Blinken will hold discussions on recent Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and avoiding escalation in Lebanon….reports Asian Lite News
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will begin his visit to the Middle Eastern countries from January 4 till January 11, to address ongoing concerns, including the release of remaining hostages and delivering life-saving humanitarian assistance to Gazan civilians.
US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller on Friday emphasised that Blinken will travel to Istanbul, Turkey; Crete, Greece; Amman, Jordan; Doha, Qatar; Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates; Al ‘Ula, Saudi Arabia; Tel Aviv, Israel; the West Bank; and Cairo, Egypt, from January 4.
State Secretary Blinken will further underscore the importance of protecting civilians’ lives in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.
“Throughout his trip, the Secretary will underscore the importance of protecting civilian lives in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza; securing the release of all remaining hostages; our shared commitment to facilitating the increased, sustained delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the resumption of essential services; and ensuring that Palestinians are not forcibly displaced from Gaza,” Miller said.
Moreover, Blinken will hold discussions on recent Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and avoiding escalation in Lebanon.
“Blinken will also discuss urgent mechanisms to stem violence, calm rhetoric, and reduce regional tensions, including deterring Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and avoiding escalation in Lebanon,” he added.
The US State Secretary will further reaffirm the US commitment to working with partners to set the conditions necessary for peace in the Middle East.
It will include comprehensive and tangible steps towards the realisation of a future Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel, with both living in peace and security, Miller said.
Recently, in another move that sidesteps congressional approval, US President Joe Biden’s administration authorised the immediate transfer of nearly USD 150 million in military equipment to Israel for its ongoing conflict with Hamas. It marks the second such bypass within the month, CNN reported.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken apprised Congress of his emergency determination, allowing the prompt transfer of “155mm ancillary items, including fuzes, charges, and primers that make 155mm shells functional,” as revealed by a State Department spokesperson.
The spokesperson said the additional items were added to previous sales, which “increased the total value of the sale to USD 147.5 million,” according to CNN. (ANI)
Dubai has been ranked among the top 10 cities in the Global Power City Index (GPCI) 2023, a prestigious and internationally recognised league table issued by the Mori Memorial Foundation’s Institute for Urban Strategies in Japan. The new ranking makes Dubai the first city in the Middle East to attain this prestigious global recognition.
In the 2023 index, which ranks major cities on to their ‘magnetism’ – or power to attract people, capital and enterprises – Dubai climbed three places to eighth overall. The achievement cements Dubai’s position as a leading global city, driven by the vision of its leadership and the collective determination of its citizens and residents.
H.H. Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, said that Dubai’s progress in the Global Power City Index 2023 reflects the dedicated efforts to realise the vision of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, to attain top global positions across various vital sectors and establish Dubai as the world’s best city to work and live in.
Congratulating Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid on the emirate’s achievement as the first city in the Middle East to make it into the prestigious list, Sheikh Hamdan said, “There is no limit to our ambitions, and with the unwavering dedication of our nation’s people, we will continue to strengthen Dubai’s position as a model for the cities of the future, achieving milestones that set the global standard. Dubai’s excellence and accomplishments stem from the visionary leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, propelling the city at an accelerated pace towards the pinnacle of leadership and excellence.”
Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed urged both the private and public sectors in Dubai to persist in their efforts to establish Dubai as a sustainable development model that places the development of people’s capabilities and enhances their quality of life at the forefront of its priorities. He underscored the government’s ongoing commitment to achieving further milestones in various global competitiveness indicators and consolidating a knowledge and creative economy through the adoption and implementation of modern legislative frameworks and regulatory rules, carefully crafted to address global changes. These efforts affirm Dubai’s capability to efficiently keep pace with the evolving landscape, he said.
“To cement Dubai’s position as a global economic powerhouse and its role as a catalyst for growth, we must cultivate world-class working environments that empower our national talent and attract the brightest minds from across the globe. This commitment to excellence will propel comprehensive development, establishing Dubai as a global benchmark for sustainable economic prosperity and resilience,” His Highness added.
In the 2023 index, Dubai retained its fourth position for the second consecutive year within the Cultural Interaction parameter, surpassing Tokyo, Istanbul, Madrid, Moscow, and Singapore. Meanwhile, London, New York, and Paris maintained the top three spots. The ranking is an outcome of Dubai’s commitment to enhancing its status as a cultural destination, a major hub for creativity, and one of the best cities in which to live and work. This effort aligns with Dubai’s cultural vision that aims to cement the emirate’s position as a global centre for culture, an incubator for creativity, and a thriving hub for talent. Dubai has also maintained its top regional ranking in Cultural Interaction.
The Global Power City Index (GPCI), which has been published annually since 2008, is a global benchmark for measuring the performance and competitiveness of global cities. It is used by governments, businesses, and individuals to make decisions related to investment, immigration, and travel. The index reflects the dynamic nature of cities and their ability to adapt and thrive in the face of global challenges. It provides a comprehensive overview of cities’ standing and impact on the global stage. The index comprises six parameters, including Economy, Research and Development, Cultural Interaction, Liveability, Environment, and Accessibility.
Dubai progressed in several sub-parameters within Cultural Interaction, ranking first globally in the Number of Foreign Residents and second in the Number of Luxury Hotel Rooms, reinforcing the emirate’s cultural offering, creative environment, and diverse tourist attractions.
The index further revealed Dubai’s excellence and leadership across various sub-indicators, encompassing work flexibility, low unemployment rate, and city cleanliness. It also highlighted Dubai’s success in hosting global exhibitions and events, attracting visitors and tourists, and increasing the influx of travellers through its airports.
Today, Dubai stands as one of the world’s most renowned cities in terms of economies, finance, business, tourism and travel. It is also one of the most successful cities in attracting talent, with more than 200 nationalities from various backgrounds living together in a tolerant and welcoming society. Dubai is also one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world.
Moscow’s approach towards the Israel-Hamas war, reflects an intention to achieve diplomatic balance among the two involved actors, without establishing any formal alliance in this war, writes Anant Mishra
As the Israel-Hamas war completes one month, Gaza remains a witness to a constant siege that has left countless civilians dead, with casualties mounting to over 300 Israeli Defence Forces killed. As human rights organizations condemn Israeli military encirclement of Gaza, civil society groups including Human Rights Watch term Israeli Defence Force offensives as a punishment even branding Israel as a war criminal, calling for international pressure to put an end to this siege, which threatens the lives of countless Palestinians trapped in an enclave.
With battle raging on, Moscow, which enjoys diplomatic relationship with Tel Aviv and engages with Hamas as well joins the list of countries that has refused to designate it a terror organization, maintaining a cautious response throughout the war. In fact, Moscow’s approach towards the Israel-Hamas war, reflects an intention to achieve diplomatic balance among the two involved actors, without establishing any formal alliance in this war. This is reflected from President Putin’s condemnation of violence induced by both Hamas and Israeli side and putting a blaming Washington’s failing diplomacy in the Middle East.
That said, President Putin has made his government’s position evident, when he reiterates the formation of the state of Palestine as necessary without having to choose between Iran and Israel.
Tracing Moscow’s diplomacy
To prevent an end to this war, Moscow’s diplomacy can be traced back to Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia’s, call for a humanitarian ceasefire on October 13, while presenting a draft resolution to the UN Security Council, condemning all hostilities targeted against civilians and acts of violence including terrorism. Taking a usual Muscovite stand, he blamed Washington for not sharing the responsibility of war and went on to blame Brussels on ignoring the violence induced by Irseali Defence Forces aircraft against innocent Gazans.
With the draft resolution facing a unanimous rejection from the UN Security Council, impact of rage in Moscow was reflected in Ambassador Nebenzia speech, where he condemned the Western bloc with nefarious intentions by preventing the draft resolution to pass. That said, since October 7 Moscow has established dialogue with Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon discussing various magnitudes of this crisis, including spillover effect on the region, prospective conditions for a ceasefire and growing Palestinian humanitarian crisis in the region.
By deeply engaging with regional players in the Middle East, Moscow may diversify politico-economic partnerships in the background of the Israel-Hamas war. The Israel-Palestine issue provides unique opportunity for Moscow to re-engage with Arab states at multilateral, bilateral or through existing regional platforms for greater dialogues. Once such example being Moscow’s economic engagement with Iraq, where it may serve the purpose of not only harnessing local Palestinian support but also strengthening greater politico-economic engagement, with an intent to reap greater benefits in the OPEC plus.
Interestingly, post Hamas ’execution of Operation al-Aqsa Flood, President Putin did not call Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and did not condole Israeli losses or expressed grief. Taking note of deepening relationship between Moscow and Tel Aviv over the years, which was reflected in Israel refraining on taking a Western perspective on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow did not reciprocate similar warmth to Israelis after Hamas’ unprecedented attack against Israeli settlements.
That said, Moscow is aiming to present a perfect solution by bringing ceasefire, even if it means momentarily, with a long term aim to host Hamas and Tel Aviv on a discussion table under Moscow’s initiative. It is desperate to implement a ceasefire, hence its eagerness to push UN Security Council for opening temporary engagement with the two parties. It hopes to exercise some leverage over Hamas and Tel Aviv, presenting itself as the perfect mediator, camouflaging strategic interests in the region.
With escalating violence, will a strategic balance fulfil Russia’s national interest in the region? For Moscow, engaging in Israel-Palestine conflict may prove to be counterproductive with an outcome which is nothing but unpredictable.
Predicting Moscow’s political gain
The Israel-Hamas war came at a time when US and its allies were invested strategically and militarily in Ukraine, which will relieve some pressure on Moscow. The extent of Washington’s engagement in the Middle East will also mean distraction from Russia’s on-going military engagement and its ability to engage Ukrainian military in battle. It will not be incorrect to say that, the Israel-Hamas war has given some moments of joy to military planners in Kremlin. Taking the note of on-going debates in the US Congress and elsewhere in Europe, President Putin has many causes to celebrate. One being, political leaders in the West calling for diversion of military and financial aid from Ukraine to Israel. If that happens, Kremlin’s military engagement will become fiercer, with more armour and APCs surviving the battle.
If that happens, political leadership in Washington may be forced to take such calculative measures of diverting US arms deliveries to Israel, cutting the existing military aid to Ukraine to benefit Israel. According to one scholar, who teaches Art of War at US Command & General Staff College, called this a meagre hypothesis, which will have no impact on Kiev as Washington may not divert the number of weapons as estimated, without impacting its arms distribution to Kiev. That said, tracing the trajectory of violence enraging every day, one may argue where Israel would require additional support in terms of weapons and finish the war in few days.
Strategically, Moscow’s balance can be interpreted as a sincere appeal to Southern/Eastern Economies filling the vacuum of power wherever necessary while posing as an alternate to Washington, which is evident in its decision by entering into Middle East political arena with a balancing act. Moscow aims to become a champion of the Israel-Palestinian cause, harnessing the essence of dissatisfaction within the Arab world while sowing the seeds of anti-American sentiments as a part of its pan-Arab policy. With anti-western propaganda is already fuelling certain Arab states, Moscow aims to capitalise from such sentiments by creating a narrative laid on a sense of abandonment by the West, particularly Washington, in the global arena.
That said, Moscow’s continued stance of a two state-solution makes it perfect to foster relationship independently and pose as a perfect entity to facilitate ceasefire negotiations without alienating the Arab or the international community. By negotiating a ceasefire, it will emerge from the shadows of an isolated state, demonstrating its diplomatic heft to influence the Middel East, thereby mocking the West. By presenting an alternate to Washington, Moscow aims to strengthen its soft power diplomacy in the Middle East, instilling trust in the eyes of the Global South by negotiating peace between Israel and Palestine, while demonstrating its resolve to Palestinian cause.
Mapping concerns for Moscow
By idolising itself as the champion for Palestinian cause, the Israel-Hamas war may prove to bring more troubles for Moscow than it anticipates. It is highly unlikely to project concerns expressed by Moscow on a possible spillover in the Middle East, how will escalation of violence in Gaza impacts Lebanon and Syria, will pose a serious challenge to Moscow’s soft power diplomacy in the region.
Forecasting a possible escalated engagement between Hezbollah and Israel (short of war), Hezbollah may need to reorganise its fighting strengths, which will involve abandoning its efforts from Syria and focussing on securing Lebanon. Such a scenario could potentially challenge Assad regime, weakening its flanks militarily, forcing public unrest in the light of greave economic hardships. This could force Moscow to provide substantial reinforcement to Assad regime (it could employ paramilitary forces or private military contractors) if situations deteriorate. This means, with Ukraine war still on-going, Moscow will be forced to divert it forces on two subsequent fronts. It remains unclear whether Moscow will divert its attention to achieve formidable outcome in the Israel-Hezbollah war, but lessons drawn from Moscow’s engagement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war, reflects otherwise.
That said, Moscow has always been vocal about maintaining close relations with Israel and Iran. In case of a direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, it is difficult to predict Moscow’s response, even if it means measuring its optimism to maintain greater relations with the two nations. It is safe to say that, even Moscow does not wish to be in a spot that forces them to choose between Tel Aviv or Tehran. The growing anti-Israeli sentiments in Russia point towards the rise of ultra-nationalists, which have been promoting pro-Iranian narratives since October 7 attack. It remains unclear on how far Moscow will go to balance its relations between the two states.
Furthermore, a direct confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran could result in greater Iranian focus on the region which may weaken IRGC’s potential support to Moscow’s war efforts on the Ukrainian front. This could mean fewer number of Iranian drones in Ukrainian airspace. That said, a potential conflict between Israel and Iran would seemingly engulf the entire Middle East, forcing Moscow to keep a watchful eye on potential spillover impact on members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Saudi Arabia & United Arab Emirates (UAE), in particular.
In the context of a pan-Arabian perspective, any escalation in the Israel-Hamas war weakens Moscow’s efforts in the region. As its repeated calls for ceasefire remains unheard, any further delay in peaceful negotiations between Israel and Palestine will force Arab states to only to question Moscow’s policy in the Middle East but mock it for its clouded judgement over possible peace negotiations in the region under its leadership.
With that, as the violence escalates in Gaza, will the war impact Moscow’s ambitious policy of maintaining perspective balance, benefit pan-Aarab states or bring more harm to its national interest? It is still too early to predict the impact of Israel-Hamas war on Moscow’s Middle East policy. But keeping Russia-Ukraine war and the perspective of a potential Israel-Hezbollah conflict in hindsight, Moscow’s approach to Israel-Hamas war will be of extreme caution.
(Anant Mishra specialises on Afghanistan, where he has served three combat deployments. He was adviser to key military and civilian leaders of the Ashraf Ghani government. Views expressed are personal and exclusive to India Narrative)
The post by the Department of Defence unit appeared to show an image of the submarine moving through the Suez Canal
The US Navy has dispatched a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East. The posting was revealed by the military in an announcement late on Sunday. The unusual revelation regarding the location of the ship, which can launch nuclear missiles, suggests a show of force intended to try to contain regional tensions amid the Israel-Hamas war.
“On November 5, 2023, an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the US Central Command area of responsibility”, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter. The Central Command area includes the Middle East.
The post by the Department of Defence unit appeared to show an image of the submarine moving through the Suez Canal.
Since the war broke out on October 7 between Hamas and Israel, the United States’ closest regional ally, Washington has moved significant military assets to the region, including two aircraft carriers and extensive fighter aircraft.
It has also announced the deployment of around 1,000 American soldiers, and the engagement of an unspecified number of special operations commandos, who are “advising” the Israeli military in their Gaza operations.
In addition, Washington has taken steps to beef up the defences of its Gulf allies, with a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system destined for Saudi Arabia and Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to be sent to Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder said the build-up was aimed at deterring regional escalation and protecting the US and its partners.
“Since that Hamas terrorist attack we’ve also been crystal clear that we do not want to see the situation in Israel widen into a broader regional conflict,” said Ryder in an October 24 press briefing. “And as you’ve heard President Biden, Secretary Austin and other senior US leaders say, our message to any country or group thinking about trying to take advantage of this situation to widen the conflict is don’t.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken travelled on Sunday for talks with regional leaders, including Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the occupied West Bank and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad.
US military assets have come under heavy fire from Iran-allied militias in Syria and Iraq, since October 7. During this time, such groups have waged dozens of attacks at US bases, with the most severe wounding 21 US military personnel in al-Tanf garrison in Syria and Al Asad Air Base in Iraq on October 17 and 18.
Each SSGN can carry 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, which is 50% more than what US guided-missile destroyers can carry and nearly four times what the US Navy’s newest attack subs can carry.
Each Tomahawk can carry a high-explosive warhead weighing up to 1,000 pounds.
“SSGNs can deliver a lot of firepower very rapidly,” Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Centre, told CNN in 2021.
“One-hundred and fifty-four Tomahawks accurately deliver a lot of punch. No opponent of the US can ignore the threat.”
The magnitude of that firepower was demonstrated in March 2011, when the guided missile submarine USS Florida launched nearly 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles against targets in Libya during Operation Odyssey Dawn. The SSGNs were used in combat for the first time during the attack.
The military makes few announcements about the movements and operations of its fleet of ballistic and guided missile submarines. The nuclear-powered ships, on the other hand, operate in near-complete secrecy.
The announcement sends a clear message of deterrence to Iran and its regional proxies. The submarine joins other US Navy assets already in the area, including two carrier strike groups and an amphibious ready group.
The USS Florida, one of the two East Coast-based SSGNs, was operating in the Middle East in April, according to the Navy.
The Navy announced in June that one of its two West Coast-based SSGNs, USS Michigan, would visit South Korea as a show of US commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies.
Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, on Sunday. In addition to emphasising the importance of protecting civilians and providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, Austin stated that the US was committed to deterring “any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this conflict,” a clear reference to Iran and the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah.
There have been numerous low-level attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed groups, but the US has made it clear that larger attacks will result in a major response.
According to Austin, the additional forces in the region are intended to “bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for US forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.”
“We will do everything and take all necessary measures to protect US forces and our interests overseas,” Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said October 23. “Again, no one wants to see a widening conflict, and that is our primary goal, but we will also never hesitate to protect our forces.”
PM addresses at the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment & India-Middle East-Europe Economics Corridor event during G20Summit, in New Delhi on September 09, 2023.
The feasibility and longevity of the Abraham Accords, along with the future prospects of IMEC are now challenged with the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, as the status-quo in the region has changed drastically after October 7 Hamas-led attack in Israel, writes Shubhda Chaudhary
On October 17, while speaking at the 3rd Global Maritime India Summit (GIMS), Prime Minister Modi reiterated the capacity of India for forging a historical consensus at G20 through unveiling of the India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC). Calling it a ‘catalyst for prosperity’ and a rejuvenation of the ‘old Silk Route’, Prime Minister launched the ‘Amrit Kal Vision 2024’ – a roadmap for India’s maritime blue economy.
He further elucidated that IMEC would entail several new possibilities – creation and expansion of multimodal hubs, inland waterways, island development, mega ports as well as international container trans-shipment ports. The timing of Prime Minister’s run aground address on Tuesday coincided with China convening the tenth anniversary of Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, with the presence of 4,000 world dignitaries and Russian President Vladimir Putin receiving a red carpet welcome.
When the grandiose multi-billion project of IMEC was unveiled on September 8 – at the sideline of India’s G20 Presidency– it was perceived primarily as United States’ and India’s competitive bid against China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), along with an attempt to symbolically integrate Israel within the West Asian economy and Gulf region. The Arab-Israeli normalization or the Abraham Accords – mediated by the White House in 2020 – had established diplomatic relations of Israel with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, even at the cost of ignoring the Palestinian question. The feasibility and longevity of these bilateral relations, along with the future prospects of IMEC are now challenged with the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, as the status-quo in the region has changed drastically after October 7 Hamas-led attack in Israel. Any form of much-talked about negotiation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, on the lines of Abraham Accords, seems untenable, especially at the cost of ‘Palestinian Question.’
The spillage of Israel-Hamas Conflict on Haifa Port
Gautam Adani-led Adani Ports and SEZ Limited along with Israel’s Gadot Group, that had acquired Israel’s Haifa port earlier this year for $1.2 billion dollars, faced a sudden drop in their shares on October 16. As Tel Aviv is immersed in ground assault at the Gaza strip, the growing backlog of cargo and ships at Haifa port has increased. Several investors are also concerned if Iran would be dragged into the war, which would also jeopardise the ongoing trade in Strait of Hormuz – as it accounts for 35 per cent of the global oil and gas trade.
In an effort to quell the fears of investors, the company issued a media statement, reading “We have taken measures to ensure safety of our employees and all of them are safe. We remain fully alert and prepared with a business continuity plan that will enable us to respond effectively to any eventuality.” Meanwhile, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) in its ship security advisory has raised the security level for Israeli ports to the highest. The threat of collateral damage to merchant vessels has been raised in Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
At the same time, it should be noted that a privately owned port at Haifa Bay – located a few kilometres away from Haifa port – is controlled by China’s Shanghai International Port Group under a 25-year contract. This technologically-sophisticated, 5G enhanced and completely automated port could be challenge to India’s investment in Haifa port. Yet, Beijing, too, is suffering after its ‘balanced’ diplomatic stance in the ongoing conflict. It has called Hamas as a “Palestine Resistance Movement’ instead of a terrorist organisation, therefore upsetting the White House and Tel Aviv.
“Uncertainty was still high in domestic market despite improved economic data, facing the double whammy of US employment data (driving up interest rates) and Middle East risks,” said Xu Wenyu, an analyst at Huatai Futures to Asia Financial. On October 10, the slumping of CSI One Belt & Road Initiative shares by 2% had sent jitters in the stock markets. 8.5% slump was recorded for state-owned China Communications Construction, which had invested $3 billion in West Asia in the past three years. But China’s Aerospace CH UAV Company, that sells drones, registered a growth of 6%. But the tremors felt in the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges cannot be over-ruled, especially those dealing with oil and fertiliser as well as infra-structure related companies. Meanwhile, predicting a forthcoming global recession, Bloomberg Economics has estimated that the oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel and the global growth drop to 1.7%. This recession could take about $1 trillion off from world output.
India’s manoeuvring of IMEC amidst the conflict
“The India-Middle East-Europe corridor can complicate regional geopolitics if it involves Israel,” Professor Ahmet Uysal, the Director of Middle Eastern Studies Center (ORSAM) in Ankara, had predicted recently.
“It may bring together the countries that are excluded from the project such as Oman, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt. Of course, China will not stay hands tied with a lot of resources and its current advancement in the race. The new trade corridor also has several black spots. One, the competitive power of India is no match with China that has 5 times bigger GDP in 2022. Secondly, who will fund this major project as India do not have enough resources to fund this project like China. Currently the USA and Europeans devoted most of their resources to the Ukraine war. Therefore, they will not be very eager to fund it as indirect benefactors of the project. The alternative source of funding would be the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE,” he further added.
“IMEC was predicated on the smooth sailing across the whole route especially through the Middle East. With this Israel-Hamas war, Riyadh has been confronted with the stark reality of the Palestinian issue which has put brakes at least in the short run. Most Arab countries won’t be able to defy their street. From India’s perspective, the maritime routes are already operating but any escalation of conflict will impact India significantly, let alone the IMEC, which in any case will take a while to materialize,” said retired Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, who has served in Indian missions in Cote d’Ivoire, Bangladesh, Mongolia, USA, Russia, Sweden and Nigeria, Libya and Jordan.
In his recent piece in Indian Express, Business Editor Anil Sasi pointed out that “in New Delhi, across some key infrastructure ministries, there is an acknowledgement that the project – spearheaded by the US – was perhaps announced prematurely, well before any implementation details were finalised, or communicated at a country level. Official timelines for the project’s completion or details on how it would be funded are not clearly spelt out yet. Clarity on the final alignment of the project is also awaited.”
“The promising elements of IMEC notwithstanding, the corridor leaves out several critical regional players, such as Egypt, Turkey, and Iran. Some concerns operating the IMEC may adversely affect the Suez Canal. Erdogan has already said there is no corridor without Turkey. That said, if complementary factors are prioritized over competing factors, this corridor, once it becomes operational, has a lot to offer to all stakeholders. As of now, BRI is the only game in town,” said Ehtesham Shahid, Editor at Emirates Policy Center.
Castle in the Air or a Dare to Dream?
During US President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Israel and meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he assured his support for Israel and stated, “I don’t believe you have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist.” At the same time, his close alignment with right-wing leaders might stir the pot, cause disillusionment and alienation of some progressive leaders in the Democratic Party. As he seeks re-election in 2024 US Presidential Elections, his image in the Arab world as a neutral interlocutor now stands questionable.
Meanwhile, Biden did stress on innovative projects like IMEC which aim at connecting the countries of West Asia and bringing a better future. The administration has submitted a proposal of $106 billion dollars request to Congress for military and humanitarian ‘aid’ to Israel and Ukraine as well as humanitarian ‘assistance’ to Gaza.
What exactly is IMEC?
IMEC would comprise two corridors: the eastern corridor will connect India to the Arabian Gulf while the northern corridor will connect Arabian Gulf with Europe. Along with laying cables for digital and electrical connectivity, it also aims to create cost-effective ship-to rail transport and pipe for clean hydrogen export. In the next 60 days, the participants are set to meet to expeditiously discuss the nuts and bolts of the corridor, especially the legal, financial, technical, design and regulatory-level standards. The financial cost and the nature of investments still remain in speculation.
“Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman mentioned a figure of $20 billion during the G20 announcement. It was unclear if that sum applied solely to the Saudi commitment,” said Hugh Miles, Founder at Al Shafie Miles and Arab Digest. Additionally, “it is too early to give an estimate of the cost. It will depend on several factors e.g., are the rail tracks perfectly synchronized/aligned or will they need to be changed? Similarly, what capacity electricity/data cables and hydrogen pipelines will be laid. This will depend on the potential size of the market,” said Rahul Chhabra, Former Secretary (Economic Relations), Ministry of External Affairs.
What route would IMEC follow?
A shipping route would be created from India’s Mumbai port or even the Gujarat Mundra port to UAE’s Jebel Ali Port in Dubai or Fujairah port. “I think it’s very early to decide these details of ports. Jebel Ali in Dubai, Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi and Duqum port in Oman are connected to rail plans so they are potentially good points. I think there will be a number of technical discussions since speed and cost are the main elements,” said Mohammed Baharoon, Director General at B’huth Dubai Policy Centre.
The goods would be then transported through standardised containers through rail route from Saudi Arabia to Jordan, finally ending at the port of Haifa in Israel. The plan would benefit Adani Group, which has paid $1.2 billion to gain control of the Haifa port in Israel, with a concession period till 2054. On the occasion of 30 years of diplomatic relations between India and Israel, the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had called this deal an ‘enormous milestone.’ Meanwhile, it should be noted that China’s Shanghai International Port Group, had won a 25-year tender to operate at Port of Eilat, located close to Haifa way back in 2018. This had generated harsh opprobrium from the United States, thereby coaxing Israel to look towards India, rather than chase competitive Chinese bids.
Returning to the functioning of IMEC, the Indian goods would then be transported from the Haifa port to Greece (via shipping route), finally to Italy, France eventually ending at Germany. In 2022, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Transport Saleh bin Nasser Al-Jasser had already proposed the creation of a 5000 km railway line from the Saudi city of al-Qurayyat, located in the province of al-Jawf to the Jordanian borders.
“It should also be noted that a Hejaz railway, constructed in 1908 by the Ottoman Empire, did connect Syria to Saudi Arabia with a branch line to Haifa. In 1917, the railway was attacked by British Army officer T.E. Lawrence during the first World War,” said retired Ambassador Zikrur Rahman, Founding Director of the India Arab Cultural Centre. He added that patches of the railway track can be still seen now, and perhaps they can be repaired and remodelled for IMEC.
What is US gain?
“A great deal of analysis points to the notion that this initiative was a way for the US to counter the Chinese belt-and-road initiative. While I think that is true, it is more pertinent to note that the US is diversifying its role in the Middle East, Indian Ocean and Mediterranean. It also wants to invest in infrastructure and not just play a role in being the main security umbrella in the region,” said Abdulaziz Alghashian, Lecturer of Politics at University of Essex, UK.
“A chief reason is to ensure the US is integrating India with nations to its west. With the most direct land routes from India to Europe having to traverse Pakistan and Afghanistan, the economic integration we’d all like to see is stymied by geography. Dedicated shipping channels could help quite a bit,” said Rick Rossow, Senior Fellow/ Wadhwani Chair in U.S. India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.
“Saudi Arabia and India clearly seem interested, and the US likes it because it takes attention away from China’s BRI. But I have no idea if such grand schemes are practical or can succeed. For a long time, there has been a proposal to build the Kra Canal in Southern Thailand and Malaysia, which would hurt Singapore. But despite many conversations and proposals, nothing ever came about, even though it included allied countries and what was a small project. Singapore did lobby against it, but not sure if that’s the sole reason it did not take off,” said Salil Tripathi, Senior Adviser – Global Issues, Institute for Human Rights and Business.
Exhibitors from the region include RAK Ceramics, the world’s largest ceramics brand; interiors and dining experience creators BelVida Home; and tabletop glassware manufacturer EMID IGT LLC…reports Asian Lite News
More than 5,000 businessmen and women from the Middle East, including 1,000 from the UAE, are set to head to Frankfurt for Ambiente – the world’s largest product sourcing event for the hospitality and retail sectors – amid continued growth in the region’s tourism sector.
Ambiente, taking place 26-30 January 2024, is anticipated to welcome 60 per cent more regional visitors than pre-pandemic, underscoring the Middle East’s sustained demand for products, design and fit out for hotels, restaurants, resorts, shops and workspaces.
The UAE is Ambiente’s biggest Middle East source market, followed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon and Kuwait. The event will host 170 participating nations, more 4,500 exhibitors and over 150,000 visitors – including investors, designers, procurement specialists and entrepreneurs – in total.
Exhibitors from the region include RAK Ceramics, the world’s largest ceramics brand; interiors and dining experience creators BelVida Home; and tabletop glassware manufacturer EMID IGT LLC.
Speaking in Dubai, Philipp Ferger, Vice President Consumer Goods Fair Messe Frankfurt Exhibition,said: “Ambiente proudly operates as the world’s biggest event of its kind, with the 2024 edition set to surpass all previous editions in terms of visitors, floor space, products and features. The Middle East’s expanding presence at Ambiente underscores the region’s growing demand for the very latest in design, innovation and products for existing and upcoming projects, as well as an increasing appetite to join world-leading suppliers and industry peers for discussion, networking and idea-sharing.”
Julia Uherek, Vice President Consumer Goods Fair Messe Frankfurt Exhibition, added:
“As Ambiente gears up to shape the future of the HORECA sector, we look forward to welcoming our Middle East visitors for five days of dealmaking, debate and learning.
Ambiente will feature a special focus on ESG, with an entire section dedicated to sustainable sourcing, eco-friendly design, recycling initiatives and the latest green trends through Ambiente’s Ethical Style programme, where participants can showcase sustainable products, materials and ideas.
The show also boasts an impressive speaker line up, five academies and some of the world’s most famous designers, including Elena Salmistraro, the Ambiente Designer 2024.
Ambiente is operated by Messe Frankfurt, which is headquartered in Germany. Its Dubai-based Middle East business operates a growing number of high-profile trade fairs in the region, including Beautyworld, Paperworld, Automechanika and Intersec.
Israel, which is immune to Egyptian demands, will have to win over Cairo to stop any smuggling and to arrest any Hamas officials who might try to flee to Egypt. In case Tel Aviv makes a proposal, Egypt will determine the terms of that agreement, and put up a heavy bargain to bail out itself from the economic crisis, writes Mohammed Anas
Sinai is Egypt, roared Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli while interacting with a band of journalists on Tuesday, adding that Cairo will allow neither being subjected to a forced reality nor the resolution of a regional issue at its expense.
Madbouli echoed what President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi emphasized earlier that it is important that the Palestinian people remain steadfast and present on their land. “Their struggle is cause of all Arabs,” Sisi had said strongly, in response to speculations that that Cairo may allow Gazans to migrate to Sinai instead of getting killed in refugee camps and flee to already overfilled camps in South Gaza where all basic needs like food, water, medicines, power supply are at the mercy of the Israeli government.
With Egypt not showing any bend and Israel being adamant on dragging the fight without facilitating humanitarian assistance, barring few trucks, an aid convoy is stuck as stand by at Rafah crossing from Egypt’s Sinai into Gaza. Hundreds of litres of blood collected largely from Egyptians, Arabs and Turks in a blood donation drive organised by Jordan, UAE and Turkey also stands unused along with these trucks. But there is no emergence of truck between regional powers that can decide use of this humanitarian assistance.
Egypt controls the Rafah crossing, the only official entry point into the Gaza Strip not controlled by Israel. In the past, Egypt has opened and shut this crossing to put pressure on Hamas.
Cairo’s call for ceasefire after heavy Israeli bombardment and civilian casualties in Gaza have been ignored by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, a constant demand in Israeli discourse has been that Egypt must adjust Gazans into Sinai “to help create Palestinian state and mitigate flare-up possibilities.” This demand has resurfaced in discourse ever since the current conflict broke out.
Taking serious cognizance of it, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit, an Egyptian, urgently appealed to UN Secretary-General António Guterres to condemn “this insane Israeli effort to transfer the population.”
Israel, which is immune to Egyptian demands, will have to win over Cairo to stop any smuggling and to arrest any Hamas officials who might try to flee to Egypt. In case Tel Aviv makes a proposal, Egypt will determine the terms of that agreement, and put up a heavy bargain to bail out itself from the mounting economic crisis that will fester more, once the conflict leaves a flood of humanitarian needs.
The United States can assist Egypt financially, mostly via its influence over international financial institutions, to which Cairo owes tens of billions of dollars. The United States can also assist Egypt in its fight against instability in Sinai.
Egypt has been a key negotiator in all recent Israel-Gaza (Hamas) conflicts. But, this time the conundrum for Cairo is more challenging. The public opinion is building up against the present government as daily gory news is trickling in from Gaza.
Such has been pressure on the al-Sisi government which is bracing for December presidential election that the North Sinai governor Maj. Gen. Mohamed Abdel-Fadil Shousha had to issue a directive for local authorities “to list schools, housing units and vacant land to be used as shelters if required.”
Sisi has called for an international summit to take place Saturday to discuss the future of Palestine.
It is believed and being reported by the Egyptian media that the summit will aim to focus on a regional solution to the conflict and especially exhort Arab nations to come forward for settling the Palestinian question. Egypt, according to analysts, wants all its concerns addressed before agreeing to play an active role in the Israel-Hamas endgame, or post-Hamas administration of Gaza.
“A major refugee influx is a red line for a president fighting for reelection in December. Egyptian lawmakers view it not only as a security risk but an impossible squeeze on an economy near bankruptcy and facing reforms through a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout (Cairo is now asking the IMF for more),” wrote Nosmot Gbadamosi, an expert on African affairs, in the Foreign Policy magazine.
Egypt’s inflation reached almost 40 percent in August, while its borrowing costs shot up following the Israel-Hamas war as investors weighed a possible Egyptian liability for refugees, almost half of whom are children. Egyptian officials said the country is already hosting 300,000 Sudanese refugees.
Apart from possible influx of Gazans, Israel’s “dictatorial” attitude, another headache for Egypt is Hamas. Cairo’s relationship with the groups has always been fraught, even though it has helped negotiate with the group for occasional ceasefires and prisoner exchange. The group, as we know well, emanated from the ideology of the extremist Muslim Brotherhood group, which despite facing ban in Egypt, originated and has been flourishing there. Hence no senior Hamas leader has ever found sanctuary in Cairo; they had been shuffling in other destinations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.
For more than a decade in northern Sinai, Egypt has been fighting an insurgency that is composed of jihadis, Bedouin, and criminal gangs. Gaza smuggling operations have helped fund and arm the insurgents, and Egypt wants them stopped. Even more, Egypt fears that a flood of refugees from Gaza would destabilise an already troubled part of Sinai, putting demands on jobs and resources and further radicalising the local population.
“Now, with Israeli PM Netanyahu’s decision to make Gaza a Hamas-free zone, the Egyptian regime fears of a power vacuum being filled by other militant groups which will have massive spillover effect in the Sinai. Co-opting with another group may be a challenge. Moreover, the national security concerns are heightened in Egypt regarding massive displacement happening in Gaza towards. It may lead to permanent refugee influx in Egypt. This trend not only has the ability of demographic inversion in the country but also gives to more of Palestinian resistance in Egypt. With upcoming elections and dwindling economic prospects, Egypt cannot afford to host Palestinians in its territory. All these concerns along with limited regional influence puts Egypt in a difficult situation and minimises its role in the mediation process. Not by itself at least. It will require massive dependence on the Mideast Quartet (US, UK, Russia and EU) to work out in the end,” assessed Professor Manjari Singh of Amity University, Noida.
It is hard to predict who will have political power in Gaza in the coming months, but whoever emerges victorious, will first have to negotiate a deal with the Egyptians.
India’s Stand
India, an assertive rising power, has registered its voice on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict loudly – strong condemnation of terror perpetrated by Hamas and cessation of loss of lives in subsequent Israeli military action. However, the conflict, if escalated, may change the diplomatic matrix vis-à-vis the Middle East, and there lurks concerns for India, and the world.
India till now enjoys friendly ties with all Middle East countries, barring Qatar for the moment. Its relationship with Israel has been growing even before both the countries established consular links in 1992. Palestine considers India a pal, and India has been so till today, and fervently supports the two-state formula as the political solution to the Israeli-Palestine conflict, with the condition that East Jerusalem will be Palestinian capital.
India is an active part of the I2U2 grouping that has Israel, the UAE, and the US as other partners.
Similarly, India’s relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been in directions that compete with that of China which forged several partnerships in the region but ever since the conflict ensued has been conspicuously absent from the scene.
India’s stance on Israel-Hamas conflict
Shahid Jamal Ansari, the director of Centre for West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, said that India has taken a divergent position from its earlier stand and is tilted towards Israel after the ongoing crisis. However, it will entirely depend on the outcome of the crisis how India’s relations with Middle East countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Israel will take shape. India doesn’t have enmity with any of these states and thus there is no possibility of future bitterness, but if the crisis continues to escalate and engulf the larger region, it will be difficult to predict any future scenario,” he said.
His colleague, Professor Hemayun Akhtar Nazmi, said that India’s relations with Israel should not come at the cost of Palestine. “India has carefully walked the diplomatic labyrinth in West Asia. While its relations with Israel have seen only improvement since their inception in 1992, India hasn’t abandoned the cause of Palestine either,” he said.
On being asked how the present crisis will impact the connectivity and trade links which were recently proposed and are expected to bear great outcome for India and the Middle East, he added that “connectivity projects like India-Middle East Economic Corridor and other trade ties will definitely be jolted as the current crisis is enormous and its influence potential is equally proportional.”
Perils and Prospects of Projects
Two key projects, besides other partnerships, that New Delhi has invested to be linked with the Middle East are the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) and newly-envisaged the new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
The INSTC have suffered setbacks because of the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh. The defeat of Armenia, a key partner in the project, seemingly has threatened the territorial integrity of Syunik, a southern province and a key area for the INSTC. If this conflict widens to include Turkey and Iran, it will further spell doom for the project.
The IMEC has kindled hopes of new horizons, albeit with the possibility that it would take New Delhi somewhat away from Iran towards Arab countries. But, the sudden spurt of Israel-Hamas conflict has given birth to serious doubts about the geography of the project’s implementation, at least for an early one.
The horrific events that transpired in Israel and Gaza have completely changed the dynamics in the region as public opinion is growing shrill over daily casualties being reported. The Saudi-Israeli connection is at the centre of this reorganisation. The success of IMEC, which was hailed as a way to improve relations between the two nations, depended solely on their cooperation in regional development, at the very least. However, Saudi Arabia is not in a haste to resume normalisation negotiations, as seen by its interaction with Iran after the crisis and its silence on Hamas. This means that the forward momentum of the program will be stalled for the foreseeable future.
Israel-Iran Balance
India fundamentally does not see its connections with Iran and Israel in zero-sum terms; both are tools for achieving a semblance of regional order, and speaking with one does not entail that one cannot speak with the other. India’s partnerships in the region have been beset by tension regarding the purpose of India’s relationships with the Arab world and Israel. The I2U2, which was the precursor to the IMEC and has consisted of India, Israel, the US, and the UAE, was frequently perceived by Israel as an alliance driven by “fear of Iran,” even though India was simultaneously expanding its cooperation with Iran. In other words, India has ties to both Iran and Israel and does not feel the need to choose a side.
Nashwa Al Ruwaini, a trailblazing business leader, has a remarkable track record of achievements in her hands-on efforts to promote, empower, and facilitate the integration of women into society…reports Asian Lite News
During the second Annual Middle East Women Leaders’ Summit & Awards 2023, Dr. Nashwa Al Ruwaini, CEO of Pyramedia Consulting and Media Production Group, was recognized for her outstanding contributions as a female leader in the community, highlighting her role in promoting sustainable development.
Nashwa Al Ruwaini, a business pioneer, boasts an impressive record of successes in on-the-ground work to support, empower, and integrate women into society. She was the first Emirati to receive the “Mother Teresa” award in acknowledgment of her charitable work and efforts to improve the living conditions of women and children.
On the occasion of her honoring, Dr. Nashwa Al Ruwaini stated, “There are no limits to what a woman in the UAE can achieve. In our country, all necessary means and capabilities are available to support women in the nation’s rise and to shape the future.” During her speech, she emphasized, “This recognition is not just an appreciation for me personally, but is considered an appreciation for every Arab woman who succeeded in realizing her dreams and contributing to the progress and prosperity of the region. The Arab woman is strong and inspiring, capable of making change and influencing her surroundings.”
Palestinian Women
Al Ruwaini dedicated the award and honor to Palestinian women, emphasizing their resilience and determination in the face of daily challenges. “The Palestinian woman, despite the complex circumstances, continues to work daily to build a better future for her children and her family. Her strength and determination serve as an inspiration to us all, reminding us of the importance of perseverance and progress even under the toughest conditions,” she said. Al Ruwaini continued, “History bears witness that the Palestinian woman has always been a bridge of life and hope in facing the tough challenges. She educates generations, preserves her heritage and culture, and contributes to preserving her people’s identity. If we ever seek a paragon of resilience and challenge, undoubtedly, it is the Palestinian woman who represents the struggle of every woman on this earth. Today, I hope this award symbolizes solidarity and support for Palestinian women.”
Al Ruwaini concluded her speech by saying, “The success stories of Arab women are marked by depth and challenge. Each of them has a unique story where they overcame difficulties. Throughout history, Arab women have demonstrated their strength and independence in the face of various challenges, whether they be social, economic, or even political. These stories not only inspire women in the region but also inspire women worldwide. The successes achieved by Arab women showcase how determination can break barriers, surpass boundaries, and serve as an inspiration for future generations to follow in her footsteps and build on her legacy.”
Women Leaders
The second Annual Middle East Women Leaders’ Summit & Awards stands as a prominent platform highlighting the achievements of female leaders both within and outside the region. This summit aims to bring together distinguished leaders, enhancing knowledge and deepening constructive relationships, in an ambitious step towards achieving gender balance and promoting diversity in leadership positions.
Participating in the summit is HH Sheikha Jawaher bint Khalifa Al Khalifa, founder and chairman of “Green Aventurine Holding” company.
During the celebration, prominent female leaders who changed the rules and set new standards for leadership were honored, highlighting the achievements of women who worked diligently and innovatively to pen exceptional success stories.
This summit and its associated awards were established to enhance deep dialogues and expand communication opportunities, enabling pioneering women leaders and key decision-makers to exchange expertise and knowledge in the Middle East region.
US top official said that these troops will provide capabilities, explosive ordnance disposal, communications and other support enablers for forces already in the region….reports Asian Lite News
Amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the United States is sending additional troops to the US Central Command region, which covers the Middle East and parts of Africa, Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said on Tuesday (local time).
Ryder said that these troops will provide capabilities, explosive ordnance disposal, communications and other support enablers for forces already in the region. He said that additional US troops are not going to Israel.
While addressing a press briefing on Tuesday (local time), he said, “I can announce the decision to deploy an additional 300 troops to the US Central Command region from home stations in the continental United States. These additional troops will provide capabilities, explosive ordnance disposal, communications and other support enablers for forces already in the region.”
The region monitored by the US Central Command encompasses 20 countries, including Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and northern Red Sea, and the five republics of Central Asia.
“Please note that we will not discuss specific deployment locations for these forces, but I can confirm they are not going to Israel and that they are intended to support regional deterrence efforts and further bolster US force protection capabilities,” he added.
Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said that US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, during his remarks at the Senate testimony, said the US will continue to provide critical security assistance to Israel.
He said that Austin said that the focus of the US is on providing air defence capabilities, precision-guided munitions and more interceptors for the Iron Dome system.
According to Ryder, Austin said that the US is coordinating closely with the Israelis to help secure the release of the hostages held by Hamas, including American citizens.
Ryder said that Austin highlighted that the US immediately provided military advisors to offer best practises for integrating hostage recovery into Israel’s operations.
Lloyd Austin said that the US has strengthened its force posture across the region to deter any state or nonstate actors from escalating this crisis beyond Gaza, according to Patrick Ryder.
While addressing the press briefing, Ryder said Austin continues to remain in close contact with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant by phone and received updates regarding Israel’s operations in Gaza.
Ryder said, “The secretary commended the Israel Defense Forces’ commitment to hostage recovery” and re-emphasized the importance of conducting operations in accordance with the law of war. He also stressed the imperative to protect innocent civilians and allow unfettered humanitarian aid into Gaza. (ANI)
Russian FM Sergey Lavrov held talks with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit
Russian position is not just aimed at fishing in the present troubled waters and emerging as a mediator in what is fast proving to be the biggest crisis in the Middle East in decades, not to mention an unmitigated humanitarian disaster, where most of the West has shown itself to be less than impartial, writes Vikas Datta
A day after the Hamas attack on Israel and the relentless Israeli bombardment that followed, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit chose to head for Moscow to discuss the crisis, and at a joint press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov unequivocally declared that a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace and security, not fighting.
Later that week, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani was in Russia, and in a joint press meeting, President Vladimir Putin while castigating Hamas for its cruelty, fired a salvo at the US as he stressed that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East exposed Washington’s inability to resolve conflicts by seeking to “monopolise” the peace settlement and trying to “impose its own solution”.
If that was not all, nearly three weeks into the conflict, Russia sent the Israeli government into a fit of apoplexy by hosting a Hamas delegation, led by its senior political council member Moussa Abu Marzouk, for “talks on the release of hostages, especially those with Russian citizenship” and paying no attention to the shrill Israeli rhetoric to expel them forthwith.
Coincidentally, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani was also in Moscow at that time and while he met the Hamas leaders, it is not known whether any tripartite meeting was held.
FM Lavrov during talks with Foreign Minister of Iraq Fuad Hussein
Connecting the dots, it is evident that Russia, which has avoided taking a maximalist position on attributing the blame for the current spell of blood-letting in the Middle East — like most of the world save the Western powers and their allies — aims at playing – and proving it can play – its own independent role in the region where it traditionally had sway in the Soviet era.
It has sought to underline its credentials by showing it is one of the few powers that has contacts with both Israel and Palestinians, including Hamas, and Iran.
But, the Russian position is not just aimed at fishing in the present troubled waters and emerging as a mediator in what is fast proving to be the biggest crisis in the Middle East in decades, not to mention an unmitigated humanitarian disaster, where most of the West has shown itself to be less than impartial.
Its aim is both tactical and strategic – on one hand, the ongoing conflict diverts attention – and aid – from Ukraine of the Western powers who have rushed to support Israel unconditionally – and only mention the Palestinian plight as an afterthought – unmindful of the blowback, while helping Moscow to gain inroads among regional powers where public sentiment is increasingly swinging against the West, including in key US allies like Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states.
Secondly, the conflict ties the US, which had turned its attention away from the Middle East under its “pivot to Asia”, back to the region – for the foreseeable future – as Washington’s move to achieve calm under the “Abraham Accords” lies in tatters with the prized aspiration of bringing Saudi Arabia onboard to complement the two Gulf states and Morocco now virtually dead. This will only benefit Russia – and China, as even the US will find it difficult to focus on the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, the increasing calls by many nations to revive the two-nation solution will mean the US will have to spend more diplomatic capital here.
Russia has also made it clear that it has no intention of deploying any military force into the region and wants to stress on diplomatic solutions, such as revival of the “Middle East Quartet” to enable negotiations between Israel and Palestinians.
But, Russia did not only begin its renewed Middle East outreach with the Hamas-Israel conflict, notwithstanding its intervention on the side of key ally, President Bashar Al Assad in the Syrian Civil War, but it clearly seems to be a work in progress.
Weeks before the Hamas attack, it played host to Libyan National Army commander, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls a large amount of the restive country, and he and President Vladimir Putin discussed the national and regional situation in detail.
Haftar’s visit came a month after a Russian Defense Ministry delegation, led by Deputy Defence Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. visited Libya and met him to discuss the potential for collaboration in the fight against international terrorism and other issues of mutual interest.
Amid this, the US Central Command chief had visited Libya and even met Haftar in what was seen as what Russia was up to – in what was once a close client, and has been in turmoil since the Western intervention to force out Colonel Gaddafi.
Meanwhile, Russia also flexed its muscles on the current Middle East crisis at the UN.
After its proposal – the first in the UN Security Council – on stopping the conflict did not secure the necessary number of votes, it abstained from the Brazilian statement, which was vetoed by the US, and then, went on with China to veto the US’ own draft proposal, leading to the powerful organ remaining stymied on the growing crisis.
President Putin with Iraq PM Muhammed Shia’ Al Sudani
The very next day, Russia said efforts to agree on a “balanced” United Nations Security Council resolution on the Israel-Hamas conflict should continue.
Even before it sent Israel into paroxysms of fury by hosting Hamas, its stand had evoked “displeasure” from the Israeli Foreign Ministry, RT reported, quoting sources, as Israeli diplomats told their Russian counterparts that “Russia’s conduct and the remarks against Israel don’t correspond with the severity of the situation Israel is in…” and took exception to the “role Russia is playing”, noting that its proposed resolution in the UN Security Council did not include “an explicit condemnation” of Hamas.
An unfazed Russia backed UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, whose remarks on the background of the crisis had led an apoplectic Israel to demand he quit, with its Deputy Ambassador to the UN Dmitry Polyansky noting that while there can be no justification for what Hamas did, it is not appropriate to call it “unprovoked”.
“We cannot close our eyes to what is happening there, we must be absolutely honest,” Polyansky said. “Otherwise the UNSC cannot count on having any role in a future settlement.”
