Some US politicians appended China and Russia to the list as a “new axis of evil”. It is clear that a loose alliance of authoritarian states does exist, and that they are seeking to undermine the Western-led status quo….reports Asian Lite News
President George W Bush coined the phrase “axis of evil” in 2002, as he generated public support for his foreign affairs agenda after the 9/11 attacks. At that point, Bush’s axis of evil referred to Iran, Ba’athist Iraq and North Korea.
Later, some US politicians appended China and Russia to the list as a “new axis of evil”. It is clear that a loose alliance of authoritarian states does exist, and that they are seeking to undermine the Western-led status quo.
China is one of those axis pillars, alongside Iran, North Korea and Russia. Apart from their convergent aim to unseat the USA, what is remarkable is their disparate natures – one a communist powerhouse, another is an ex-superpower attempting to regain legitimacy, and there is a radical Muslim regime and dynastic totalitarian state. Their vastly different natures determine they can never be close allies, but they are unafraid to support each other to attain their own ends.
The closeness of these partners was apparent at the annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia from October 22 to 24. Xi went there in person, meeting President Vladimir Putin for the third time this year. Putin reveled in the spotlight, demonstrating he is not isolated as he brushed shoulders and shook hands with a bevy of national leaders.
Even UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres joined the BRICS summit, prioritizing it above the first Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. The optics were made worse as Guterres shook Putin’s hand and hugged Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.
Last year, original BRICS members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa welcomed Iran, the UAE, Egypt and Ethiopia into the fold. This year, new partner members include Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Having so many nations clamouring to join BRICS strengthens Sino-Russian efforts to belittle rival Western institutions.
Zhang Hanhui, China’s Ambassador to Russia, said, “China and Russia are pioneers in…building a community with a shared future for mankind.” He said the two nations are “strengthening the unity of developing countries and the Global South”. Yet China’s vision for a shared future is an alarming one. It involves war, tight controls over civil society, censorship and nationalism.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the China-Iran-North Korea-Russia quartet as a revisionist threat since they are “aggressively challenging our interests and values and are determined to alter the foundational principles of the part of the international system.”
China continues to tacitly supply equipment and materiel to aid Moscow’s war machine. Iran, too, is eagerly supplying weapons like loitering munitions and drones to Russia.
The USA rolled out a new round of sanctions in October, including a further 14 Chinese firms accused of supplying dual-use machine tools and microelectronics to Russia.
In response, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said, “The US makes false accusations against China’s trade with Russia, just as it continues to pour unprecedented military aid into Ukraine – this is typical double standard.”
A RAND research report, entitled, Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation, was recently published. It asserted, “The importance that Putin and Xi have placed on the Russia-China relationship and their commitment to this partnership since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that Moscow and Beijing are w
illing to sustain their mutual support even in the most difficult situations. As Russia’s fortunes have declined over the past decade, particularly since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China’s relative power has continued to increase, making China the de facto although not explicitly acknowledged senior partner in the relationship.”
Russia is aware of this, but its relation with China remains a vital lifeline in its time of need. “China’s support has helped Russia withstand some of the most negative consequences of Western sanctions, particularly through its purchase of record amounts of energy and continued engagement at the highest levels,” the RAND authors said. “From Moscow’s perspective, partnership with China is a strategic imperative for Russia to maintain any claim to great power status.”
Yet things took a turn for the worse – and complicated relations within the “axis of evil” – as North Korea dispatched up to 12,000 troops to support Russia’s prosecution of war against Ukraine.
US government officials are now leaning on Beijing to dissuade Pyongyang from this course of action. As a State Department spokesperson put it, the American outreach to China is “to make clear that we think this ought to be a source of concern for China as well as other countries in the region”. Some 90% of North Korean imports and exports are channeled through China, giving the latter tremendous clout. However, such an American request smacks of desperation and fantasy.
The USA once asked Xi to convince Putin not to invade Ukraine, but China’s response was to reassure Moscow that nobody would divide their alliance. Later, Washington DC asked China to pressure the Houthis to desist from terrorizing international shipping in the Red Sea. China’s response? It is indirectly financing the Houthis by buying 90% of Iranian oil exports, and it also struck a deal to protect its own cargo ships.
Despite People’s Liberation Army counter-piracy task groups being continuously stationed in the Gulf of Aden since 2008, China has done nothing to help commercial shipping attacked by the Houthis.
And yet the USA thinks Beijing will somehow change its tune and now prevail upon Kim Jong-un to withdraw his troops from Russia? Such a hope is misplaced.
China’s reaction to news of North Korean troops fighting for Russia has been coy. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said, “I have nothing to share. China’s position on the Ukraine crisis and the Korean Peninsula issue is consistent.” Ironically, its consistent position is to emptily demand “de-escalation”, refuse to condemn Russia’s invasion, and continue shipping materials to Russia. North Korea is unlikely to be swayed by any Chinese overtures, even if the latter decided to try.
Euan Graham, Senior Analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, commented, “China makes a show of not liking it, but actually does nothing to stop North Korea sending weapons and troops to Ukraine. Why? Because China wants to hold its nose, but actually likes the smell. The only thing Beijing dislikes is that Russia (and nukes) gives Kim Jong-un more agency than he would otherwise have. But that’s a proprietary interest, not a meaningful difference.
Plausible deniability is closer to the mark.” Nonetheless, many analysts believe China is not happy about this military development, because it reduces Pyongyang’s traditional dependence on Beijing and gives it another outlet for trade. North Korea is benefitting from Russian purchases of ballistic missiles and innumerable artillery rounds. Reverse sharing of critical military technologies to North Korea should also be part of the agreement.
China’s displeasure can be seen in small ways. For instance, China’s ambassador to North Korea did not attend anniversary commemorations marking 75 years of diplomatic relations in July. Later, when Xi wrote a reply to Kim thanking him for his congratulatory message marking communist China’s 75th anniversary, he deliberately omitted a phrase referring to North Korea as a “friendly neighboring country”. Such words have traditionally appeared in correspondence, and presumably indicate Xi’s displeasure at what Kim is doing.
Closer Russian-North Korean ties could upset the uneasy balance of power on the Korean Peninsula, since South Korea, Japan and the USA may seek to strengthen their alliance. This would alarm Beijing. In the Korean War there was a China-Russia-North Korea triangle, but Beijing will not wish to return to such Cold War tensions, nor for the counter-triangle of Japan, South Korea and the USA to grow stronger. China sees North Korea as a critical buffer state protecting its own land border from direct Western influence. North Korea is China’s solitary military alliance partner. That means Beijing is obligated under the terms of the treaty to come to Pyongyang’s aid in case of attack. Yet, by allying itself with Russia, North Korea has made itself a legitimate target for Ukraine.
Kim forged a strategic partnership with Russia in June, including a mutual assistance clause in case of aggression against either party. China would be alarmed if Russia intervened in any conflict on the Korean Peninsula under the terms of this agreement. Of course, such an eventuality is remote, for Pyongyang simply wants to get its hands on overseas currency, new military technologies and battlefield experience.
There is no true solidarity between the two, and Russia has its hands full in Ukraine already. China has been ineffectual in brokering peace deals for current Israel-related conflicts. Although China has leverage with Iran (which is a patron of Hamas and Hezbollah), it could do no more than have an “exchange of views on the Gaza conflict” when special envoy Zhai Jun visited Tehran. Beijing also hosted 14 Palestinian factions in July, urging them to form a unity government, even though groupings like Hamas and Fatah are sworn enemies. China paints itself as a neutral advocate, calling for a “just settlement” of the Palestinian issue.
Yet China plays the same disingenuous game with Ukraine. It pretends to be neutral, when in fact it is actively supporting Russia, and blaming Ukraine and the West for Putin’s violence. This simply reflects another of Beijing’s tactics – to use conflicts to rally global public opinion against the USA. In fact, as Xi looks on at the bun fight known as US elections, he may well feel justified in his belief that the East is rising and that the West is declining.
What about China’s perspective towards Moscow? According to the aforementioned RAND report: “The Russia-China partnership is critical for Beijing. China’s leaders have long argued that the United States is determined to encircle China and impede its growth as a great power. The United States’ alliance networks and its role as architect of the current international system (at the time of writing) are the most effective and useful tools for achieving this objective. With no alliances of its own, Beijing views Moscow’s mutual support as its most important strategic relationship and a counterweight to US power. As the de facto senior partner in the relationship, Beijing simultaneously sees a significant opportunity to exploit Russia’s weakness – an opportunity it has leveraged to gain access to inexpensive energy, advanced military technology and strategic resources.”
Marking their close ties, in early November a Russian Su-57 fighter jet arrived in Zhuhai to attend a biennial military exhibition. The trajectory of bilateral Sino-Russian military exercises suggests a possible desire for combined operations in the future. The RAND report noted: “Strategic cooperation and coordination in the overall military-to-military relationship suggests that expanded cooperation might eventually include some form of combined military operation, but this possibility remains uncertain at best under present circumstances.”
While they are incrementally improving their ability to operate together, a mutual defense treaty seems unlikely given their past histories and experiences. Instead of militarily challenging the USA outright, both China and Russia prefer methods such as intimidation, threat, hybrid warfare and gray-zone tactics.
Nevertheless, “Short of a mutual defence treaty, other forms of military cooperation should be expected to intensify,” the RAND authors concluded. “The two sides may seek to leverage greater political-diplomatic value from enhanced exchanges and joint exercises, at times including third parties, such as Iran or multinational organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Beijing could seek to enhance its claims to
Indeed, the two sides have already organized naval exercises in the East and South China seas for a number of years and, in 2016, Russian naval vessels transited the Senkakus in an action suspected of being organized in advance to give the Chinese an opportunity to sail through the islets to substantiate territorial claims.”
The “axis of evil” is very much a marriage of convenience. Members work together where interests align, but tensions abound because each has distinctive goals and perspectives. Regardless, China is bound to Russia in their antipathy towards the West. As the old proverb says, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” (ANI)
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