President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Nurgozhoevich Zhaparov insisted that the Afghan problem should remain at the centre of CSTO attention and analysis…writes Ateet Sharm
While the world focuses on the situation in Ukraine, Central Asian countries are facing a double whammy, getting increasingly worried about not just the Eastern European region but also the threats emanating from Afghan territory on their southern borders.
Led by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the heads of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member states had a lot on their plates when they met at the Kremlin in Moscow on Monday.
Ukraine, NATO, the Caucasus and Afghanistan – the military alliance of former Soviet states in Eurasia agreed that the situation along the entire perimeter of the borders of the CSTO member states remains tense.
Agreeing that the current international environment does not inspire optimism, both in terms of global security and the global economy, the leaders – which included Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan besides Putin – were unanimous in the view that Afghanistan remains “a serious destabilising factor” in the Central Asian region.
They agreed that after the return of Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan remains a hotbed of international Islamist terrorism, drug trafficking and illegal migration with things becoming more acute as the socio-economic situation in the country deteriorates.
“We attach great importance to the development of the situation in Afghanistan. The unstable situation in this country, as well as the unrelenting activity of armed groups on the territory of Afghanistan, continue to threaten the security and stability of our states. I believe that the CSTO must take into account all potential threats and pay even more attention to ensuring the security of the southern borders of Central Asia,” said Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev.
President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Nurgozhoevich Zhaparov insisted that the Afghan problem should remain at the centre of CSTO attention and analysis.
“The situation on the southern borders of the CSTO remains very alarming, primarily due to the unimpeded activities of radical religious-terrorist structures in some Afghan provinces, whose external sponsors have their own far-reaching plans for Central Asia,” said Zhaparov.
He stressed that it is necessary to implement the entire range of political-diplomatic and military-technical security measures while, at the same time, it is important to provide humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, “among whom there are our relatives”.
Tajikistan, which due to its geographical location – shares a 1344 km long border with Afghanistan – remains at the forefront of countering current threats and challenges once again highlighted the export of extremism and an increase in drug trafficking after the Taliban takeover.
President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, who has in the past spoken about terror sleeper cells getting active on its southern borders after Taliban’s return, stressed on the urgency to step up joint efforts to strengthen the potential and capabilities of CSTO to counter the multiple growth of challenges and threats to security of member states.
“We see that over the past four decades, negative factors have been accumulating that have contributed to the deterioration of the military-political and socio-economic situation in this country (Afghanistan). In this regard, the CSTO needs to be ready for various scenarios for the development of the situation on the southern borders,” said Rahmon.
The CSTO members had held a series of large-scale military exercises on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border to counter the Taliban threat last year, the practice of which, revealed Russian President Vladimir Putin, would expand with a whole series of joint exercises planned for this fall in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
CSTO
The measures, said Putin, will serve to increase the combat readiness and the level of coordination of the military structures of member states.
“We will also deal with the issues of equipping the CSTO Collective Forces with modern weapons and equipment, increasing the operational compatibility of their military contingents, and improving the coherence of the joint actions of our military structures and special services,” the Russian President assured all the leaders.
Putin also reaffirmed that Russia will continue to contribute to the deepening of strategic alliance relations with all CSTO member states.
The leaders, as they celebrated the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Collective Security Treaty and the 20th anniversary of the creation of the CSTO, underscored that the organisation remains a solid system of collective security which was built in the vast expanse of Eurasia.
(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)
The Prime Minister stressed the region’s security and prosperity can be guaranteed only if India and Central Asian countries firmly bond. Modi wanted to “make it clear that mutual cooperation between India and Central Asia is essential for regional security and prosperity”, reports Asian Lite News
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday proposed elevating ties with Central Asia to an unprecedented new level, guided by an “ambitious vision” shared by India and the five post-Soviet Republics.
“Our cooperation has achieved many successes over the past three decades. And now, at this crucial juncture, let us define an ambitious vision for the coming years as well,” PM Modi said in the first India-Central Asia summit held in a virtual format.
The Prime Minister stressed the region’s security and prosperity can be guaranteed only if India and Central Asian countries firmly bond. PM Modi wanted to “make it clear that mutual cooperation between India and Central Asia is essential for regional security and prosperity”.
He pointed out that “Central Asia is central to India’s vision of an integrated and stable extended neighbourhood”. Central Asia and West Asia are the key pillars defining India’s doctrine of engaging its “extended neighbourhood”.
PM Modi recalls 30 yrs of India, Central Asia ties, pointing how India has good bilateral ties with all the 5 countries of the region. https://t.co/s2ZehLtf1C
Second, the Prime Minister made it plain that the next phase of ties can be anchored only if the New Delhi-Central Asia relationship is firmly institutionalised at all levels drawing many layers of stakeholders. “The second objective is to give an effective structure to our cooperation. This will establish a framework of regular interactions at different levels and among various stakeholders.
The Prime Minister said that the third objective of the summit was “to create an ambitious roadmap for our cooperation”.
Referring to the centrality of regional security, the Prime Minister, especially cited the common concern shared by India and Central Asia to defuse turbulence in Afghanistan. “We are all concerned about the developments in Afghanistan. In this context also our mutual cooperation has become more important for regional security and stability”, PM Modi said.
Analysts point out that the Prime Minister’s initiative to deepen structural linkages with Central Asia has at least four major objectives. First, the new initiative seeks to revive the natural historical and civilizational ties between India and the region in the digital age. Second, as India’s engagement—from culture, economy, energy and military—deepens, it will serve as an antidote to the region’s critical reliance on China, and the temptation to embrace Turkey, which is wooing these countries on account of their Turkic cultural roots. India shares this perception with Russia, whose President, Vladimir Putin was in New Delhi last month. Third, India sees secular Central Asian countries as bulwarks to reverse the tide of fundamentalism and extremism radiating from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Fourth, Central Asia is rich in natural resources—an element that can be fused in India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat vision.
The Prime Minister spotlighted that India has deep relations with all of the Central Asian countries. He cited Kazakhstan, which had emerged unscathed of a serious bout of internal instability, as an important partner in India’s energy security.
Looking ahead, PM Modi said that the summit will also focus on trade, connectivity, development partnership, culture, and people-to-people ties. India is keen that landlocked Central Asia sees the Iranian port of Chabahar as the natural gateway to the Indian Ocean, instead of over-relying on the Pakistani ports of Karachi and the Gwadar in the conduct of its seaborne international trade.
Noting that further development of mutual connectivity is essential for enhanced trade and commerce, India and Central Asian countries on Thursday agreed that connectivity initiatives should be based on the principles of transparency and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.
At the first India-Central Asia Summit, the leaders of participating countries welcomed the proposal of India to establish a joint working group on Chabahar Port to address issues of free movements of goods and services between India and Central Asian countries. The Indian side welcomed the interest of Central Asian countries to utilize the services of Shahid Beheshti Terminal at Chabahar Port for facilitating their trade with India and other external markets.
The sides supported India’s proposal to include the Chabahar Port and noted Turkmenistan’s proposal to include the Turkmenbashi Port within the framework of INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor).
The Delhi Declaration adopted at the summit held virtually said the leaders agreed to continue engagement for further developing the transit and transport potential of their countries, improving the logistics network of the region and promoting joint initiatives to create regional and international transport corridors.
They also noted the need for continued large-scale and long-term economic cooperation between Central Asian countries and India in order to strengthen and expand inter-connectivity. In this context, the President of Turkmenistan stressed the importance of TAPI gas pipeline project.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the virtual summit which was attended by Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
The summit coincided with the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Central Asian countries.
The leaders noted that the current level of trade and investments between India and Central Asian countries is far from realizing its true potential and stressed the importance of making concerted efforts to boost trade and investment in various sectors like medicine, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, education and information technology.
They welcomed the development of direct contacts between the states of India and the regions of Central Asian countries, including through the establishment of partnership arrangements between them.
The leaders directed their respective ministers to prepare a roadmap for enhancing mutual trade volume and industrial cooperation between India and the Central Asian countries.
India has several millennia old historical, cultural and civilizational links with Central Asia. India considers this region as a part of its ‘’extended neighbourhood’’, writes Ashok Sajjanhar
The first India-Central Asia Summit will take place in a virtual format on January 27. India is the only country to host such a Summit with Central Asia. It is a path-breaking initiative with potential to significantly enhance the vibrant partnership that India enjoys with the five Central Asian states. The virtual format was adopted as Plan-B as it was no longer possible to host a face-to-face summit with the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, who were to be the joint chief guests during the January 26 Republic Day celebrations.
However, the rapid spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus proved to be a formidable obstacle in the realisation of this plan. The Indian government needs to be warmly complimented that it is going ahead with this initiative to organise a virtual Summit rather than jettison the idea.
India-Central Asia Relations
The salience of Central Asian countries has grown significantly, for India and the world, after the coercive seizure of power by the Taliban in Kabul on August 15 last year. It is a measure of the distrust that the whole world harbours that even after more than five months of the forcible capture of authority by the Taliban, not a single country has conferred diplomatic recognition on it. In addition to the demand for an inclusive government in Afghanistan and protection of human rights of minorities including the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Shias, Hindus, Sikhs, women and girls, the global community has been demanding that the Afghan territory should not be used for launching terror attacks against its neighbours and others farther away.
India’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar with Kyrgystan counterpart Ruslan Kazakbayev
India and Central Asian states share similar concerns about the imperatives of peace and stability in Afghanistan. This was demonstrated by the presence of the Secretaries of the National Security Councils of all these countries, along with their counterparts from Russia and Iran, at the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue hosted by India on November 10. In addition, foreign ministers of all the five Central Asian states travelled to India to participate in the Third India-Central Asia Dialogue soon thereafter on 19-20 December, while sending their deputies to the OIC foreign ministers meeting organised by Pakistan the same day. These back-to-back deliberations in New Delhi have placed India strongly back at the centre-stage of negotiations on peace and stability in Afghanistan.
The recent violence and instability in Kazakhstan has given rise to additional anxieties about the activities of Islamic terrorist groups and others in the region. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev mentioned the presence of ‘’Islamic terrorists’’ as well as militants from Central Asia, Afghanistan, Middle East (who spoke a foreign language, probably Arabic) when addressing the people of Kazakhstan on the bloodshed in the country in the first week of this year. This preliminary information is a cause for deep worry for Central Asia and neighbouring countries including India, Russia, Iran and others.
India and Central Asia are celebrating 30 years of establishment of diplomatic relations. India was one of the first countries to accord diplomatic recognition to these countries on the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Summit would be an appropriate occasion to discuss the progress that the countries have made over the last 30 years in taking our partnership forward and further steps necessary to infuse the ties with greater dynamism.
Defence and Security
Security and defence partnership in the context of the evolving situation in Afghanistan and fight against Islamic terrorism, fundamentalism and radicalization would be key issues for discussion at the Summit. As is evident from the consensus documents adopted at the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue and the Third India-Central Asia Dialogue, there is considerable similarity of views between India and Central Asian states on all these themes. There are however several nuances which need to be taken cognizance of. Four of the five Central Asian countries (barring Tajikistan) are keen to engage economically and politically with the Taliban dispensation, both because of the economic benefits that accrue to them as also because they feel that this is the best way to ensure peace and security on their borders and in their countries. Ministers and senior officials of these countries have been visiting Kabul and vice-versa to maintain contact and advance commercial and economic partnership.
It would therefore be useful to set up a formal Defence Dialogue Forum at the level of the National Security Advisers of all countries which would meet regularly to exchange views on the evolving situation in Afghanistan and in the region. India has considerable experience in confronting Islamic radicalism and terrorism and the Central Asian states could benefit from sharing these insights. It is also essential that the countries share intelligence about terror activities and networks on a real time basis so that they can protect themselves from any planned terror attacks.
India has considerable cooperation with most of these countries in the defence and military arena. Time has come to expand our collaboration from the traditional areas of training, joint exercises etc. to supply, upgradation, servicing of military equipment. It will be necessary to take this initiative forward with Russia which is deeply invested in security as well as economic engagement with Central Asia. The issue of India-Russia collaboration in Central Asia was discussed during the recent Summit between PM Modi and President Putin in New Delhi on 6th December, 2021. Some documents on the subject have also been exchanged between the two sides.
India has taken fresh initiatives recently in export of military hardware and has met with some significant successes. Since the Central Asian countries are following a multi-vector foreign policy and most of their equipment is of Soviet/Russian origin, Indian military hardware would be compatible with the systems they currently deploy and there could be considerable interest in sourcing their requirements from India. In the initial stages it would be necessary for India to provide suitable Lines of Credit to these countries as has been done for Vietnam and some others.
Connectivity
Lack of Connectivity is the single biggest obstacle in taking the relationship to its optimum level. India and Central Asia are handicapped because they don’t share a land border. In addition, Pakistan which falls between them does not permit passenger or cargo traffic to be transported over its territory. Pakistan has resisted even humanitarian aid of wheat and medicines to the people of Afghanistan to be carried over its land. All the Central Asian states are land-locked countries. Uzbekistan is doubly land-locked. In recent years, Uzbekistan has made proactive moves to create infrastructure which would enable it to access the Arabian Sea. India started on the journey a few years ago to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia via Chabahar and by acceding to the Ashgabat Agreement in 2018.
Considerable progress has been achieved in operationalizing the Shahid Beheshti Port of Chabahar but more needs to be done. India needs to take this up as a strategic project. India, Iran and Uzbekistan are engaged in a trilateral dialogue to improve the existing infrastructure and promote utilisation of Chabahar. Incorporation of Chabahar in the International North-South Transport Corridor, which has been agreed to by all the Central Asian countries, would further enhance the operations at the port. Construction of the railway link a few years ago between Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran would also contribute to streamlining the linkage between India and Central Asia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Central Asian Countries, in New Delhi
Uzbekistan has been actively promoting the construction of a railway link from Termez to Hairatan to Kabul to Peshawar to connect with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is an ambitious US$ 5 billion project. Its security and sustainability would significantly depend on the Taliban. We need to impress upon Uzbekistan that the project would be economically viable only if cargo is allowed to travel to India, Bangladesh, Nepal etc. and not stop at Peshawar in Pakistan.
Central Asia is well endowed with hydrocarbons and has extensive supplies of oil, coal, gas, uranium and also hydropower. Barring uranium, which India imports in significant quantities from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, India is not able to take advantage of the mineral resources of Central Asia due to lack of direct connectivity. Leaders of India and Central Asia need to put their heads together to devise some creative solution to overcome this impediment.
Commercial and Economic Cooperation
Economic collaboration is an area where Indian-Central Asian partnership has fallen woefully short of potential. It is imperative that the Indian private sector is encouraged to focus on the Central Asian market, both for trade as well as for investment. Information Technology, pharmaceuticals, health, infrastructure, telecom, agriculture, energy, textiles, medical tourism; pilgrimage, historical and cultural tourism; education; gems & jewellery etc. are areas where good possibilities exist for cooperation. Indian large and medium corporate houses should try to establish joint ventures in the above fields. They should also try to participate in tenders to get contracts for projects that are being undertaken on a regular basis in these countries with funding from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, EBRD, IDB etc.
India has offered a Line of Credit of US$ 1 billion to Central Asia for promoting bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The India Central Asia Business Council has also been established recently to promote this engagement. These initiatives are in addition to decisions taken at bilateral level to promote partnership with these countries. India’s private sector will have to play an important role in expeditious implementation of these arrangements.
Conclusion
India has several millennia old historical, cultural and civilizational links with Central Asia. India considers this region as a part of its ‘’extended neighbourhood’’. The strategic, political, security and economic significance of this region was underscored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to these five republics in July, 2015. He is the only Indian Prime Minister to have visited all the five States.
Immense potential exists to deepen cooperation between India and Central Asia in trade and investment, defence and security, energy, Information and Communications Technology, pharmaceuticals, capacity building, agriculture, innovation, education, culture, tourism, space, mining, joint ventures etc. Private businesses, small and medium enterprises, start-ups etc. need to actively contribute in this endeavour.
India enjoys immense good will in Central Asia. The forthcoming Summit will be a huge stride in realising the full potential of this partnership.
(Amb. Ashok Sajjanhar, is a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He is an Executive Council Member at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis and President, Institute of Global Studies. Views expressed are personal.) (The content is carried under a special arrangement with India Narrative)
The five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – are of immense strategic significance for India, and the invitation to all countries together, could not have come at a more opportune time, writes Lt Gen (Dr.) Subrata Saha
On its 73rd Republic Day on 26 Jan 2022, India has invited the Heads of State of the five Central Asian Republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as Chief Guests.
The five Central Asian countries are of immense strategic significance for India, and the invitation to all countries together, could not have come at a more opportune time. It is the 30th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Central Asian countries. Moreover, with the evolving security scenario post US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and China’s Belt & Road Initiative, the international equations in the region are becoming more dynamic.
In his speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on 17 September 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had dwelt on how Central Asia had been a bridge between various regional markets at different points in history. He said India was committed to increasing its connectivity with land-locked Central Asia in the 21st Century.
The commitment to build a comprehensive and enduring India-Central Asia partnership, was reaffirmed at the recently concluded 3rd meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue in New Delhi on 19 December 2021, hosted by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and attended by the Foreign Ministers of all the five countries. Earlier on 10 November 2021, the National Security Advisors of the five countries (alongside Iranian and Russian counterparts) had met in Delhi for the 3rd Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan chaired by NSA Ajit Doval to draft a common approach to combat terrorism and drug trafficking from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
India’s 2012 “Connect Central Asia” policy, which had a broad-based approach with political, security, economic, and cultural connections as its cornerstones, is finally gaining momentum.
The Central Asian Region lies at the crossroads of Russia, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Far East. This region between Pamir mountains and Aral Sea is energy resource rich. With the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the five Central Asian countries gained independence. The countries of the region adjoin the two most dynamic geostrategic nations – Afghanistan and China. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan share 1350 km, 744 km, and 150 km border respectively with Afghanistan. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan share 1700 km, 1063 km, and 477 km borders with China respectively.
Central Asia is vital for global energy security. According to the energy giant BP’s ‘Statistical Review of World Energy 2021’, Kazakhstan’s proven oil reserves stand at 5.4 thousand billion barrels (1.7% of global reserves) while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s oil reserves stand at 0.5 and 0.6 thousand billion barrels. Kazakhstan’s oil production stands at 86.1 million tonnes in 2021, while the comparative figure for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is 10.3 and 2.1 million tonnes.
The reserve of natural gas in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan is pegged at 1.8, 1.7, and 0.9 trillion cubic metres respectively, accounting for 7.2%, 1.2% and 0.4% of world’s total reserves. Natural gas production of the three countries stands at 59, 31.7 and 47.1 billion cubic metres respectively.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Central Asian Countries, in New Delhi (PIB)
Central Asia is also richly endowed with uranium deposits. As per World Nuclear Association report 2020 and IAEA data, Kazakhstan has world’s second largest Uranium reserves at 15%, after Australia’s 28%. CAR countries emerged as the largest producer of uranium from mines – 41% of world supply, followed by Australia at 13% and Canada at 8%. Uzbekistan also has significant uranium deposits.
Ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has been actively trying to maintain its influence in the region, against challenges from the US and China. In the 1990s, Russia used to be Central Asia’s main trading partner, accounting for 80 percent of the region’s trade. However, that situation has since changed. By 2016, while Russia’s bilateral trade volume with the region amounted to $18.6 billion, China’s bilateral trade grew to US$ 30 billion. With the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is entrenching deeper and expanding wider.
United States too is sharpening its focus on Central Asia. The US State Department’s official Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025 unambiguously states, “Central Asia is a geostrategic region important to United States national security interests, regardless of the level of United States involvement in Afghanistan…Close relations and cooperation with all five countries will promote U.S. values and provide a counterbalance to the influence of regional neighbours”. In fact, it is crucial for the US to develop robust relations with Central Asian countries, not only to be able to exercise influence in the region, but also in Afghanistan.
Driven by the common purpose of keeping the US at bay, Putin and Xi Jinping seemingly cooperate in Central Asia, in a marriage of convenience. While Moscow is striving for military and political influence, China is dominating the economics of the region.
India’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar with Kyrgystan counterpart Ruslan Kazakbayev
China’s engagements with the five Central Asian states have witnessed impressive growth over the last two decades. The first wave of Chinese investment, between 2007 and 2013, focused mainly on hydrocarbon extraction, processing, and transportation. Over time, Beijing has enlarged its investments in Central Asia to include agriculture, construction, chemical engineering, textile, and infrastructure. From 2015 to 2019, export of goods from Central Asia countries to China grew by 35 percent, with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan reporting growth of over 50 percent. In 2019, China was the largest trading partner to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan by imports, and Turkmenistan’s largest trading partner by exports, China’s biggest supplier of Natural Gas.
Even though China is trying to give shape to its engagement with the five Central Asian countries through a new China-led grouping called “China + Central Asia” (C+C5), not all is hunky-dory in the China-CAR equation. According to Central Asia Barometer, a Kyrgyzstan based non-profit research institute which monitors developments in Central Asia, the people are becoming ever more uncomfortable with Chinese presence in the region. In Kazakhstan, once most enthusiastic about partnership with China, there were large-scale protests when the Kazakh government was about to lease out large swathes of land to China for agricultural purposes.
In neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, failure of the Bishkek thermal power plant renovated by China, exposed Chinese corruption, resulting in arrest and trial of Kyrgyzstan’s then PM Sapar Isakov. A 2020 study by the Central Asia Barometer indicates that only 7 and 9 percent of the population in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan respectively, expressed “strong support” for Chinese energy and infrastructure projects.
Against this backdrop, CAR assumes strategic significance for India, both from the point of view of geopolitics and economics. With the volatility and uncertainty over Afghanistan, and China’s Belt and Road initiative, the region’s relevance in the global geopolitical landscape has increased. In addition to the US, Russia, and China, even Pakistan is trying to gain ground as it struggles to cope with a more assertive Taliban in Afghanistan.
India’s engagement with the region reached its first milestone when Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 1993, followed by Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1995. Relationship with Tajikistan was particularly significant then, as India extended logistics and material support to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, via Tajikistan. In 2002, India and Tajikistan signed a bilateral defence agreement, under which India refurbished the abandoned Soviet era airbase at Ayni. In 2004, India acquired six Ilyushin-78 in-flight refuelling aircrafts from Uzbekistan. In 2011, India conducted its first ever joint military exercise with Kyrgyzstan.
PM Modi’s visit to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan in 2015, infused fresh energy into the relations. In 2016 the President of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan visited India, followed by the President of India’s visit to Tajikistan in 2018.
Central Asian countries, with abundant reserves of hydrocarbon fuels and minerals, are vitally important for enlarging and diversifying India’s energy sourcing. India’s energy consumption has more than doubled since 2000. It is at present the fourth-largest global energy consumer in the wake of China, United States, and European Union. As per International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, India’s energy demand will increase more than that of any other country over the next two decades, and India will overtake the European Union as the world’s third-largest energy consumer by 2030.
As per latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, India’s total trade balance with the Central Asian countries is approximately US$ 77 million, with total exports to the region at US$ 360 million, and total imports from the region at US$ 283 million. There is plenty of potential for enhancing trade in IT, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, textiles, gems & jewellery. Health care and tourism can be further popularised. Central Asian countries must be invited to participate in various investment summits and trade shows at the national and state level. The India-Central Asia Business Council, on its part, must boost its scope, scale, and speed in reaching out to various state governments, encouraging both B2B bilateral and direct contact between state governments and Central Asian countries.
The CAR countries and India have a common understanding and recognise the threats of cross-border terrorism, terrorist proxies, terror financing, arms and drugs trafficking, radicalism, cyber abuse. India’s decades of experience in counter insurgency and counter terrorism can be utilised to promote military to military cooperation. India now has defence attaché in all the five countries, whose services can be well utilised for this purpose. India’s military to military outreach with Central Asian Countries started in 2011 with Exercise Khanjar with Kyrgyzstan. This has been stepped up in recent times with Exercise Prabal Dostyk and Exercise Kazind with Kazakhstan initiated in 2016 and 2019 respectively; and Exercise Dustlik with Uzbekistan initiated in 2019. In March 2021, Paratroopers from Turkmenistan were trained in ‘Combat Free Fall’ by the Indian Army.
India and the CAR countries can mutually contribute to capacity building and human resource development. Cooperation between specialised national institutions in finance, renewable energy, information, digital and other advanced technologies is being welcomed by CAR countries. Mutual development of language skills will certainly help overcome the language gap.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the President of Kyrgyz Republic Sooronbay Jeenbekov in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic (PIB)
Geographical connectivity has been ‘the challenge’ primarily because of Pakistan’s intransigence, and the instability in Afghanistan. For instance, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline has been in a limbo for long; Hurdles must be overcome in the Ashgabat Transit Agreement 2018 signed between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, India, Pakistan, and Oman; and International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) needs to be given a fillip. The broad consensus on utilising the Chabahar port facilities to improve connectivity with Central Asian countries needs to be actualised at the earliest.
Free from inherent problems associated with proximity, India has the opportunity to drive its relationship with the Central Asian countries by taking a strategic view. While the conjugality of convenience in Central Asia between China and Russia plays out against the US, India has the unique advantage of balance in its relationship with Russia and USA, as well as being a Member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. India’s role as a responsible power in Afghanistan is well recognised now. The presence of the five Central Asian Heads of States on India’s 73rd Republic Day should herald a robust future of this strategic relationship.
(The author is former Deputy Chief of Army Staff and Kashmir Corps Commander, and Member, National Security Advisory Board) (The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)
