Iraqi PM calls for dialogue after surviving assassination attempt
The assassination attempt came amid protests by followers of political parties rejecting last month’s election results…reports Asian Lite News
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on Sunday criticized an assassination attempt carried out by a drone targeting his official residence and called for a calm dialogue among all Iraqis for the future of the country.
Al-Kadhimi confirmed in a video posted on his official Twitter page that he and other workers at his residence are safe, stressing that “cowardly missiles and cowardly drones do not build a homeland or a future (for the country), and we are working to build our homeland by respecting the state and its institutions and creating a better future for all Iraqis”, reports Xinhua news agency.
Iraqi PM calls for dialogue after surviving assassination attempt
“I call on all parties to resort to calm dialogue to build Iraq and its future,” al-Kadhimi said in his speech, which was also aired by the official Iraqiya channel.
At dawn, al-Kadhimi escaped unhurt an assassination attempt by a booby-trapped drone that landed on his residence in the heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses some of the main offices of the Iraqi government and foreign embassies.
The assassination attempt came amid protests by followers of political parties rejecting last month’s election results.
On November 5, the protests developed to a clash with the security forces at the entrances of the Green Zone, which led to the killing of two protesters and the wounding of dozens of security members and protesters.
In the parliamentary elections on October 10, the Sadrist Movement, led by prominent Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, took the lead with more than 70 seats, while the al-Fatah (Conquest) Coalition garnered 17 seats compared with 47 in the 2018 elections.
Political parties unsatisfied with the results said the elections were manipulated and that they would not accept the “fabricated results”.
Followers of the political parties rejecting the election results took to the streets in many cities, including the capital Baghdad, when the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission is still considering the appeals and complaints submitted by the political parties.
It clearly indicates that RJD has an undisclosed alliance with the BJP to form the government in Bihar. We have fought against the BJP but they (RJD) are compromising their ideology to come into power,” he added…reports Asian Lite News.
By-elections for the Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur Assembly seats may turn to be a cakewalk for Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal-United JD-U as the opposition RJD and Congress are more busy fighting each other.
Congress’ Bihar in-charge Bhakta Charan Das accused the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of having an “undisclosed pact” with the BJP in the by-election.
“Tejashwi Yadav, the son of Lalu Prasad, has taken away the right of Congress by fielding RJD candidates from both Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur. He has violated the coalition pact with us. We demanded one seat of Kusheshwar Asthan where we have strong ground support but he denied us,” he said.
“As he has not conceded one seat to the Congress, it means that he does not want the 19 seats of Congress to form the government. It clearly indicates that RJD has an undisclosed alliance with the BJP to form the government in Bihar. We have fought against the BJP but they (RJD) are compromising their ideology to come into power,” he added.
Hitting back, RJD Rajya Sabha member Manoj K. Jha accused Das of “not knowing the ground reality of Bihar”.
“Das is a drawing room politician who has no knowledge of the sacrifices of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi. He has made unacceptable comments against the RJD. He has given statement without being briefed by other leaders of the state,” he said.
“There were so many Chief Ministers of Congress in Bihar but no one had taken strong decisions like Lalu ji by arresting L.K. Advani (during his Ayodhya Rathyatra),” Jha added.
According to the report, there are 24 regional parties who declared a part of their income as remaining unspent for 2019-20 while 18 parties spent more than the income collected during that year…reports Asian Lite News.
A total of 42 regional parties collected Rs 676.326 cr or 77.03 per cent of their total income from voluntary contributions including donations, contributions and Electoral Bonds for the financial year 2019-20, according to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Rights (ADR).
Under the voluntary contributions, political parties collected 50.97 per cent or Rs 447.498 cr of their income from donations through Electoral Bonds while other donations and contributions amounted to Rs 228.828 cr or 26.06 per cent for the financial year 2019-20, said the report. However, the total income of the 42 regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 was Rs 877.957 cr.
The income of the top 5 parties with the highest total declared income including the TRS, Shiv Sena, YSR Congress, TDP and BJD amounted to Rs 516.482 cr, 58.83 per cent of the total income of the political parties analysed collectively in the report. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has reported the highest income of Rs 130.46 cr, 14.86 per cent of the total income of all the parties analysed, followed by the Shiv Sena with an income of Rs 111.403 cr, Yuvanjana Sramika Rythu (YSR) Congress Party with an income of Rs 92.739 cr, TDP with Rs 91.53 crore and BJD with Rs 90.35 crore. Altogether 42 regional parties garnered an income of Rs 877.95 crore while only 14 parties, including TRS, TDP, YSR Congress, JD(U) and RJD, got donations through Electoral Bonds.
Out of 39 parties from the 42 political parties whose data is available for both the financial years, 23 parties have shown an increase in their income from the financial year 2018-19 to the financial year 2019-20 while 16 parties have shown a decline in their income during this period. The AIADMK reported the highest increase in its income of Rs 61.506 cr followed by the DMK and the AAP which declared a total increase of Rs 38.557 cr and Rs 30.337 cr respectively, between FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20, said the report.
According to the report, there are 24 regional parties who declared a part of their income as remaining unspent for 2019-20 while 18 parties spent more than the income collected during that year. “TDP, BJD, DMK, SP, JDS, AJSU, JVM-P, INLD, PMK, MGP, GFP, SDF, MNF, AIFB, NPF, JKPDP, IPFT and MPC are the 18 regional parties that declared spending more than their income. BJD has declared spending highest amount of Rs 95.78 cr or 106.01 per cent more than its income,” quotes the report.
The total declared expenditure of the 42 regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 was Rs 742.535 cr. The top 5 parties that have incurred the highest expenditure are the BJD which had spent Rs 186.13 cr or 25.07 per cent, followed by the TDP which spent Rs 108.84 cr or 14.66 per cent, SHS which spent Rs 98.379 cr or 13.25 per cent, DMK which spent Rs 71.038 cr or 9.57 per cent and SP which spent Rs 55.692 cr or 7.50 per cent of the total expenditure.
62% of income for 7 national parties came from donations
More than 62 per cent of the total income of seven national parties came from donations through Electoral Bonds amounting to Rs 2993.826 cr for the financial year 2019-20 with no identity disclosed to the public.
As per the data shared by the SBI in response to ADR’s RTI application, Electoral Bonds worth Rs 3429.5586 cr were redeemed by parties in the financial year 2019-20. Out of this, a total 87.29 per cent were received by four national parties — Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, All India Trinamool Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party, said the ADR report. The total amount of Electoral Bonds declared by the national and regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 so far is Rs 3441.324 cr. The difference in the amount declared by political parties and data on Electoral Bonds redeemed received from SBI could be due to the manner in which parties report in their audit report. For example: AAP declared donations from electoral bonds under the head “Others (Electoral Bonds/Electoral Trust),” added the report.
The most common and popular source of income for the national and regional political parties for FY 2019-20, according to the ADR report, are donations through Electoral Bonds which have emerged as the most popular channel of donations to parties in the last two years. The report says, “It is to be noted that the JMM party has declared the name of the donor who donated Rs 1 crore through Electoral Bonds in its contribution report for FY 2019-20, however, this income through electoral bonds has not been declared by the party in its audit report, FY 2019-20. This raises the question as to whether political parties are aware of the donor’s identity who made contributions via electoral bonds, as can be seen in this case.”
During the financial year 2019-20, out of the 42 regional parties, the JDS, SAD, JVM-P and LJP declared receiving a total income of Rs 14.884 cr from the sale of coupons. Of all regional parties that have submitted their audit reports, 14 parties namely the TRS, TDP, YSR-C, BJD, DMK, SHS, AAP, JDU, SP, JDS, SAD, AIADMK, RJD and JMM have declared receiving donations through Electoral Bonds worth Rs 447.498 cr, which is 50.97 per cent, says the ADR report.
The most common and popular items of expenditure for regional parties for the financial year 2019-20 are election expenses, general propaganda and administrative, general expenses. Janata Dal Secular (JDS) has declared membership fees and other fees under the grants, donations, contributions for the FY 2019-20, as per the report.
The leaders were taken into custody on Monday morning while they were on their way to Lakhimpur Kheri …reports Asian Lite News
Samajwadi Party leaders Akhilesh Yadav. Ram Gopal Yadav and their supporters have been released after almost six hours of detention in the Eco Garden in Lucknow. Shivpal Yadav was also released.
The leaders were taken into custody on Monday morning while they were on their way to Lakhimpur Kheri to meet the families of those who died in Sunday’s violence.
Akhilesh has returned to his residence.
Shivpal Yadav, president of the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party Lohia (PSPL) was released from the Police Lines and was on his way back to his house.
The BJP leaders in some poll-bound states believe that these people will help the party at the ground level, besides weakening the opposition camps…reports Asian Lite News.
In the run up to next year’s Assembly polls in five states, the BJP has planned to induct local influential leaders of other political parties to boost its campaign.
As per the plan, the BJP will try to induct influential leaders from the opposition camps, both at the Assembly and block levels.
Five states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur — are scheduled to go to the polls next year.
A senior BJP leader aware of the development pointed out that there are many influential leaders in the opposition camps at the Assembly and block levels who are unhappy with their current organisation due to different reasons.
“We are approaching these disgruntled leaders with a request to join us to serve the people. Those who are ready to serve the people and agree to follow the ideology of the BJP are welcome. There will not be any pre-condition like ticket or other promises for joining the party,” he said.
The BJP is also approaching influential individuals with an offer to join the party.
“We can find many influential individuals at the local level. Many of them are not interested in electoral politics, but are willing to work for the society. We will ask them to join us to serve the people and the society in a better way,” a party leader said.
The BJP leaders in some poll-bound states believe that these people will help the party at the ground level, besides weakening the opposition camps.
A party insider said that feedback will be taken from the local BJP leadership before allowing anyone to join the saffron camp.
AIADMK, BJP wooing PMK to remain in NDA fold
The opposition AIADMK and the BJP are reaching out to the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) to remain in the NDA fold after the latter announced to go solo in the rural local body polls.
The PMK on Tuesday announced that it would contest the ensuing rural local body elections, to be held on October 6 and October 9, alone.
The PMK is the political arm of the powerful Vanniyar community and the previous AIADMK government had ordered 10.5 per cent reservation for the community from within the Most Backward Caste (MBC) fold, a long pending demand of the PMK and its founder leader, Dr S. Ramadoss.
Edappadi K. Palaniswami (left) & O. Panneerselvam (right), Former Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu (Wikipedia)
However, after the DMK government came to power, it announced a Government Order for the 10.5 per cent reservation for the Vanniyar community as well as a memorial for the 21 Vanniyars who were shot dead by the police during the regime of AIADMK leader M.G. Ramachandran on September 17, 1987.
Political observers are of the opinion that the DMK was trying to woo the Vanniyar community to get a stronghold in North Tamil Nadu where the community is strong. The announcement by the state president of the party and also an MLA G.K. Mani that the PMK would contest the rural local body polls alone was a shocker for the AIADMK-BJP combine. and hence the firefighting operation began quickly.
Sources in the BJP said that senior leaders of the party in New Delhi have already communicated to the PMK youth wing leader Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss, who was a minister in the Atal Behari Vajpayee Government, to stay back in the NDA fold in Tamil Nadu.
The court added the prosecution has not been able to point out even one instance where the accused had done something purposefully which facilitated the commission of the offence… reports Asian Lite News.
A Delhi court, while discharging Congress MP Shashi Tharoor in the case related to death of his wife Sunanda Pushkar, said there is nothing on record to show he had “provoked, incited or induced the deceased to commit suicide”, and that she might have felt distressed or mentally disturbed with his alleged extra-marital relation, “but mental disturbances does not constitute the offence of abetment”.
In the 176-page order, special judge Geetanjali Goel said: “There is nothing to demonstrate any overt act on the part of the accused (Tharoor) and only on the ground that he continued the alleged affair with MT (a Pakistani journalist) (even if it is assumed) and exchanged messages with her, it cannot be presumed that he had abetted the commission of suicide by the deceased.”
Emphasising criminal trials require evidence, the court said there is no doubt a precious life was lost, but in the absence of specific allegations and sufficient material, it cannot presume Tharoor had committed the offence, and he cannot be compelled to face the rigmarole of a criminal trial.
The court added the prosecution has not been able to point out even one instance where the accused had done something purposefully which facilitated the commission of the offence.
“There is no material whatsoever against the accused, much less any positive act to instigate or aid the deceased in committing the suicide, even if it is assumed that the death was a suicide. As such, it is not shown, even prima facie, that the offence under Section 306 IPC is made out against the accused,” said the court.
The court observed that Pushkar might have felt distressed or mentally disturbed with the alleged extra-marital relation of the accused, but mental disturbance does not constitute the offence of abetment.
The court further added even it cannot be said that a person subjecting a woman to cruelty is guilty of abetment unless something is brought on record. “Even for instigation, the intention to provoke, incite, urge or encourage doing of an act is an essential factor but the record does not bear out any such intention on the part of the accused,” it said.
The prosecution had argued that Tharoor had continued the affair with MT despite his assurance not to continue the same and this showed wilful misrepresentation and instigation by misrepresentation.
Junking this contention, the court said: “There is nothing on record to show that the accused did some act in order to irritate or annoy the deceased until she reacted or strongly persuaded or advised the deceased to do some act with the intention to provoke, incite, urge or encourage the latter to commit suicide.”
The court on Wednesday had pronounced the order discharging Tharoor. Pushkar was found dead on the evening of January 17, 2014. Initially, Delhi Police investigated it as a murder, with an FIR registered under Section 302 (murder) of the Indian Penal Code (IPC), but then it charged Tharoor under Sections 306 (abetment of suicide) and 498A (cruelty by husband).
Of the five states that comprise south India, three are ruled by regional parties, one has a Left-coalition dispensation, with only Karnataka having a fragile BJP government uneasily in place, reports Narendra Puppala
If the outcomes of various elections over the past few decades, till the recent Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu and Kerala are any indication, south of the Vindhyas, the electoral arena remains a minefield for mainstream national parties, read the BJP and Congress.
Of the five states that comprise south India, three are ruled by regional parties, one has a Left-coalition dispensation, with only Karnataka having a fragile BJP government uneasily in place.
While the Congress continues to lose prominence across the country, its situation has been particularly precarious down south, long considered its citadel. The slow slide to inconsequence began in Tamil Nadu with the party succumbing to the anti-Hindi stance that continues to this day.
Thereafter, in the eighties, fuelled by filmstar-turned-politician NT Rama Rao’s Telugu Pride, the then state of Andhra Pradesh showed the door to the Congress. Post-bifurcation, the party has made way for regional parties in Andhra Pradesh as well as the fledgling state of Telangana. For a change, the Congress has managed to be on the winning side in Tamil Nadu, but it lost the Kerala polls for the second time in a row.
Bihar BJP workers .
The story is not very different for the BJP, ruling the roost at the Centre, and a host of states in the north, west, and eastern parts of the country. With negligible presence for decades, the south remains a tough nut to crack for the BJP. Although the saffron party did make inroads with successes in Karnataka, it has lost steam and continues to steer a leaking ship through the choppy waters of an unconvincing majority in the Assembly.
Compared to states like Tripura and Assam in the East, the BJP has had a lacklustre performance in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. While it drew a blank in Andhra Pradesh Assembly polls in 2019, the BJP’s graph in neighbouring Telangana has been a bit of a rollercoaster. Bolstered by its wins in Dubbaka Assembly poll and Hyderabad municipal polls, the BJP is preparing to squarely take on the ruling TRS in the next Assembly election. While Telangana is its most promising arena in the south, the reverses it suffered in Bengal polls should give the BJP some food for thought.
Despite high expectations, the party ended up losing even the sole Assembly seat it had won in the previous Kerala election. To its credit, the BJP has won four seats, making a comeback in the newly-constituted Tamil Nadu Assembly after 20 years. But with a distinctly Dravidian party at the helm, there is little that the BJP can expect to achieve here in the foreseeable future.
So, what really are the reasons for the national parties’ lack of traction in the South?
Congress President Sonia Gandhi, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal and A.K. Antony during the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting (IANS)
For starters, the southern states have had a strong tradition of throwing up homegrown leaders. From Karunanidhi, MGR, Jayalalithaa, NTR, KCR, and Jagan Mohan Reddy all have built up their votebanks assiduously. All of them are accessible in the vicinity rather than faraway Delhi. In fact, the BJP’s success story in Karnataka wouldn’t have been possible without Chief Minister B.S. Yediurappa, another homegrown leader.
In the Congress, a culture of subservience to the family has effectively killed local leadership. For the BJP it is a case of not having sufficiently large mass base. Unfortunately for the BJP, the process of building up local leadership is a slow and labourious process that cannot be substituted by wholesale imports from other parties. It needs to plan for a long-term future rather than the immediate future.
The second factor that is a stumbling block in the BJP’s expansion plans in the south, has to do with demographics.
Compared to the other three parts, the communal composition is not so pronounced in the south. Therefore, sharp polarisation on religious or cultural lines is not easy. The Congress has seemingly hit a wall, apparently not a favourite with youngsters who make up the major share of the electorate. According to social scientists, rising urbanisation and education levels have also majorly affected the party’s fortunes at the hustings.
Most importantly, it is the presence of a strong local sentiment in each of these states, wary of being swept away by a north Indian wave. This is precisely why regional parties thrive, and pose challenges for the national parties. A trend that is likely to sustain for at least the next few election cycles.
After members of the eight political parties had met at Pawar’s residence for over two and a half hours on Tuesday, the NCP, however, sought to clarify that the meeting was not called by the party supremo…reports Asian Lite News.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor on Wednesday met Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) supremo Sharad Pawar at his residence, for the third time in a fortnight, and a day after members of eight political parties met there.
According to sources, the meeting of Pawar and Kishor lasted for over an hour. The frequent Kishor-Pawar meetings have been fuelling speculations on the creation of a third front to combat the BJP.
Earlier Kishor, whose latest success has been the victory of the Trinamool Congress in the recently-concluded West Bengal Assembly polls, had met Pawar at his Mumbai residence on June 11 and once again on Monday in Delhi at the NCP leader’s residence.
After members of the eight political parties had met at Pawar’s residence for over two and a half hours on Tuesday, the NCP, however, sought to clarify that the meeting was not called by the party supremo but the Rashtra Manch of former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha.
NCP’s former Rajya Sabha member Majeed Memon said that “speculation is in media that Sharad Pawar has called the meet, which is not correct”. He said this meeting was called by the Rashtra Manch and was only organised at the residence of Pawar.
Memon also dismissed as a “wrong perception” that it was an opposition meet, excluding the Congress, or a ‘third front’ meet.
Leaders of several parties including Trinamool Congress’ Sinha, Samajwadi Party’s Ghanshyam Tiwari, Rashtriya Lok Dal President Jayant Chaudhary, Aam Aadmi Party’s Sushil Gupta, CPI-M’s Nilotpal Basu, CPI’s Binoy Viswam, National Conference’s Farooq Abdullah, former Congress leader Sanjay Jha and former JD-U leader Pavan Verma were present.
Other prominent personalities like Justice A.P. Shah, Javed Akhtar and former diplomat K.C. Singh also attended.
Despite the charges swirling over him, off and on there has been talk of his becoming a second edition of the Manmohan Singh phenomenon, writes Prof. Madhav Nalapat
P. Chidambaram, the urbane leader from Tamil Nadu of the Congress Party, has been in the headlines since the 1980s, during his steady rise that began from his stint translating Rajiv Gandhi’s speeches from English to Tamil. Thereafter, he went on to ministerial status in multiple administrations. Thrice Union Minister for Finance, Chidambaram has also been through 106 days of incarceration during NDA II, although the police officials responsible for this later appear to have been sidelined. Both in the INX case and in the Aircel Maxis matter, efforts have been made by his detractors to make him a “state guest” once again, this time for a longer period. Thus far, such efforts do not seem to have gained much traction. Chidambaram has in the meantime emerged as among the most prominent voices in the Opposition, excoriating the Narendra Modi government on its handling of the economy in particular. His relationship with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul appears to continue to be on strong foundations, as does his connect with many of those prominent in the Opposition. It needs to be added that Chidambaram shared a longstanding friendship with some of the top leaders of the BJP, although this list has shrunk, especially since Modi 2.0.
Despite the charges swirling over him and the reality of him not conforming to the backslapping, tactile type of politician in the manner that his party colleague Digvijaya Singh is, off and on there has been talk of his becoming a second edition of the Manmohan Singh phenomenon. The saga of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh began in 2004, when the mild-mannered, scholarly economist was pitchforked into the most important job in the country by Congress president Sonia Gandhi. Since the debacle of rival political formations at the hands of Modi and the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there has been a lull in activity seeking to generate a second 2004 upset of a BJP-led government. Since the later months of 2020, the effects on lives and livelihoods caused by SARS2, especially the unexpected second wave in 2021, have lifted the expectations of key elements of the Opposition that a repeat of 2004 in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is indeed possible. They see the key to this as the economy, buffeted as it has been by the turbulence caused by the pandemic.
GLOBAL GROUP BEHIND PLAN
A group of High Net Income individuals based in New York, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, London and Kuala Lumpur, along with associates in India, has begun work on promoting the prospects of Congress leader P. Chidambaram to emerge in 2023 as the consensus choice of the Opposition for the Prime Ministership in the 2024 polls. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party he leads, the BJP, continue to maintain a commanding national lead over any challenger in the electoral ring, this group (which may be termed the Group of Nine, signifying the number of its key members) believes that the economic and societal shocks caused by the SARS2 pandemic on India will continue for two years more, if not more. In other words, that absence of significant recovery from the income and job losses caused by the pandemic will remain into the period just before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This, they believe, will have a significant impact on PM Modi’s USP, which is that he is far and away the best hope for economic progress in India. The BJP has based its majority primarily on its electoral clout in the Hindi belt. The calculation of the Group of Nine is that the BJP will suffer major declines in the Hindi belt before 2024, falls caused by job and income losses that will override the party’s appeal on other issues. The economic and societal consequences of SARS2 would, in their view, cause a snowballing effect on national politics, leading to the assembling (by the close of 2023) and the formation after the 2024 polls of a coalition government led by Opposition parties.
That the economy has been the focus of several opposition attacks on the BJP has been evident since the close of 2017, with former Congress president Rahul Gandhi being the most vociferous. While there seemed to be a substantial impact of the economic factor in 2018 on BJP fortunes, as seen in the byelection results of that year, the Balakot strike in February 2019 and the announcement that Rahul Gandhi would be the Congress candidate for the Prime Ministership gave sufficient oxygen to the BJP to enable that party to secure an even bigger Lok Sabha majority than in 2014. In the public mind, images of Balakot and the belief that Narendra Modi was a far more reliable pair of hands at the helm of the nation than Rahul Gandhi swung the tide in favour of the BJP. Next time around, given that the economic situation in 2020-21 is far worse than it was in 2018-19 (and it is expected by Modi’s detractors that this situation will continue), they believe that a similar turnaround in the public mood through the factor of emotion in favour of the BJP is unlikely.
THE CALCULATIONS MADE BY GROUP
The Group of Nine regards it as mandatory that an individual gets anointed in 2023 itself as a safe pair of hands, and who would therefore be the consensus choice of the Opposition for the Prime Ministership. Given the hold that the party retains despite its reverses, they believe that (1) the Congress must lead such a coalition at the national level, and (2) the candidate for the Prime Ministership must not be from the Nehru family. The Group of Nine believes that the Congress Party leadership as an entirety understands the risk in once again promoting Rahul Gandhi as the party’s face in the 2024 polls. In their view, the best option would be to showcase three-time Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram as the Prime Ministerial face of the Congress Party and work to get him accepted so as to form a joint opposition front to take on the BJP.
Apart from what may be their personal connect with Chidambaram or some of those close to him, this calculation is based on:
(a) Chidambaram not being a threat to any regional leader, including Stalin in Tamil Nadu, given his hands-off approach towards the building up of the backslapping camaraderie required for the purpose.
Congress President Sonia Gandhi, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal and A.K. Antony during the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting (IANS)
(b) The South is likely to be an important determinant in which combination next gets a Lok Sabha majority in what is expected to be a close contest in 2024. Hence the need to choose a leader from that region, especially in a context where the BJP has been gaining ground in each of the southern states, to the shock of those who have long dismissed the party as a “Hindi-belt” outfit. It may be pointed out that Hindi-speaking states are very accepting and moderate in their approach to other languages, with several Hindi-speaking citizens eager for example to learn English, a language that successive governments have since 1947 effectively kept out of the reach of the poor and those in rural areas. Bollywood has disseminated a knowledge and love of Hindi in a manner far more effective than numerous attempts by successive Central governments to spread Hindi among states speaking other languages, through making it obligatory in schools and in other ways. While Chidambaram makes no secret of his lack of skill in speaking Hindi, he has for decades worked smoothly with Hindi-belt politicians, unlike other leaders from Tamil Nadu.
(c) The economy looms large in the public mind as a consequences of SARS2 ravaging tens of millions of individuals. In the view of the Group of Nine, Chidambaram is the politician best placed in the Opposition space to campaign on what they expect will be an economy still feeling the aftershocks of the pandemic. His party has made him the spokesman for talking about the economic effects of the pandemic (which the Congress Party places entirely on the shoulders of PM Modi), and his barbs at the Central government have increased over the years. At the same time, they believe that neither Mamata Banerjee nor Arvind Kejriwal carries the potential public benefit of the experience of Chidambaram in handling economic matters. This is so despite the skills exhibited by them in besting the BJP electorally in their home states.
(d) Chidambaram has built extensive linkages within SE Asia, China, the US and Europe thanks to his tenure as Finance Minister, and these are to be showcased to offer an alternative to Modi, a leader who has not been seriously challenged since 2013. Whether in London, Hong Kong, Singapore or Dubai, Chidambaram has an extensive network of friends and contacts. As indeed is the case in the bureaucracy as well, and not just among retired officials. Such contacts can be used to present the narrative of him as a viable alternative to Prime Minister Modi in a way that others in the opposition space may not be able to.
CHIDAMBARAM PUSHED ‘HINDU TERROR’ SMEAR
The Group of Nine is aware of other charges hurled at Chidambaram. These include the fact that the chimera of “Hindu terror” was artificially created during his 2008-13 tenure as the Union Home Minister. The excuse they offer is that he was made to do this by Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. The latter is reported as being on record that “Hindu radicals are a bigger threat than LeT”. The leakage of his conversation and the comparison made in it with US ambassador Timothy Roemer has yet to be contradicted by Rahul Gandhi. That ministers had to bend to the will of the “High Command” or lose their jobs was no secret, and it is such a defence that supporters of the “Chidambaram for PM” move aim to use when he comes under attack for highlighting the concept of “Hindu terror”. A month after Rahul Gandhi’s comments to Roemer, in August 2010, at a conference of police officials, Home Minister Chidambaram claimed that “Hindu terrorists” were behind many of the bomb blasts taking place at the time. Both former Home Secretary G.K. Pillai and Under-Secretary R.V.S. Mani have spoken of how “the focus of Chidambaram during his tenure as Home Minister was to strengthen the non-existent Hindu terror threat by any means possible”. Those behind the smear on a community in excess of a billion people worked overtime to churn out variants of the “Hindu terror” disinformation virus, but the spread of the virus within the general population was almost non-existent, to the disappointment of its originators. A counter that is being put up by backers of Chidambaram is to point out that both G.K. Pillai as well as R.V.S. Mani have been ignored by the present government, even though several officials known to be close to the UPA have been given attractive postings since 2014. If what R.V.S. Mani and G.K. Pillai said about the then Home Minister had been correct, the Group of Nine argues, surely the present government, no friend of the Congress Party First Family or Chidambaram, would have recognized them better for speaking out in the manner they did.
ACTION ABSENT ON KEY ALLEGATIONS
Another set of charges relate to allegations of financial impropriety by Chidambaram while he served as the Finance Minister during the two terms of the UPA. The claim of his detractors is that there are a collection of bankers, security market analysts, officials and corporates said to be closely associated with Chidambaram who protected his interests. Details of such a hypothesis have been provided in “Market Mafia”, a book by business journalist Palak Shah. This outlines a chain of market manipulations that the author claims took place in plain sight of regulatory agencies. Another set of revelations has come from a book by the globally renowned team of Sucheta Dalal and Debashish Basu, “Absolute Power”, which is mainly about the National Stock Exchange. This has long been alleged to have had the patronage of the UPA-era Finance Minister. It has been claimed that his decisions and even live broadcast of parliamentary speeches during market hours had an immediate impact on the market, from which several lost while a few gained. The Colo (co-location) imbroglio has been cited in theirs and in several other reports. The Dalal-Basu book has been having record sales. The Group of Nine however points out that, as with Palak Shah’s book, no significant action on the part of the government seems to have been initiated on the basis of the conclusions of Dalal, Basu and Shah. According to the Group of Nine, given the public reputation for integrity of the Modi government, such lack of governmental follow-up will be a sign to the voters that the charges made in the two books and in multiple other reports are not accepted as actionable by the official machinery.
MARKET MELTDOWN SOUGHT BEFORE POLLS
Sources known to be credible have warned that the “market mafia” is looking to engineer a stock exchange meltdown close to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Their intention is to blight the chances of a hat-trick by Prime Minister Modi through his winning the 2024 elections. Should such a stock exchange crisis occur in the manner of the earlier Rao-era Harshad Mehta or Vajpayee-era LIC imbroglios, Chidambaram’s voter appeal as a crisis manager would rise. Such a development would be ironic in the eyes of those who believe those close to the former Finance Minister are at the heart of much of the market manipulations. The Group of Nine points to the fact that both the governments that were in office during the Harshad Mehta and LIC scams got defeated in the subsequent Lok Sabha polls. This is the “hat-trick” that they are planning to achieve in 2024, given the electoral importance of the tens of millions of retail investors in both urban as well as in rural areas, not to mention deposits in various non-banking finance companies, which too would be affected as a consequence of stock market manipulations caused by insufficient accountability and oversight.
The Group of Nine points out that the charges made of facilitating insider trades by Chidambaram while he was Finance Minister would have been extensively investigated by investigative and regulatory agencies since 2014. In case conclusive evidence had been found against Chidambaram and others named in accounts such as those presented in the books mentioned earlier, those guilty would have been proceeded against in view of PM Modi’s policy of Zero Tolerance for corruption, especially at the higher levels. Neither SEBI nor the RBI nor North Block has, it is pointed out, thus far found that the charges made against Chidambaram and others presumed to be connected to him warrant more than relatively small fines and penalties on a few who have been discovered as being involved. If the charges were truly as significant as detractors of Chidambaram claim, by now several existing and retired top officials would be facing prosecution as a consequence of action by the Government of India, they point out. The Group of Nine points to the fact that several of the office-holders repeatedly named by detractors of Chidambaram have not only been retained but promoted. This, in their view, carries its own message to voters as to the truth or otherwise of such charges. Prime Minister Modi is known for his attention to detail and his administrative skills, not to mention commitment towards establishing a corruption-free governance system.
ECONOMY AS OPPOSITION FOCUS
“Dilli door ast”, as are the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Whether Sonia Gandhi or powerful state leaders such as Stalin, Mamata or Kejriwal would accept Chidambaram as the Prime Ministerial face of the Opposition remains unproven. The Group of Nine acknowledges this, but say that they will press ahead with their mission of positioning P. Chidambaram as the Prime Ministerial face of the opposition in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He can then go head to head against the formidable appeal of Narendra Modi as an administrator and manager of the economy. What is clear is that planning for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has begun in earnest in more than one location, and in more than one country. And that as of now, the odds-on favourite to win a hat-trick in 2024 remains PM Modi.
With the rise of strong triangular competition in many constituencies, the outcome is unpredictable, reports Aravind Rajeev.
With hardly two weeks left, the electioneering is in full pace as ninety-nine candidates are in the fray for the 14 Assembly constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram district.
With the rise of strong triangular competition in many constituencies, the outcome is unpredictable with many candidates who secured victory now face stiff competition.
Two of the 14 assembly constituencies — Nemom and Kazhakoottam — turned to be the focal points in the election which is scheduled to be held on April 6.
Nemom, the lone sitting seat of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state, is one of the most-watched constituencies in Kerala with an unpredictable triangular contest.
BJP is going with former Mizoram governor and senior leader Kummanam Rajasekharan, who had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Thiruvanathapuram.
In the 2016 Assembly polls, Nemom rode into national headlines, when the BJP opened its account in the Kerala Assembly when its star candidate — former Union Minister O. Rajagopal defeated CPI(M) leader V. Sivankutty and left the Congress-led UDF candidate, a former state Minister V. Surendran Pillai of the then Janata Dal (U), a poor third.
But now, winning will be not that easy for BJP since the Congress has fielded its all-time ‘failsafe’ – K. Muraleedharan, son of late leader K. Karunakaran and sitting Member of Parliament from Vatakara constituency.
Congress decision to field Mureleedharan came after a huge drama with names of opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala and former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy flooded the news channels, social media, and also in the official political speeches as proposed candidates.
The CPI(M) has put up V Sivankutty, who won from Nemom in 2011. However, it will be the most keenly fought triangular contest in the state.
The highest number of 11 candidates are contesting in the Nemom Assembly constituency followed by 10 candidates each in Thiruvananthapuram and Vamanapuram.
With the arrival of BJP leader Sobha Surendran as the candidate in Kazhakkuttam, the electoral predictions in the constituency have completely changed. A tough triangular contest is expected in the constituency, where, last time, the BJP finished in second place.
As expected, Surendran has played the BJP trump card — the controversy surrounding women’s entry in Sabarimala — to woo Hindu voters largely. She is pitted against the LDF’s Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran, who is now at the receiving end of criticisms related to Sabarimala.
Speaking to the media, Surendran said that the Sabarimala issue remained an emotive one and will have a major impact on the elections. However, Kadakampally is blocking this by highlighting the developments made in the constituency.
While on the other hand, Congress’ surprise pick of Dr S.S. Lal may change the polls results its course on UDF favour. Dr Lal is also the state president of All India Professional Congress.
Unlike the previous election, the sitting MLAs in the district, seem to have fears about the outcome of the results as the newcomers almost succeeded in the first place to create the impression that there is strong competition in many constituencies.
In the constituencies including Vamanapuram, Parassala, Kattakada, Neyyattinkara, Kovalam, Thiruvananthapuram, Aruvikkara, Chirayinkeezhu, Varkala and Vattiyoorkavu, the ground has been set for close battles.
Most of the new faces have close relationship with the constituencies they are contesting. UDF candidates Ansajitha Russell of Parassala, Anand Jayan from Vamanapuram, and Venugopal from Malayinkeezhu in Kattakada, were members of District Panchayats.
LDF candidate OS Ambika is the Block Panchayat President in Attingal and Janadhipathya Kerala Congress candidate for Thiruvananthapuram Antony Raju and Janata Dal (Secular) candidate for Kovalam A. Neelalohitadasan Nadar are former state legislators.
In Nedumangad, candidates PS Prashanth of the UDF and GR Anil of the Communist Party of India (CPI) have got personal connections in the constituency, which they try to turn into votes.
Same is the case in Neyyattinkara. Congress candidate R. Selvaraj is a former MLA from Neyyattinkara. LDF candidates G. Stephen of Aruvikara was CPI-M’s Area Secretary.
Increase of 50k voters
According to the latest voters list released by the Election Commission last week, the number of voters in the district has increased by more than 50,000.
The list, which was published on January 20 last year, had 27,69,272 voters. This year, the number has been increased to 28,19,710 with 50,438 additional voters.
Of these, 13,40,691 are male electors, 14,78,958 female electors and 61 are transgender voters. Transgender voters figure on the list in all constituencies except Varkala and Parassala. With 61 transgender voters, Thiruvananthapuram is also the district with the highest number of voters in this category.
The highest number of voters is in Parasala constituency – 2.19 lakh and the lowest is in the nearest constituency, Neyyattinkara – 1,86,705.
