Since US President Joe Biden announced on May 1 the withdrawal of its troops, the Taliban has captured more than 150 districts, including the northern parts of the country, which was considered as a stronghold of democratically elected and US-supported Afghanistan government, reports Asian Lite News
Within a week after the US forces left Afghanistan, the atrocities and human rights violations by the Taliban witnessed a surge. A few days ago, two Afghan government officials were executed after being tortured. Also, 22 commanders of Afghan security forces were shot dead even when they tried to surrender. There have been numerous killings of civilians on suspicion of being supporters of the US or the Afghan government. Videos of such brutalities have been going viral. It has raised concerns over Afghanistan returning to the dark age, with the renewed Taliban regime curtailing women rights, basic human rights and even banning music and arts while awarding cruel punishments like stoning to death for disobeying.
An Afghan special force member attends a military operation against Taliban fighters in Kandak Anayat village of Kunduz city, Afghanistan, July 23, 2021. (Photo by Ajmal Kakar/Xinhua)
In June 2021, there were news reports that the Taliban had accepted the changing realities after the two decades of US presence in the country and had stopped brutalities against women and minorities like Shias and Hazaras. It was said the Taliban had changed and it did not carry out the massacre and destruct homes like Islamic State. However, it is turning out to be propaganda by the Taliban. The militant organisation has not changed as it has restored the horrific activities of atrocity soon after the US forces left Afghanistan. Farkhondeh Akbari, a Hazara university student, knew the arrival of Taliban rule would mean disaster for human rights and freedom achieved by women in the past two decades. “I am afraid of the future,” Akbari had said in June. Her words turned true soon. “America is leaving Afghanistan in chaos, in bloodshed, amid the operation of some twenty terrorist organizations and an emboldened Taliban that are not compromising an inch for power-sharing, for human rights and for the international call to reduce violence,” Akbari said.
Civilian deaths and injuries in Afghanistan from 2009-19. (Photograph: UN mission in Afghanistan)
Since US President Joe Biden announced on May 1 the withdrawal of its troops, the Taliban has captured more than 150 districts, including the northern parts of the country, which was considered as a stronghold of democratically elected and US-supported Afghanistan government. Meanwhile the Taliban claimed it controls 85 percent of the country. Around 47,600 civilians lost their lives in the crossfire between the US forces and the Taliban in the past two decades. Now, more civilians are likely to be killed by the Taliban as revenge over the allegations of being pro-US. Afghanistan is not new to the acts of revenge. “Cycles of revenge have fueled atrocity killings in the past, particularly in northern Afghanistan,” said Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch.
Now, the US forces have left the scene, Taliban has started distributing pamphlets, asking Afghan people to follow strict rules that are similar to those that were in place during Taliban rule between 1996-2001. They include restrictions on the movement of women and what they wear.
An Afghan special force member attends a military operation against Taliban fighters in Kandak Anayat village of Kunduz city, Afghanistan, July 23, 2021. (Photo by Ajmal Kakar/Xinhua)
Now they will not be able to leave the house without a male companion and covering themselves from head to foot with hijab. “They want to impose the restrictions that were imposed on women under their rule,” said Nahida, a 34-year woman from Balkh district. Similarly, men are ordered not to shave or trim beards. Another Balkh resident said “It is possible that they impose more restrictions. In some of the mosques, during the Friday sermons, Mullahs say that the Sharia law should be implemented.” Sojod from Jowzjan said “We are in the brutal era of the Taliban again. Those who claim the Taliban have changed, I invite them to come and see in Jowzjan and other parts of the country where they are restricting women from work and going outside. We are in the dark age again.”
Taliban has refused that it has resorted to violent activities. Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen said the reports of brutalities were wrong. “Our opponents are producing fake propaganda against us,” he said. However, the videos that are being circulated show otherwise. There have been atrocities and horrific war crimes in the area that have been captured by the Taliban recently. People are being beaten, tortured and even beheaded. Also, Afghani people are being shamed and punished publicly, which include whipping women for violating “modesty” laws. “Whilst, the Taliban have orchestrated to portray that they have changed after attending peace negotiations, a number of videos clearly unveil the Taliban’s true intent, behaviour, and the world they are determined to make for the citizens,” said Afghan Embassy in Australia.
Image Credit – www.voanews.com
Taliban has wedged direct attacks on young women and girls exercising their rights to education, civil society, academics, health workers, human rights defenders, media workers, civil servants, said UN-official and human rights expert Fionnuala Ni Aolain. “Today, the violence in Afghanistan has reached new heights of egregious human rights violations, demonstrating the escalating and devastating tactics of directly targeting civilian populations by terrorist groups,” she said. William Maley, emeritus professor at The Australian National University, the atrocities to go on abetted since the Taliban was hunting for total power. “They are not squeamish about the means used to intimidate each and every component of the Afghan population to achieve that objective,” he said.
Since last week the US has been carrying out multiple air strikes on Taliban strongholds in support of Afghan army…reports Asian Lite News
Indications from the United States that it could continue bombing Taliban strongholds beyond August 31, when Washington officially departs from the war-torn Afghanistan is bad news for the extremist group as well as its backers–Pakistan and China.
Since last week the US has been carrying out multiple air strikes on Taliban strongholds in support of Afghan army. The main targets are being struck in southern Kandahar province, the historic stronghold of the Taliban, and in Kunduz in the north where the government forces are facing increasing pressure from the Taliban.
So far, the US was meant to launch air strikes only against Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, and not the Taliban after August 31. But since the Taliban has started flouting the rules of the Doha accords with a sweeping attempt to capture territory, the old rules of engagement are now up in smoke. The sudden fragility in the situation is bad news for Pakistan and China — both supporters of the Taliban, which wish to occupy and command the strategic space in the heart of the Hindukush to assert their influence in vast territory in Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East.
The series of the US strikes by the drones and bombers has steeled the defiant response of the Afghan government against the Taliban onslaught. After the meeting with the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Sunday, General Kenneth McKenzie, head of the US Army Central Command told the media that Washington is prepared to continue this heightened level of support in the coming weeks if the Taliban continue their attacks. “I reassured the government that we will continue to provide airstrikes in defence of ANDSF forces under attack by the Taliban, contract logistic support both here in Kabul and “over-the-horizon” in the region, funding for them, intelligence sharing and advising and assisting through security consultation at the strategic level,” Tolo news reported him as saying.
President Ghani had said last week that he has made an extensive “security plan” after discussing his advisors and experts which will surely change the situation in the coming six months. He also spoke to the US President Biden on July 24 and discussed the plan. “President Biden reassured me that support for the ANDSF will continue. We have confidence that they will protect and defend Afghanistan,” Ghani said.
Acknowledging the existence of a new plan , McKenzie told the media: “We had very good dialogue on the government’s defence plan to stabilise the security situation.”
Without giving details, he gave all indications that the US will maintain this capability after the withdrawal, so it’s possible that the US will continue bombing Afghanistan beyond September. He refused to talk about the air strike operations.
In response the Taliban has warned the US that airstrikes in Kandahar and Helmand provinces will have consequences, calling them a violation of the Doha agreement. Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan, Zabihullah Mujahid asserted that ,”We confirm these air strikes and we condemn this in strongest term, it is a clear attack and violation of the Doha deal as they can’t have operations after May.” Mujahid was apparently referring to an agreement between the US and the Taliban clearing the way for the withdrawal of US forces. “If they conduct any operation then they will be responsible for the consequences.”
The US has countered the Taliban’s claim, pointing out that it’s the Taliban which has violated the agreement by maintaining close ties with al-Qaeda and other foreign terrorist organisations in Afghanistan.
According to a latest report released by the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the United Nation Security Council, Al-Qaeda is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the eastern, southern and south-eastern regions and operating under Taliban protection. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K) has moved into other provinces, including Nuristan, Badghis, Sari Pul, Baghlan, Badakhshan, Kunduz and Kabul, where fighters have formed sleeper cells. The group has strengthened its positions in and around Kabul, where it conducts most of its attacks, targeting minorities, activists, government employees and personnel of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces.
afghanistan
The terror organisations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari (KIB), Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari (KIB), Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ETIM are very active and except ISIL-K, all groups are operating under the Taliban.
Even though the US airstrikes have given Afghan forces some tactical advantage and boosted morale, there is no doubt that the Ghani government faces tough days ahead. Afghan security forces are locked in battle with the Taliban militants to reclaim the lost territories and turn the tide. However, the Afghan army can turn the tide if it can successfully and sustainably deploy air power — something that the Taliban lacks.
“We’re actually pretty aggressively pushing aircraft into there,” McKenzie promised. By this month’s end, the Afghan army will get seven UH60 helicopters and four MD 530F gunships and nine Mi-17 helicopters will be handed over before the end of September.
On Saturday, US defence secretary said at the US air force base in Alaska that Afghan military leaders are “committed” and capable of stopping Taliban gains.
“They have the capabilities. They have the capacity to make progress and to really begin to blunt some of the Taliban’s advances, but we’ll see what happens,” he said.
(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)
Large-scale fighting on multiple fronts throughout Afghanistan is still at large as the Taliban claims to have captured 85 per cent….reports Asian Lite News
The next meeting between delegations from the Afghanistan government and the Taliban will take place in the month of August, TOLO News reported on Sunday.
Earlier this month, the first meeting was held in Qatar, during which both sides agreed to continue their meetings and expedite the peace efforts in Afghanistan. This came even as delegates failed to reach a deal on a ceasefire.
Citing sources in the Doha negotiating teams, the TOLO reported said that efforts will be made through these meetings to achieve a framework for peace talks, keeping the US drawdown deadline of August 31 in mind.
“It will be helpful if an authoritative team attends the meeting this time, but if the delegation has less authority, it will not have an outcome,” said former Taliban commander Sayed Akbar Agha.
Large-scale fighting on multiple fronts throughout Afghanistan is still at large as the Taliban claims to have captured 85 per cent.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) Chief General Kenneth McKenzie on Sunday said Washington will continue to support Afghan security forces through airstrikes in combating the terrorist group.
Addressing a presser in Kabul, General McKenzie said, “The United States will continue to carry out airstrikes to support Afghan forces facing attack from the Taliban.”
“The United States has increased airstrikes in support of Afghan forces over the last several days and we’re prepared to continue this heightened level of support in the coming weeks if the Taliban continue their attacks,” McKenzie said.
Meanwhile, Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah, in a recent interview said the conflict in Afghanistan has no military solution.
“Since we think that peaceful settlement is much, much better option than the continuation of the war, we will continue to make these efforts,” Abdullah said.
Experts believe that the efforts in Doha for peace talks should be expedited and it should not take more time.
Over 30 journalists killed
At least 30 journalists and media workers have been killed, manhandled, and wounded by terrorists in Afghanistan since 2021, while many of them were also threatened by government officials, according to a report by an Afghanistan non profit Nai.
Recently, two journalists including one female were also killed in a bomb explosion in Kabul, even local journalists have complained against government officials not providing the required information in Afghan’s Balkh province, The Khaama Press reported citing the Nai report.
Members of the Afghan security force take part in an operation in Jawzjan province, Afghanistan. (Xinhua_Mohammad Jan Aria_IANS)
A journalist of the Killid group was also prevented to cover an incident in police district three of Kabul city and was threatened by Kabul Police while another journalist for Afghan Peace Publication Watch was insulted by government officials, the news agency reported.
Also, 26 employees of Afghanistan’s Bawar Media were laid off in northern Balkh province and four employees were sacked by Vice-president Amrullah Saleh for sharing information with media outlets.
Nai media has condemned the mass firing of media workers and termed it as “against” the labour laws in the country.
Meanwhile, a coalition of US news organisations has also written two different letters to the US president Joe Biden and leaders in the house of representatives, urging them to grant special immigration visas to Afghan journalists and support staff. (ANI)
The PLA will increasingly have to bear the burden of ensuring the survival of the Durand Line, and of assisting the military in Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan to maintain control and in the latter case, be assisted in controlling the entire country, writes Prof. Madhav Nalapat
Consequences that are unexpected are not rare in situations where decisive action is taken by a state to enforce its own view of interests on others who may be unwilling to go along with such an exclusivist and usually expansionist view. In 1979, the United States under President Carter began the (eventually successful) process of turning its occupation of Afghanistan into quicksand for the Soviet Union. The 39th President of the United States chose a brilliant strategic mind rather than a denizen of the Washington establishment as his National Security Advisor.
The NSA, Zbigniew Brzezinski, was focused on weakening the Soviet Union, and in such a task, had the backing of his boss. The only problem was that in his hurry to secure quick results, rather than launch the process using the “frog in hot water” method, whereby the target takes time to understand the deadly impact of the change in circumstances deliberately (if covertly) created by the rival power, the NSA went in for what he believed (together with the Pentagon and the CIA) would be a quick fix. This was to outsource the operational aspects of the process to the Pakistan military, which was in the process of being converted into a Wahhabi force by Chief Martial Law Administrator of Pakistan, Zia-ul-Haq.
The army thereafter empowered not the overwhelming majority of Pashtuns, who were fiercely nationalist, but the extremist fringe, which placed the dissemination and practice of the Wahhabi variant of an overall moderate and modernising faith as a higher priority than nationalism per se. This was to the liking of Army Headquarters at Rawalpindi, as there was a constant apprehension in them that any boost to Pashtun nationalism may result in the Pashtuns within Pakistan seeking to unify with their kin across the border to create a separate and independent Pashtunistan. This had been the dream of several Pashtun leaders in the past, including Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, who during much of his long life (1890-1988) was known as the Frontier Gandhi for his long association with Mahatma Gandhi.
Perhaps as a panic reaction to the seizure of power by Imam Khomeini in Iran and the storming of the Mecca mosque by radicals in 1979, the Wahhabi variant everywhere was put on steroids by the backing of the US and its European allies. What needed. to be done was to double down on strengthening the mosern and moderate strain that is at the heart of Islam, rather than the reverse. This “historical blunder” has had severe global consequences. Across the Middle East and elsewhere, including in the Indian subcontinent, the Wahabi variant was generously funded and supported, resulting in the aborting of efforts at ensuring that the Muslim Ummah (or global community) be encouraged to evolve in a modern and moderate manner rather than be sought to get plunged into exclusivism and religious intolerance, neither of which was ever part of the message of the Quran.
These teachins were ignored, and new and misleading Wahabi-Khomeinist interpretations were popularised, with effects far beyond Afghanistan. In Pakistan, the Wahabi variant found its champion in Zia-ul-Haq, who as a consequence of his intervention in Afghanistan was forgiven for deposing in 1977. Zia subsequently hanged the elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, Z.A. Bhutto, in 1979. to silence from West Europe and North America, the presumed bastions of human freedoms.
BIDEN PIVOTS BACK TO EUROPE
Not that the fast-tracking of the Wahhabi variant was the only policy followed by the US that subsequently proved unwise. The US had (especially since the Atlantic Charter was signed by President Roosevelt and a less enthusiastic Prime Minister Churchill in 1941) been welcomed by freedom fighters in Asia as being different from those countries in Europe that had for centuries oppressed countries across t
he world to enrich themselves. Roosevelt believed in this process, and saw the Charter as a beacon of freedom across the world, while Churchill (determined to hold onto the British Empire after the war with Germany and Japan) regarded the freedoms listed in the document as being valid only for those of European extraction.
On the death of Roosevelt in 1945, his successor Harry S. Truman reverted to the policy of standing by the European colonial powers rather than with those fighting for freedom from their colonial oppressors, who had held on to most of their colonies even after the war had ended in victory for the Allies. The impact of this on US goodwill in the colonised countries was immense, and gave an advantage to the Soviet Union (with its ironical championing of the very freedoms that were being denied to Soviet satellites in East Europe) across Asia, Africa and South America. Among the disasters that ensued from backing a colonial power (in this case, France) against a liberation movement in Vietnam, the US entered the Vietnam war on the wrong side, immeasurably strengthening the communist rather than the ideology of democracy within the Vietnamese people, who saw the US as stepping into the shoes of the French in 1955 and therefore needing to be defeated. This finally happened in 1975 at immense human cost.
Old habits die hard, and when US President George H.W. Bush invaded Iraq in 1990 and his son followed suit in 2003, both made sure to ensure that Britain was prominent in the allied coalition. The incongruity of claiming to fight for freedom for the Iraqis while having the armed forces of the former colonial power as the primary partner did not strike either father or son, so deeply was the Atlanticist logic of the primacy of European interests over other comers embedded in the strategic culture of the US, something which began to substantively change only during the “pivot to Asia” from Europe of President Barack Obama, especially during his second term. The Europeanist line is witnessing a revival under President Joe Biden, who seems to have forgotten several of the lessons he ought to have picked up during the latter period of the Obama presidency, including on Cuba and Iran.
XI’S GRANDIOSE AMBITION
Unlike Biden, who remains fixated on Europe (excluding the Russian part) rather than on the entirety of the Eurasian landmass, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping is aware that it is the Indo-Pacific and the corresponding Eurasian landmass that will be crucial in determining the outcome of the battle of systems between the US and the PRC. Following in the path of Mao, who saw the PLA as by far the most important instrument of control by the CCP on China, Xi has placed the military at the heart of his drive to achieve pre-eminence within the Indo-Pacific, and the corollary (together with Putin) of achieving the same result within the entire Eurasian landmass. The hostility of the UK, France and Germany in particular to integrating the Russian Federation into the comity of US allies (because of the severe dilution of their primacy that this would result in) has ensured that repeated efforts, first by Gorbachev and later Yeltsin, for Russia to break into the US-led alliance alongside Europe have failed.
After having witnessed the sitting President of the US call him a killer in public, it should come as no surprise that the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir V. Putin, has seen no option other than to accept the status of the junior partner in the Sino-Russian alliance that he has fashioned together with Xi Jinping. The consequences of such a close pairing (including, and especially within) the military and security establishment of both countries on the balance of power in Eurasia seem not have been factored in by Biden, Merkel, Macron and Johnson in their geopolitical strategies to the comprehensive extent that they have been taken into account by the CCP General Secretary. Unlike his three immediate predecessors, who kept from openly displaying their Mao-inspired vision of the PRC as the primary geopolitical force in the world , CCP General Secretary Xi has made no secret of this ambition. It has been out in the open since 2013, with those who deny the reality finding fewer and fewer places to hide.
afghanistan
XI’S OVERREACH
Xi has certainly great confidence in his capability of effecting such a tectonic shift in global geopolitics, although not yet sure of exactly how long this will take. This is a switch that he seeks to incorporate into his legacy, which is among the reasons why he has ensured that the two-term limit followed since Jiang Zemin has been discarded. Another is the belief that the CCP contains within its 93 million members none other than himself with the capability of ensuring that Beijing replace Washington as the centrepoint of global influence and authority.
Such a belief may be leading the present CCP General Secretary into actions that may have the same consequences for him as a similar overreach accompanied by imperfect tactics led in many instances for the US and some of its allies. The “Arab Spring” of 2011 led to a Wahhabi Winter within the next few years for several of the countries affected by the popular discontent against oppressive regimes and deteriorating economic circumstances, thanks to the way in which a much smaller but better organised force is often able to take control of a popular movement. This was, for example, the case of the Khomeinist takeover of the discontent in Iran against the excesses of the Pahlavis during 1975 to the toppling of the dynasty in 1979, or to the Bolshevik seizure of power in post-Tsarist Russia in 1917.
In the linked destinies of Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular, the confidence in his infallibility and in the power of the PRC to ensure that its targets be quickly neutralised, may have created for Xi the same quagmire that Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) General Secretary Leonid I. Brezhnev entered into when he ordered Soviet forces to occupy Afghanistan in 1979, finally leading to their withdrawal in defeat in 1989. Xi has taken forward in an unprecedented boosting of (a) the CCP’s reliance on not the people or elected government in Pakistan but the Pakistan military to carry out Beijing’s wishes and (b) following that logic by in effect backing the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban.
During its own Afghan war, the US outsourced much of it to GHQ Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistan army, and to its proxies. Xi is doing the same now, the difference being that the people of Afghanistan know from 1996 to 2001 what rule by the Taliban means. Whatever the infirmities of the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul (and these are more than a few), the people of Afghanistan, especially women and youth, know that it is preferable to rule by the Taliban. Several of the Afghan army commanders chosen by the US (acting on the recommendation of the Pakistan military) to embed within the Afghan National Army (ANA) gave up without a fight, aware that they (as distinct from most of the men under their command) faced no threat from the takeover of control by the Taliban.
This was similar to what took place in Iraq during the period 2013-15, when Iraqi commanders inserted into the armed forces of the government in Baghdad (substantially on the advice of nearby powers who wished at the time to see the fall of the Baghdad government by all available means) by NATO deserted without a fight to ISIS, giving that terrorist entity control of large swathes of Iraq. By 2014, the consequences of some of its personnel choices began to get clearer to the Pentagon, and subsequently, a US bombing campaign ensured that ISIS was reduced in size, finally to insignificance at least in terms of territory.
Given the far better appreciation of ground reality within the US military and security establishment than was the case in the past, it seems only a matter of time before President Biden will understand the risks to US security involved in removing not just ground troops (which is a necessary decision) but close air support as well in Afghanistan, which would be a disaster. US air support to an Afghan National Army with its weapons stockpile replenished by the US and also countries that have a significant interest in keeping Afghanistan away from extremist control such as India, would ensure the rollback of the Taliban.
Members of the Afghan security force take part in an operation in Jawzjan province, Afghanistan. (Xinhua_Mohammad Jan Aria_IANS)
CHINA GAMBLES ITS FUTURE
This would be counter to the calculations of General Secretary Xi, who has placed his entire wager on the takeover of Afghanistan to the Taliban so as to further what he regards as the PRC interest there. It would also run counter to the immense majority of the Afghan population, who loathe a return to Taliban rule. Across those parts of Afghanistan where quislings within the Afghan military surrendered to the Taliban, much of the men under their command have begun using their guns together with the local people in order to resist the Taliban.
The 3-month ceasefire so generously offered by the Taliban to the Afghan military is for that exclusivist force to be enabled to devote its full attention towards quelling these local rebellions against the proxies and allies of the Peoples Republic of China and its “all-weather” ally, the Pakistan military (as distinct from the country or its people). Should this offer of a temporary ceasefire be accepted by the Ghani government, it would have the same disastrous consequences as the (Trump-ordered) release by President Ghani of 5,000 Taliban fighters from Afghan prisons has had for security in Afghanistan. The 2020 agreement entered into by the Trump administration at Doha was a disaster for not simply Kabul but Washington as well, and it is a matter of speculation as to why Trump’s Afghan policy has been so completely adopted by President Biden.
Across not just the military and the security establishment, awareness is increasing that the Trump-era policy of appeasement of the Taliban was an error of substantial magnitude, and which could lead in brief years to another 9/11 type of attack on the US homeland. Xi has dug himself in too deeply to retreat from the strategy favoured by the Pakistan military, for him to move out from the deepening predicament that this policy is causing for the PRC. Unlike President Biden, who while being obsessed with the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential elections, nevertheless still has the possibility of walking away from further errors, not by bringing in more US forces but by providing close air support, logistics and intelligence to the Afghan National Army. This could be done through Central Asia and possibly through the road and rail link being developed in Chabahar port by the Iran and India.
Unlike Trump, who was stubborn in clinging on to even obvious mistakes, Biden has shown a capacity to look at alternative views and to reconsider policy. Such flexibility is in line with the best practices of a genuine democracy, which the US is and looks set to remain. Given such a policy reset, Xi may find that his gamble on relying on the Taliban and its Pakistan army facilitators for carrying forward the PRC agenda of tapping into the natural resources of Afghanistan is likely to fail. While the Ghani government may be outwardly respectful to Xi, its own intelligence service is documenting the manner in which the Pakistan military (with assistance from the PLA) is boosting the capacities of the Taliban against the government in Kabul. Unlike some “experts” including in India and the US, Ghani will be fully aware that the Taliban entering his government in Kabul will be akin to the National Socialists under Hitler entering a “coalition” government in Berlin in 1933. That very soon went the Nazi way, and to the liquidation of alternative political and other forces, and similar will be the fate of groups not part of the Taliban network, were that entity to ever enter the national government in Kabul.
CIVIL WAR IS A REALITY
Even more worrisome for PRC interests will be the fate of a civil war in Afghanistan, a process that is already ongoing, on the domestic situation in Pakistan. The majority of Pashtuns in Pakistan, especially youth and women, are opposed to the outsize influence of extremist clerics under the umbrella of the Pakistan army. A similar situation prevails in those parts of Afghanistan that are presently under the occupation of the Taliban and the Pakistan and other auxiliaries who support them.
The majority of Pashtuns wish to be free of the Taliban and the clerics favoured by them, and weapons are already flowing from the country’s porous borders to ensure that they do not get overpowered by a militia backed by Pakistan and China, and which seems to be continuing to get appeased by the Biden administration, at least for now. Both in Pakistan against the control of the Punjabi-dominated and controlled Pakistan military and in Afghanistan against the Taliban and its Sino-Pakistan friends and auxiliaries, unrest is brewing and increasingly breaking out into violent opposition to the Taliban and its favourite clerics. As with the developing revolt againat rule by the ethno-centric generals in Pakistan.
The CCP General Secretary already deep into his commitment to the Pakistan military and its Taliban ally in the Af-Pak region. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is meeting with rising resistance along the way from the border of Xinjiang to the Indian Ocean through Pakistan, and this will increase. Neither India nor any other country can control the desire for freedom of the Pashtun people, who for too long have been under the thumb of an ethno-centric military and its superpower ally across both sides of the Durand Line, which Pashtuns point out lapsed in 1992. The PLA will increasingly have to bear the burden of ensuring the survival of the Durand Line, and of assisting the military in Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan to maintain control and in the latter case, be assisted in controlling the entire country.
Leonid Brezhnev lasted long enough to understand the folly of his occupation of Afghanistan, and Xi Jinping is slowly having to come to terms with the inevitable consequences of militarily and otherwise taking the side of extremists and exclusivists against the majority of the people in both Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. The bog filled with quicksand has been entered still more deeply by China, and increasingly, there seems no way out to leave the quagmire without a severe loss of face that is politically impossible for General Secretary Xi to countenance. Especially given the trajectory of the manner in which he has consolidated internal power in China and sought to expand PRC control over more land, sea, mindspace and space.
Civilian casualties have increased 47 per cent in the last six months, the UN said in a report
Resulting from a spike in violence in May that corresponded with the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the civilian casualties reported in the country for the first half of 2021 have reached record levels, the UN said in a report released on Monday, the Tolo News reported.
The UN has warned that without significant de-escalation, 2021 will witness the highest ever number of documented civilian casualties in a single year since UNAMA recording began.
The UN report said that 1,659 civilians were killed and 3,254 others were wounded, which is a 47 percent increase compared to the same period in 2020.
Of serious concern is the acute rise in the number of civilians killed and injured in the period from May 1, with almost as many civilian casualties in the May-June period as recorded in the entire preceding four months, according to the report.
The number of civilian casualties during May and June –783 killed and 1,609 wounded–is the highest for those months since UNAMA began its systematic documentation in 2009.
The period January-April 2021 saw 2,791 civilian casualties (876 killed and 1,915 injured), said the UN.
“I implore the Taliban and Afghan leaders to take heed of the conflict’s grim and chilling trajectory and its devastating impact on civilians. The report provides a clear warning that unprecedented numbers of Afghan civilians will perish and be maimed this year if the increasing violence is not stemmed,” said Deborah Lyons, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan.
The UN envoy, who is also the head of UNAMA, called on the Taliban and Afghan leaders to “intensify your efforts at the negotiating table, stop the Afghan against Afghan fighting” and to “protect the Afghan people and give them hope for a better future.”
“The pursuit of a military solution will only increase the suffering of the Afghan people,” the report said.
The UN urged the parties to follow their obligations under international law to protect civilians.
The report noted that what is“particularly shocking” and of “deep concern” is that women, boys and girls made up “close to half of all civilian casualties in the first half of 2021,” it said.
“Comprising 46 percent of all civilian casualties, 32 percent were children – 1,682 in total (468 killed and 1,214 injured) and 14 percent were women – 727 in total (219 killed and 508 injured),” the report said, adding: “It is sickening to report that more women and more children were killed and wounded than ever before recorded by UNAMA for the first half of any calendar year.”
“Anti-Government Elements (AGEs) were responsible for 64 percent of the total civilian casualties: 39 percent by Taliban, nearly nine percent by Daesh and 16 percent by undetermined AGEs,” the report said.
“Pro-Government Forces (PGFs) were responsible for 25 percent of civilian casualties: 23 percent by Afghan national security forces, and two percent by pro-Government armed groups or undetermined PGFs,” according to the report.
UNAMA attributed 11 percent of all civilian casualties to “crossfire” during ground engagements where the exact party responsible could not be determined and other incident types, including unattributable unexploded ordnance/explosive remnants of war.
UNAMA is also concerned about the “increasing number of reports of killing, ill-treatment, persecution and discrimination in communities affected by the current fighting and its aftermath,” the report said, adding that it is “particularly important, especially during times of heightened conflict, that all parties respect the human rights and dignity of people and prevent such abuses and violations.”
Over the past few weeks, Afghanistan has witnessed a surge in violence as the Taliban has intensified its offensive against Afghan forces…reports Asian Lite News
Afghanistan on Sunday called on the international community, human rights agencies, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) to cooperate with the Afghan government in preventing the Taliban’s organised atrocities and help in prosecution of the perpetrators.
According to an Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement, the country welcomed the recent Human Rights Watch and other verified independent sources’ report on documenting the Taliban’s violence and crimes, and strongly condemned these reprehensible crimes.
The reports by verified independent resources and media indicate that the Taliban forces perpetrate in areas under their control unpardonable and prosecutable crimes, including illegal arrests, arbitral killings, torturing civilians, forced marriages, and violation of basic human rights, particularly women’s rights.
Afghanistan government, appreciating independent verified international agencies’ efforts in confirming the Taliban’s non-compliance to their international commitments and the Doha Peace Agreement, stresses the need to convene an extraordinary meeting of the Human Rights Council and dispatching a fact-finding delegation to assess and follow up on the Taliban’s violations and crimes against humanity, read the statement.
Over the past few weeks, Afghanistan has witnessed a surge in violence as the Taliban has intensified its offensive against Afghan forces and civilians with the complete pullback of foreign forces just a few weeks away.
Earlier, local media has reported that the Taliban have taken more than 300 people into custody and have detained them in unidentified locations.
A group of gunmen reportedly killed “over 100 civilians” in Spin Boldak district of Kandahar province, TOLO News reported on Thursday citing sources.
The Afghan Interior Ministry confirmed the report, blaming the Taliban for the “murder of civilians.”
“The brutal terrorists on the order of their Punjabi bosses (Pakistan) ambushed the homes of the innocent Afghans in certain areas of Spin Boldak, looted the homes and martyred 100 innocent people,” said Mirwais Stanekzai, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior. (ANI)
Report says militant outfit operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz provinces
Al Qaeda is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the eastern, southern and southeastern regions, says a United Nations report prepared for the Security Council.
The twenty-eighth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, submitted to the council this week, contains the latest information on ISIL (Daesh), Al Qaeda and their affiliates, the Dawn reported.
The team has been established under a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution and its reports are printed in all official languages of the world body.
The report notes that despite a US-Taliban peace deal, signed in Doha in February last year, the security situation in Afghanistan “remains fragile, with uncertainty surrounding the peace process and a risk of further deterioration”.
Report says militant outfit operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz provinces
Referring to the militant group’s weekly newsletter Thabat, the UN report points out that Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz provinces.
Since the death of its leader Asim Umar in 2019, AQIS has been led by Osama Mahmood, who is not listed in UN documents for terrorists but was the group’s spokesperson before he was elevated to the chief slot.
Asim Umar was originally from India and spent years in Miramshah, a former militant stronghold in erstwhile Fata, before moving to Afghanistan.
The UN report says that AQIS consists mainly of Afghan and Pakistani nationals, but also individuals from Bangladesh, India and Myanmar. On March 30, AQIS commander Dawlat Bek Tajiki was also killed by Afghan forces in Gyan district of Paktika province.
The UN report notes that Ayman al-Zawahiri, who leads AQIS’s parent organisation Al Qaeda, is assessed by UN member states to be alive but ailing in Afghanistan. Sayf al-Adl, his most likely successor, reportedly remains in Iran.
“Member states differ as to what al-Adl’s options would be if he was called upon to succeed al-Zawahiri, but most assess that he would have to move and that basing himself in Afghanistan might not be an option,” the report adds.
In its report on Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, the UN team warns that TTP “continues to pose a threat to the region with the unification of splinter groups and increasing cross-border attacks”.
“TTP has increased its financial resources from extortion, smuggling and taxes. According to one member state, Mufti Khalid, one of the leaders of TTP, was killed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar in an internal dispute over resource allocation in Kunar province, Afghanistan, in May,” the report adds.
“The threat from organised individuals planning complex attacks remains,” warns the UN report, adding that in February this year 14 people were arrested in Denmark and Germany for planning attacks with explosive chemicals.
Authorities in France arrested individuals of Chechen and Pakistani origin with profiles like the individuals who had perpetrated or planned attacks in France last year. They were not found to be acting under direct orders from ISIL or Al Qaeda
leadership, but were inspired by propaganda and local community members who promoted radical ideology. Two cells consisting of individuals of Chechen origin were dismantled in eastern France in April and May this year.
The team writes that in its efforts to resurge, ISIL-K has prioritised the recruitment and training of new supporters and its leaders “hope to attract intransigent Taliban and other militants” who reject the US-Taliban agreement. They also want to recruit fighters from Syria, Iraq and other conflict zones.
Estimates of the strength of ISIL-K range widely, with one UN member state reporting between 500 and 1,500 fighters and another stating that it may rise to as many as 10,000 over the medium term. Another member state stressed that ISIL-K was largely underground and clandestine. Its leader Shahab al-Muhajir cooperates with Sheikh Tamim, head of the al-Sadiq office. Tamim and his office are tasked by the ISIL core with overseeing the network connecting ISIL-K with ISIL presences in the wider region.
The UN monitors warn that a Central Asian group called Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari (KIB) receives financial support in Afghanistan through hawala channels from its leadership in Idlib. This incentivises the Afghan affiliate to grow its numbers and undertake more high-profile attacks using suicide bombers. KIB leader Dilshod Dekhanov, an Uzbek national, recently requested that the Taliban leadership unite all Central Asian groups in Afghanistan under his leadership.
Other Central Asian groups, such as Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, stated that they would support unification only under the leadership of Ilimbek Mamatov, the leader of Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) who enjoys significant authority among Central Asian fighters.
“The Taliban have yet to rule on the matter but has reduced its financial allowances to the groups to a level that they consider insufficient,” the UN report says.
In recent months, however, the Taliban have involved the Central Asian groups in its expanding combat operations in the north. IJG participates in operations in Imam Sahib district of Kunduz province, providing expertise in military tactics and manufacture of improvised explosive devices.
It said the security situation remains fragile with uncertainty surrounding the peace process and a risk of further deterioration..reports Asian Lite News
The United Nations has warned in a new report that the threat from terror groups such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda is expanding in many places in Afghanistan.
It said the security situation remains fragile with uncertainty surrounding the peace process and a risk of further deterioration.
The report by the UN Security Council, published on Thursday, said that despite territorial, leadership, manpower and financial losses during 2020 in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, Daesh’s Khorasan branch, or ISIL-K, has moved into other provinces of Afghanistan, including Nuristan, Badghis, Sar-e-Pul, Baghlan, Badakhshan, Kunduz and Kabul, where the fighters have formed sleeper cells, Tolo News reported.
The report said that the group has strengthened its positions in and around Kabul, where it conducts most of its attacks, targeting minorities, activists, government employees and personnel of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.
The report said that most recently, Daesh had claimed responsibility for the brutal attack of June 8, wherein 10 humanitarian deminers working with HALO Trust in Baghlan Province were killed and 16 others were injured.
Tolo News said that in its efforts to resurge, the ISIL-K has prioritised the recruitment and training of new supporters; its leaders also hope to attract intransigent Taliban and other militants who reject the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the US and the Taliban, and to recruit fighters from the Syrian Arab Republic, Iraq and other conflict zones.
The report stated that the estimates of the strength of Daesh’s Khorasan branch range widely, with one member state reporting between 500 and 1,500 fighters and another stating that it may rise to as many as 10,000 over the medium term.
“One member state stressed that ISIL-K was largely underground and clandestine,” the report said., adding: “Its leader, Shahab al-Muhajir, alias Sanaullah, cooperates with Sheikh Tamim, head of the al-Sadiq office.”
The report said that Tamim and his office are tasked by the Daesh core group to oversee the network connecting the Khorasan branch with Daesh presences in the wider region.
The UN report said that as reported by the UN Monitoring Team in its 12th report to the Security Council Committee established pursuant to Resolution 1988 (2011), Al-Qaeda is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the eastern, southern and south-eastern regions.
The report said that Al-Qaeda’s weekly Thabat newsletter reports on its operations inside Afghanistan.
Tolo News said that the Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimroz provinces.
Since the death of Asim Umar in 2019, AQIS has been led by Osama Mahmood, the report said, adding that the group consists mainly of Afghan and Pakistani nationals, as also individuals from Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.
On March 30, AQIS commander Dawlat Bek Tajiki (alias Abu Mohammad al-Tajiki) was killed by Afghan forces in Gyan district of Paktika province.
“Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is assessed by the member states to be alive but ailing in Afghanistan. SayfAl Adl, his most likely successor, is reported to remain in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the report stated.
The member states differ as to what Al Adl’s options would be if he is called upon to succeed al-Zawahiri, but most assess that he would have to move as basing himself in Afghanistan might not be an option, the report said.
The leadership succession calculations of Al-Qaeda are complicated by the peace process in Afghanistan where, under the Doha agreement of February 2020, the Taliban is committed to suppressing any international terrorist threat, the report said, but added that it is unclear whether Sayf-Al Adl would be able to travel to Afghanistan to take up the position of the leader of Al-Qaeda.
The report mentioned that some member states point to his history of living and operating from Africa and assess that he might choose to base himself there.
The report also said that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, faces financial difficulties and a Taliban that is less accommodating than it used to be, Tolo News said.
The communique also called on all parties to reduce violence and protect civilians, respecting their obligations under international humanitarian law….reports Asian Lite News
The United States, the European Union and NATO have released a joint communique outlining five key elements for the future government of Afghanistan in order to be supported by the international community.
The countries in their discussion on Afghanistan said that they are closely monitoring the situation in the country and called for a halt in the fighting stating that the conflict does not have a military solution, The Khaama Press reported citing the US-Europe Communique on Afghanistan.
Special Representatives and Special Envoys of the US, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, Norway, and the UK met in Rome on July 22 to discuss the situation in Afghanistan and the developments in peace negotiations after the fresh round of talks in Doha between Taliban and the High Peace Council for Reconciliation led by Abdullah-Abdullah.
The communique also called on all parties to reduce violence and protect civilians, respecting their obligations under international humanitarian law.
The US and EU nations called for an immediate ceasefire. They appealed to the Taliban and the Afghan government to sit down and work out a negotiated settlement.
They also urged the Taliban to reduce violence, uphold their commitments to protect Afghanistan’s infrastructure, protect civilians and cooperate on humanitarian assistance, particularly as the Afghan people suffer acutely from the effects of COVID-19 and drought, in addition to violence.
The five elements of the joint communique include inclusive governance; the right to elect political leaders; protections for human rights, including rights of women, youth, and minorities; commitments on counter-terrorism, including to ensure that Afghanistan does not again serve as a safe haven for terrorists; and adherence to international law, including international humanitarian law.
Taliban slams US airstrikes
The Taliban on Saturday slammed the US airstrikes in the Afghan provinces of Kandahar and Helmand, as a violation of the Doha agreement.
The airstrikes carried out on Thursday “would lead to consequences”, Pajhwok News quoted Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, as saying in a statement.
“American occupation forces carried out airstrikes in Kandahar and Helmand, causing casualties to civilians and some mujahideen,” the Taliban said the statement.
While denouncing the strikes as barbaric, the militant group slammed them as a clear violation of the agreement between the US and the Taliban.
“(President) Ashraf Ghani recently made an announcement that he has planned major operations in the next six months,” the statement added.
During the period, the outfit said, responsibility for all military developments would fall on the leaders of the Ghani administration, the report said.
Mujahid said the fighters would defend areas under their control.
The insurgents would not remain in a defensive posture if the government forces insisted on war, he warned.
Under the withdrawal deal between the Taliban and the administration of former US President Donald, all foreign troops were to leave Afghanistan by May 2021.
But in April, President Joe Biden said all US troops would be brought home by September 11, a decision that drew strong criticism from the Taliban. (ANI/IANS)
The advisory said special attention is drawn to members of the Indian media travelling to Afghanistan to cover events through ground reports….reports Asian Lite News
The embassy of India in Afghanistan on Saturday reiterated the June 29 security advisory for Indian nationals in the country in view of escalating violence, amid the withdrawal of US military troops.
The advisory asks Indians visiting, staying and working in Afghanistan to exercise the utmost caution with regard to their security and avoid all types of non-essential travel in view of a rising number of incidents of violence in various parts of the country.
In an advisory, the embassy said the security situation in Afghanistan remains “dangerous” in certain provinces and that terror groups have carried out a series of complex attacks, including targeting civilians, adding that Indian nationals additionally face a “serious threat” of abduction.
“It is recommended that all types of non-essential movements be avoided. Movements especially during peak commuting hours should also be avoided. While traveling on roads, maintain distance from possible targets like military convoys, vehicles of government ministries/ offices, high ranking officials, law enforcement agencies, and avoid visiting crowded markets, shopping complexes, mandis, restaurants, and other public places,” it said.
The advisory said special attention is drawn to members of the Indian media travelling to Afghanistan to cover events through ground reports.
“As recent tragic events showed, it is essential that all Indian press-persons covering events on the ground establish contact with the Public Affairs & Security Wing of this Embassy for a personalized briefing including specific advice for the locale they are traveling to,” the advisory said referring to the recent killing of photojournalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Danish Siddique in Afghanistan.
“This will not only help media persons make a better assessment of the risks involved but also make it easier for the Embassy to render speedy assistance if needed,” it said.
Night curfew imposed
Afghan authorities on Saturday imposed a night curfew across 31 provinces across the country in an attempt to curb surging violence.
People will not be allowed to get out of their homes from 10 pm to 4 am except for emergency, while Kabul, eastern Nangarhar Province, and the northern Panjsher provinces have been kept out of the new decree, The Khaama Press reported citing the Interior Ministry of Afghanistan.
The Interior Ministry also said that most of the “terror activities” are carried out during the night and that had led them to impose such unprecedented limitations.
Deputy spokesperson of Afghan Interior Ministry Ahamd Zia Zia has also asked people in 31 provinces to cooperate with the Afghan Forces and abide by the rules of night curfew, The Khaama Press reported.
Taliban now control about half of the 419 district centers in Afghanistan. As the Taliban seize more territory in the country, the security forces are consolidating their positions to protect key population centres, including Kabul. (ANI)
