European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni speaks at the 2022 Autumn Economic Forecast press conference in Brussels, Belgium, Nov. 11, 2022. (Xinhua/Zheng Huansong/IANS)
The forecast projects real GDP growth in both the EU and euro area at 0.3 per cent — well below the 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent expected in the previous forecast from July…reports Asian Lite News
European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni warned that the outlook for next year has “weakened significantly”, and that most European Union (EU) countries will be in recession in the fourth quarter of this year.
The EU economy is now “at a turning point” Gentiloni said while addressing a press conference in Brussels on Friday shortly after the European Commission announced that it had slashed its forecast for economic growth next year.
The European Commission’s autumn forecast predicted falling economic output in the last three months of this year and the first months of 2023, reports Xinhua news agency.
Elevated uncertainty, high energy price pressures, the erosion of households’ purchasing power, a weaker external environment, and tighter financing conditions are expected to tip the EU, the euro area and most member states into recession in the last quarter of 2022.
For 2023 as a whole, the forecast projects real GDP growth in both the EU and euro area at 0.3 per cent — well below the 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent expected in the previous forecast from July.
“The surge in energy prices and rampant inflation are now taking over and we are facing a very difficult period both from a social and economic point of view,” Gentiloni stressed.
“After a surprisingly strong first half of the year, the EU economy lost momentum in the third quarter, and recent survey data point to a contraction for the winter,” he said.
In addition, inflation has continued to rise faster than expected.
Accelerating and broadening price pressures in the first ten months of the year have moved the expected inflation peak to the fourth quarter of this year, and lifted the yearly inflation rate projection to 9.3 per cent in the EU and 8.5 per cent in the euro area.
Inflation is expected to decline in 2023, but to remain high at 7.0 per cent in the EU, and 6.1 per cent in the euro area.
European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the energy and security cooperation between GCC and the EU is “more crucial now than ever”, reports Asian Lite Newsdesk
The cooperation between the European Union (E.U.) and the Arabian Gulf countries in energy and security domains is very crucial as supplies from the Gulf have changed the Europe’s energy landscape, the E.U. foreign policy chief said, adding that “your [Gulf’s] security is our security.”
Josep Borrell, the E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, pointed out that before the Ukrainian crisis, the E.U. was importing 40 percent of its energy supplies from Russia, which was reduced to eight percent later. While looking for other suppliers, the Gulf, especially the UAE, offered the energy supplies, which has been very helpful, said the top diplomat who was on an official visit to the UAE.
In an interview with state news agency WAM in Abu Dhabi, Borrell emphasised that an important part of energy supplies to the E.U. has come from this part of the world, including the UAE. “This has changed the energy landscape of Europe.”
“Energy partnership makes more sense than ever”
Since the current energy supply scenario may continue for years, he noted, “We need to reduce our consumption of gas. We need other suppliers, and we need to continue fighting against climate change at the moment.”
He added that Europe is in a critical moment from an energy point of view.
As COP 27, the UN conference on climate change, is taking place in Egypt and the UAE is hosting the COP 28 next year, “I think our energy partnership makes more sense than ever. You are supplier, we are consumer, but hydrocarbon will not be the energy forever. We need to look for new sources. You have sun. You are investing a lot on new renewables. It is also an important partnership,” the top EU diplomat explained.
The Ukrainian crisis has been a big push for the E.U. to understand the requirement of more renewables, especially the need to develop hydrogen, Borrell revealed.
“We need to look for partners to develop hydrogen, because here you have surface and sun to produce green electricity and green hydrogen,” he pointed out, adding that the current energy crisis has accelerated the green transition in the E.U.
Gulf’s security is E.U. security
The E.U. has a new strategy for more engagement and better partnership with the Gulf countries, the foreign policy chief said.
“They [GCC] have always been very important for us. Not only because they are supplying energy, but the Gulf is becoming a strategic part of the world in the middle of the way between Europe, and South and East Asia.”
As the region is facing a lot of security challenges, “your security is also our security. We want to be a better partner. We have to engage more in order to face the big challenges,” Borrell said referring to the issues such as climate change, migration, security and the new energy landscape that brings both parties closer.
The war in Yemen, instability in Iraq and Syria, and negotiations on Iran nuclear deal are important developments in the wider Middle East, the foreign policy chief explained.
“The whole region is a mosaic of security issues. We want to work together with you to solve some of these problems. The peace between Israel and Palestine needs a strong engagement with the Arab world and the Europeans together,” said Borrell, a Spanish politician who took charge as the E.U. foreign policy chief in 2019.
The EU has also listed members of the Union Election Commission and business representatives of private companies closely connected and supporting the Tatmadaw….reports Asian Lite News
In view of the continuing escalation of violence and grave human rights following the military takeover two years ago, the European Council has adopted the fifth round of restrictive measures.
The new listings target 19 persons and one entity, including the Minister of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations Kan Zaw, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Htun Htun Oo, and high-ranking members of the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and Air Force.
The EU has also listed members of the Union Election Commission and business representatives of private companies closely connected and supporting the Tatmadaw.
“The State Administration Council is also included as it plays a central role in undermining democracy and the rule of law in Myanmar/Burma as well as in actions that threaten the peace, security and stability of the country,” the European Council said in a statement on Tuesday.
Restrictive measures currently apply to a total of 84 individuals and 11 entities. Those designated are subject to an asset freeze and a travel ban, which prevents them from entering or transiting through EU territory. In addition, EU persons and entities are prohibited to make funds available to those listed.
A demonstrator stacks bags on a street as a barricade during a demonstration against the military coup and the detention of civilian leaders in Myanmar(ians)
“Other EU restrictive measures will remain in place: the embargo on arms and equipment and export restrictions on equipment for monitoring communications which might be used for internal repression, the export ban on dual-use goods for use by the military and border guard police, and the prohibition of military training and cooperation with the Tatmadaw,” the statement added.
These measures complement the withholding of EU financial assistance to the government of Myanmar and the freezing of all EU assistance, a tool that might be perceived as a means to legitimise the junta. Two years ago, on November 8, the National League for Democracy obtained overwhelming and incontestable popular support in the general elections in Myanmar/Burma. The civilian government was overthrown by the Myanmar military on 1 February 2021.
Brussels: Flags of the European Union fly outside the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 21, 2021. (Xinhua/Zheng Huansong/IANS)
The EU said it is deeply concerned by the continuing escalation of violence and the evolution towards a protracted conflict which has spread across the country and has regional implications.
The 27-member bloc also condemned the continuing grave human rights violations including torture and sexual and gender-based violence, the continued persecution of civil society, human rights defenders and journalists, attacks on the civilian population, including ethnic and religious minorities, and the destruction of private property by the Myanmar armed The EU said it would continue to strive to bring to justice all those responsible for the human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the wake of the 1 February 2021 coup in Myanmar.
The EU said it reiterates the calls for an immediate cessation of all hostilities, respect of international humanitarian law, and an end to the disproportionate use of force. (ANI)
Most likely, the Ukrainian leader will join the summit in the online format..reports Asian Lite News
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join the G20 upcoming summit in Indonesia’s Bali, Ukrainian state media reported, citing the presidential spokesman Sergii Nykyforov.
“In some format, of course, Volodymyr Zelensky will take part in the G20 summit,” Nykyforov said on Tuesday.
Most likely, the Ukrainian leader will join the summit in the online format, the Spokesman added as quoted by Xinhua news agency report.
The 17th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit, which is scheduled for November 15-16, will focus on the theme “Recover Together, Recover Stronger”.
US-based academic Dr Rajan Menon says recession in the US and a major economic crisis in Europe may occur as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war … Interview by Abhish K Bose
Dr Rajan Menon is the Director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities based in Washington DC. He is also the Emeritus Anna and Bernard Spitzer Chair in Political Science at the City University of New York. He is a Senior Research Scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University and a Global Ethics Fellow at the Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Affairs. He has authored books including ‘ Conflict in Ukraine: The unwinding of the post-cold war order, Energy and conflict in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
In an interview with Asian Lite’s Abhish K. Bose, he discusses the repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Europe and other parts of the world.
Dr Rajan Menon
ABHISH K BOSE: Russian troops are suffering significant losses, and countries across the world are dealing with acute food shortages, a meteoric rise in inflation and other challenges brought in by a severe conflict that has no sign of subsiding soon. What will be the long-term economic ramifications brought about by the war on the economy of Europe?
Rajan Menon: Food prices have actually declined for the past several months, in part due to the grain export agreement between Russia and Ukraine that was mediated by the UN and Turkey in July. But so long as the war continues, food exports from Ukraine could be blocked again. Adding to this western banks’ raising of interest rates and the appreciation of the dollar will increase food import prices, making it especially hard for poor countries. All indicators point to the possibility of the economic situation in Europe and the UK getting worse, and they are already bad. There is technically (DEFINED AS TWO-QUARTERS OF DECLINING GROWTH ) no recession in the US now, but the federal reserves raising of interest rates to tame inflation, now higher than it has been in 40 years, could bring one about, though that remains to be seen.
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Eastern Economic Forum plenary session in Vladivostok, Russia on Sept. 7, 2022. (Kremlin press release/IANS)
ABHISH K BOSE: As per the statistics of the United Nations refugee agency, since February 24th, a third of Ukrainians who number over 41 million, have been forced out of their houses. The UN agency data says that more than 6.6 million Ukrainian refugees have been registered across Europe. What will be the additional burden these migrants cause on the economy of Europe?
Rajan Menon: The recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy and water infrastructure have once again increased refugee flows from Ukraine, and at a time when the countries with substantial numbers of Ukrainian refugees —Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic —are finding it hard to take in more. On top of that, Ukraine’s government, facing electricity and water disruptions have asked Ukrainian refugees not to come back for now. As Europe’s economy gets even worse the refugee burden will become harder to bear.
ABHISH K BOSE: The war and the resultant sanctions which made an adverse impact on the Russian economy thereby restricting Russia’s access to western financial markets are also causing trouble for Russia. The sanctions also restricted Russia from obtaining essential goods and materials. How long Russian economy will take to recover from the aftereffects of the war?
Rajan Menon: It’s impossible to state with any certainty how long Russia’s economy will take to recover . For now , though the sanctions have undoubtedly caused pain, the Russian economy is benefiting from high oil and gas prices and stepped-up imports of Russian and energy by China , India , and Turkey. Energy is critical to Russia’s economy : IT accounted for 45% OF Russia’s state budget in 2021 and close to the same proportion of its total export earnings.
Russia-Ukraine war pictures.(photo: https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy.official)
ABHISH K BOSE: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine global oil prices increased to record heights. What will be the impact the war has on the oil imports of Russia vis a vis the European countries?
Rajan Menon: The European Union ban on Russian oil imports will take effect on DEC 5 but as OF SEPT the EU was still buying about One million barrels of Russian oil per day .For Europe , the much bigger problem is the effects on the slashing of Russian natural gas exports, which provided 40% of Europe’s imports before the war began on FEB 24.
ABHISH K BOSE: According to the reports Putin is facing the biggest challenge in his career since he became the President following the continuation of the war. How long can he pull it off with a debilitating economy and increasing opposition from the international community?
Rajan Menon: No one can answer this question , but the worse Russia fares in the war, the more tenuous Putin’s political position becomes because he owns this war and his fate is tied to it. That said, so far I see no sign of a split within the leaderships nor protests from below (which there have been) that are so large that the Russian government, which has formidable coercive powers , cannot contain.
Dr Rajan Menon
ABHISH K BOSE: What will be the environmental hazards caused as a result of the war? Going by the nature of the war, the environmental imbalances created by the war could be irredeemable. Especially the catastrophic nature of the impact of the war in a highly industrialised country such as Ukraine can create havoc. Please explain your views on this.
Rajan Menon: The war itself will release carbon dioxide and other global warming gases into the air because they are produced when large urban areas suffer massive destruction, which they have in Ukraine. In the long term the energy price surge created by the war may hasten a global move to green energy (though that will take a long time before it amounts to a revolutionary shift), but in the short term countries are, in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, rushing to lok in imports of oil, natural gas and , in the case of India and China , for example, even coal, which , per unit, emits much more CO2 than do oil and natural gas.
ABHISH K BOSE: The war is estimated to cause a heavy impact on the world economy which includes weaker economic growth, stronger inflation and a long-standing assault on the supply chain. What do you think about this?
Rajan Menon: Europe’s economic crisis, the possibility of a recession in the US, and lower -than expected growth rates in China are bound to have knock-on effects on the global economy given that these three areas account for around 45% of global GDP.
The proposal on a digital euro for the EU is scheduled to be adopted in the first quarter of 2023…reports Asian Lite News
The digital euro is inching closer to becoming a reality, with the European Commission (EC) preparing a legislative proposal and raising awareness on the matter, European Union (EU) officials have said.
The conference, held by the EC and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Brussels, focuses on the legislative framework for the digital euro, reports Xinhua news agency.
“The European Commission has been working together with the ECB to respond to the growing demand for online payments,” Valdis Dombrovskis, EC executive vice-president, said at the conference.
“European societies and economies are turning digital quickly,” said Dombrovskis, “this is why we have been discussing a digital euro for some time — with the ECB, public authorities and the private sector”.
The proposal on a digital euro for the EU is scheduled to be adopted in the first quarter of 2023, the EC has said on its website.
It’s necessary for an “efficient and secure payment system in the digital age”, said ECB President Christine Lagarde at the conference, adding that it would also assist in building trust in the monetary system and encouraging innovation.
The digital euro was intended to complement the cash currency, not replace it, and aimed to ensure a fast and secure form of payment, Lagarde added.
The digital currency would be based on a European infrastructure, and therefore strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy, she added.
The meeting on Monday was the first between the two leaders since Sunak took office as UK PM…reports Asian Lite News
On the sidelines of the ongoing UN COP27 summit in Egypt, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on the importance of continuing to drive climate action forward.
The meeting on Monday was the first between the two leaders since Sunak took office last month.
According to a statement from the Downing Street, Sunak and Macron also noted opportunities for the UK and France to collaborate further on the transition to clean energy, including on civil nuclear power.
They also spoke about “the ongoing challenge of illegal migration, stressing the urgency of cracking down on criminal smuggling gangs and committed to continue working together with partners to address the issues in the Channel”, the statement said.
The topics of discussion were the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine and the continued importance of maintaining military and economic support for the defence of Kiev.
France,UK flag.(photo:pixabay.com)
In a tweet after the meeting, the Prime Minister said: “Friends, Partners, Allies… Great to meet with Emmanuel Macron…”
The meeting comes after the the two countries had earlier clashed over several issues, including migrant boat crossings in the Channel; a military pact between Britain, the US and Australia; and Brexit measures involving Northern Ireland.
Controversy also erupted when former Prime Minister Liz Truss, while campaigning for he Conservative leadership race, had said that “jury was still out” on the French President, adding that she would be judging him on “deeds not words”.
This comes after EU President held talks on Sunday with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The main focus of the conversation was on ensuring financial support for Ukraine in the months ahead…reports Asian Lite News
Reiterating solidarity towards war-ravaged Ukraine, European Union is set to propose a substantial financial package of up to EUR 1.5 billion a month to the country which would contribute to covering its financing needs for 2023.
Making the announcement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted, “Good to stay in close touch with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Positive developments: we will propose this week the financial support package for Ukraine in 2023. The EU will be at Ukraine’s side for as long as it takes.”
This comes after EU President held talks on Sunday with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The main focus of the conversation was on ensuring financial support for Ukraine in the months ahead.
President von der Leyen informed President Zelenskyy that she would this week propose a substantial financial package from the EU of up to EUR 1.5 billion a month, totalling up to EUR 18 billion, which would contribute significantly to cover Ukraine’s financing needs for 2023.
Both leaders recognised the importance of ensuring predictable and regular funding of essential state functions. “The support in the form of highly concessional long-term loans, with coverage of the interest costs, would also work to support Ukraine’s reforms and its path towards EU membership,” the European Commission said in a statement.
President von der Leyen confirmed ongoing work by the EU to continue to provide immediate humanitarian support to Ukraine, particularly over the winter. She reiterated that the EU is in it for the long haul in its support for Ukraine.
The leaders also discussed the importance of ensuring Ukraine’s agricultural exports can reach the world. In addition to full support for the UN’s efforts to reach an agreement with Russia on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the leaders also discussed plans to expand the capacities of the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes, which have so far been used to transport the great majority of Ukrainian agricultural and non-agricultural exports since the start of the Russian war.
Finally, the leaders discussed strengthening sanctions, as well as the “negative role played by Iran’s support for Russia’s aggression” and how to respond.
Black smoke rising from a military airport in Chuguyev, near Kharkiv, in Ukraine. (Yonhap/IANS)
Klitschko said that while authorities are doing “everything” to keep the lights on and water flowing, he was ensuring preparations were in place for different scenarios…reports Asian Lite News
Mayor of Kiev, Vitaliy Klitschko has warned of possible evacuations in case the Ukrainian capital suffers a total power outage in the wake of Russian attacks on the country’s critical infrastructure.
In a televised address on Sunday, the Mayor said that Russian President Vladimir Putin “doesn’t need us Ukrainians. He needs territory, he needs Ukraine without us”, the BBC reported.
“That’s why everything that is happening now (strikes on infrastructure) is genocide. His task is for us to die, to freeze, or to make us flee our land so that he can have it,” the former heavyweight boxer was quoted as saying.
Klitschko said that while authorities are doing “everything” to keep the lights on and water flowing, he was ensuring preparations were in place for different scenarios.
Kiev’s three million residents should make arrangements to stay with friends or relatives who live in the suburbs who still have water and power, so that they have a plan in the “worst case” scenario if the supply to the capital city is lost, the Mayor said.
He added that the authorities were stocking up on fuel, food and water, and residents should do the same, adding that at least 1,000 heating shelters are being set up across the city where people will be able to get warm in an emergency.
Also in his nightly address to the nation, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that as of Sunday evening, more than 4.5 million people remain without electricity Ukraine, majority of them in Kiev.
Zelensky said that he held meetings with government officials, with representatives of energy companies and regional administrations regarding the possible options for the current power situation, reports Ukrayinska Pravda.
“We consider each scenario in detail and prepare appropriate responses. No matter what the terrorists want, no matter what they try to achieve, we must endure this winter and be even stronger in the spring than we are now,” he emphasized.
Night view in Kiev, capital of Ukraine on Feb. 26, 2022. (Xinhua/Li Dongxu/IANS)
The President further claimed that Russia is continuing to amass forces and equipment that would enable it to renew its attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, including the energy infrastructure.
“That’s why Russia needs Iranian missiles. We are preparing to respond,” he said.
On a positive note, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Deputy Head of the President’s Office, said that although the electricity situation Kiev was difficult, but the blackouts were controlled.
In recent weeks, millions of Ukrainians have intermittently been left without electricity and water as Russian air strikes have targeted vital infrastructure, reports the BBC.
Rolling power cuts are also in place to avoid overloads and allow for repairs.
Some 40 per cent of Ukraine’s energy system has been damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks on power plants and lines.
In winter in Kyiv, the average temperature is below freezing and drops even further at night.
Le Pen has gone to great lengths to remove the stigma of racism and antisemitism that clung to the far-right party, to soften its image and to broaden her audience…reports Asian Lite News
Jordan Bardella was elected Saturday to replace Marine Le Pen as president of France’s leading far-right party, a symbolic changing of the guard that comes at a crucial time for the resurgent National Rally.
Bardella, an ambitious 27-year-old and outspoken member of the European Parliament, won an internal party vote with 85 percent support, according to results announced at a party congress in Paris. He becomes the first person to lead the anti-immigration party who doesn’t have the Le Pen name since it was founded a half-century ago.
The National Rally is seeking to capitalize on a breakthrough showing in legislative elections this year and growing support for far-right parties elsewhere in Europe, notably in neighboring Italy. It’s also facing broad public anger over a racist comment this week by a National Rally member in parliament that cast doubt on years of efforts to soften the party’s image.
Marine Le Pen has said she wants to focus on leading the party’s 89 lawmakers in the National Assembly. She’s still expected to wield significant power in party leadership, and run again for the presidency in 2027.
Bardella had been the interim president of the National Rally since Le Pen entered the presidential race last year. He beat out rival Louis Aliot, 53, the mayor of Perpignan and a senior official of the National Rally for two decades. Alliot, who is a fervent supporter of Le Pen’s rise and a former romantic partner of hers, won 15 percent of the party vote.
Le Pen lost to Emmanuel Macron on her third bid for the presidency this year, but won 44 percent of the national vote, her highest score yet. Two months later, her party won its most seats to date in the lower house of parliament.
Le Pen has gone to great lengths to remove the stigma of racism and antisemitism that clung to the far-right party, to soften its image and to broaden her audience. She has notably distanced herself from her now ostracized father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who co-founded the party then called the National Front.
“Bardella is part of a generation of young, very young, people who engaged themselves behind Marine Le Pen in the 2010s and who probably wouldn’t have joined the National Rally during Jean-Marie Le Pen’s era,” political scientist Jean-Yves Camus told The Associated Press.
Bardella supports the anti-immigration and protectionist line of the party.
“Progress today is called localism. It’s called defending borders. It’s called protectionism,” he told the AP in 2019, ahead of European elections, rejecting what he called “massive immigration.”
On the other hand, Aliot, vice president of the party, argued that the National Rally needs to reshape itself to make it more palatable to the mainstream right.
According to Camus, the party vote won’t question Le Pen’s leadership.
“The first impact of this election is that Le Pen won’t have to deal with the party and can focus on the most important thing, leading the party’s lawmakers in the National Assembly,” he explained.
For the past few months, 40,000 members of the party voted online to elect the new head of the party.
