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Do bypoll wins have effect in General elections?

BJP leaders in Delhi admit that candidate selection and price rise have played an important role in the bypolls. Some also feel infighting at local units also worked against the party candidates….reports Asian Lite News

The Congress is on an overdrive since the bypoll results on Tuesday and is saying that the results are an indication of change which will be reflected in upcoming Assembly elections slated to be held early next year and it is due to this, the government has been compelled to reduce taxes on fuel.

P. Chidambaram, senior observer for Goa and former Finance Minister said, “In states where the Congress won, it did so with a significantly higher vote share. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress vs BJP was 48.9 per cent to 28 per cent. In Maharashtra, it was 57 per cent to 35 per cent, in Rajasthan, it was 37.51 per cent to 18.8 per cent. In states where the Congress lost to the BJP, the spread was narrow, e.g., in MP, the Congress’ vote share was 45.45 per cent and BJP’s vote share was 47.58 per cent. In Karnataka, where the two parties won one seat each, the vote share of the Congress was 44.76 per cent against BJP’s 51.86 per cent. There is a new wind behind the sails of the Congress. Will it gather strength and speed?” he added.

But going by the recent bypoll results after the UP assembly elections in 2017, two Lok Sabha seats were vacated — one by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in Gorakhpur and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya in Phulpur. In subsequent bypolls in 2018, both seats were won by Samajwadi Party. It registered victories in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls, supported by the BSP.

But a year later in the general elections of 2019, the situation was different and despite SP-BSP alliance, the BJP swept the polls.

In Bihar, the RJD won the Araria Lok Sabha seat and the assembly by-election in Jehanabad, but in 2019 general elections it could not even open its account in the Lok Sabha polls.

BJP leaders in Delhi admit that candidate selection and price rise have played an important role in the bypolls. Some also feel infighting at local units also worked against the party candidates.

Chidambaram said, Congress won eight seats, while non-BJP parties won 7 of which only one seat was won by a crypto ally of the BJP, namely YSR Congress. The other six seats were won by parties opposed to the BJP.

Results of the bypolls to three Lok Sabha seats and 29 Assembly constituencies, announced on Tuesday, have been encouraging for the Congress in the states of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka where the party is now better placed than the BJP.

ALSO READ: BJP’s win in NE bypolls may impact Cong prospects in Manipur

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Ticket distribution, price rise reasons for BJP’s bypoll defeats

In the Himachal Pradesh bypolls, the Bharatiya Janata Party lost all the three assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha seat to rival Congress…reports Asian Lite News

A day after the party’s poor performance in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP leaders in Delhi feel that candidate selection and price rise played an important role in the by-polls. Some also feel infighting in local units also worked against the BJP candidates.

In the Himachal Pradesh bypolls, the Bharatiya Janata Party lost all the three assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha seat to rival Congress. In Rajasthan, the saffron party lost both the assembly constituencies to the Congress, the party in power in the state.

A senior functionary said that denying tickets to the son of Gautam Lal Meena from Dhariyawad in Rajasthan and Chetan Bragta son of former minister of Himachal Pradesh Narendra Bragta is one of the reasons for losing one assembly seat each in Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh.

“The party denied tickets to the sons of Meena and Bragta saying it would promote nepotism. Chetan Bragta came second in Jubbal-Kotkhai assembly constituency and our candidate came third. BJP candidate Neelam Seraik got just 2644 votes and forfeited her deposit with a vote share of 4.67 per cent in Jubbal-Kotkhai. If we had given a ticket to Chetan, the result could have been different. Similarly, Meena’s son was also denied a ticket and we lost the seat to the Congress,” he said.

Talking about the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, a party functionary hinted that the party underestimated Congress candidate Pratibha Singh, the wife of late chief minister Virbhadra Singh, from Mandi. Another party leader pointed out that in Rajasthan the state unit is witnessing huge in-fighting between the supporters of former chief minister Vasundhara Raje and state president Satish Poonia.

“Along with the party decision to not promote nepotism, Gautam Lal Meena’s son Kanhaiya Meena was denied the ticket as his father was a well-known supporter of Raje which also worked against the party in the bypolls. Both the camps failed to put up a united front while the Congress despite also witnessing infighting put up a united front for the bypolls. The results show the united front shown by the Congress yielded favourable results,” he said.

A senior functionary claimed that price rise also worked against the party. “Whether we realise it or not price rise is an issue and the Congress party effectively convinced voters that the BJP-led Union government is responsible for it. Prices of everything have increased and this is hurting the common man and they showed their anger by voting against our candidate,” he said.

After the results, BJP Himachal Pradesh president Suresh Kumar Kashyap said that there were several reasons for their defeat and price rise was one of them.

“The Congress had made price rise and rising fuel prices an issue and I think that it may have worked in their favour. The BJP, however, will hold a detailed review of the results to find out the reasons for the defeat and correct the shortcomings while preparing for the next assembly polls,” Kashyap had said.

ALSO READ: Major reshuffle in Bengal BJP likely after festive season

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Chidambaram confident after by poll results

In the three Lok Sabha seats, the result shows that the BJP has won in Khandwa (Madhya Pradesh), Shiv Sena in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Congress in Mandi (Himachal Pradesh)…reports Asian Lite News.

 Buoyed by the bypoll results, Congress leader P. Chidambaram on Wednesday said that the electoral winds were now blowing against the BJP.

Taking to Twitter, he said: “Here is a thought provoking analysis of the results of by-elections in 30 Assembly constituencies, BJP won seven seats and its declared allies won eight seats.

“Congress won eight seats Non-BJP parties won 7 seats of which only one seat was won by a crypto ally of the BJP, namely YSR Congress. The other six seats were won by parties opposed to the BJP.

“The honours are even today. Which way will the wind blow in 2022?.”

Results of the bypolls to three Lok Sabha seats and 29 Assembly constituencies, announced on Tuesday, have been encouraging for the Congress in the states of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka where the party is now better placed than the BJP.

In the three Lok Sabha seats, the result shows that the BJP has won in Khandwa (Madhya Pradesh), Shiv Sena in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Congress in Mandi (Himachal Pradesh).

In Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Shiv Sena candidate and the widow of late Mohan Delkar, Kalavati Delkar won by more than 50,000 votes.

The Congress won all three Assembly constituencies of Arki, Fatehpur and Jubbal-Kotkhai of Himachal Pradesh.

It has also won both the seats of Vallabhnagar and Dhariyawad in Rajasthan.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress swept all four seats, while the BJP and allies have gained grounds in the northeast.

In three of the four Assembly constituencies in West Bengal, the security deposit of BJP candidates has been forfeited.

The security deposit of the BJP candidates in Gosaba, Khardha and Dinhata have been lost, raising a huge question mark on the party’s performance.

The JD(U) has won in both the seats of Bihar– Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur. The candidates of the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) and ally United Democratic Party (UDP) were leading in the Mawryngkneng, Rajabala and Mawphlang Assembly seats in Meghalaya.

In MP’s Khandwa Lok Sabha seat, the BJP has had an easy win. The party has also won Jobat, and was leading in Prithvipur but trailing in Raigon.

In Maharashtra, the lone seat that went for the bypoll has been bagged by the Congress. It has wrested Hanagal seat from BJP in Karnataka which is the home turf of the Chief Minister but the major setback has been for TRS which has lost Huzoorabad seat to the BJP.

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Amarinder may launch political party on Wednesday

The former Chief Minister also said he is hopeful of a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP for next year’s Assembly elections in the state…reports Asian Lite News

Former Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh may announce the launch of his own political party on Wednesday.

An indication in this regard came on Tuesday when his media advisor Raveen Thukral extended an invite to the media for Amarinder Singh’s press briefing in Chandigarh.

Formally saying goodbye to the Congress which made him the Chief Minister of Punjab twice and the state party president thrice, an ‘upset’ Amarinder Singh last week said that he would soon announce the launch of his own political party to serve the interests of the people, including the farmers who’ve been fighting for their rights for over a year now.

The former Chief Minister also said he is hopeful of a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP for next year’s Assembly elections in the state, if the farmers’ issues are resolved in their interest.

Without mincing words, Amarinder Singh added that he would not rest until he can secure the future of his people and his state.

“Punjab needs political stability and protection from internal and external threats. I promise my people that I will do what it takes to ensure peace and security, which is today at stake,” read an earlier tweet, quoting Amarinder Singh.

Since his resignation as the Chief Minister, Amarinder Singh has been targeting state Congress President Navjot Sidhu by publically saying that he would fight his possible elevation to the chief ministership tooth and nail, and is ready to make any sacrifice to save the country from such a ‘dangerous man’.

He has also claimed that the Gandhi siblings (Priyanka and Rahul) were “quite inexperienced” and “their advisors were clearly misguiding them”.

After months of infighting within the Congress, Chief Minister Amarinder Singh had submitted his resignation on September 18.

ALSO READ: Potshots between Congress, RJD intensify

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Potshots between Congress, RJD intensify

It clearly indicates that RJD has an undisclosed alliance with the BJP to form the government in Bihar. We have fought against the BJP but they (RJD) are compromising their ideology to come into power,” he added…reports Asian Lite News.

By-elections for the Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur Assembly seats may turn to be a cakewalk for Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal-United JD-U as the opposition RJD and Congress are more busy fighting each other.

Congress’ Bihar in-charge Bhakta Charan Das accused the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of having an “undisclosed pact” with the BJP in the by-election.

“Tejashwi Yadav, the son of Lalu Prasad, has taken away the right of Congress by fielding RJD candidates from both Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur. He has violated the coalition pact with us. We demanded one seat of Kusheshwar Asthan where we have strong ground support but he denied us,” he said.

“As he has not conceded one seat to the Congress, it means that he does not want the 19 seats of Congress to form the government. It clearly indicates that RJD has an undisclosed alliance with the BJP to form the government in Bihar. We have fought against the BJP but they (RJD) are compromising their ideology to come into power,” he added.

Hitting back, RJD Rajya Sabha member Manoj K. Jha accused Das of “not knowing the ground reality of Bihar”.

“Das is a drawing room politician who has no knowledge of the sacrifices of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi. He has made unacceptable comments against the RJD. He has given statement without being briefed by other leaders of the state,” he said.

“There were so many Chief Ministers of Congress in Bihar but no one had taken strong decisions like Lalu ji by arresting L.K. Advani (during his Ayodhya Rathyatra),” Jha added.

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Major reshuffle in Bengal BJP likely after festive season

Speculations are also rife that all the four state secretaries except Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato, who is from North Bengal, might be replaced…reports Asian Lite News.

Considering the crucial Municipal Corporation elections likely at the end of this year, the BJP in West Bengal might go through a major organisational reshuffle just after the festive season. Preference is likely to be given to youth and pro-RSS leaders.

There are strong indications that the party which is struggling to hold back its own members particularly in South Bengal is likely to give more importance to the leadership from North Bengal where the saffron brigade has performed better.

Sources in the party indicated that the high command is not at all happy with the present performance of the arty and so they are willing to bring in young leaders which might give a different look to the party and so leaders who are close to RSS like Debojit Sarkar, Dr Indranil Khan, Loknath Chattopadhyay and Debtanu Bhattacharya might get important positions in the state committee.

Speculations are also rife that all the four state secretaries except Jyotirmoy Singh Mahato, who is from North Bengal, might be replaced.

Highly placed sources in the party indicated that leaders like Tushar Ghosh, Debasree Chowdhury who have long association with RSS might come to the state committee.

The new state president of the BJP, Sukanta Majumdar will start extensive visits across districts after October 20, 2021. In the first round, he will conduct organisational meetings in 20 districts. Sources said that more than 50 per cent of district presidents will be changed.

Not only at the state level but the party is likely to make major changes in the district level too. There are 39 organisational districts which are headed by district presidents. Sources said that after the posts of the general secretaries, the posts of branch organisations of the party youth wing, peasants’ wing, women’s wing and minority wings, are extremely crucial. Sources said that the defunct district president will surely be replaced. And new faces from the young generation will be roped in there.

“All the changes will be as per the constitutional provisions. The new committee will be formed according to the advice of our central leadership. The final decision of the changes will be taken by the central leadership of the party only,” a senior party leader said.

As the corporation election is round the corner and so the party is concentrating on Howrah and Kolkata. The focus will be on Howrah and Kolkata, which are heading for municipal corporation elections. Sources said that the North Kolkata district president, Shibaji Sinharoy might be replaced by Sajal Ghosh and Indrajit Khatik might become the new south Kolkata district president.

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READ MORE-BJP’s sets up constituency management plan for MP

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BJP’s sets up constituency management plan for MP

The constituency management plan is part of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s preparations for the assembly polls…reports Shashi Bhushan

The BJP in Madhya Pradesh has implemented a ‘special constituency management plan’ for those assembly constituencies which the saffron party has frequently lost since 2013. There are around 35 such seats and the BJP has decided to pay special attention to these constituencies through its special management plan ahead of the next assembly election.

Party Madhya Pradesh in-charge P Murlidhar Rao told IANS that a special plan has been formulated for around 35 assembly constituencies in Madhya Pradesh which the BJP has frequently lost since 2013. “In other words, these seats are difficult ones and to win these 35 seats we have started a special constituency management plan,” Rao said.

Explaining the plan, Rao said that a separate team has been looking after party work to strengthen the organization in these constituencies. An in-charge has been appointed and workers have been identified to take the fight ahead.

The constituency management plan is part of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s preparations for the assembly polls. “We have started preparing for the next assembly polls in 2023 and the 2024 general elections. We are working on territorial expansion of the party and focusing on increasing the vote share to 51 per cent. In the 2008 assembly polls, the BJP had got a 38 per cent vote share. In the last assembly polls in 2018, our vote share increased to 41 percent and now we are targeting to get 51 percent in 2023,” Rao said.

From December, the BJP Madhya Pradesh unit is launching a ‘vistarak’ campaign in which over 20,000 workers of the party state unit will collectively work for two lakh hours among the people at the booth level for organizational expansion.

“Each vistarak will work to strengthen the party at ground level by spending 10 hours per day for 10 days. In total 20,000 vistaraks will together work for two lakh hours for the party,” Rao added.

The Madhya Pradesh assembly elections will be held in November-December 2023. Since 2003, the saffron party has been in power in the state, except for 15 months between December 2018 to March 2020 when Congress leader Kamal Nath was Chief Minister.

In March 2020, Shivraj Singh Chouhan was again sworn as chief minister after the fall of the Kamal Nath led Congress government.

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Eye on Nishad votes, Akhilesh meets Phoolan Devi’s mother

Besides promising all help to the family, he also assured that he would recommend a CBI inquiry into the Phoolan’s murder when his government is formed….reports Asian Lite News

Bandit queen turned politician, Phoolan Devi, is emerging as a one of a major poll issue in the upcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

While the Nishad Party has been bending backwards to claim Phoolan’s legacy and the Nishad votes, the Vikassheel Insaan Party of Bihar has announced that every Nishad home should have a Phoolan statue.

Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav on Wednesday evening met Phoolan’s mother, Moola Devi in Jalaun district and sought her blessings. This was the first time that he had met Phoolan’s family.

Akhilesh was on the first leg of his ‘Samajwadi Vijay Yatra’ when he took time off to meet Moola Devi who wished him success in the coming elections.

Besides promising all help to the family, he also assured that he would recommend a CBI inquiry into the Phoolan’s murder when his government is formed.

It may be recalled that it was Mulayam Singh Yadav who had withdrawn cases against Phoolan Devi in 1994 and later, ensured her entry into politics.

In 1996, Phoolan Devi became an MP from the Mirzapur Lok Sabha constituency in eastern Uttar Pradesh and was re-elected in 1999.

In 2001, she was shot dead outside her Delhi residence.

The former MP was popular among the Most Backward Castes (MBCs) in Mirzapur and other parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Phoolan Devi was born into the Nishad community in 1963 in the Ghura Ka Purwa village of Jalaun district.

The SP’s backward caste wing recently tried to install her statue in Raebareli but was not given permission.

The VIP leaders had also made similar attempts but were denied permission.

The move to eulogise Phoolan Devi is seen as an attempt to consolidate the votes of the Nishad community and set up Phoolan as an icon in the community.

Her life in the ravines is being touted as a result of oppression by upper caste and the Behmai massacre, in which she reportedly gunned down 20 Thakurs, was her way of avenging her humiliation by the Thakur community.

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42 regional parties received over Rs 676 cr through contributions

According to the report, there are 24 regional parties who declared a part of their income as remaining unspent for 2019-20 while 18 parties spent more than the income collected during that year…reports Asian Lite News.

A total of 42 regional parties collected Rs 676.326 cr or 77.03 per cent of their total income from voluntary contributions including donations, contributions and Electoral Bonds for the financial year 2019-20, according to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Rights (ADR).

Under the voluntary contributions, political parties collected 50.97 per cent or Rs 447.498 cr of their income from donations through Electoral Bonds while other donations and contributions amounted to Rs 228.828 cr or 26.06 per cent for the financial year 2019-20, said the report. However, the total income of the 42 regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 was Rs 877.957 cr.

The income of the top 5 parties with the highest total declared income including the TRS, Shiv Sena, YSR Congress, TDP and BJD amounted to Rs 516.482 cr, 58.83 per cent of the total income of the political parties analysed collectively in the report. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has reported the highest income of Rs 130.46 cr, 14.86 per cent of the total income of all the parties analysed, followed by the Shiv Sena with an income of Rs 111.403 cr, Yuvanjana Sramika Rythu (YSR) Congress Party with an income of Rs 92.739 cr, TDP with Rs 91.53 crore and BJD with Rs 90.35 crore. Altogether 42 regional parties garnered an income of Rs 877.95 crore while only 14 parties, including TRS, TDP, YSR Congress, JD(U) and RJD, got donations through Electoral Bonds.

Out of 39 parties from the 42 political parties whose data is available for both the financial years, 23 parties have shown an increase in their income from the financial year 2018-19 to the financial year 2019-20 while 16 parties have shown a decline in their income during this period. The AIADMK reported the highest increase in its income of Rs 61.506 cr followed by the DMK and the AAP which declared a total increase of Rs 38.557 cr and Rs 30.337 cr respectively, between FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, said the report.

According to the report, there are 24 regional parties who declared a part of their income as remaining unspent for 2019-20 while 18 parties spent more than the income collected during that year. “TDP, BJD, DMK, SP, JDS, AJSU, JVM-P, INLD, PMK, MGP, GFP, SDF, MNF, AIFB, NPF, JKPDP, IPFT and MPC are the 18 regional parties that declared spending more than their income. BJD has declared spending highest amount of Rs 95.78 cr or 106.01 per cent more than its income,” quotes the report.

The total declared expenditure of the 42 regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 was Rs 742.535 cr. The top 5 parties that have incurred the highest expenditure are the BJD which had spent Rs 186.13 cr or 25.07 per cent, followed by the TDP which spent Rs 108.84 cr or 14.66 per cent, SHS which spent Rs 98.379 cr or 13.25 per cent, DMK which spent Rs 71.038 cr or 9.57 per cent and SP which spent Rs 55.692 cr or 7.50 per cent of the total expenditure.

62% of income for 7 national parties came from donations

More than 62 per cent of the total income of seven national parties came from donations through Electoral Bonds amounting to Rs 2993.826 cr for the financial year 2019-20 with no identity disclosed to the public.

As per the data shared by the SBI in response to ADR’s RTI application, Electoral Bonds worth Rs 3429.5586 cr were redeemed by parties in the financial year 2019-20. Out of this, a total 87.29 per cent were received by four national parties — Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, All India Trinamool Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party, said the ADR report. The total amount of Electoral Bonds declared by the national and regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 so far is Rs 3441.324 cr. The difference in the amount declared by political parties and data on Electoral Bonds redeemed received from SBI could be due to the manner in which parties report in their audit report. For example: AAP declared donations from electoral bonds under the head “Others (Electoral Bonds/Electoral Trust),” added the report.

The most common and popular source of income for the national and regional political parties for FY 2019-20, according to the ADR report, are donations through Electoral Bonds which have emerged as the most popular channel of donations to parties in the last two years. The report says, “It is to be noted that the JMM party has declared the name of the donor who donated Rs 1 crore through Electoral Bonds in its contribution report for FY 2019-20, however, this income through electoral bonds has not been declared by the party in its audit report, FY 2019-20. This raises the question as to whether political parties are aware of the donor’s identity who made contributions via electoral bonds, as can be seen in this case.”

During the financial year 2019-20, out of the 42 regional parties, the JDS, SAD, JVM-P and LJP declared receiving a total income of Rs 14.884 cr from the sale of coupons. Of all regional parties that have submitted their audit reports, 14 parties namely the TRS, TDP, YSR-C, BJD, DMK, SHS, AAP, JDU, SP, JDS, SAD, AIADMK, RJD and JMM have declared receiving donations through Electoral Bonds worth Rs 447.498 cr, which is 50.97 per cent, says the ADR report.

The most common and popular items of expenditure for regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 are election expenses, general propaganda and administrative, general expenses. Janata Dal Secular (JDS) has declared membership fees and other fees under the grants, donations, contributions for the FY 2019-20, as per the report.

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Nitish puts caste-based Census in cold storage until bypolls

“Let the by-elections get over first, then only we will discuss this subject (caste-based Census). Till then, leave it,” Kumar said…reports Asian Lite News.

The stand of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar against the BJP over caste-based Census seems to have softened a bit in view of the upcoming by-elections in the state.

By-elections to Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan Assembly segments will be held on October 30. The counting will take place on November 2.

Nitish Kumar was challenging the BJP a week ago, claiming that caste-based Census is his priority. However, when the media asked about his stand on the issue now after the ‘Janta Darbar’ on Monday, the Chief Minister said that the matter would be taken up after bypolls.

“Let the by-elections get over first, then only we will discuss this subject (caste-based Census). Till then, leave it,” Kumar said.

The JD(U) is contesting in both Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan with outside support from the BJP. As a result, the ruling party cannot afford to lose the supporters of the BJP and RSS, which might be a reason for Nitish Kumar’s latest stand on the issue.

“We will call all the parties next month for a meeting wherein we will discuss this issue (caste-based Census). Whatever decision we take in this matter will be in the interest of all the parties,” Nitish Kumar said.

The Centre recently filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court wherein it refused to conduct caste-based Census in the country.

Last month, Nitish said that the caste census is necessary but the decision has to be taken by the Central government.

“The earlier caste-based census was conducted 90 years ago in 1931 during the British period and we have been following the same since then. This is not right. We should have to conduct a fresh caste census,” said Nitish Kumar, who returned in the afternoon after meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with 10 leaders of different political parties, on Monday to the demand.

“The Prime Minister listened to each and every delegation member on Monday. All political parties have one view to conduct caste based census in the country. I am hopeful that the Prime Minister will consider our point of view,” he said.

The Bihar government had written to the Prime Minister on August 4, requesting him to give time so that an all-party delegation can meet him and put their point of view on this issue, a day after Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav suggested this course to Nitish Kumar.

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