Tag: POPULATION

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-Top News India News

India Will Remain Most Populous Despite Future Decline

By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, exceeding the number of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants reaching 265 million, it said…reports Asian Lite News

India will continue to be the world’s most populous country into the next century, even though its population will peak in the mid-2060s and begin a slow decline, according to a population expert.

India is “currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century,” Senior Population Affairs Officer Clare Menozzi said on Thursday at the release of the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Summary.

India’s population is “supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline,” she said. “So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but still the largest country in the world by a large margin.” According to the data accompanying the report, India’s population is projected to grow from 1.45 billion now to a peak of 1.7 billion in 2064 when the decline begins, and register 1.5 billion in 2100, a 12 per cent drop. The report noted that India is among the countries where the working-age population – 20 to 64 years – will grow through 2054,” offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend.” To capitalise on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency, the report suggested. Life expectancy for Indians is projected to grow from 72.24 years now to 83.3 years by 2100. The total fertility rate for India, which is the number of children a woman has, will decline from the current 1.96 and start the next century at 1.69.

A total fertility rate of 2.2 is considered the replacement rate that will hold the population steady, and a dip below that signals a decline in population, although it could still be growing because of increasing life expectancy and because of the previous population growth that resulted in a large number of younger women who will be of child-bearing age. In the next 30 years, Pakistan will become the world’s third-most populous country, according to the report’s projections, increasing its population from the current 251 million to 389 million in 2054, overtaking the United States and Indonesia.

That year, India is projected to have a population of 1.69 billion and China 1.21 billion. For the world, the population will peak in the mid-2080s, growing over the next sixty years from 8.2 billion people now to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then will slide to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century, according to Navid Hanif, the United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development. The report drew attention to the trend of an ageing population, where senior citizens will outnumber children.

By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, exceeding the number of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants reaching 265 million, it said. The trend towards a preponderance of an ageing population is already happening in several countries The report proposed that countries consider the use of technology to improve productivity at all ages and expand lifelong learning and re-training to extend working lives for those who can and want to continue working.

About the future of the globe with a burgeoning population and the stress on the environment, Population Division’s Director John Wilmoth said that the impact will be from behaviour, rather than the numbers. “What the world is like in 60 years, will depend on a lot of choices that will be made between now and then, policies that will be implemented or not, and technological advances and so forth,” he said. “All of these things will change the world that we’re living in. Population trends will be one part of that, but not necessarily the largest or the determining part,” he said. “What really matters is our behaviours and the choices that we make.”

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-Top News UK News

UK population to hit 70 mn by mid-2026

The ONS said the UK population was now set to increase by 6.6mn people over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, a rise of 9.9 per cent, from an estimated 67mn to 73.7mn…reports Asian Lite News

The UK population will reach 70mn by the middle of 2026, faster than previously thought, due to higher levels of net migration, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

The ONS’s projection of 315,000 for long-run annual net immigration is significantly higher than the assumed long-run level of 245,000 underpinning the latest fiscal and economic forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

However, it is slightly lower than estimates published by Oxford university’s Migration Observatory in December, which gave a base case of net migration falling to about 350,000 by 2030.

If the OBR adopted the ONS numbers, which it is not obliged to do, this would boost the size of the UK workforce over its five-year forecast horizon, with a corresponding increase in gross domestic product and tax revenues.

Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College, London, said this could add about 0.3-0.4 per cent to GDP and tax revenues by the end of the OBR’s forecast, and so could “slightly improve the outlook for growth and the fiscal position” at the Budget statement in March.

The statistics agency released population projections that are for the first time based on the 2021 census. It revised its assumption on the long-term level of net international migration, which it projects to be steady at 315,000 from 2028 onwards. However, it did not update its previous assumption for fertility in the overall population, which has fallen recently.

The ONS said the UK population was now set to increase by 6.6mn people over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, a rise of 9.9 per cent, from an estimated 67mn to 73.7mn.

This increase includes 541,000 more births than deaths and net international migration of 6.1mn.

However, the ONS cautioned that the figures were based on current and past trends, as well as “expert advice” on “the likelihood of higher levels of international migration over the long-term”, and should not be taken as a forecast. The agency does not usually factor in the effect of policy changes.

“Our projections . . . are not predictions. If migration comes down, then so will our assumptions for use in future projections,” said James Robards, head of population and household projections at the ONS.

When the ONS last published population projections in early 2022 — shortly after the introduction of post-Brexit curbs on movement between the UK and EU — it thought net immigration would fall in the short term and settle at about 205,000 a year.

Since then, the number of people arriving in the UK has soared, with record inflows of international students, recruits to the NHS and care sector, and refugees from Ukraine and elsewhere pushing net immigration to a record high of 745,000 in 2022.

However, both the Home Office and independent analysts expect inflows to slow sharply over the next few years, partly due to new government measures including a ban on most international students and care workers bringing family members to the UK with them.

On Tuesday, the Home Office set out further details of when these measures would take effect, with rules for care workers set to change in early March.

Higher salary requirements for employees recruited on skilled worker visas will also take effect in March and April. The government will also start phasing in an increase in the minimum income requirement for a UK citizen to marry an overseas partner from April.

Tom Pursglove, the Home Office minister leading the changes, said they would “bring numbers down substantially”.

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-Top News World News

World population will be 8 bn on Jan 1

Protesters block highway leading to Gwadar port.(photo: mobile.twitter.com/mhidayatrehman)

While world population growth remains brisk, growing from 6 billion to 8 billion since the turn of the millennium, the rate has slowed since doubling between 1960 and 2000…reports Asian Lite News

The world population grew by 75 million people over the past year and on New Year’s Day it will stand at more than 8 billion people, according to figures released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday.

The worldwide growth rate in the past year was just under 1 percent. At the start of 2024, 4.3 births and two deaths are expected worldwide every second, according to the Census Bureau figures.

The US growth rate in the past year was 0.53 percent, about half the worldwide figure. The US added 1.7 million people and will have a population on New Year’s Day of 335.8 million people.

If the current pace continues through the end of the decade, the 2020s could be the slowest-growing decade in US history, yielding a growth rate of less than 4 percent over the 10-year-period from 2020 to 2030, said William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution.

The slowest-growing decade currently was in the aftermath of the Great Depression in the 1930s, when the growth rate was 7.3 percent.

“Of course growth may tick up a bit as we leave the pandemic years. But it would still be difficult to get to 7.3 percent,” Frey said.

At the start of 2024, the United States is expected to experience one birth every nine seconds and one death every 9.5 seconds. However, immigration will keep the population from dropping. Net international migration is expected to add one person to the US population every 28.3 seconds. This combination of births, deaths and net international migration will increase the US population by one person every 24.2 seconds.

While world population growth remains brisk, growing from 6 billion to 8 billion since the turn of the millennium, the rate has slowed since doubling between 1960 and 2000.

People living to older ages account for much of the recent increase. The global median age, now 32, has been rising in a trend expected to continue toward 39 in 2060.

Countries such as Canada have been aging with declining older-age mortality, while countries such as Nigeria have seen dramatic declines in deaths of children under 5.

Fertility rates, or the rate of births per woman of childbearing age, are meanwhile declining, falling below replacement level in much of the world and contributing to a more than 50-year trend, on average, of slimmer increases in population growth.

The minimum number of such births necessary to replace both the father and mother for neutral world population is 2.1, demographers say. Almost three-quarters of people now live in countries with fertility rates around or below that level.

Countries with fertility rates around replacement level include India, Tunisia and Argentina.

About 15% of people live in places with fertility rates below replacement level. Countries with low fertility rates include Brazil, Mexico, the U.S. and Sweden, while those with very low fertility rates include China, South Korea and Spain.

Israel, Ethiopia and Papua New Guinea rank among countries with higher-than-replacement fertility rates of up to 5. Such countries have almost one-quarter of the world’s population.

Only about 4% of the world’s population lives in countries with fertility rates above 5. All are in Africa. Global fertility rates are projected to decline at least through 2060, with no country projected to have a rate higher than 4 by then, according to the bureau.

Italy’s population drops below 59 mn

Meanwhile, Italy’s population continued to decline in 2022, dropping below 59 million people, the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) said.

The 59 million threshold was first exceeded in Italy in 2009, and in the following year the population reached 60.6 million for the first time in the country’s history, reports Xinhua news agency.

The latest census data released on Monday showed that 58,997,201 people resided in the country as of December 31, 2022, 32,932 less than a year earlier. The number of births broke a “negative record”, ISTAT said.

The country registered 393,000 births in 2022, equaling a birth rate of 6.7 per thousand population. This was almost 7,000 below the 2021 figure and 183,000 below the 2008 figure. Last year, the country registered an increase in births.

The number of babies born to non-Italian parents was 53,000 in 2022, making up 13.5 per cent of all newborns. “The decrease in population remains contained thanks to the positive dynamics of the foreign population,” ISTAT said.

The census included over 5.1 million foreign residents, with an annual increase of 111,000, or 2.2 per cent. Overall, foreign-born citizens accounted for 8.7 per cent of the total resident population.

Life expectancy at birth was estimated at 80.5 years for males and 84.8 years for females in 2022. Some 61.3 per cent of the country’s 7,904 municipalities lost population compared to 2021, ISTAT said.

A slight increase in population, however, was registered in 2,936 larger municipalities, which all together were home to over 28.3 million people.

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-Top News India News PAKISTAN

‘40% Population Lives Below Poverty Line in Pakistan’

The Washington-based lender unveiled the draft policy notes that it prepared with the help of all stakeholders for the next government…reports Asian Lite News

Pakistan’s 40 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line, as per the World Bank, Dawn reported.

The country now needs to take a look at its policy decisions driven by strong vested interests of military, political and business leaders, as per the World Bank.

The warning by the financial institution comes ahead of the new election cycle so that the upcoming government can make early choices.

The World Bank has asked Pakistan to tax its agriculture and real estate to achieve economic stability through steep fiscal adjustment of over seven per cent of the size of the economy, as per Pakistan-based The Express Tribune newspaper.

The lender on Friday also revealed that poverty in Pakistan shot up to 39.4 per cent as of last fiscal year with 12.5 million more people falling into the trap due to poor economic conditions. About 95 million Pakistanis now live in poverty.

The Washington-based lender unveiled the draft policy notes that it prepared with the help of all stakeholders for the next government.

The lender identified low human development, unsustainable fiscal situation, over-regulated private sector, agriculture and energy sectors as the priority areas for reforms for the next government.

The World Bank proposed measures that immediately increase the tax-to-GDP ratio by five per cent and cut expenditures by about 2.7 per cent of GDP, aimed at putting the unsustainable economy back on a prudent fiscal path, according to the Express Tribune.

Meanwhile, the WB’s lead country economist Tobias Haque said the bank is deeply concerned about the economic situation of today.

Pakistan is facing serious economic and human development crises and it is at a point where major policy shifts are required, he added.

The bank’s note on strengthening government revenues showed a host of measures to improve the revenue-to-GDP ratio by five per cent through the withdrawal of tax exemptions and increasing the burden of taxes on the real estate and the agriculture sectors, as per The Express Tribune. (ANI)

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-Top News China India News

China’s projected population more than that of India, Parliament told

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) had said in April this year China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country…reports Asian Lite News

The government informed the Lok Sabha on Tuesday that projected population of India on July 1 this year is less than that of China.

Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai said in a written reply that as per United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the total projected population of China at the beginning of this month was about 142 crore. He said by another estimate India’s population is projected at 139 crore . “As per United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division online publication, World Population Prospectus 2022, the total projected population of China as on July 1, 2023 is 142,56,71,000. The projected population of India as on July 1, 2023, as per Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections published by National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, is 139,23,29,000,” he said.

Responding to a question whether the government proposes to conduct census and the time frame, the minister said that the intent of the Government for conducting Census 2021 was notified in Gazette of India on March 28, 2019.

“Due to outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the Census 2021 and the related field activities have been postponed,” he said.

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) had said in April this year China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country.

“By the end of this month, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people,” it had said in a tweet.

Population and China’s economy

A slowing population growth coupled with a steady increase in the ageing population is contributing to the deceleration of China’s economic growth, thereby impacting its journey to become the number one economy in the world, Asian Institute for China and IOR Studies (AICIS) reported.

As per recent data released by the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, China’s population has dwindled for the first time in several decades. The country has for long, reaped the benefits of having a large, young workforce that significantly drove its emergence as a global industrial powerhouse. According to UN figures published earlier this year, India has now surpassed China in terms of its population and has bagged the label of the most populous nation in the world.

China’s population control measures, which were prevalent between the late 1970s until the years 2013-2016, were in fact successful in reducing its huge population.

According to a CGTN report, this was followed by a dip in China’s birth rate wherein the average household size fell from 3.1 to 2.6 persons between 2010 and 2020. These records become vital in understanding why there was no real growth in its population even after an alteration in government policies that encouraged childbirth.

This crisis has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Its unpredictability has had an adverse mental impact which has made people decide against having children owing to the financial brunt that would follow.

As per AICIS, young Chinese born in and around the 2000s, currently in their early twenties, are not ready to have kids yet. The government is having a hard time trying to convince its young citizens to bear more children even as the latter do not feel the need or “responsibility” to produce more children just because the birth rate of their country is falling.

The fact that China is sitting on a “demographic time bomb” has, however, not created “any sense of urgency” among its young population even as the government is staying on full alert, according to AICIS. (ANI)

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-Top News Asia News Parenting

Japan: Half of unmarried people don’t want kids

49.4 per cent respondents aged between 18 to 29 years said they are not interested in having children.

Nearly half of unmarried people under 30 in Japan said they do not want children in a recent survey by a pharmaceutical firm, citing reasons including economic concerns and the burden of childbirth and parenting.

Of the 400 respondents between 18 to 29 years old, 49.4 per cent said they are not interested in having children, the highest percentage in any of the last three annual pregnancy white paper surveys conducted by Rohto Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

By gender, 53.0 per cent of men and 45.6 per cent of women have no interest in becoming parents, according to the online survey.

It’s baby season in Bollywood.(photo:IANSLIFE)

The government’s data showed the number of babies born in Japan in 2022 slipped to a record low of under 800,000 for the first time since records began to be compiled in 1899.

The drop came much earlier than the government expected.

According to a 2017 government forecast, births in Japan would fall below 800,000 for the first time in 2033.

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-Top News EU News Europe

EU’s population projected to drop by 6% by 2100

The proportion of children and young people (aged 0 to 19 years) in the total population is projected to decrease from 20 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 18 per cent by 2100…reports Asian Lite News

The European Union’s population will decrease by 6 per cent between 1 January 2022 and 1 January 2100, equivalent to 27.3 million fewer people, according to the latest population projections issued by Eurostat.

After a decrease in 2020 and 2021 due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the population of the EU started recovering during the course of 2022. As a consequence of the mass influx of refugees from Ukraine into the EU as a result of the crisis in Ukraine, the population is estimated to have reached 451 million persons on 1 January 2023.

Furthermore, the EU’s population is projected to peak at 453 million people in 2026, before decreasing to a projected level of 420 million in 2100.

The proportion of children and young people (aged 0 to 19 years) in the total population is projected to decrease from 20 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 18 per cent by 2100.

Similarly, the share of working-age people (aged 20-64 years) in the EU’s total population is projected to decrease from 59 per cent in 2022 to 50 per cent in 2100.

In contrast, the share of older age groups (65 years or more) in the EU’s total population is projected to increase. The share of those aged between 65-79 is expected to rise by 2 percentage points (pp) from 15 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 17 per cent in 2100, while the share of those aged 80 years or more is foreseen to be more than double, from 6 per cent to 15 per cent.

In 2022, the EU’s population pyramid already shows the shape associated with long life expectancies, low death rates and low birth rates: the highest shares of the population are made up of working-age people above 50, while the shares of young people below 20 are noticeably smaller.

The 2100 pyramid clearly shows development towards a shrinking and ageing society: decreases in the shares of children and young people below 20 and those of working age are only partially offset by increases in the shares of those aged 65 or more. Contrary to 2022, the pyramid does not start contracting after the age of 55 but remains relatively stable until around 85 years.

At the top of the projected pyramid for the year 2100, the age group 100 years or more becomes wider, with women aged 100 or more being projected to represent 0.3 per cent of the total population in 2100 against 0.02 per cent in 2022. (ANI/WAM)

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-Top News China

Concerns mount as China’s single population to hit 400 million

China's youth unemployment rate as high as nearly 20%.

The survey conducted by Wuhan University covered 425 cities/counties/districts in China’s 34 provincial-level administrative regions…reports Asian Lite News

In the face of plummeting marriage rates and the soaring divorce rate, Chinese youths risk being unmarried for life.

According to a recent survey, unmarried young people over 30 are widespread in China. Many young men and women in cities choose to be single, while many young men in rural areas are eliminated from the marriage market, reported Sina Weibo, a Chinese microblogging website. China’s population is shrinking for the first time in more than six decades in 2022, which is a serious demographic crisis for the country with significant implications for its slowing economy, CNN Business reported.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the population fell from the previous year by some 850,000 people as it recorded to 1.411 billion in the year 2022.

According to data surveyed in late January last month show that unmarried youths over the age of 30 are very common among men and women.

The survey conducted by Wuhan University covered 425 cities/counties/districts in China’s 34 provincial-level administrative regions.

The survey throws some alarming reality of present-day society. There are significant differences between urban and rural single. In the urban community, it is common for young men and women to marry late; in rural society, it is common for young men to face lifelong singleness, reported Sina Weibo.

Data analysis results show that – in cities, many single young men and women are the result of active choices. An ideology that being “single” is also a good life spreads in urban and rural societies.

In county towns, although a considerable number of women in the system are willing to marry, they are single due to the lack of high-quality male resources and unwillingness to give in.

In rural areas, a considerable number of unmarried young men over 30 have already been eliminated from the marriage market and are likely to face the risk of never marrying for life, added Sina Weibo.

China’s single population is to reach 400 million. In recent years, China’s marriage rate has continued to decline. The marriage situation of rural youths has attracted the attention of public opinion, and the issue of “difficulty for older rural men and youths to get married” has aroused heated discussions.

According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, the single adult population in China reached 240 million in 2018. The number of marriage registrations in 2021 was only 7.636 million, a new low since 1986.

As China’s marriage rate has declined in recent years and the divorce rate has continued to rise, it is estimated that China’s single population will reach 400 million in the future, reported Sina Weibo.

In the face of the soaring divorce rate, China issued a regulation last year that forces couples who want to break up to go through a 30-day “calm down period” before a final divorce in an attempt to reduce the divorce rate.

Falling marriage rates have led to a sharp drop in the birth rate, a sign of growing concern in a rapidly ageing Chinese society. Many young Chinese say they would rather not get married because jobs are getting harder to find, competition is fiercer, and the cost of living is getting out of hand.

Even if they get married, many Chinese couples prefer not to have children. The reason is that they are worried about the rising cost of education and the fact that there will be a burden on life if there are seniors and younger ones, added Sina Weibo.

Worried about a shrinking population, the Chinese government has for years introduced policies to encourage marriage and having children.

Strict family planning regulations have been revised twice in the past decade. First, it ended the decades-old “one-child” policy in 2015 and later allowed married couples to have three children.

Some cities have even come up with various incentives, such as extra vacation time for newlyweds and better maternity leave and protections for working mothers, to encourage marriage and to have children. However, since 2014, the marriage rate has declined every year. (ANI)

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-Top News Asia News

Kishida vows to reverse Japan’s falling birth rate

People wearing face masks walk through the Shibuya scramble crossing in Tokyo, Japan, Jan. 21, 2021. (Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoyu/IANS)

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says Japan is on the brink due to falling birth rate, reports Asian Lite News

Low birthrate crisis is deepening in Japan. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says his country is on the brink of not being able to function as a society because of its falling birth rate, media reports said.

Kishida said it was a case of “now or never”, the BBC reported.

Japan – population 125 million – is estimated to have had fewer than 800,000 births last year. In the 1970s, that figure was more than two million.

Birth rates are slowing in many countries, including Japan’s neighbours.

But the issue is particularly acute in Japan as life expectancy has risen in recent decades, meaning there are a growing number of older people, and a declining numbers of workers to support them, BBC reported.

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Photo_Xinhua_IANS)

Japan now has the world’s second-highest proportion of people aged 65 and over – about 28 per cent – after the tiny state of Monaco, according to World Bank data.

“Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society,” Kishida told lawmakers.

“Focusing attention on policies regarding children and child-rearing is an issue that cannot wait and cannot be postponed.”

He said that he eventually wants the government to double its spending on child-related programmes. A new government agency to focus on the issue would be set up in April, he added, BBC reported.

However, Japanese governments have tried to promote similar strategies before, without success.

Photo taken with a mobile phone shows passengers stranded in a JR Yokosuka Line train following an earthquake, Japan, March 16, 2022. (Photo by Sun Jialin/Xinhua/IANS)

Japan has continued implementing strict immigration laws despite some relaxations, but some experts are now saying that the rules should be loosened further to help tackle its ageing society.

Falling birth rates are driven by a range of factors, including rising living costs, more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children, BBC reported.

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-Top News World News

World population projected at 7.9 bn on New Year’s Day

Protesters block highway leading to Gwadar port.(photo: mobile.twitter.com/mhidayatrehman)

That marks a 0.9% increase in the world population over the past year…reports Asian Lite News

The world population is projected to be 7.9 billion people on New Year’s Day 2023, with 73.7 million people added since New Year’s Day 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday.

That marks a 0.9% increase in the world population over the past year. During January 2023, 4.3 births and two deaths are expected worldwide every second, the Census Bureau said.

The U.S. population on New Year’s Day 2023 is projected to be 334.2 million people, with 1.5 million people added since New Year’s Day 2022, or an increase of just under a half percent.

The U.S. is projected to have a birth every nine seconds and a death every 10 seconds in January 2023. Net international migration is expected to add a person to the U.S. population every 32 seconds. The combination of births, deaths and net international migration increases the U.S. population by a person every 27 seconds, according to the Census Bureau.

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