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Finally, son rise in Tamil Nadu

Finally, son rise in Tamil Nadu

With the successive poll victories in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, Stalin has established himself as an undisputed leader…reports Asian Lite News

For the 68-year-old M.K. Stalin, affectionately called “Thalapathi” (Commander) by members of his DMK, the wait to lead Tamil Nadu as its head will soon get over.

The DMK, led by Stalin, a former Deputy Chief Minister, is all set to come to power after a 10-year hiatus, and has even gained a majority on its own.

With the successive poll victories – the first one was the 2019 Lok Sabha polls – and now the Assembly polls, Stalin has established himself as an undisputed leader within and outside the party.

Stalin has to wait for some more days for his coronation as Chief Minister.

His earlier coronation as the DMK’s second President in 2018 was a smooth affair.

DMK’s then General Secretary K. Anbazhagan then said 1,307 party officials had proposed and seconded Stalin’s candidature.

Stalin was given the role of Working President in January 2017 after his father and party patriarch M. Karunanidhi was largely confined to his home due to age-related ailments.

Born on March 1, 1953 to Karunanidhi and Dayalu Ammal, Stalin was named after the Russian leader Joseph Stalin who died on March 5, 1953 – four days after Stalin’s birth.

Also read:NDA to win Puducherry, DMK to gain power in TN

Legend has it that Karunanidhi wanted to name him ‘Ayyadurai’ – after DK founder ‘Periyar’ E.V. Ramasamy and DMK founder C.N. Annadurai.

Like his multi-faceted father who entered public life at the age of 14, Stalin too started his political journey by becoming an ordinary member of the DMK at the age of 14 and campaigning for the party in the 1967 polls.

A year earlier he had formed a youth forum: Gopalapuram Youth DMK.

Stalin came to public notice at large when he was jailed under the Maintenance of Internal Security Act (MISA) for opposing the imposition of Emergency by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

He became the party’s Youth Wing Secretary in 1984 and continued to hold that post for a long time.

It was in 1984 that Stalin made his electoral debut from Thousand Lights constituency in Chennai but lost. He finally entered the Assembly in 1989.

The other electoral loss for him was in 1991 at the same seat.

Till date, Stalin has won six Assembly polls – four times from Thousand Lights and twice from Kolathur constituency. His seventh victory comes in 2021.

Stalin was the Local Administration Minister in the Karunanidhi government (2006-11) and became Deputy Chief Minister in 2009 and stayed in the post till 2011.

As the aged Karunanidhi was not able to move much, the mantle of being lead campaigner fell on him in 2016 Assembly polls.

The DMK won 89 seats and narrowly missed the victory to the AIADMK then led by J. Jayalalithaa.

Stalin became the Leader of the Opposition. But the party suffered a shock defeat losing the security deposit in the by-election from R.K. Nagar constituency in Chennai, a seat held by Jayalalithaa. The by-election was won by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, a rebel AIADMK leader who later floated the AMMK.

Also read:DMK-Congress front to sweep TN

Before becoming a state minister, Stalin was the Chennai Mayor in 1996-2001 and 2001-02. He was also the party Treasurer.

During his Mayorship, the Chennai Corporation built several flyovers to ease the traffic flow. The AIADMK government headed by Jayalalithaa had, however, arrested Stalin for alleged corruption in building the flyovers. But it did not affect his career. Even Karunanidhi had once openly declared that if he had a chance then he would announce Stalin as his successor.

But Stalin’s elder brother and former Union Minister M.K. Alagiri – then incharge of the party affairs in the southern districts – opposed it and said he cannot think of anybody else as his leader other than Karunanidhi.

Later, Alagiri was dismissed from the party for anti-party activities.

Meanwhile, Stalin started taking strong hold of the party reins following the indisposition of Karunanidhi.

The Alagiri-Stalin rivalry plagued the DMK for a long time but Karunanidhi kept a fragile peace till his passing away.

Stalin is married to Durga, a believer, and the couple have two children – Udayanidhi and Senthamarai.

Udhayanidhi, an actor turned politician, also made successful electoral debut this time from the Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni Assembly constituency.

Stalin also had acted in two movies and in two television serials.

Succeeding Karunanidhi, an illustrious leader, Stalin did not try to show himself as a leader different from his father, and in all his election campaign speeches, always said he is the son of Karunanidhi.

Roping in political strategist Prashant Kishor to chart the party’s victory route, Stalin continued with the campaign of painting the Narendra Modi-led Central government as “anti-Tamil” and “anti-states”.

The party also successfully built a public perception that it would win the polls and the AIADMK government was subservient to the Central government.

Also read:DMK marches ahead with slew of welfare schemes

Stalin also carried out hard bargaining for seats with allies and made many of them contest under the party’s Rising Sun electoral symbol.

On the other factors that worked for the DMK in the assembly elections, a political analyst told IANS, were the anti-incumbency against the AIADMK government, the anti-BJP sentiment, alliance arithmetic, the steady cultivation of the perception that it will win the polls over a long period of time, and caste neutrality.

He did not agree that the assembly poll victory was an extension of the DMK-led alliance’s victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

“That was a total rout for the AIADMK-led alliance. During the Lok Sabha elections, it was Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for the Prime Ministership that was on the centre stage,” the analyst said.

In 2019 there was an anti-Modi wave in Tamil Nadu. But in the 2021 Assembly elections, Stalin was at the centre stage but there was no wave in his favour to rout the AIADMK, the analyst said.

Be that as it may, with the 2021 Assembly election victory and heading the state government, Stalin has very many challenges facing him.

First and the foremost will be arresting the spread of coronavirus.

As an opposition leader, he had fired several salvos against Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. And now Stalin has to take control.

As he used to say, the state finances were in bad shape. And now it is his responsibility to set it right while fulfilling many of the populist poll promises that were made this time.

After years of maintaining an anti-BJP stance, Stalin has to navigate carefully the centre-state relations as a Chief Minister.

What is now certain is that Stalin may come out of his father’s shadows. And the long wait to become the Chief Minister will soon get over.

Also read:TN Election Updates: DMK takes lead

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Congress paid the price of pact with AIUDF in Assam

Congress paid the price of pact with AIUDF in Assam

Political analysts categorically said that the Congress paid the price for the coalition with the Muslim-based body, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), in Assam…reports Asian Lite News

The alliance with the AIUDF shattered Congress dream to capture power in Assam, though the grand old party performed better this time as compared to 2016, when it was defeated by the BJP after 15 years, experts and political commentators feel.

Political analysts categorically said that the Congress paid the price for the coalition with the Muslim-based body, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), in Assam.

Social activist and political commentator Ajoy Kumar Dutta said that the Congress tried to win the hearts of the people in Assam using the sentiments against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, but the Assamese and the indigenous people of the state could not accept the alliance with the AIUDF, led by perfume baron and Lok Sabha member Badruddin Ajmal.

Badruddin Ajmal(Twitter)

Dutta, a Padma Shri awardee said: “Every action has an equal reaction. Once three-time Assam Chief Minister late Tarun Gogoi had said ‘who is Ajmal’, but after his death, his party allied with it. People feared that if the Congress came to power in Assam, it would be controlled by Ajmal’s AIUDF.”

The BJP and few other non-BJP parties had accused the AIUDF and its leadership of patronising “illegal immigrants” and most Assamese people had accepted the logic.

The BJP fought the 2016 Assembly polls with the slogan of “‘jati, mati, bheti’ (identity, land and homestead) and succeeded. This time, the saffron party campaigned for the protection of Assamese civilisation and traditional culture and again it achieved its goal.

Congress.

Except Bengali dominated southern Assam, the Congress-led ‘Mahajot’ (Grand Alliance) performed poorly in most parts of the state, especially in eastern Assam, known as the Assamese heartland.

Of the 15 seats in southern Assam’s Barak Valley comprising three districts — Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi — the Mahajot either won or is leading in 11 seats with the BJP and its ally ahead in four seats.

Also read:Assam to get 40 MT medical oxygen from Bhutan daily

In the 2016 Assembly elections in Barak Valley, the BJP had won eight seats while the Congress had bagged seven seats.

Political commentator Sushanta Talukdar said that considering the AIUDF’s track record and role, the people of Assam could not accept the Congress’ alliance with the party, which is soft towards the “infiltrators and illegal migrants”.

“Most Assamese and indigenous people thought that the AIUDF is more dangerous than the CAA. So despite not support the new citizenship act, they could not accept the Congress’ stand to ally with Ajmal’s party,” Talukdar said.

Nagaon Election District, gearing up for the counting of votes(Twitter)

The results of the elections to the 126-member Assam assembly clearly indicate that the BJP has caused a permanent dent in the erstwhile traditional Congress stronghold among the tribals, lakhs of tea garden workers and the indigenous people.

It is also understandable that the saffron party’s inroad into this Congress bastion in 2016 was not a temporary phenomenon.

During the campaign, the BJP highlighted the “perfect NRC (National Register of Citizens)” while the Congress gave top priority to the CAA, even as both the national parties had common issues of empowerment of women, jobs to the youth and protecting the Assamese traditional culture.

The Congress had promised ‘Five Guarantees’ to the voters in its manifesto, including restarting the process of NRC; repealing the CAA; Rs 365 daily wage to 10 lakh tea garden workers; 5 lakh jobs in five years; Rs 2,000 per month to housewives and 200-unit free electricity per household.

Elected MLAs of INC Assam(TWITTER)

The BJP’s ‘Sankalp Patra’ also promises to control floods in Assam, empower the women under the state’s flagship scheme ‘Orunodoi’, and increase the monthly payment of Rs 830 to Rs 3,000 covering 30 lakh deserving families.

The AIUDF, which won 13 seats in the 2016 Assembly polls, has won five seats this time besides leading in 10 seats, while the Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF), which had bagged 12 seats five years ago, has won one seat this time and is leading in two seats in the Bodoland areas of western Assam.

According to the latest tally of the Election Commission, of the total of 126 seats, the BJP has so far won 27 and is leading on 32 seats, while its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) won six seats and is leading on four seats. The United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) has won four seats and is leading on two seats.

The Congress has won eight seats and is leading on 23 seats, while its ally CPI-M is leading on one seat.

Raijor Dal (RD) President and jailed leader Akhil Gogoi, who is contesting from the Sibasagar constituency as an Independent candidate, is also leading.

The BJP had won 60 seats in the previous Assembly elections in 2016 while its ally AGP had managed 14 seats. The Congress had secured 26 seats while one seat went to an Independent candidate.

Also read:ELECTION UPDATES 2021: NDA leads in Assam

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Pinarayi creates history, Mamata humbles BJP

BJP retains Assam and wind Puducherry, MK Stalin set to be Tamil Nadu CM, reports Asian Lite News

The election juggernaut in four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry sprang a few surprises on Sunday. But the clear winners who emerged out of the two-month-long exercise were the chief ministers of Kerala and West Bengal.

If Pinarayi Vijayan scripted history becoming the first CM to win two consecutive terms in the state, Mamata Banerjee proved a giant killer as she upset the BJP’s protracted election campaign which saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP chief Nadda and the whole Un ion Cabinet holing 100s of rallies across the state. The BJP were left red-faced after the call, “Ab ki baar 200 par” (This time a win with over 200 seats).

The party’s calculation in Tamil Nadu also came a cropper after the DMK-led front is set the form the government. The win is the beginning of a new political innings for DMK leader MK Stalin, who has been actively campaigning against the ruling AIADMK. However, the victory may not be decisive as the AIADMK-led front has managed to give MK Stalin a tough fight.

However, the saffron party seems set to retain its government in Assam and form an NDA government in Puducherry.

Vijayan the winner

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, off late addressed by many in the social media as ‘Captain’, seems set to justify the title by creating history by leading the Left Democratic Front to its second consecutive victory, a feat which bucks an over 40-year-old trend in the state’s electoral politics.

As the counting of votes reaches the last few rounds across the state’s 140 Assembly constituencies, the LDF is leading in 98 seats, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front leading in 41 and the BJP in one seat — Palakkad where Metroman E. Sreedharan is leading by 1,700 votes, as against over 5,000 at one point.

The Left’s stunning performance can be attributed to no one other than Chief Minister Vijayan who led from the front.

In the 2016 polls, it was party stalwart V.S. Achuthanandan who led from the front and after the Left won, Vijayan stepped in to take the Chief Minister’s post, while Achuthanandan was given the post of ‘Kerala Castro’.

The Congress-led UDF, which had swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, will have to do a lot of introspection as they were banking on a backlash against the Left from the Hindu women voters, especially those who are devotees of Lord Ayyappa, over Vijayan altering the traditions of the Sabarimala temple in 2018. After getting knocked out at the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Vijayan decided to wait for the apex court directive and then decide.

Mamata edges past BJP in Bengal

The early trends in the West Bengal assembly polls show that though chief minister Mamata Banerjee is trailing behind BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari in Nandigram, ruling Trinamool Congress is having an edge over the BJP.

The initial trends of 292 seats show that the Trinamool is leading in 189 seats while the BJP is leading in 98 seats and the United Front (Sanjukta Morcha) is leading in rest of the 5 seats.

The 2021 assembly election has been a major test for the ruling Trinamool Congress as the saffron brigade had put in all its might to make its footmark for the first time in West Bengal. But if early trends are taken as an indication, then Mamata Banerjee seems to have an edge over her rival.

The trends available from different sources indicate that Trinamool Congress is leading in 178 of the 292 seats while the BJP is leading in 108 seats. United Front – an alliance of Left Front, Congress and the newly formed Indian Secular Front, is leading in rest of the 6 seats.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee

There was no election in two assembly constituencies as the respective candidates died before the polls. Presently the counting of postal ballots is going on where mainly the government officials on election duty and voters above 80 years of age exercised their franchise.

There is one aspect which can make chief minister Mamata Banerjee happy. As counting of the postal ballots show Trinamool having an edge over the BJP, it is also indicative that the government employees who turned their face away from the ruling party are showing signs of coming back into the Trinamool fold. In the last Lok Sabha elections, on the basis of postal ballots, the BJP was ahead in 41 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats.

Also Read-Pinarayi leads LDF to historic win in Kerala

Read More-Didi is Bengal’s Dada

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Pinarayi leads LDF to historic win in Kerala

Looking at the overall picture, it now appears that the Left is maintaining the same ground as in 2016, when they won 91 seats…reports Asian Lite News.

Present CM of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan is ready for a comeback for another 5 years in the state. ith counting of votes in the Kerala Assembly elections picking pace, and reaching the halfway mark in many of the 140 constituencies, the indications are that the Left is set to rewrite the state’s electoral history by becoming the first government to retain power.

According to present indications, the Left Democratic Front is leading in 93 seats while the Congress-led United Democratic Front in 44 and the BJP in three seats.

The Left’s stunning performance can be attributed to no one other than Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan who led from the front.

In the 2016 polls, it was party stalwart V.S. Achuthanandan who led from the front and after the Left won, Vijayan stepped in to take the Chief Minister’s post, while Achuthanandan was given the post of ‘Kerala Castro’.

Vijayan, despite running into numerous troubles in various issues, stood his ground and boldly went forward. His writ ran large when it came to selecting party candidates, with seven ministers and 26 legislators left out.

Meanwhile, of the 48 seats that the UDF is leading in, its second-largest constituent, the IUML is leading in 12.

E sreedharan

Of the NDA, ‘Metroman’ E. Sreedharan is fighting hard and in one particular booth in his constituency Palakkad, he has got all the votes and at the moment, he is leading by around 5000 votes.

Looking at the overall picture, it now appears that the Left is maintaining the same ground as in 2016, when they won 91 seats.

However, its new ally Kerala Congress-Mani’s leader Jose K.Mani, son of late legendary K.M. Mani whose party was in the Congress-led UDF till last year before switching over to the LDF, was trailing badly by over 10,000 votes in Pala, represented by his father for over half a century.

What will be painful for him is a few of the other candidates from his party are leading.

State Power Minister M.M. Mani, who won the 2016 polls with a slender margin of around 1000 votes, is now leading by a huge margin of 20,000 votes and said this result was on the cards “as there has never been a better government in the state than Vijayan’s”.

The pattern right from the start of the counting of votes was the UDF was unable to move above the 60 seat mark and in many of these constituencies, it is leading with a slender margin and if it continues, then there could be more shocks and the Left might well end up with 100 seats or more.

Also Read-LDF to win big in Kerala

Read More-Kerala Polls: Advantage LDF as Congress Withers

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TN Election Updates: DMK takes lead

On the other hand, the AIADMK-led alliance is leading in 89 seats, as per Election Commission data…reports Asian Lite News.

As the counting of votes for the single-phase Tamil Nadu Assembly elections is underway with the DMK-led alliance in the lead in a majority of Tamil Nadu’s 234 Assembly constituencies, party cadres have started to assemble at the party headquarters here.

The party cadres are visibly happy as DMK is expected to maintain the lead and finally win the poll to capture power in the state after a gap of 10 years.

According to Election Commission data, the DMK is leading in 117 seats, while of its allies, Congress leads in 13 seats, the CPI, the CPI-M and the VCK in two seats each, taking the tally to 136 seats, as against the halfway mark of 118 seats.

On the other hand, the AIADMK-led alliance is leading in 89 seats, as per Election Commission data.

DMK President M.K. Stalin and his son Udhayanidhi Stalin are comfortably leading in their Kolathur and Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni seats, respectively.

Also Read-DMK-Congress front to sweep TN

Read More-NDA to win Puducherry, DMK to gain power in TN

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ELECTION UPDATES 2021: NDA leads in Assam

Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and AGP chief and minister Atul Bora are leading from Majuli, Jalukbari and Bokakhat seats respectively…reports Asian Lite News.

BJP is on great relief as the party is getting a good lead-in Assam ahead of the 2021 Assembly election counting is in progress. The ruling BJP-led NDA is leading on 39 seats, while the Grand Alliance led by the Congress is ahead on eight assembly constituencies, elections officials said on Sunday.

According to the Election Commission’s initial trends of the results, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is leading on 27 seats while its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) on six seats and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) on six.

The Congress has established initial leads only on five seats while its partners Bodoland Peoples Front on two seats and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) on one seat.

Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and AGP chief and minister Atul Bora are leading from Majuli, Jalukbari and Bokakhat seats respectively.

Congress Legislative Party leader and his deputy Debabrata Saikia and Rakibul Hussain both are trailing from Nazira and Samaguri respectively.

The counting of votes for 126 Assembly seats in Assam for which polling was held in three phases began on Sunday morning in 34 districts amid tight security measures and all Covid-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs).

Assam Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Nitin Khade said counting of votes are being held in 50 Election Districts (34 administrative districts) and there are three tiers of security put in place in and around the counting centres and adjoining areas.

“To maintain Covid protocols and guidelines issued by the Election Commission, numbers of counting halls have been increased by 131 per cent — from 143 in 2016 Assembly election to 331 this time,” the CEO said.

In all, 946 candidates including 74 female candidates of different political parties including BJP and Congress contested the elections.

Sunday’s polling outcome would decide the electoral fate of Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal (Majuli), BJP’s northeast region points man and Finance, Health, Education Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma (Jalukbari), Assembly Speaker Hitendra Nath Goswami (Jorhat), ruling BJP’s state President Ranjeet Kumar Dass (Patacharkuchi), Congress President Ripun Bora (Gohpur), party’s Legislature Party leader Debabrata Saikia (Nazira), Asom Gana Parishad chief and minister Atul Bora (Bokakhat), jailed Raijor Dal President and prominent peasant leader Akhil Gogoi (Sibsagar) and Assam Jatiya Parishad President Lurinjyoti Gogoi (Duliajan).

Also Read-BJP targets division of non-BJP votes for Bengal polls

Read More-Rajasthan betting hub predicts BJP victory in WB

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Assam heading for a photo-finish

As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 percent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 percent and others 8.3 percent…reports Asian Lite News.

Assam is heading for a photo-finish in the Assembly elections with the UPA looking poised to close the gap with the ruling NDA.

As per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win 65 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, just one more than the majority mark of 64, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) closely following on its heels with 59 seats.

The projected seats are 53 to 66 for the UPA and 58 to 71 for the NDA.

The UPA will gain 33 seats with its biggest gain in lower Assam with 12 seats and 9 seats in the Barak Valley. The UPA will get 22 seats in lower Assam, while it will loose one seat in the hills.

As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 per cent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 per cent and others 8.3 per cent.

There is a 17.8 per cent vote swing in favour of the UPA, and 1.4 per cent swing in favour of the NDA. In 2016, the UPA had got 31 per cent votes, while the NDA managed 41.5 per cent votes and 27.5 per cent.

The NDA is set to loose 21 seats with highest loss of 7 seats in lower Assam and Barak Valley.

In the Bodoland the NDA is set to win 10 seats, while in the tea estate areas it is poised to win 29 seats, repeating its 2016 performance.

The 126-member Assam Assembly may see a hung Assembly and Independents and others will be the key players in such a scenario.

Assam went to polls in three phases and the counting will take place on May 2.

Also Read-Exit polls indicate hat-trick for Mamata

Read More-Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

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NDA to win Puducherry, DMK to gain power in TN

The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters…reports Asian Lite News.

The BJP-led NDA is winning Puducherry, barely retaining Assam and losing Tamil Nadu, whereas the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is likely to retain West Bengal while Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF will make a clean sweep in Kerala, as per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News.

The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters.

The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the states. “We believe this will give the closest possible trends,” said C-Voter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.

The Delhi-based polling agency highlighted in its exit poll that Mamata Banerjee is set to retain West Bengal, even as the BJP is likely to win on 109 to 121 seats, while the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will win Tamil Nadu with a big majority.

The sample size of the exit poll was 28,393 in Assam, 43,630 in Tamil Nadu, 5,003 in Puducherry, 26,447 in Kerala and 85,000 in West Bengal.

Deshmukh also said that for the analytics, they used proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon. The same algorithm has been used to extrapolate the vote share projections into probable seat share in range.

The C-Voter exit poll data collection starts right after the polling process and continues until the elections are over.

“Technically speaking, for a single state, we conduct interviews across randomly selected polling booths across all assembly segments,” Deshmukh said.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala went to the polls in a single phase on April 6. In West Bengal, polling was held in eight phases from March 27 to April 29. In Assam polling was held in three phases from March 27 to April 6.

Also Read-Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

Read More-Exit polls indicate hat-trick for Mamata

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Exit polls predict win for Stalin, Pinarayi; cliffhanger in Bengal

The polls predicted a sweep for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin and an unprecedented return to power for Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala, reports Asian Lite News.

Exit polls for the latest round of assembly elections on Thursday predicted outcomes along expected lines in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, but seemed to suggest that West Bengal may be too close to call.

The polls predicted a sweep for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, signalling the emergence of MK Stalin, 62, as one of the most powerful regional leaders in the country; an unprecedented return to power for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, in Kerala; and a successful defence by the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam. But West Bengal, arguably the most intensely and bitterly fought state election in recent times, is also emerging the tightest, the polls indicated.

Some polls gave the BJP, which pulled out all stops in its campaign, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah leading from the front, the edge. Others pointed to an advantage for the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC). The truth will emerge on May 2, when votes are counted.

Opinion polls have been horribly wrong in the past, although, sometimes, they have also been prescient.

The BJP’s general secretary in charge of West Bengal, Kailash Vijayvargiya, said the party would form the government in the state. He attributed the indecisive opinion polls to the research firms’ lack of familiarity with the state, people’s fear of “voicing opinions freely” in a state with a culture of political violence, and the presence of a large number of “silent voters”.

The TMC’s Samir Chakraborty chose only to look at polls that gave an edge to his party. “TMC is getting a majority despite Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and top BJP leaders making Bengal their base camp,” he said.

If the BJP manages to pull off a win, it will a remarkable achievement for a party that won only three of the 294 assembly seats in 2016, although it won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019. The party has long considered Bengal the last frontier, and a win in the state will complete its dominance of the east.

If the TMC manages to hold on — whichever party wins, the margin, if the opinion polls are any indication, will be slim — it will a remarkable achievement for chief minister Mamata Banerjee, whose party was weakened by desertions, faced significant anti-incumbency, and appeared to be behind the BJP for much of the campaign.

It will also elevate her standing in any anti-BJP grouping that coalesces at the national level.

Any such grouping will also have to make space for Stalin, fighting his first assembly election as leader of the party, although he did lead it to a sweep in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 (the DMK-led alliance won 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state). It also means the Dravidian movement, bereft of a leader after the deaths of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (AIADMK’s) J Jayalalithaa and the DMK’s Muthuvel Karunanidhi, gets a new icon.

The polls also predicted the return to power of the BJP and the LDF in Assam and Kerala, respectively. Both were anticipated.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) was criticised for the eight-phase elections in West Bengal, which meant campaigning continued as cases continued to rise, with all parties flouting Covid-19 safety protocol. Elections in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala, were held in one phase on April 6, and that in Assam, in three phases on March 27, April 1, and April 6.

Now it’s on to Sunday when all eyes will be on West Bengal.

Also Read-BJP targets division of non-BJP votes for Bengal polls

Read More-LDF to win big in Kerala

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DMK-Congress front to sweep TN

The CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News shows that the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 160 to 172 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly….reports Asian Lite News

A post-poll survey shows that the DMK-Congress alliance will return to power in Tamil Nadu with a clear majority.

The CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News shows that the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 160 to 172 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.

The ruling AIADMK-led alliance, of which BJP is also part, is expected to win 58 to 70 seats in Tamil Nadu.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, the AIADMK-led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats while the DMK–led coalition managed to corner 98 seats. Smaller parties remain irrelevant in Tamil Nadu politics.

The exit poll shows that a combination of 10-year anti-incumbency factor and the absence of a charismatic successor to J Jayalalithaa are expected to lead to an electoral setback for the ruling AIADMK-led coalition.

In the first polls held after the death of Tamil Nadu political stalwarts Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the southern state will witness the return of the DMK-Congress alliance.

The exit poll data show that the DMK and its alliance partners will witness a jump of 7.9 per cent vote share, from 38.8 per cent in 2016 to 46.7 per cent in 2021.

The vote share of the AIADMK-led alliance will drop by 8.7 per cent, from 43.7 per cent in 2016 to 35 per cent in 2021. Other outfits will continue to remain marginal players in the state.

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Region-wise, the exit poll data project that the DMK and its alliance partners are expected to win 32 to 34 seats in Chola Nadu, where the AIADMK-led alliance is likely to get 7-9 seats.

In the Greater Chennai region, while the DMK-led alliance is expected to secure 11 to 13 seats, the ruling AIADMK coalition is projected to win 3-5 seats.

In the Kongu Nadu region in the west, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to win 33 to 35 seats, while the AIADMK and its coalition partners are likely to emerge victorious on 17 to 19 seats.

In the Pallava Nadu region in north, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to get 36 to 38 seats, while the AIADMK and its allies are expected to secure 8-10 seats.

In the Pandiya Nadu region in south, the DMK-led coalition is expected to win 33 to 35 seats, while the AIADMK-led alliance is expected to win 21 to 23 seats.

In the Puducherry region, the DMK and its alliance partners are projected to win 15 to 17 seats, while the AIADMK-led coalition is expected to win 2-4 seats.

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