaries and government officials of Oman, including the Royal Oman Police Coast Guard.
According to the MoD, the visit of ICGS Sajag to West Asia underscores India’s ongoing efforts to foster friendly relations through maritime cooperation, aligning with the maritime vision of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, known as “SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region,” with due emphasis on the “Global South.”
This visit would play a crucial role in strengthening bilateral relationships with key maritime agencies, including the Royal Oman Police Coast Guard (ROPCG), Saudi Border Guards and Naval Forces, and UAE Coast Guards & Critical Infrastructure and Coastal Authority (CICPA).
These relationships, developed over the years, aim to ensure the safety, security, and cleanliness of the seas in the region while addressing contemporary maritime issues. Engagements with senior officials and personnel from these agencies during the visit will further enhance regional safety and security.
Oman and India have historically maintained warm and friendly bilateral relations, sharing common values and diverse cultures. Regular interactions between ICG and ROPCG occur through annually conducted High-Level Meetings (HLM) and ICG ship visits, guided by the provisions of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
The overseas deployment of ICG ships aligns with the organization’s plan to foster bilateral relationships and strengthen international cooperation with Foreign Friendly Countries (FFCs). During this West Asia deployment, the ship is also scheduled to make port calls in Ad Dammam, Saudi Arabia, and Mina Rashid, UAE.
ICGS Sajag is part of the Indian Coast Guard fleet of OPVs, based on the West Coast of India in Porbandar, Gujarat, and operates under the operational command of Commander Coast Guard Region (North West).
The ship is equipped with modern weapon systems, sensors, state-of-the-art navigation and communication systems, including an integral helicopter to support both surface and air operations. Sajag has undertaken various Coast Guard operations, including Coastal Security and IMBL / EEZ surveillance, anti-transnational crimes, and Maritime SAR and Pollution Response operations in the past. (ANI)
On Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) likely action, Chowdhury said it would only watch the evolving scenario and is unlikely to take any action at this point in time….writes Venkatachari Jagannathan
Senior Economists are in a wait and watch mode as to the impact of Israel – Hamas war on the Indian economy while agreeing there may be a crude oil supply challenge if the war spreads across West Asia.
They said it is a bit early to comment on the impact as the situation has to be monitored.
“In the worst case, there is also a likelihood of the conflict spreading across West Asia and involving several nations. That may lead to further supply challenges in crude oil where supply cuts by OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producing countries) have already led to a rise in global prices,” Suman Chowdhury, the Chief Economist and Head of Research, Acuite Ratings & Research Ltd told IANS.
Chowdhury said with the rise in geo-political conflict, the global economy and trade may face further slowdown with a resurgence of inflation risks and higher volatility in the global markets which in turn can have an adverse effect on the rupee.
“However, the direct impact of the conflict is going to be limited as Israel’s trade with India is a little over $10 billion with exports to Israel at $8.5 billion and imports at $2.3 billion in FY23,” Chowdhury said.
On his part Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda told IANS: “The economic impact will be seen through oil price first followed by currency.”
On Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) likely action, Chowdhury said it would only watch the evolving scenario and is unlikely to take any action at this point in time.
“As RBI gets more watchful, bond yields will stay high. Inflation impact will be seen on the Wholesale Price Index and not Consumer Price Index. As retail fuel prices will not be changed, higher crude prices will show on the oil marketing companies or fiscal if the government absorbs the same,” Sabnavis said.
“However, it will (RBI) endeavour to maintain the system liquidity on a tighter side through tools like OMO (open market operations) sales which may have an impact on bond yields,” Chowdhury said.
“Indian government may also take mitigating steps to cool down the prices of essential commodities in case the conflict expands to a full fledged war in West Asia and new supply bottlenecks emerge,” Chowdhury added.
On the other hand the gold prices are expected to go up due to the war.
Jayantilal Challani, President, Madras Jewellers and Diamond Merchants Association and a partner in Challani Jewellry Mart told IANS that the price went up on Saturday due to the war.
crude oil, UAE-based Indian national sanctioned by US for smuggling Iranian oil.
Indian Oil Firms to take a hit
High crude oil prices will weaken the profitability of the country’s three state-owned oil marketing companies — Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) — as they have limited flexibility to pass on higher raw material costs to consumers due to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections in May 2024, according to a report by Moody’s.
The report points out that the market margins of the three oil companies — the difference between their net realized prices and international prices — have already weakened significantly from the high levels seen in the April-June quarter of the current financial year.
Marketing margins on diesel turned negative since August while margins on petrol have narrowed considerably over the same period as international prices increased.
The earnings of the three OMCs, all of which enjoy a Baa3 stable rating, will weaken in the second half of fiscal 2024 if oil prices remain elevated at current levels of $85/barrel (bbl) – $90/bbl. Still, full-year earnings will remain comparable with historical levels at this price range, the Moody’s report states.
The OMCs, however, will start incurring EBITDA losses in the second half of fiscal 2024 if crude oil prices increase to around $100/ bbl.
Nonetheless, we believe high oil prices are unlikely to be sustained for long as global growth weakens, the report adds.
The increase in raw material costs comes after the price of crude oil jumped around 17 per cent to more than $90/bbl in September, from an average of $78/bbl in 1Q fiscal 2024.
On the positive side the report states that the credit metrics of the OMCs will remain well positioned through fiscal 2024. The oil companies will maintain their credit quality, helped by strong balance sheets. Additional capital from the government, if made available, will further support their credit metrics.
Among the three companies, HPCL has the lowest buffer to tolerate a material increase in crude oil prices because of substantial marketing losses in fiscal 2023 which resulted in borrowings, according to the report.
With US pitted firmly against Russia currently, Syria’s rehabilitation is yet another reflection of states like Saudi Arabia exercising strategic autonomy, writes Aditi Bhaduri
On May 7, the League of Arab States admitted Syria back into its fold, following its suspension more than 12 years ago, after the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. The move came in the wake of the Arab ministerial meeting in Amman, where foreign ministers from Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria itself. A liaison committee including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia will follow up “the implementation of the Amman Declaration and to continue direct dialogue with the Syrian government to reach a comprehensive solution to the Syrian crisis that addresses all its consequences, according to a step-by-step methodology,” a statement issued by the Arab League said.
Syria had been thrown out of the Arab League in 2011 following the government’s military confrontation against protestors at a time when the so called “Arab Spring” was sweeping across the region, and which sparked a brutal fratricidal war resulting in the deaths of at least half a million people and the displacement of millions of others, generating a staggering refugee crisis.
The move also comes after the March 2023 China brokered peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and which must have eased the path towards Syria’s rehabilitation as during the civil war Iran supported the Bashar Al Assad headed Syrian government while Saudi Arabia and other Arab states supported opposition and rebel fighters, some of whom are today identified as terrorist groups proscribed by the United Nations.
Following the Iran-Saudi truce, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad visited Saudi Arabia, on the first such visit since the start of the Syrian war, which was soon followed up by a reciprocal visit by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan to Damascus. Saudi Arabia has also invited President Bashar Al Assad to the kingdom to attend the 19th May Arab League summit meet to be held in Jeddah.
While the Iran-Saudi truce has made it easier for Syria’s rehabilitation within the League, reconciliation with Arab states has been an ongoing process for a while now. While states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan had allied themselves with anti-Assad groups in the initial years of the Syrian civil war, the actual establishment of an ISIS caliphate, almost on the borders of the oil rich sheikhdoms, albeit temporarily, the different dangers spilling over from that war as well as the Arab Spring– refugee crisis, drug smuggling, human trafficking, lawlessness and terrorism from a regime change in Libya, the rise and spread of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology in the region, the attacks within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE by ISIS – all caused a rethink. Added to it was the diminished US role – and it may be argued even disinterest in the region – acted as further catalyst for the future reconciliation with Assad ruled Syria.
The Saudis and Emiratis intervened in the Yemen civil war, following a similar US refusal to intervene, as well as that of the Arabs’ old pals like Pakistan. The result was that they were caught in a quagmire with no exit in sight while the Iran backed Houthi rebels continued their onslaught. The Arabs realized they needed a regional strategy, which did not exclude making peace with Israel either, or reaching out to those on the other side of the divide like Turkey and Iran.
Since at least 2019, Arab states had begun dealing with the situation pragmatically, reaching out to Syria by reopening their embassies or/and derive commercial gains through investment in the country’s reconstruction and Syria needs massive reconstruction. While Oman continued to maintain ties with Syria, Abu Dhabi reopened its Damascus embassy in 2018.
The 2019 Damascus International Trade Fair would be a good barometer to gauge the Arab mood regarding Syria. In spite of the sanctions slapped on by the USA against the country – the Ceasar Act was signed in 2019 – and, despite the threats of then US President Donald Trump to impose sanctions on the countries participating in it, the exhibition opened with a large Arab participation, especially from Oman, Kuwait, and the UAE. There was a significant increase in the number of companies that participated that year as compared to the one held the preceding year – an increase of 500 Arab and foreign companies according to Syrian government estimates.
In November 2021, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan visited Damascus, and in 2022 President Assad made his historic trip to the UAE – his very first to an Arab country since the outbreak of the Syrian war. It was the UAE that majorly facilitated the Arab reconciliation with Assad ruled Syria and the country’s return to the Arab League, which became inevitable. More importantly, as UAE Minister Anwar Gargash explained, an Arab role in Syria had become necessary to combat the growing influence of Turkey and Iran.
Syria’s re-admission to the Arab League is also symptomatic of the diminishing US influence in West Asia. The US majorly backed the Syrian opposition, arming the Free Syrian Army, which pitted it directly against Russia, which militarily intervened inside Syria, supporting the Assad government. The US slapped on a slew of sanctions on Syria, against the Assad family, military and government entities, as well as on Iranian and Russian entities that facilitated their governments’ support to the Syrian regime, and tried overtly and covertly to engineer regime change in Syria. When UAE Foreign Minister visited Damascus he broke with the American consensus to negotiate with Assad ruled Syria. When Assad visited Abu Dhabi, it came against the background of the Ukraine war, with the US and NATO firmly pitted against Moscow. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Washington was “profoundly disappointed and troubled by this apparent attempt to legitimize Bashar al-Assad…”.
For it was Russian and Iranian intervention in the war and Assad’s tenacious hold over power, his ability to crush Islamists, that had won the day for Assad. For the Arabs, neither America’s appeasement of Turkey, nor its ongoing feud with Iran was conducive for regional stability. Hence, the rapprochement with Iran, as the earlier outreach to Turkey. Yet, despite these outreaches, the threats continue to lurk beneath the surface, and Syria can provide a strong bulwark against them. Thus, Syria’s return to the Arab fold was simply a matter of time.
Primary for the countries of the region, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council states, is regime security, stability within its borders, and preservation of the nation-state. For countries like Saudi Arabia with a large youth population this first and foremost demands a stable neighbourhood, eliminating the external threat, and building bridges and forming new partnerships. The US has of course voiced its opposition to Syria’s reinstatement to the League. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters that,“We do not believe that Syria merits readmission to the Arab League at this time, and it’s a point that we’ve made clear with all of our partners.” With US pitted firmly against Russia currently, Syria’s rehabilitation it is yet another reflection of states like Saudi Arabia exercising strategic autonomy.
What does it mean for India? India had continued to maintain ties with Syrian government right through the civil war, refusing to break diplomatic relations. It has sent humanitarian and other aid to Syria, hosted Syrian government officials, and has called for lifting of western sanctions from that country. Its position on Syria has been vindicated. Much of the non-Western world has also held a similar position, disregarding Western calls for a regime change. Much like it has in the Ukraine war, with Syria too the US and its western allies will find that they have an exaggerated sense of their influence in the world.
New Delhi, Mar 29 (ANI): National Security Advisor Ajit Doval delivers the opening remarks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) level NSA meeting, in New Delhi on Wednesday. (ANI Photo)
National Security Advisor met his counterparts from the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates…reports Asian Lite News
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval Sunday met his counterparts from the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss an ambitious proposal being pushed by the White House to link West Asian countries through rail — using Indian expertise — and connect the region to South Asia via sea lanes.
Sources in New Delhi said Doval has travelled to Saudi Arabia for Sunday’s meeting. The participants are expected to discuss the broad contours of the massive joint project to build railway, maritime and road connectivity in the larger region, linking the Indian subcontinent in South Asia with West Asia — which the US calls the Middle East.
The US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Saudi PM and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan yesterday in Saudi Arabia to advance their shared vision of a more secure… pic.twitter.com/g4BIbPKcJW
The development was first reported by US news website Axios. It said this is among the key initiatives the White House wants to push in the Middle East as China’s influence in the region grows. The Middle East is a key part of China’s Belt and Road vision.
Axios reported: “The US, Saudi, Emirati and Indian national security advisers are expected on Sunday to discuss a possible major joint infrastructure project to connect Gulf and Arab countries via a network of railways that would also be connected to India via shipping lanes from ports in the region.”
Sources in Delhi explained that the Indian side is keen to participate in the project as it fulfils three strategic objectives.
First, Beijing has expanded its sphere of political influence in the West Asian region through what Delhi views as “mission creep” — the breakthrough in ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran had caught India unawares. This has potential implications for India’s interests in West Asia, which provides energy security. Such connectivity will allow for faster movement of the crude and minimise India’s costs in the long term. The connectivity boost will also help India’s eight million citizens who live and work in the Gulf region.
Second, the project will help India build a brand as an infrastructure builder in the railways sector. Boasting a strong rail network at home and buoyed by the success of creating such infrastructure in Sri Lanka, India has the confidence to do it overseas. It wants private companies as well as public sector enterprises to explore the potential economic and infrastructure opportunities in the region. This will also have the effect of countering the Chinese Belt and Road project, which has burdened many countries in the region with infrastructure that has limited utility. The US, which had proposed the Blue Dot network, is one of the elements in the creation of the connectivity project that will be financially sustainable and viable.
Third, the government feels that India’s connectivity to its western neighbours has been limited for long by Pakistan’s blocking of overland transit routes. So, Delhi wants to use shipping routes to reach West Asian ports. These include Chabahar and Bandar-e-Abbas (Iran), Duqm (Oman), Dubai (UAE), Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) and Kuwait City. Connectivity projects crisscrossing the Gulf and Arab countries, with Indian stakes, open up trading opportunities.
According to the Axios report, the idea for the new initiative came up during talks held over the last 18 months in a forum called I2U2, which includes the US, Israel, the UAE and India. The forum was established in late 2021 to discuss strategic infrastructure projects in West Asia.
With China in mind, Israel raised the idea of connecting the region through railways during the I2U2 meetings over the last year. Part of the idea was to use India’s expertise on such big infrastructure projects, a former Israeli official was quoted as saying by Axios.
The Biden administration in recent months expanded on the idea to include Saudi Arabia’s participation. The initiative would include connecting Arab countries in the Levant and the Gulf via a network of railways that will also connect to India through seaports in the Gulf, sources told the US news outlet.
NSA #AjitDoval met his United States and United Arab Emirates (UAE) counterparts and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday to reportedly discuss a major joint infrastructure project. #FPExplained#SaudiArabiahttps://t.co/hIn2B914dZ
S NSA Jake Sullivan hinted at this initiative during his speech Thursday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If you remember nothing else from my speech, remember I2U2, because you will be hearing more about it as we go forward,” he said.
Sullivan said the basic plan is to connect South Asia, the Middle East and the US “in ways that advance our economic technology and diplomacy”.
He said a number of projects are already underway, along with “some new exciting steps that we are looking forward to undertaking in the months ahead”.
The US NSA said in his speech that one of the pillars of the Biden administration’s strategy in the Middle East is regional integration.
“A more integrated, interconnected Middle East empowers our allies and partners, advances regional peace and prosperity, and reduces the resource demands on the US in this region over the long term without sacrificing our fundamental interests or our involvement in the region,” he said.
According to the Axios report, Israel is not part of this initiative at the moment, but could be added to it in the future if efforts to normalise relations in the region make progress.
