As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 percent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 percent and others 8.3 percent…reports Asian Lite News.
Assam is heading for a photo-finish in the Assembly elections with the UPA looking poised to close the gap with the ruling NDA.
As per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win 65 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, just one more than the majority mark of 64, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) closely following on its heels with 59 seats.
The projected seats are 53 to 66 for the UPA and 58 to 71 for the NDA.
The UPA will gain 33 seats with its biggest gain in lower Assam with 12 seats and 9 seats in the Barak Valley. The UPA will get 22 seats in lower Assam, while it will loose one seat in the hills.
As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 per cent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 per cent and others 8.3 per cent.
There is a 17.8 per cent vote swing in favour of the UPA, and 1.4 per cent swing in favour of the NDA. In 2016, the UPA had got 31 per cent votes, while the NDA managed 41.5 per cent votes and 27.5 per cent.
The NDA is set to loose 21 seats with highest loss of 7 seats in lower Assam and Barak Valley.
In the Bodoland the NDA is set to win 10 seats, while in the tea estate areas it is poised to win 29 seats, repeating its 2016 performance.
The 126-member Assam Assembly may see a hung Assembly and Independents and others will be the key players in such a scenario.
Assam went to polls in three phases and the counting will take place on May 2.
The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters…reports Asian Lite News.
The BJP-led NDA is winning Puducherry, barely retaining Assam and losing Tamil Nadu, whereas the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is likely to retain West Bengal while Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF will make a clean sweep in Kerala, as per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News.
The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters.
The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the states. “We believe this will give the closest possible trends,” said C-Voter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.
The Delhi-based polling agency highlighted in its exit poll that Mamata Banerjee is set to retain West Bengal, even as the BJP is likely to win on 109 to 121 seats, while the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will win Tamil Nadu with a big majority.
The sample size of the exit poll was 28,393 in Assam, 43,630 in Tamil Nadu, 5,003 in Puducherry, 26,447 in Kerala and 85,000 in West Bengal.
Deshmukh also said that for the analytics, they used proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon. The same algorithm has been used to extrapolate the vote share projections into probable seat share in range.
The C-Voter exit poll data collection starts right after the polling process and continues until the elections are over.
“Technically speaking, for a single state, we conduct interviews across randomly selected polling booths across all assembly segments,” Deshmukh said.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala went to the polls in a single phase on April 6. In West Bengal, polling was held in eight phases from March 27 to April 29. In Assam polling was held in three phases from March 27 to April 6.
The polls predicted a sweep for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin and an unprecedented return to power for Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala, reports Asian Lite News.
Exit polls for the latest round of assembly elections on Thursday predicted outcomes along expected lines in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, but seemed to suggest that West Bengal may be too close to call.
The polls predicted a sweep for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin, 62, as one of the most powerful regional leaders in the country; an unprecedented return to power for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, in Kerala; and a successful defence by the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam. But West Bengal, arguably the most intensely and bitterly fought state election in recent times, is also emerging the tightest, the polls indicated.
Some polls gave the BJP, which pulled out all stops in its campaign, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah leading from the front, the edge. Others pointed to an advantage for the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC). The truth will emerge on May 2, when votes are counted.
Opinion polls have been horribly wrong in the past, although, sometimes, they have also been prescient.
The BJP’s general secretary in charge of West Bengal, Kailash Vijayvargiya, said the party would form the government in the state. He attributed the indecisive opinion polls to the research firms’ lack of familiarity with the state, people’s fear of “voicing opinions freely” in a state with a culture of political violence, and the presence of a large number of “silent voters”.
The TMC’s Samir Chakraborty chose only to look at polls that gave an edge to his party. “TMC is getting a majority despite Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and top BJP leaders making Bengal their base camp,” he said.
If the BJP manages to pull off a win, it will a remarkable achievement for a party that won only three of the 294 assembly seats in 2016, although it won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019. The party has long considered Bengal the last frontier, and a win in the state will complete its dominance of the east.
If the TMC manages to hold on — whichever party wins, the margin, if the opinion polls are any indication, will be slim — it will a remarkable achievement for chief minister Mamata Banerjee, whose party was weakened by desertions, faced significant anti-incumbency, and appeared to be behind the BJP for much of the campaign.
It will also elevate her standing in any anti-BJP grouping that coalesces at the national level.
Any such grouping will also have to make space for Stalin, fighting his first assembly election as leader of the party, although he did lead it to a sweep in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 (the DMK-led alliance won 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state). It also means the Dravidian movement, bereft of a leader after the deaths of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (AIADMK’s) J Jayalalithaa and the DMK’s Muthuvel Karunanidhi, gets a new icon.
The polls also predicted the return to power of the BJP and the LDF in Assam and Kerala, respectively. Both were anticipated.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) was criticised for the eight-phase elections in West Bengal, which meant campaigning continued as cases continued to rise, with all parties flouting Covid-19 safety protocol. Elections in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala, were held in one phase on April 6, and that in Assam, in three phases on March 27, April 1, and April 6.
Now it’s on to Sunday when all eyes will be on West Bengal.
The CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News shows that the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 160 to 172 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly….reports Asian Lite News
A post-poll survey shows that the DMK-Congress alliance will return to power in Tamil Nadu with a clear majority.
The CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News shows that the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 160 to 172 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.
The ruling AIADMK-led alliance, of which BJP is also part, is expected to win 58 to 70 seats in Tamil Nadu.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, the AIADMK-led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats while the DMK–led coalition managed to corner 98 seats. Smaller parties remain irrelevant in Tamil Nadu politics.
The exit poll shows that a combination of 10-year anti-incumbency factor and the absence of a charismatic successor to J Jayalalithaa are expected to lead to an electoral setback for the ruling AIADMK-led coalition.
In the first polls held after the death of Tamil Nadu political stalwarts Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the southern state will witness the return of the DMK-Congress alliance.
The exit poll data show that the DMK and its alliance partners will witness a jump of 7.9 per cent vote share, from 38.8 per cent in 2016 to 46.7 per cent in 2021.
The vote share of the AIADMK-led alliance will drop by 8.7 per cent, from 43.7 per cent in 2016 to 35 per cent in 2021. Other outfits will continue to remain marginal players in the state.
Region-wise, the exit poll data project that the DMK and its alliance partners are expected to win 32 to 34 seats in Chola Nadu, where the AIADMK-led alliance is likely to get 7-9 seats.
In the Greater Chennai region, while the DMK-led alliance is expected to secure 11 to 13 seats, the ruling AIADMK coalition is projected to win 3-5 seats.
In the Kongu Nadu region in the west, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to win 33 to 35 seats, while the AIADMK and its coalition partners are likely to emerge victorious on 17 to 19 seats.
In the Pallava Nadu region in north, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to get 36 to 38 seats, while the AIADMK and its allies are expected to secure 8-10 seats.
In the Pandiya Nadu region in south, the DMK-led coalition is expected to win 33 to 35 seats, while the AIADMK-led alliance is expected to win 21 to 23 seats.
In the Puducherry region, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to win 15 to 17 seats, while the AIADMK-led coalition is expected to win 2-4 seats.
On the counting day of May 2, the Union Territory will remain under lockdown and only those allowed to come out including essential services will be allowed movement….reports Asian Lite News
The night curfew and lockdown restrictions imposed up to April 30 in Puducherry have been extended to May 3.
On the counting day of May 2, the Union Territory will remain under lockdown and only those allowed to come out including essential services will be allowed movement. Those who are on duty during counting of votes will also be permitted.
Victory processions are not allowed as directed by the Election Commission.
Gallant COVID-19 patients exercise their right to vote at the Villianur constituency in Puducherry(Twitter)
No gatherings and congregations will not be allowed and people are advised to stay indoors. Those who are authorised to enter the counting hall will have to be in procession a Covid negative certificate to enter the premises.
Candidates, agents, counting officials and media persons should have to undergo either RTPCR or RAT test.
Not more than two persons are allowed to accompany the wining candidate or his representative to receive the certificate from the Returning officer.
The results of the Assembly elections held in five states/UT ,West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will be announced on May 2…reports Asian Lite News
Considering the alarming spike in the number of Covid cases in the country, the Election Commission of India has made it mandatory that no candidate/agent will be allowed inside the counting centres without undergoing RT-PCR/RAT test or without having taken two doses of vaccine against Covid-19.
The results of the Assembly elections held in five states/UT — West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry — will be announced on May 2. Polls have been completed in all the states barring Bengal, where the eighth and final phase of elections will be conducted on Thursday (April 29).
The EC said in its guidelines, “No candidates/agents will be allowed inside the counting hall without undergoing RT-PCR/RAT test or without having 2 doses of vaccination against Covid-19 and will have to produce negative RT-PCR report or RAT report and vaccination report within 48 hours of start of counting.
Polling Personnels(Twitter)
“The DEO shall make arrangements of RT-PCR/RAT tests for candidates/counting agents before the day of counting. No public gathering outside the counting venue shall be allowed during the process of counting.”
Earlier, the EC had made it clear that no victory procession will be allowed after the counting on May 2. The commission also said, “Not more than two persons shall be allowed to accompany the winning candidate or his/her authorised representative to receive the certificate of election from the Returning Officer concerned.”
According to the guidelines, the DEO (District Election Officer) will have to make arrangements for counting halls which should be sufficiently big to maintain social distancing, and should have proper ventilation, windows, exhaust fans. The DEO will have to obtain a compliance certificate from the concerned health authorities before the commencement of the counting.
The Commission has made it clear that there shall be sufficient number of PPE kits for the counting agents/candidates.
The counting agents’ sitting arrangement shall be made in such a way that between two counting agents, one agent will be in a PPE suit, the guidelines said.
In addition to this, the poll panel has also directed to make adequate arrangements for masks, sanitisers, face-shields and gloves for the people inside the counting centres.
The Commission also said that there shall be proper display of ‘Dos and Don’t’ guidelines at convenient places inside the counting centres, including at the entrance.Polling Personnel
The overall voting percentage was 75.06 per cent with Murshidabad recording the highest turnout at 80.30 per cent, according to election commission data…reports Asian Lite News
The penultimate phase of the eight-phase Assembly elections in West Bengal spanning across five districts with 11,376 polling stations ended peacefully on Monday.
The data released by the Election Commission till 5 p.m. showed that the overall voting percentage was 75.06 per cent with Murshidabad recording the highest turnout at 80.30 per cent.
According to the data, Murshidabad, where nine constituencies went to the polls, recorded the highest turnout of 80.30 per cent, while the four seats in South Kolkata reported the lowest turnout of 59.9 per cent.
Malda with six constituencies recorded 78.86 percent polling, while South Dinajpur reported 80.21 per cent turnout in six constituencies. The nine constituencies in West Burdwan recorded 70.24 per cent polling.
West Bengal polls (Twitter)
As far as individual constituencies are concerned, Raninagar in West Burdwan district recorded the highest polling of 84.35 per cent, while Rashbehari in South Kolkata recorded the lowest turnout of only 53.93 per cent.
Among the four Assembly constituencies in the state capital, including Kolkata Port, Rashbehari, Bhowanipore and Ballygunge, Rashbehari had the lowest turnout of only 55.9 per cent, which was around 66.9 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Bhowanipur, from where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had won last time, recorded a turnout of 60 per cent, which was 66.8 per cent in the 2019 general elections.
Similarly, Kolkata Port and Ballygunje recorded a voter turnout of 64 per cent and 59.5 per cent, which was 64.2 per cent and 66.2 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, respectively.
As far as vote share is concerned, Trinamool had an edge over the saffron brigade in the last Lok Sabha polls.
Polling Personnel at the Receiving Centre under 282 Kulti Assembly Constituency of Paschim Bardhaman District.(Twitter)
Despite a strong BJP wind in the state that helped the saffron party win 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats, Trinamool was successful in holding back its forte in these four seats in South Kolkata.
The Assembly seat-wise analysis shows that Trinamool’s Mala Roy maintained her lead in three of the four Assembly constituencies. Rashbehari was the only constituency where BJP candidate Chandra Bose was able to win over his Trinamool counterpart.
Major Trinamool Congress, including Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Trinamool youth wing leader Abhishek Banerjee, state Power Minister Shovondeb Chattopadhayay and Urban Development Minister and former Mayor of Kolkata Municipal Corporation Firhad Hakim, exercised their franchise on Monday.
Banerjee, a resident of Harish Chatterjee Street in South Kolkata, exercised her franchise at a polling booth in Mitra Institution school at around 3.50 p.m. Sitting on a wheelchair, she briefly paused before the photojournalists while coming out amid shouts of ‘Didi, Didi’, before boarding her car. She also flashed a victory sign towards the cameras.
However, former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, who is a resident of Palm Avenue and a voter in the Ballygunje Assembly constituency, failed to cast his vote owing to poor health condition.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee
A few incidents of scuffle were reported from the Asansol area, where Trinamool candidate Saayoni Ghosh claimed that BJP activists tried to jam the booths in the constituency. The allegation was dubbed as baseless by BJP candidate Agnimitra Paul.
In the Jamuria constituency, Left Front candidate Aishe Ghosh alleged that her party agents were stopped from entering the booth by Trinamool workers, a charge which has been denied by the ruling party.
As many as 742 arrests made by the police during the elections with 12 arrests in specific cases and 11 for violation of Section 144. The rest of the arrests were all preventive. Also, 57 bombs were recovered, including 22 in Murshidabad and 35 in Kolkata. Kolkata South had 380 sensitive booths.
Both Murshidabad and Malda had a previous history of poll violence and as per the Election Commission, there were 1680 sensitive booths in Murshidabad and 1,120 in Malda.
“Not a single bomb exploded anywhere in the state during the seventh phase of elections, which was the most peaceful among all the phases conducted so far. The police and the central forces have done excellent work,” said Jagmohan, ADG
Counterterror watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has slammed Pakistan for letting terror outfits continue to function under different names…reports Asian Lite News
Analysts believe that Pakistan’s inaction against proscribed terror outfits may lead Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) to function under a new name, after it was banned on April 15.
Counterterror watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has criticized Pakistan’s inaction against proscribed terror outfits that continue to function under different names. Pakistan’s prosecution of designated terror groups has remained the primary stumbling block since the country’s return to the grey list in 2018, reported Zenger.
“Conditions are created where such elements flourish,” former Punjab chief minister and political scientist Hasan Askari Rizvi told Zenger News.
“In the past, many religious groups have resurfaced under new names. Let’s see what happens. To curtail such groups, you need a new policy. Law is an important factor, but until you change the mindset in the society and this inclination for making all issues religious issues, [support for radical Islamism] will continue,” Rizvi, who authored “Military, State, and Society in Pakistan”, said.
Protest of TLP Lahore, Pakistan(wikipedia)
Kunwar Khuldune Shahid, in an article in Zenger said that some analysts believe that like other proscribed radical Islamist groups in Pakistan — most notably Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (now called Millat-e-Islamia) — the TLP could resurface under a new banner.
TLP emerged as an Islamist pressure group opposing the 2016 hanging of Mumtaz Qadri for murdering former Punjab governor Salman Taseer who had criticized Pakistan’s blasphemy laws. Blasphemy is a legal offense in the country.
Following Qadri’s execution, the TLP and affiliated groups organized nationwide protests, often resorting to destruction of property and street intimidation, an approach it has persisted with.
In November 2017, the TLP held the capital hostage for weeks after amendments in the Electoral Reforms Bill, which had overlooked the mandatory anti-Ahmadi clause requiring the members of the constitutionally excommunicated community to declare themselves non-Muslims to participate in any election process.
Logo of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan(wikipedia)
A month after the incumbent Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government came to power in September 2018, the TLP launched protests against an anti-Islam cartoon competition organized by far-right Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
In October 2018, the TLP protested against the Supreme Court releasing Christian woman Asia Bibi establishing that she was falsely accused of blasphemy against Islam. Last year, the TLP’s backlash prevented the release of the award-winning Pakistani film “Zindagi Tamasha” for portraying a naat-khawan (a reciter of poetry praising Prophet Muhammad) in a negative light, reported Zenger.
The TLP’s latest pushback comes after “Charlie Hebdo” decided to republish caricatures of Prophet Muhammad, coinciding with the trial of abettors of the 2015 jihadist attack on the publication.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s defense of free speech on religion after a schoolteacher, Samuel Paty, was decapitated by a radical Islamist for showing the French satirical publication’s cartoons in class also irked the group.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan
Some interpret the rise of the TLP as being backed by the military establishment, specifically to target the conservative vote bank of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz ahead of the 2018 elections.
Many also point out the duplicity of the ruling party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. It supported the TLP holding Islamabad hostage while in opposition in 2017, with the current interior minister Sheikh Rashid then lauding them as true ‘Aashiq-e-Rasool’.
TLP was seeking the expulsion of the French ambassador Marc Barety, escalated nationwide violence that resulted in the deaths of four police officers apart from infrastructure damage.
The recent violence was in response to the April 12 arrest of TLP chief Saad Hussain Rizvi for organizing a rally to push the government to implement an informal agreement on boycotting French goods and severing diplomatic ties.
The TLP made the government agree to its terms before calling off a protest. The meeting was held in November 2020 with then-Interior Minister Ijaz Ahmed Shah, Minister for Religious Affairs Pir Noor-ul-Haq Qadri, and Islamabad’s deputy commissioner Muhammed Hamza Shafqaat. (ANI)
Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan, a hardline religious organisation, was declared as proscribed by the Imran Khan-led government after the former had detained security officials and unleashed mayhem in the country, reports Hamza Ameer
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a country formed on the basis of freedom of religious rights for its citizens, is a Muslim majority state, where religious groups and organisations play a pivotal role in the country’s democratic system and political setups.
It is common in Pakistan for political parties to seek allegiance from various conservative and hardline religious groups to attain political strength, which could lead them to the victory throne to rule the country.
Hardline religious groups, under the guise of political gains by many political parties, have been supported, facilitated and protected, giving them the leverage to practice and spread their narratives of the religion among the masses.
However, while many such religious groups have made headways and have challenged the country’s democracy in the past, the recent surge of popularity and intensity of the Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) has certainly raised serious questions over how the country’s democratic setup and government operate.
TLP, a hardline religious organisation, which was part of the political race during the last general elections, was declared as proscribed by the Imran Khan-led government after the former had detained security officials and unleashed mayhem in the country.
TLP’s popular identity is its aggressive reaction to any activity or action by any person or country that targets Islam and its Prophet Muhammad.
TLP’s prime agenda has been to protest against any blasphemous action or intent, which has seen support pouring in from all corners of the country.
TLP’s protests have seen violence, blockages, killings and vandalisation, chocking the whole country through its widespread massive support across the nation.
Imran Khan
TLP has certainly demonstrated that its public presence and violent reaction to issues related to religion has time and again brought the sitting government and the authorities to their knees.
This poses a serious threat to the country, which is now witnessing a backlash by such organisations, which were its own creations.
Islamist hardline groups in Pakistan have been able to spread their narrative openly and have been mainstreamed by the governments to the level that they have now become a threat to their own country’s security and its standing in front of the world.
TLP’s demand for expulsion of the French Ambassador from Pakistan and severing relations with France in protest against the ‘blasphemous’ caricatures of Islam and Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) has put the Imran Khan-led government in a difficult position as the premier has stated that the country cannot afford to sever ties with France or with Europe at large.
However, the government, succumbing to the pressure from the Islamist group, has tabled a resolution in the Parliament, seeking its vote on the expulsion of the French Ambassador.
Such Islamist hardliner elements have also enjoyed support from the country’s establishment, which has in the past supported them in their protests.
In 2017, TLP had staged a protest sit-in in Faizabad, the connecting bridge between the capital Islamabad and its twin city Rawalpindi, demanding the resignation of the then sitting law minister over his alleged role in proposing changes to the wording of the oath taken by the parliamentarians, as they deemed it to be blasphemous.
The demand back then was met as the law minister had to resign, even after repeated clarifications that he had never intended to commit any blasphemy.
What is shocking to see is that these Islamist hardliners have been able to dictate terms to the government, both in terms of foreign policy and parliamentary agenda.
This has now become a serious concern for the Imran Khan-led government, which has been trying to portray a positive image of Pakistan to the world.
Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan was the minister who removed from the post and replaced by Mehmet Mus…reports Asian Lite News
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dismissed the Trade Minister and appointed chiefs of two newly established Ministries, according to a presidential decree.
Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan was removed from the post and replaced by Mehmet Mus, Xinhua news agency quoted the decree as saying on Wednesday.
Derya Yanik was appointed as head of the Family Ministry, and Vedat Bilgin took the post as the Labour Minister.
Ministries of labor and family had been under the same roof before the decree separated them.
