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Exit polls predict Cong win in Karnataka

Hassan, May 10 (ANI): JD(S) chief HD Devegowda casts his vote for the Karnataka Elections 2023, at a polling booth in Hassan on Wednesday. (ANI Photo)

Those expecting a hung house also indicated that HD Kumaraswamy’s JD(S) is likely to play the kingmaker…reports Asian Lite News

Karnataka is heading for a hung assembly, seven of 10 exit polls have predicted. Two have predicted an outright victory for the Congress and one for the BJP. Those expecting a hung house also indicated that HD Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal Secular is likely to play the kingmaker.

The majority mark in the 224-seat assembly stands at 113 seats.

Two exit polls — India Today-Axis My India and Times-Now ETG — have predicted the possibility of an outright Congress victory. India TV-CNX and Zee News-Matrize have given an upper limit exceeding 113 to the Congress. News Nation-CGS have predicted a BJP victory, and Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat has predicted an upper limit of 117 for the BJP.

Exit polls do not always get it right.

News Nation-CGS has predicted that the state’s ruling BJP will cross the majority mark with 114 seats, the Congress will win 86 seats and the JD(S) 21.

The Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat has also given an edge to the BJP, predicting it will emerge as the single largest party with anything between 94 and 117 seats. The Congress, it said, will get 91-106 seats and the JD(S) 14-24 seats.

Five other exit polls are counting on a Congress win or a pole position as the single largest party.

India Today-Axis My India is expecting the Congress to win 122 to 140 seats and the BJP to get 62-80 seats.

Times Now-ETG is predicting the Congress will touch the majority mark — barely. It predicts the party will win 113 seats and the BJP will get 85. Twenty-three seats will go to the Janata Dal Secular, it has predicted.

News 24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 120 seats (Plus/Minus 11 seats) for the Congress and 92 (Plus/Minus 11 seats) for the BJP. The JD(S), it said, will get 12 (Plus/Minus 7) seats.  

The Republic TV-P MARQ has predicted that the BJP will win 85-100 of the 224 assembly seats, the Congress will win 94-108 and the JD(S) 24-32 seats. 

The TV 9-Bharatvansh-Polstrat predicted 88-98 seats for the BJP, 99-109 seats for the Congress and 21-26 seats for the JD(S).

The Zee News Matrize has predicted 79-94 seats for the BJP and 103-118 seats for the Congress and 25-33 seas for the JD(S).

ABP News-C Voter are expecting the BJP to win 83-95 seats and the Congress 100 to 112 seats. The JD(S) it expects will win between 21 and 29 seats.

India TV-CNX is also giving the Congress an edge with 110 to 120 seats and 80 to 90 seas to the BJP. The JD(S), it predicted, will get 21 to 29 seats.

The triangular contest for Karnataka ended this evening. The counting of votes will be held on Saturday.

The Congress and HD Kumaraswamy had partnered in 2018 to keep the BJP out of power. The alliance government had lasted a little over a year before collapsing as MLAs from both parties joined the BJP in an alleged Operation Lotus. Their earlier alliance in 2004 had collapsed as well.

This time, both parties have brushed off the possibility of entering an alliance.

In 2006, Kumaraswamy has tied up with the BJP but the government lasted for less than a year before President’s rule was declared in the state.

The government had collapsed after Kumaraswamy, who was the Chief Minister,  refused to hand over the top post to BS Yeddiyurappa, who was his deputy. To retaliate, the BJP had withdrawn support, reducing the Kumaraswamy government to a minority.

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Assam heading for a photo-finish

As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 percent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 percent and others 8.3 percent…reports Asian Lite News.

Assam is heading for a photo-finish in the Assembly elections with the UPA looking poised to close the gap with the ruling NDA.

As per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win 65 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, just one more than the majority mark of 64, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) closely following on its heels with 59 seats.

The projected seats are 53 to 66 for the UPA and 58 to 71 for the NDA.

The UPA will gain 33 seats with its biggest gain in lower Assam with 12 seats and 9 seats in the Barak Valley. The UPA will get 22 seats in lower Assam, while it will loose one seat in the hills.

As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 per cent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 per cent and others 8.3 per cent.

There is a 17.8 per cent vote swing in favour of the UPA, and 1.4 per cent swing in favour of the NDA. In 2016, the UPA had got 31 per cent votes, while the NDA managed 41.5 per cent votes and 27.5 per cent.

The NDA is set to loose 21 seats with highest loss of 7 seats in lower Assam and Barak Valley.

In the Bodoland the NDA is set to win 10 seats, while in the tea estate areas it is poised to win 29 seats, repeating its 2016 performance.

The 126-member Assam Assembly may see a hung Assembly and Independents and others will be the key players in such a scenario.

Assam went to polls in three phases and the counting will take place on May 2.

Also Read-Exit polls indicate hat-trick for Mamata

Read More-Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

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NDA to win Puducherry, DMK to gain power in TN

The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters…reports Asian Lite News.

The BJP-led NDA is winning Puducherry, barely retaining Assam and losing Tamil Nadu, whereas the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is likely to retain West Bengal while Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF will make a clean sweep in Kerala, as per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News.

The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters.

The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the states. “We believe this will give the closest possible trends,” said C-Voter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.

The Delhi-based polling agency highlighted in its exit poll that Mamata Banerjee is set to retain West Bengal, even as the BJP is likely to win on 109 to 121 seats, while the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will win Tamil Nadu with a big majority.

The sample size of the exit poll was 28,393 in Assam, 43,630 in Tamil Nadu, 5,003 in Puducherry, 26,447 in Kerala and 85,000 in West Bengal.

Deshmukh also said that for the analytics, they used proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon. The same algorithm has been used to extrapolate the vote share projections into probable seat share in range.

The C-Voter exit poll data collection starts right after the polling process and continues until the elections are over.

“Technically speaking, for a single state, we conduct interviews across randomly selected polling booths across all assembly segments,” Deshmukh said.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala went to the polls in a single phase on April 6. In West Bengal, polling was held in eight phases from March 27 to April 29. In Assam polling was held in three phases from March 27 to April 6.

Also Read-Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

Read More-Exit polls indicate hat-trick for Mamata

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Exit polls indicate hat-trick for Mamata

Apart from the Axis My India-India Today and the Republic-CNX exit polls, all other surveys forecast a third victory for the Trinamool, reports Asian Lite News

Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to retain power in West Bengal, all exit polls, except two, indicated after the month-long, eight-phase Assembly polls ended on Thursday.

Apart from the Axis My India-India Today and the Republic-CNX exit polls, which gave the BJP an edge in the battleground state, all other surveys, including the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, forecast a third victory for the Trinamool, putting it ahead in the 294-member Assembly.

However, the survey of Axis My India-India Today, whose predictions in the 2019 Assembly elections had shown the immense BJP gains in the state, again gave the party its first-ever victory in the state polls. According to it, the BJP could end with 134-160 seats, the Trinamool with 130-156, and the Left with a mere 0-2. On the other hand, the P-MARQ survey gave the Trinamool 152-172 seats, the BJP 112-132, and the Left 10-20. The NewsX-Polstrat gave the Trinamool 152-162 and the BJP 111-125 seats.

The ETG Research poll gave Banerjee’s party 164-176, the BJP 105-115 and the Left 10-15 seats. CVoter gave Trinamool 152-164, the BJP 109-121 and the Left 14-25.

The Republic-CNX poll, however, showed a BJP victory, giving it 138-148 seats, with 128-132 for the Trinamool and 11-21 for the Left.

 Polling concludes

Despite some sporadic incidents, the eighth and final phase of Assembly elections in West Bengal concluded peacefully on Thursday with a voter turnout of 76.07 per cent.

In the final phase, voting took place in 11,860 polling stations spread across 35 Assembly constituencies in four districts — Malda, Murshidabad, North Kolkata and Birbhum.

According to the data released by the Election Commission, Birbhum district recorded the maximum voter turnout of 81.87 per cent till 5 pm, followed by Malda (80.06 per cent), Murshidabad (78.07 per cent) and North Kolkata (57.43 per cent).

As far as individual constituencies are concerned, Hariharpara in Murshidabad district recorded the highest turnout of 84.19 per cent, while Jorashanko in North Kolkata recorded the lowest turnout of 48.45 per cent.

North Kolkata, where 7 Assembly constituencies went to the polls, recorded an overall polling percentage of 57.43 per cent. Among the individual constituencies in the city, Jorasanko witnessed the lowest polling of 48.45 per cent, while Chowrangee recorded a turnout of 51.98 per cent.

Entally recorded the highest polling in the city at 65.79 per cent, while both Beliagahta and Maniktala recorded a turnout of 60 per cent.

The sporadic incidents that took place during polling on Thursday started with the explosion of two crude bombs near the Mahajati Sadan under the Jorasanko Assembly constituency in the early morning before the beginning of polls.

The police have collected CCTV footage from the spot, but no arrests have been made as yet. No one was injured in the incident.

The second incident was reported from 239 Rabindra Sarani under the Posta police station at 9 am when two crude bombs exploded there. The police have arrested six persons in connection with the case. However, the EC later said that they were only heavy crackers.

Clashes and fisticuffs broke out on more than one occasion between rival political groups.

In Kolkata’s Beliaghata area, clashes broke out between two groups of people on more than one occasion following which the police resorted to mild lathi-charge to disperse the crowd.

Bengal heads for penultimate phase of polling


In Maniktala constituency, BJP candidate Kalyan Choubey was allegedly gheraoed by a group of people during his visit to the polling booths.

ADG (Law & Order), Jagmohan, said that the police made 835 preventive arrests on Thursday which included 316 from the Kolkata Police area. Four persons were arrested on charges of violating Section 144, while 20 were held under specific cases.

“We have recovered 78 crude bombs, seized 5 illegal weapons and 21 round ammunition,” Jagmohan said.

The EC received 1179 complaints through various platforms on Thursday. There was also drone surveillance at some polling booths in Kolkata for monitoring the elections.

Meanwhile, Bengal Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar and his wife Sudesh Dhankhar casted their votes at a polling booth in Chowringhee Assembly constituency.

Also Read-Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

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Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

The polls predicted a sweep for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin and an unprecedented return to power for Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala, reports Asian Lite News.

Exit polls for the latest round of assembly elections on Thursday predicted outcomes along expected lines in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, but seemed to suggest that West Bengal may be too close to call.

The polls predicted a sweep for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin, 62, as one of the most powerful regional leaders in the country; an unprecedented return to power for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, in Kerala; and a successful defence by the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam. But West Bengal, arguably the most intensely and bitterly fought state election in recent times, is also emerging the tightest, the polls indicated.

Some polls gave the BJP, which pulled out all stops in its campaign, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah leading from the front, the edge. Others pointed to an advantage for the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC). The truth will emerge on May 2, when votes are counted.

Opinion polls have been horribly wrong in the past, although, sometimes, they have also been prescient.

The BJP’s general secretary in charge of West Bengal, Kailash Vijayvargiya, said the party would form the government in the state. He attributed the indecisive opinion polls to the research firms’ lack of familiarity with the state, people’s fear of “voicing opinions freely” in a state with a culture of political violence, and the presence of a large number of “silent voters”.

The TMC’s Samir Chakraborty chose only to look at polls that gave an edge to his party. “TMC is getting a majority despite Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and top BJP leaders making Bengal their base camp,” he said.

If the BJP manages to pull off a win, it will a remarkable achievement for a party that won only three of the 294 assembly seats in 2016, although it won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019. The party has long considered Bengal the last frontier, and a win in the state will complete its dominance of the east.

If the TMC manages to hold on — whichever party wins, the margin, if the opinion polls are any indication, will be slim — it will a remarkable achievement for chief minister Mamata Banerjee, whose party was weakened by desertions, faced significant anti-incumbency, and appeared to be behind the BJP for much of the campaign.

It will also elevate her standing in any anti-BJP grouping that coalesces at the national level.

Any such grouping will also have to make space for Stalin, fighting his first assembly election as leader of the party, although he did lead it to a sweep in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 (the DMK-led alliance won 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state). It also means the Dravidian movement, bereft of a leader after the deaths of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (AIADMK’s) J Jayalalithaa and the DMK’s Muthuvel Karunanidhi, gets a new icon.

The polls also predicted the return to power of the BJP and the LDF in Assam and Kerala, respectively. Both were anticipated.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) was criticised for the eight-phase elections in West Bengal, which meant campaigning continued as cases continued to rise, with all parties flouting Covid-19 safety protocol. Elections in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala, were held in one phase on April 6, and that in Assam, in three phases on March 27, April 1, and April 6.

Now it’s on to Sunday when all eyes will be on West Bengal.

Also Read-BJP targets division of non-BJP votes for Bengal polls

Read More-LDF to win big in Kerala