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OPEC sticks to oil demand growth forecasts

OPEC said this year’s global oil demand, expected to reach 102.1 million bpd, will surpass pre-COVID-19-pandemic levels…reports Asian Lite News

Robust global oil demand growth has been forecast in 2023 and 2024 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), thanks to “resilient” global economic growth.

In its monthly oil market report for September, published on Tuesday, OPEC said it expected world oil demand to rise by 2.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, and by 2.25 million bpd next year.

This represents annual growth of 2.45 percent this year, and 2.2 percent in 2024. The forecasts remain unchanged from last month.

OPEC said this year’s global oil demand, expected to reach 102.1 million bpd, will surpass pre-COVID-19-pandemic levels.

The oil producer group said that despite numerous challenges, including high inflation, elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions, “ongoing global economic growth is forecast to drive oil demand, especially given the recovery in tourism, air travel and steady driving mobility.”

“In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption,” it added.

In the monthly report, the organization also stuck to its previous forecasts for world economic growth: 2.7 percent in 2023, and 2.6 percent in 2024.

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OPEC expects 2.2% growth in oil demand in 2024

The world economic growth in 2023 is to remain broadly unchanged at 2.6%, according to the organisation, with the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth expected at 2.5%…reports Asian Lite News

OPEC Thursday predicted world oil demand to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, to 104.25 mb/d in 2024, raising its 2023 forecast to 2.4 mb/d, following an upward revision of about 0.1 mbn/d from last month’s assessment.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the global organisation said the World GDP growth in 2024 is forecast at 2.5%, slightly below this year’s expected growth level of 2.6%.

“Key oil-consuming countries, including China and India, along with some other developing economies in Asia, will continue their healthy growth levels and be responsible for around half of next year’s global economic growth. This is under the assumptions that general inflation will continue retraction in 2H23 and 2024. Tight monetary policies are also assumed to continue and key policy rates to peak by the end of 2023. Moreover, central banks are expected to engage in more accommodative monetary policies by 2H24.”

The world economic growth in 2023 is to remain broadly unchanged at 2.6%, according to the organisation, with the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth expected at 2.5%.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised up in the report by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2022. Based on the initial world oil demand and non-OPEC supply forecast for 2024, demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 30.2 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d higher than the 2023 level.

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4 countries consulted to join OPEC

Al Ghais said that consultations with new countries from outside the organisation contribute to strengthening the cohesion of OPEC…reports Asian Lite News

OPEC chief Haitham Al Ghais has revealed that the organisation’s aspirations to increase the number of member states, as Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei and Mexico have been consulted so far to join the organisation.

In a statement to the Emirates News Agency (WAM), on the sidelines of the 8th OPEC International Seminar which kicked off today in Vienna, Al Ghais said that consultations with new countries from outside the organisation contribute to strengthening the cohesion of OPEC, indicating that the organisation does not aim to join a certain number of countries, but targeting countries that have the same strategic objectives of preserving and stabilising oil markets.

The OPEC Secretary-General noted that the four countries that were consulted have been in solidarity with the organisation since 2017, adding that “they have gone through qualitative challenges during the collapse of the markets and the pandemic in 2020, and therefore all of these countries have the common goal that is in the interest of stabilising the oil markets.”

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‘OPEC aims to stabilise market, reduce environmental impact’

The Secretary-General noted that ‘Inclusivity’ relates to ensuring all voices are heard in discussions on energy transitions, developing and developed countries, producers and consumers….reports Asian Lite News

Secretary-General of OPEC Haitham Al Ghais has reiterated the organisation’s keenness to stabilise the market, reduce the environmental footprint and move towards a “sustainable and comprehensive energy transition”.

During the welcoming speech at the 8th OPEC International Seminar in Vienna, Al Ghais said, “This is a seminar focused on the future – the future of our industry; the future of our planet. This forward-oriented outlook informs the theme of our Seminar, ‘Towards a Sustainable and Inclusive Energy Transition’.”

He added that the concept of ‘sustainability’ is essentially about balance, stating that “it relates to how we fulfil the needs of current generations without compromising the needs of future generations; while ensuring a balance between the three pillars of sustainability: economic viability, environmental protections and social equity.”

The Secretary-General noted that ‘Inclusivity’ relates to ensuring all voices are heard in discussions on energy transitions, developing and developed countries, producers and consumers. It means adhering to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. It means there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to the climate challenge; instead, there are multiple pathways to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Al Ghais added that the theme of this Seminar looks to the future and “given that forward-facing orientation, I am delighted that we are joined by the architects of our world’s future: young people and students from across the globe. We encourage you to maximise the opportunity that this Seminar presents.”

He asserted the importance of oil in the global energy mix and the industry’s primary role in reducing carbon emissions, in addition to OPEC’s efforts to achieve market stability, reduce the environmental footprint, and move towards a “sustainable and comprehensive energy transition.”

“Of course, as an industry, we want an emissions-free future. Harnessing technologies that can do this will be one of the predominant themes of this Seminar,” he added.

Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea and President of the OPEC Seminar, spoke highly of the 2023 edition of the event.

“The 2023 edition is truly a prestigious event, with so many ministers from both producing and consuming countries, so many other distinguished and high-level speakers, the leaders of tomorrow, and hundreds more delegates from all over the world,” Ondo said.

He added that the seminar is part of OPEC’s continuous efforts to promote dialogue and cooperation with all industry stakeholders. “I have no doubt that the next two days of the OPEC International Seminar will add to the long history of this palace,” he said.

Ondo also stated that the seminar will examine and discuss the main challenges and opportunities facing the oil industry today and in the decades to come. “This is a critical topic, and I am grateful to all of you for coming together to discuss it,” he said.

The OPEC International Seminar is a two-day event that brings together government officials, industry leaders, and experts to discuss the future of the oil industry. The seminar is being held from July 5-6, 2023.

Energy ministers reiterate market stability

The oil and energy ministers of the OPEC met on the sidelines of the seminar. During the meeting, the ministers took the opportunity to review market conditions and agreed to continue consultation with their non-OPEC counterparts, through already put in place mechanisms including JMMC and ONOMM meetings, in their continued efforts to support a stable and balanced oil market.

The ministers also expressed their appreciation to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for extending its 1 million barrels per day voluntary cut for the month of August. They also thanked the Russian Federation for its additional voluntary reduction of exports by 500,000 barrels per day and Algeria for its additional voluntary cut of 20,000 barrels per day for the month of August 2023.

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OPEC calls for inclusive dialogue on energy sustainability

Al Ghais lauded the UAE’s support for the organisation, stating that since joining OPEC, the country has played a leading role in all its affairs….reports Asian Lite News

Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), highlighted the importance of promoting dialogue in the global energy scene, with the participation of both developed and developing nations, as well as all stakeholders.

The objective is to develop a shared vision that addresses the triple challenges of energy sustainability while considering all energy sources and technologies, respecting the interests of all nations, listening to all opinions, and relying on multiple pathways to reduce global carbon emissions, he added.

In a statement to the Emirates News Agency (WAM) ahead of the upcoming 8th OPEC International Seminar in Vienna, Al Ghais said that the challenges of energy sustainability include goals related to energy security, cost affordability and the imperative to reduce emissions.

OPEC believes in the necessity of directing investments towards emission reduction technologies, such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, the circular carbon economy, reducing methane emissions and flaring, direct air capture, hydrogen production and integrating renewable energy sources in oil and gas operations, along with the use of smart technologies to enhance the energy efficiency, he added.

Al Ghais noted that the average global production of oil and natural gas reached 100 million barrels per day and 4,000 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2022, while OPEC’s projections indicate that by 2045, the global economy will double. The population will increase, so the demand for all energy sources, including oil and natural gas, will rise by approximately 23 percent.

Regarding the UAE’s role in supporting OPEC’s efforts, Al Ghais lauded the UAE’s support for the organisation, stating that since joining OPEC, the country has played a leading role in all its affairs. This leadership has been evident through the UAE’s contributions to the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with OPEC+, he added.

He also highlighted the cooperation and dialogue between OPEC and the UAE, which resulted in the signing of an agreement between the organisation and WAM, which will be an official media partner of the 8th edition of the OPEC International Seminar scheduled on 5th and 6th July in Vienna.

Some 50 high-level speakers from energy-producing and consuming nations will attend the seminar, including Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, and heads and executive directors of international organisations and companies from both the public and private sectors.

Al Ghais welcomed the guests at the seminar, which will be held at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna. They will include constructive discussions on the energy sector and its developments, in addition to other important issues, such as energy security, energy transition and attracting investment.

Regarding the hopes and aspirations for the upcoming COP28 hosted by the UAE at the end of 2023, Al Ghais said that the conference would be a key opportunity to unify the world towards practical and ambitious solutions to address the phenomenon of climate change. Therefore, it is expected to be a practical conference focused on action, implementation and inclusiveness, based on scientifically supported innovative solutions and principles that promote equality and inclusivity.

Al Ghais added that COP28 has the potential to achieve ambitious, fair and balanced results, with climate action ensuring a just transition by supporting developing countries fairly and equitably while considering national circumstances and priorities.

It should also focus on climate financing, knowledge sharing and technology transfer to encourage innovation and develop technological solutions that inspire ambition and remove barriers to collective climate action, he further added.

He stressed that since the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972 (Stockholm Conference), OPEC and its member countries have fully prioritised environmental and climate change issues.

The organisation has been actively participating in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since its launch in 1994, engaging in negotiations under the clear vision that developing countries are often the most affected by climate change.

Al Ghais stated that OPEC and its member countries are also committed to the goals and principles of the seminar and will play a key role in its implementation as active partners in achieving fair and realistic solutions through the belief that the oil and gas industry can play an important role in addressing climate change, including through investing in energy efficiencies and technological innovation, such as carbon capture and storage.

Regarding the global energy sector’s efforts to combat climate change, Al Ghais said that many oil-producing countries are adopting renewable and environmentally-friendly energy sources and reducing carbon emissions.

He also affirmed the importance of fulfilling related global financial commitments, such as the pledge of advanced countries to provide US$100 billion annually to assist developing countries in climate action under the UNFCCC, which will help advance the global transition towards more sustainable energy systems.

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OPEC, Japan discuss current global energy supplies

The two sides reviewed the expectations of global demand, highlighting the significance of establishing a dialogue…reports Asian Lite News

Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and Japan Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Kei Takagi, discussed the current global energy supplies and future prospects for oil markets.

During their meeting at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna, the two sides reviewed the expectations of global demand, highlighting the significance of establishing a dialogue between senior officials of OPEC and Japan.

Japan, the world’s fourth biggest importer of crude, is looking forward to enhancing energy security and working to add renewable resources to its consumption mix as it aims to become carbon neutral by 2050.

It is worth noting that OPEC has proven expectations of growth in oil demand in light of the current economic conditions in the world.

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Oil prices surge after OPEC+ output cut

UAE among members of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Plus announced a surprise cut in oil production that will exceed one million barrels a day….reports Asian Lite News

Oil prices have surged and surpassed USD 85 per barrel after several of the world’s largest oil exporters announced surprise cuts in production.

This is the first time since March 7 that the price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil surged. The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2023 delivery on London’s ICE surpassed USD 85 per barrel, Russian News Agency TASS reported.

As of 1:09 am Moscow time on Monday, the price of Brent oil went up by 6.43 per cent to USD 85.03 per barrel, it was reported.

By 1:12 am (Local Time), Brent was trading at USD 85.41 per barrel (6.46 per cent). The price of futures contracts of WTI crude oil for May 2023 delivery went up by 6.21 per cent, to USD 80.37 per barrel.

The increase came after Saudi Arabia, Iraq and several Gulf states said on Sunday they were cutting output by more than one million barrels a day.

Oil prices soared when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but are now back at levels seen before the war began.



However, the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower.

High energy and fuel prices last year helped to drive up inflation – the rate at which prices rise – putting pressure on many households’ finances.

The reduction in output is being made by members of the OPEC+ oil producers. The group accounts for about 40 per cent of all the world’s crude oil output, the BBC reported.

Saudi Arabia is reducing output by 500,000 barrels per day and Iraq by 211,000. The UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman are also making cuts.

A Saudi energy ministry official said the move was “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market”, the official Saudi Press Agency said.

Nathan Piper, an independent oil analyst said the move by OPEC+ appeared to be an attempt to keep the oil price above $80 a barrel in the medium term, given that demand could be hit by a weakening global economy and sanctions have had a “limited impact” on restricting Russian oil supplies, the BBC reported.

UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei announced that the country will voluntarily cut its oil output by 144,000 bpd, effective May through the end of 2023, in coordination with some countries that are parties to the OPEC+ agreement.

“This voluntary initiative is a precautionary measure taken to ensure market balance and comes in alignment with the production cut agreed upon during the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM), held on 5th October 2022,” the minister said in a statement. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold the Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), on Monday via video conferencing.

Meanwhile, Iraq will voluntarily cut oil production by 211,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of this year, the country’s Oil Ministry said in a statement.

The move is a “precautionary measure” taken in coordination with some countries of OPEC+, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to stabilise the global oil market, it added on Sunday.

Ministry data show that Iraq is producing more than 4.5 million bpd, Xinhua news agency reported.

Oil prices have risen since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February last year, benefiting oil-exporting countries, including Iraq. However, oil prices declined in the past few months due to fears of lower demand in global markets.

Iraq’s economy relies heavily on crude oil exports, which account for more than 90 per cent of its revenue.

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OPEC urges energy investment for market stability

OPEC Secretary General said the oil and gas industry, which will retain its share as a critical component of the energy mix, must transform and decarbonise operations…reports Asian Lite News

Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has said that the energy industry needs considerable investment to meet rising global demand and ensure market stability as energy security concerns return to the fore.

He said the oil and gas industry, which will retain its share as a critical component of the energy mix, must transform and decarbonise operations.

As COP28 comes up in Dubai later this year, “We at OPEC stand fully behind the UAE to bring on board everybody,” he said during the annual CERAWeek global energy forum in Houston.

Security of supply

“The key thing that we focus on is always trying to make sure that there is stability, there’s adequate supply to the market,” said the Secretary General, warning of the “underinvestment” in hydrocarbons.

“We’ve seen a significant shortfall in investments in the oil sector,” he said.

It can take a long time to come into actual energy production since the typical span is a “few years at best” and up to seven years before new projects come online, he explained.

As the global economy doubles in size, energy demand will increase by 23 percent, but “there is no imaginable way renewables can alone do this (meet the demand),” he told the audience, Xinhua news agency reported.

Stating that the energy industry needs $12.1 trillion in capital investment, Ghais said, “Unless this happens, I’m afraid, honestly, that we could be facing issues in the future with regard to energy security and, accordingly, affordability.”

“We are investing already, and we urge and call others to invest. It’s a global responsibility that OPEC cannot shoulder on its own,” he added.

Security of demand

Ghais said it is not a concern that Russia redirects its crude oil exports while Middle East exports are increasingly going to Europe, citing his 30 years of experience in the industry.

“It’s quite normal to see this,” he said, “We’ve always seen redirection of flows, whether it’s related to geopolitical events or demand centers being created and others disappearing. So this is typical where we have a redirection in flows from the east to the west or the west to the east.”

According to the forecast from OPEC, oil demand will increase by 2.3 million barrels a year, with the majority of the rise in demand coming from China and India, the Secretary General said, Xinhua news agency reported.

However, the global energy market is big enough despite improving demand, said Ghais.

“What concerns us more is actually the slowdown we see in Europe and the US in terms of the financial situation and the inflation,” he said, noting that a divided market is emerging on the demand side.

“There is phenomenal demand growth in Asia,” he said, and Russia’s oil production has been “resilient and managed to find new homes.”

He added that without the existence of OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, there would be more instability and volatility.

“With security of supply, there is also a requirement for security of demand, and the tools fit in together like hand and glove,” said the OPEC chief.

Energy transitions

OPEC sees energy transitions as “absolutely an opportunity,” Ghais said.

“I don’t think it’s a threat. Again, it was something that we are already embracing. We believe this is an opportunity for us to meet our Paris Agreement goals,” he said.

“I think it’s important to look at the whole issue of energy transition, which I prefer to call energy transitions, by the way, not transition, with a sense of reality. There is no one size fits all solution,” he added.

Ghais also said that energy transitions should “focus on different countries’ capabilities, circumstances, their potentials, their financial capabilities, and so forth.”

“When we talk about transition here in the US or in Europe, it means nothing to other people around different parts of the world. What we take here for granted, like switching on the light, is not available in many other parts of the world,” he said, noting that there are a million Africans who have no access to electricity.

The five-day CERAWeek will conclude on Friday and is focused on the dual challenges of meeting the world’s growing energy demand while reducing emissions.

More than 7,000 participants, including policymakers, industry leaders, company executives, investors and researchers from over 80 countries and regions, joined the forum, according to organiser S&P Global.

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India to lead demand for oil till 2045

OPEC report reveals India will take the leading role in crude requirement, along with other Asian and African, reports Animesh Singh…reports Asian Lite News

After China driving the initial demand growth, it is going to be India which will take the leading role in crude requirement, along with other Asian and African countries, as per an OPEC report.

According to the OPEC’s “World Oil Outlook 2045” report, released during the ongoing India Energy Week here on Tuesday, besides India, fairly robust growth during this period is also projected for African and other Asian countries where economic progress, urbanisation, industrialisation, and vehicle fleet expansion will be fastest among all regions.

This, the report said, “will result in respective demand increases of around 1.4 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, for India, Africa and Other Asia respectively during the 2040-2045 period”.

Even by 2045, oil demand will still grow at a rate of more than 2 per cent per annum in India and Africa and 1 per cent per annum in Other Asia region, the report, which charts a roadmap for oil sector from 2022 till 2045, said.

In another significant observation, the OPEC report said that it would be a global challenge to meet oil-related investment requirements of $12.1 trillion by 2045.

“Cumulative oil-related investment requirements are projected at $12.1 trillion over the entire 2022-2045 period (in 2022 US dollars). This is slightly higher than assessed in the World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2021, as upward-revised demand projections and assumed cost inflation in the short- and medium-term more than offset the forecast period being one year shorter,” it said.

Upstream needs make up $9.5 trillion, while downstream and midstream requirements are $1.6 and $1 trillion, respectively, it noted.

The report further pointed out that “risks to the economic outlook, high inflation, energy policy goals confronted with energy security challenges, and questions regarding a perceived shortfall in upstream investment, coupled with persisting and new geopolitical uncertainties, means that significant risks regarding the longer-term liquids supply outlook remain”.

Detailing a roadmap for the future, the report said that “in the current geopolitical context, besides a pressing need to increase climate ambitions, countries are increasingly focused on energy security issues. There is now more attention on an energy sustainability trilemma, related to affordability, energy security and reducing emissions, evidenced in many countries publicly recognising the need for inclusive and resilient approaches, including through more investments in oil and gas projects going forward”.

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OPEC+ recommends staying course on oil output policy

The JMMC comprises oil ministers from the OPEC+ countries. It has no decision-making power but provides policy recommendations for the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the group’s decision-making body…reports Asian Lite News

Leading oil officials on Wednesday recommended to maintain the current oil output policy of OPEC+, the OPEC and its allies, amid an uncertain global economic outlook.

The OPEC+ agreed in October 2022 to cut production by 2 million barrels per day from the following month until the end of 2023. The cut equals to about 2 per cent of the annual global oil demand.

Members of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) “reaffirmed their commitment” to the current output plan at a virtual meeting on Wednesday and “urged all participating countries to achieve full conformity and adhere to the compensation mechanism,” according to an OPEC statement.

The JMMC comprises oil ministers from the OPEC+ countries. It has no decision-making power but provides policy recommendations for the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the group’s decision-making body. It has also the authority to request additional OPEC+ ministerial meetings “at any time to address market developments,” according to OPEC.

The JMMC has reviewed the oil production data for November and December last year and “noted the overall conformity” for the OPEC+ countries, OPEC added.

The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 3. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting, where the group will formally decide its output policy, is set for June 4.

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