The analytical danger is to look at India’s tragic problems of today, but not at the enduring changes lying beneath the surface that will continue to make it the “greatest rising power” in the world …. writes Dr John C Hulsman
Despite the damage caused by the record rise in COVID-19 cases, India remains the “greatest rising power” on the planet and has a number of fundamental strengths that will make it one of the “most powerful” countries in the world, according to a report published in Arab News.
Rebuffing critics of India’s handling of the pandemic, American foreign policy expert Dr John C Hulsman in an op-ed for Arab News has said that India’s political power structure is stable and both Modi and the BJP are politically secure in a way that other “developing countries can only envy.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other ministers during a meeting (Photo PIB)
Due to a substantial rise in virus cases, India has witnessed a strain on its health infrastructure and subsequent rebuke from some sections of the western media.
Hulsman has argued that the analytical danger is to look at India’s tragic problems of today, but not at the enduring changes lying beneath the surface that will continue to make it the “greatest rising power” in the world.
“First, India’s political power structure is remarkably stable. Surprising most of the foreign policy commentariat (but in line with my firm’s political risk predictions), the BJP actually gained seats during the May 2019 national parliamentary elections,” the American expert said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi participates in the India-EU Leaders’ Meeting through video conferencing on May 08, 2021. (PIB)
“Coupled with these political advantages, India’s demography affords it a mighty relative advantage. It is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2024. Crucially, more than 50 percent of India’s population is below the age of 25 and 65 percent is under the age of 35,” he added.
Pointing to India’s sturdy figures, the foreign policy expert said that economic numbers “simply do not lie.” “By 2050, it is estimated that India will account for a startling 15 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP). Coming out of the COVID-19 economic abyss, the subcontinent is set for a golden era of renewed growth,” Dr Hulsman said.
He also reminded how the International Monetary Fund estimates India’s economy is on course to grow by an impressive 11.5 percent this year, which is the only major global economy predicted to experience double-digit growth.
Modi reviews availability of oxygen, medicines
“Long-term political stability and an economic and demographic lift off already in progress make the essentials of India strikingly clear. This is the rising power in today’s world — one that will only grow in importance as the years progress.”
There will often be chaos on the surface but India’s enduring and essential political risk trajectory is decisively favourable, the expert concluded. (ANI)
He was informed that the government is in regular touch with the manufacturers to enhance production of medicines and extend all help needed…reports Asian Lite News
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday chaired a high-level meeting to review availability and supply of oxygen and medicines to tackle Covid.
He was informed that the government is in regular touch with the manufacturers to enhance production of medicines and extend all help needed.
The Prime Minister was told that the government is actively monitoring the supply of drugs being used in the management of Covid as well as mucormycosis. He was also informed about the current production and stock of APIs for each such drug and that states are being provided medicines in good quantities.
The Prime Minister was also apprised that the production of all drugs including Remdesivir have been ramped up significantly in the last few weeks.
“India has a very vibrant pharma sector and the government’s continued close coordination with them will ensure proper availability of all medicines,” the Prime Minister said.
Oxygen cylinders
He also took stock of the situation on oxygen availability and supply in the country.
It was noted that the supply of oxygen is now more than three times the supply during the peak of the first wave.
The Prime Minister was briefed about the operations of Oxygen Expresses and sorties by IAF planes. He was also informed about the status of procurement of oxygen concentrators, oxygen cylinders as well as the status of PSA plants being installed across the country.
He also remarked that states should be asked to operationalise ventilators in a time-bound manner and resolve technical and training issues with the help of the manufacturers.
Minister of Health Dr. Harsh Vardhan visits the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) to review the COVID-19 preparedness, in New Delhi (PIB)
Of the 162 oxygen plants sanctioned last year under pressure from the PMO, only 35 are in production as yet. Thanks to the Prime Minister’s intervention in April, nearly 90 will begin to operate by the close of May, with many more on the way. In the same way, the supply of drugs for Covid – 19 will be ramped up, writes Prof. Madhav Nalapat
On 30 November 2017, a paper on the origins of SARS coronavirus appeared in the journal PLOS Pathogens. Almost all 17 of the “equal” co-authors were from China, an exception being Peter Daszak, a British-born resident of the United States. An associate of China’s famed “Bat Woman”, Shi Zhengli, Daszak had been active in ensuring that large amounts of funding from the US flowed into the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He was supported in this by Dr Anthony Fauci, who has emerged as the lead figure in the fightback against the Covid-19 pandemic.
Given Daszak’s longstanding links with the Wuhan institute, it may have been prudent for him to recuse himself from the WHO team sent weeks ago to investigate whether the Wuhan Institute was responsible through negligence in releasing SARS-CoV-2 into the human population. Published papers indicate that the Institute was working for years on precisely such a coronavirus, and the funding arranged by Dr Fauci was intended to promote “gain of function” research into the virus, i.e., make it deadlier and perhaps more transmissible (perhaps in order to develop vaccines against such a strain).
Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairing a review meeting on COVID-19 situation through video conferencing. (PIB)
Although a US State Department team flagged the Wuhan Institute of Virology as having “defective and sloppy procedures”, it does not appear from the records that this and other such reports alarmed Dr Daszak, or if it did, such apprehensions were shared with Dr Fauci. It is because of the published papers that came out of the work of the numerous coronavirus-related experiments in the Wuhan lab that suspicions grew that the catastrophe originated from an inadvertent leak from the institute lab experimenting with the virus. The WHO study group (in which Peter Daszak was made a member) all but ruled out such a possibility on the basis of a visit to the lab more than a year after the leak of the virus was suspected to have taken place. No surprise, therefore, that no evidence of such a leak was discovered by the team, whose reliance on data supplied by their Chinese hosts was, in keeping with WHO policy under its current leadership, total.
Discussions with experts resident in the US, who are cognizant of the centrality of India in the ongoing battle to retain the initiative in the Indo-Pacific, make it clear that the country is key towards ensuring the rollback of the Covid-19 pandemic across the world. They spoke on the basis of anonymity, out of worry that some of the facts mentioned may create adverse circumstances for them, were the identities of the sources made public. They have therefore not been named.
WHO FOLLOWED CHINA BLINDLY
On 23 January 2020, President Xi Jinping ordered the complete lockdown of Wuhan in an effort to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This was perhaps the first time such a measure had been adopted anywhere in the world, and the WHO soon fell in line, recommending a similar total lockdown in all countries where the coronavirus had spread. This was the consequence of flights operating out of the PRC to cities across the world even ten weeks after the virus had entered the general population of Wuhan in particular. President Xi succeeded in ensuring that the effects of the pandemic on China were much lower—at least on record—than in almost all other countries.
Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan inspecting the addition of 500 Oxygenated Beds at the Sardar Patel COVID Care Centre & Hospital, in Chhatar (PIB)
Paying heed to advice from the WHO, officials in India advised Prime Minister Narendra Modi to implement the biggest lockdown in the history of mankind. Nearly 1.3 billion people were anchored to the locations they were in for weeks as a consequence of the withdrawal of transport services. At the same time, again as a consequence of the incessant warnings belatedly issued by the WHO, a mood of panic spread amongst the populace concerning the very disease that had been intensively researched at the Wuhan Institute of Virology but which Peter Daszak and others were emphatic did not “originate” in that facility, leaving open the question of where this alternative source was. Dr Anthony Fauci, who has emerged as the principal strategist in the battle against the pandemic, appears to have broadly agreed with Daszak’s view that the Wuhan lab was innocent of blame.
Dr Fauci has in his toolkit the instruments that he first developed in order to fight the AIDS pandemic of the 1980s. Together with others, they spent billions of dollars (much of it from the Gates Foundation) in a search for a vaccine that would be effective against a disease that was a death sentence to all who caught it. Their associate was Seth Berkley, who now heads the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (GAVI) after having been, for decades, President of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI).
Dr Anthony Fauci
Although the vaccine-focused strategy failed in the case of AIDS, media reports are that the same methods used by Dr Fauci and colleagues such as Dr Deborah Birx in the AIDS pandemic may be proving effective in the Covid-19 epidemic. A vaccine is similar to a sniper rifle, creating antibodies that hit directly at the virus. Those developed in the US, India, the UK and Russia seem to be effective in at least preventing serious consequences from SARS-CoV-2 even while not eliminating the possibility of infection altogether. India opted to route most of the vaccines supplied externally through the COVAX facility of GAVI, so that the WHO, other multilaterals and the Gates Foundation, rather than India got most of the credit internationally for the supply. It is unlikely that the generous act by the Health Ministry (of routing much of vaccine distribution through COVAX rather than India directly supplying needy countries) will bring any closer the MEA’s quest for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.
Thus far, much of the policy adopted by the Health Ministry in India are those that originated in the toolkit of the WHO. It may be helpful for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to look outside the WHO, especially into the possibility of developing a set of medicine “cocktails” that could be useful in saving lives during the pandemic and in facilitating swift recovery by a victim. Apart from AIDS, where therapeutic cocktails produced in India account for over 90% of the medications used to preserve the lives of sufferers, another disease that was brought under control not by vaccines but by preventive and curative therapeutics is malaria, a disease that thus far has defied efforts at developing a vaccine protecting against its spread by more than 30%.
Whether it be Dexamethasone, Remdesivir, Ivermectin, Favipiravir or other anti-virals, more robust use by PM Modi of the powers available to government under Indian law could prove a game changer in the global battle to roll back the Covid-19 tide, including in India. Those in the establishment who have fallen prey to the blandishments offered by US-EU Big Pharma need to be identified and prevented from further damaging the Indian interest. Unless effective action is taken against the present “tsunami” (in the words of Prime Minister Narendra Modi), expectations of foreign investment into India by 2024 of up to a trillion dollars may dissolve. Already the UK has banned travellers from India from entering the country, while the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta has advised US citizens not to travel to India until advised that it is safe to do so.
Given the immensity and complexity of conditions in the country, a centralised policy on essential measures is doomed to failure. Among the causes of the present unprecedented and unexpected spike in SARS-CoV-2 caseload is the fact that Prime Minister Modi had to spend considerable amounts of time on the campaign trail and was therefore left with less time to supervise the officials in charge of managing the pandemic.
These officials have usually relied on the WHO and experts favoured by that agency for advice, despite the unsatisfactory performance of the WHO throughout the pandemic, beginning in November 2019, when its field units were in a position to know that a new form of SARS had struck the human population in parts of China. They could have then warned the world rather than claim for months afterwards that there was no epidemic and that in any case, the virus was barely infectious, and therefore international travellers from affected regions of the PRC were safe to admit.
BUREAUCRATIC BOTTLENECKS MUST GO
Judging by the situation prevailing in many parts of India, accurate predictions of the April-May requirement of drugs, vaccines and oxygen do not seem to have been made. It took the intervention of PM Modi to ensure that bureaucratic bottlenecks in the multiplication of plants for the production of these essentials were removed. Of the 162 oxygen plants sanctioned last year under pressure from the PMO, only 35 are in production as yet. Thanks to the Prime Minister’s intervention in April, nearly 90 will begin to operate by the close of May, with many more on the way.
In the same way, the supply of drugs will be ramped up such that by July, the pandemic would ebb to levels that are safe for near-normal operation. By this is meant normal operations while at the same time adhering to the Covid-19 protocols such as washing of hands, social distancing and masking. Should such normalcy be restored, by the close of the year, the flow of additional jobs should pick up substantially, especially if the Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India expend 5% of the national income in targeted demand-creating stimulus measures over three years (2020-2023) and follow Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s directive to remove regulatory and administrative roadblocks to output and services across all sectors. Also needed is further reduction and simplification of taxes, if necessary through a mid-term budget.
The PM directly and through his able External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, needs to convince President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris that Washington should resume the supply of ingredients essential for ramping up the vaccine and therapeutics programs of companies in India. The US is not safe unless the whole world is safe from SARS-CoV-2, and only India can ensure this through its unique capabilities in the mass production of medicine cocktails and vaccines.
NO MORE DISTRACTIONS
Now that state elections are almost over, the BJP needs to leave Prime Minister Narendra Modi alone to tackle the job for which he has been elected, which is to provide an exceptional administration for the people of the country. The present tsunami was likely the consequence of the distractions caused by the spate of elections, as well as the decision by some regional leaders of the BJP to not intercede with the organisers of the Kumbh Mela to get them to show their devotion by ensuring that Covid-19 protocols be maintained, preferably at home.
After Modi publicly intervened, the Kumbh was cut short by the organisers. India needs to be spared such activities for the next few months rather than once again suffer the unbearable economic pain of massive lockdowns. Idle speculation that PM Modi was going to announce another long lockdown at a few hours’ notice on 20 April was an attempt at causing another wave of mass panic. This was quelled by the Prime Minister’s assurance that lockdowns were not contemplated. Just as the crisis of 1990-91 led to the reforms of 1992-95, the crisis of 2020-21 needs to lead to still more major reforms during 2021-24. In this way, the present healthcare crisis can be overcome and the economy expanded so as to create jobs for tens of millions.
India’s socio-political, cultural and historic ties with Bangladesh is inextricably linked. Indian’s have sacrificed their blood fighting along with Bangladeshis to liberate the country from an oppressive colonial power 50 years ago.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh — his first after Covid-19 outbreak across the world — is high on both goodwill and symbolism. His visit to Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s mausoleum — a first by any Indian PM — besides paying respects to Bangabandhu, is also a celebration of shared values of human freedom, global political order and democracy.
Both New Delhi and Dhaka are on the cusp of history with political leadership on both sides agreeing on the realpolitik of commerce, strategic interests and mutual benefit.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi inspecting the Guard of Honour, at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021. Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Ms Sheikh Hasina is also seen. (PIB)
Bangladesh isn’t an impoverished, cyclone-ravaged country anymore. With Bangladesh’s return to democracy in 1991, relations have gone through highs and lows. However, the 12-year rule of Sheikh Hasina has seen the successful economic transformation, macroeconomic stability, expansion of social security. In fact, according to an IMF Report, the South Asian neighbour’s per capita income is expected to remain on a par with India till 2025.
This also indicates that a lot is at stake for Bangladesh and India. As both economies grow, there is a lot to gain from well-structured economic and political cooperation.
Multilateral decisions take time and efforts to fructify, but their success rests on the bedrock of goodwill. For India, Bangladesh is the threshold of India’s calculus of trans-Asian highways that will link India to Vietnam by road and could become an economic engine for growth in Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. Dhaka is also India’s access point to develop northeastern states. The road map for both the plans is on the anvil.
Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi paying homage at the National Martyr’s Memorial, Savar, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021. (PIB)
Since 2014, bilateral relationship with Dhaka has achieved over half a dozen milestones. The Land Boundary Agreement is considered a major pact. Now, five out of six pre-1965 rail links have been restored, besides connecting the two countries through Maitree Bridge on the Feni river. Several pacts to revive inland water and trade transit has also been inked.
Bangladesh is now India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia with exports to Bangladesh in FY 2018-19 at $9.21 billion at imports at $1.04 billion. Bangladeshis tourists to India outnumbered all tourist arrivals from Western Europe in 2017.
However, to make recent gains between the two neighbours irreversible needs both the countries to work together on key strategic areas.
Narendra Modi being welcomed by the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Ms Sheikh Hasina and other dignitaries on his arrival at the National Day programme of Bangladesh, in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Sheikh Hasina hailed NarendraModi’s neighbourhood policy, saying that Bangladesh receiving 2 million Covid vaccine doses from India establishes this principle, reports Sumi Khan
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Friday expressed her gratitude to her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, saying the government of India always stands by Bangladesh through thick and thin.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Dhaka on Friday on a two-day visit to Bangladesh to attend the celebrations of the country’s 50th year of liberation from Pakistan and the 100th birth anniversary of its founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the father of Sheikh Hasina.
“I’d like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Modi Ji and the people of India,” Hasina said.
On the last day of the 10-day celebrations to mark the country’s 50th year of liberation from Pakistan, Modi and Hasina enjoyed the music of legendary classical vocalist Pandit Ajoy Chakravarty at the National Parade Square in Dhaka, along with the President of Bangladesh, Abdul Hamid, and others.
The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi being received by the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Ms. Sheikh Hasina, on his arrival at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021. (PIB)
Hasina said, “The Prime Minister of India made us glorified with his priceless presence in this pandemic period. The people of Bangladesh are grateful to Modi Ji and the people of India, who served the most for the people of Bangladesh in 1971.”
Hasina added that India must play a leading role in building a politically and economically prosperous South Asia. “We can make this region a hunger-free, poverty-free zone. We will achieve the goal set by the UN by 2031,” she said.
“I am grateful to India for nominating Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman for the prestigious Gandhi Peace Prize in 2019. India is our friendly neighbour, and the two countries share a long standing relationship. The government of India had provided all kinds of assistance to the people of Bangladesh who took refuge there to save their lives from the atrocity, rape and arson of the Pakistani army in 1971. The Indian government and its people gave shelter, served food and assured medical help to around 1 million helpless people from Bangladesh,” she said.
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi paying homage at the National Martyr’s Memorial, Savar, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021.
“In 1971, many army officers from India shed their blood for the independence of Bangladesh. I respectfully remember their contributions. India’s cooperation will never be forgotten. I’m personally grateful to the people and government of India. After all my family members were killed during the war, I was at my husband’s workplace in Germany with my sister and children. I had lost everyone. There was no arrangement to stay in that country. At that time, then Prime Minister of India Indira Gandhi and Yugoslav leader Marshal Tito gave us shelter,” Hasina said.
The Bangladesh premier also appreciated the policies of Modi, and his slogan “Neighbours first and foremost”, saying that Bangladesh receiving 2 million Covid vaccine doses from India establishes this principle.
With the inauguration of the Maitri Bridge, India will now be able to use the Chittagong Port and Mongla Port, Hasina assured to Modi.
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi signing the visitor’s book at the National Martyr’s Memorial, Savar, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021.
“May Bangladesh-India friendship be long-lasting for all kinds of cooperation,” she said.
Bangladesh President Abdul Hamid said, “During my stay in India for nine months during the liberation war in 1971, I myself witnessed how the government of India and its people gave shelter to 10 million people and refugees from Bangladesh. I hope all the unresolved issues will be settled soon. Bangladesh is always grateful to India.”
The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi in a group photograph with the members of the Minority Community in Bangladesh, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021.
The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi meeting the eminent young achievers from different walks of life, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021.
The foreign Minister of Bangladesh, Dr. A.K. Abdul Momen calling on the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on March 26, 2021.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi places hand made Mukut on Ma Kali. Mukut made of silver with gold plating. Hand made over three weeks by a traditional artisan.
US President Joe Biden at the Oval Office in White House, Washington D.C., (Picture: @POTUS/Twitter)
The climate summit will be a key milestone on the road to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow, reports Arul Louis
US President Joe Biden has invited 40 heads of state, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to join him for the World Leaders Summit on Climate to be hosted by his administration on April 22-23.
The other leaders including Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh and Lotay Tshering of Bhutan have also been invited to the virtual meeting to highlight the urgency of action to combat climate change, the White House said on Friday.
European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson were invited.
So were Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“The Leaders Summit on Climate will underscore the urgency, and the economic benefits, of stronger climate action. It will be a key milestone on the road to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow,” the White House said.
US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris
The virtual summit will be live-streamed for people everywhere to watch the proceedings.
Biden has made fighting climate change a pillar of both his foreign and domestic policies and one of his first actions on taking office in January was to have the US rejoin the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
The summit is meant to position Biden, and the US, as the global leader in meeting the climate change challenge and boost his stature.
“By the time of the summit, the US will announce an ambitious 2030 emissions target as its new Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement for limiting the damage from climate change, the White House said.
Biden has asked all US government agencies to come up with ways to cut greenhouse emissions and harness green energy.
He appointed former Secretary of State John Kerry to be his international emissary for climate change reflecting the high priority it has on his agenda.
John Kerry in Brussels to renew climate cooperation
He is reaching out to the leaders of China and Russia, who he has harshly criticised over their human rights record and their international rivalry with the US to work together on the climate agenda despite their differences.
Biden wants countries around the world to take steps to limit emissions to a level that would limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius “in order to stave off the worst impacts of climate change”, the White House said.
“The President urged leaders to use the Summit as an opportunity to outline how their countries also will contribute to stronger climate ambition.”
India will be under US pressure to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by being shown as the world’s third-highest emitter of greenhouse gases after Beijing and Washington.
However, that picture is misleading as on a per capita basis the US emissions were nearly nine times that of India.
John Kerry in Brussels to renew climate cooperation
An Indian emitted only 1.96 tonnes of greenhouse gases in a year, while an American was responsible for 16.56 tonnes.
For all the posturing and preaching, Biden or the climate change activists in the US are not going to bring down the US per capita emissions anywhere near the Indian level while demanding that India cut down its emissions overall.
India is already promoting green energy to eventually eliminate fossil fuel-generated electricity.
It is reportedly working on a goal of achieving a net-zero emissions by 2050. Net-zero emission is achieved by removing all greenhouse gases that are put out by various means ranging from aforestation to technologies to capture the emissions.
The Climate Summit will be Modi’s second multilateral virtual meeting with Biden.
Earlier this month, Biden and Modi were joined by Prime Minister Yoshihide Sugo of Japan and Scott Morrison of Australia at a summit of the Quad.
