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It’s Game Over Rishi Sunak – Why not call a General Election?

The reality after losing the by-elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire last week is grim for Rishi Sunak… writes Kishan Devani BEM, FRSA

As Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party said recently – Rishi Sunak is “completely wrong” to say nobody wants a general election actually “What he really meant was he’s not happy to go to the electorate because he thinks he will lose.”

The reality after losing the by-elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire last week is grim for Rishi Sunak. The Conservative Party suffered crushing defeats in electoral contests for two of its safest parliamentary seats, sending an ominous signal to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak about his chances of holding onto power in the next general election. The Tories are heading for a 1997-style defeat, Rishi Sunak needs to wake up and smell the coffee, after two historic by-election losses.

Prof John Curtice said Labour’s shock wins in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire meant the Tories had not seen such poor by-election results since the run-up to Tony Blair’s 1997 general election landslide. Sir John warned that without a “dramatic” turnaround, Sunak’s party is on course for a huge defeat – predicting that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could claim an even bigger win than under Tony Blair in 1997.

Labour overcame a 24,664 majority to win Mid Bedfordshire, marking the largest Conservative numerical majority overturned in the U.K. by the main opposition party since 1945.

In Tamworth, the 23.9-point swing from Conservative to Labour represented the second-largest percentage overturn of its kind since 1945 and took on what was a 66% Conservative majority in the 2019 general election.

Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options. But why not do it now? Spare everyone the continuing incompetence, division, empty words, nonsensical policies & complete and utter disregard for the problems facing communities across our country. Do us all a favour and call a General Election – if you are so confident that you will win and the Conservatives will continue their campaign of dividing our nation – then please go ahead and call one. The electorate are now fed up of this populist, slogan led, empty and hollow government. It is this that the Conservatives and Mr Sunak obviously know and hence are not calling the General Election our country desperately needs.

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Sunak would lose his seat in a general election, says poll

A separate survey of 1,088 people by Deltapoll on Tuesday put Labour on 45 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent…reports Asian Lite News

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would lose his Parliamentary seat in a general election, according to polling by Savanta that puts the opposition Labour Party 20 points ahead of the prime minister’s ruling Conservatives.

Labour would romp to a 314-seat majority if an election were held tomorrow, Savanta said in a statement on Tuesday that put Keir Starmer’s party on 48 per cent, with the Tories on 28 per cent.

The Conservatives would lose almost 300 seats, including Mr Sunak’s constituency in Yorkshire and all other seats north of Lincolnshire. Savanta interviewed 6,237 British adults between Dec 2 and Dec 5.

The survey is the latest in a string of polls giving Labour a wide lead over Conservative, and will add to the sense that Mr Sunak faces a struggle to repair the fortunes of the ruling party ahead of a general election that must be held by January 2025.

The Tory brand has been badly damaged this year as MPs ousted two prime ministers, including Mr Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, who crashed the pound and roiled the bond markets during a disastrous seven weeks in office.

A separate survey of 1,088 people by Deltapoll on Tuesday put Labour on 45 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent.

The Savanta results reflects “two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes,” Mr Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said in the statement. But with some of the projections indicating marginal results, “it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model”.

The Tories won 365 seats in the 2019 general election, and now hold 356 as a result of suspensions and by-election losses. Under the latest poll, they would win just 69, compared to 482 for Labour. Savanta said the Scottish National Party would win 55, with the Liberal Democrats on 21.

Savanta’s data were subject to so-called multi-regression and post-stratification (MRP) modelling by Electoral Calculus. MRP polling is a relatively recent technique that aims to give a more detailed prediction than a standard opinion poll.

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