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TAPI clears hurdles after Putin aide’s Kabul visit

Russia hints headway in TAPI gas pipeline project after Putin key aide visits Kabul..reports Asian Lite News

Putin’s Special Envoy Zamir Kabulov’s two-day visit to Kabul last week has fuelled a renewed push to revive the stalled project of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. The project has been facing an uncertain future after the return of Taliban in Afghanistan, could finally see some progress in the coming months.

Even though the new regime in the Afghan capital gave signals that it remains keen to continue the work on TAPI project, which has already seen more lows than highs since the first TAPI Summit held in Ashgabat in December 2010, no efforts were made to show any progress on the ground.

“As the situation in Afghanistan stabilises, the participation of domestic economic operators in the construction and operation of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is possible,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday while detailing the outcomes of high-ranking diplomat’s January 12-13 visit to Kabul.

Kabulov held consultations with Afghanistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Mottaki and other representatives of the Taliban leadership on an entire range of issues of bilateral relations, with an emphasis on the development of trade, economic, cultural, educational and humanitarian ties.

“The focus is on mutually beneficial cooperation in such sectors as energy, agriculture, transport, infrastructure, industry, mining, in particular the organisation of regular commercial deliveries of Russian fuel and agricultural products to Afghan companies,” stated the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Moscow maintained that the leadership of Afghanistan highly appreciates its efforts to assist the Afghan people in building a peaceful, independent and economically self-sufficient state.

Taliban, meanwhile, asserts that it remains firm on Afghanistan’s ambition of developing an energy partnership with Russia at a time when its energy giants like Gazprom have been hit by sanctions from the Western countries.

With a total length of approximately 1814 km – 214 km of which falls in Turkmenistan, 774 km through Afghanistan, and 826 km in the territory of Pakistan before reaching Fazilka in India’s Punjab – the mega TAPI gas pipeline project would connect Turkmenistan, one of the largest energy suppliers in the world, with the South Asian countries.

However, as reported by IndiaNarrative.com last year, India has made it clear that it is not just because of a “difficult neighbourhood” that work on the massive pipeline, which will have the capacity to transfer 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year, has been stalled.

“It is on record that India has some concerns about the commercial or the business aspect of the TAPI pipeline, and that is being discussed. GAIL is a stakeholder. So, let me simply put it that we have some concerns on the business principles, on the commercial side, apart from the logistical challenges which are very apparent,” Sanjay Verma, Secretary (West) in the Ministry of External Affairs, said just ahead of then President Ram Nath Kovind’s visit to Turkmenistan in April 2022.

Earlier this week, the CEO of the TAPI gas pipeline project Muhammetmyrat Amanov and Turkmenistan Ambassador to Kabul Khoja Ovezov held a series of meetings in Kabul with the representatives of the Taliban government’s Ministry of Interior Affairs, National Defence, and the Directorate General of Intelligence on security concept for the first phase of the project in Afghanistan.

They also met with the Afghan Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum Shaikh Shahabuddin Delawar to discuss the commencement of the land acquisition process and development of gas distribution system in Herat province which will be the first phase of the TAPI project in Afghanistan.

The Taliban government reportedly assured the officials of TAPI project that it will do its best to ensure the full security of the project in the country.

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TAPI project to resume within 4 months: Taliban

The proposal of the TAPI Project was made in the 1990s but for several reasons, including long-time conflicts, it is yet to be implemented…reports Asian Lite News

The Taliban-led government in Afghanistan announced that work on the TAPI, or the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India, Pipeline project will resume within four months.

In a statement, Esmatullah Burhan, spokesman of the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum (MoMP), said land acquisition was an obstacle that had delayed the implementation of the project so far, reports TOLO News.

“There is no problem about the procedure. Around 15 per cent of the procedure remains, which is a technical process that will be solved soon,” he said.

The Ministry of Economy said the project will help in the development of the Afghan economy.

“The TAPI project is considered one of the important projects to boost the economy. The implementation of this project will cause further political and security cooperation in the region, particularly among these four countries,” said Habib Rahman, a spokesman for the Ministry.

The proposal of the TAPI Project was made in the 1990s but for several reasons, including long-time conflicts, it is yet to be implemented, TOLO News reported.

In 2018 the practical work on TAPI started, but it was again postponed due to unknown reasons.

The TAPI gas pipeline is planned to span 1,680 km and connect Afghanistan’s Herat and Kandahar provinces with Pakistan and India.

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Can Turkmenistan bring TAPI project to life?

In spite of the turbulence in Afghanistan and in spite of international recognition still eluding the Taliban, Turkmenistan may still continue to export electricity, gas, and other consumer supplies to its neighbour. But can it get the TAPI project back on track? – writes Aditi Bhaduri

On March 19 Turkmenistan sworn in its new president. The country’s vice Prime Minister Serdar Berdymekhmedov was elected president in the country’s early elections held on the 12th of this month, winning by 72.97 per cent votes. He is the son of incumbent president Gurbanguly Berdymekhmedov. This is the third president who will assume office since the country emerged an independent sovereign state. This is also the second dynastic transition of power in the region in the post-Soviet space after president Heydar Aliev of Azerbaijan passed on power to his son Ilham Aliyev in 2003.

As the son of the country’s outgoing president, Serdar Berdymekhmedov unsurprisingly has an impressive resume. In 2013-2016 he was Deputy Director of the State Agency for Management and use of Hydrocarbon Resources under the president of Turkmenistan’a powerful position in the county which has the world’s second largest natural gas field. From 2016, he began his political activities, being elected to the Mejlis – the Turkmen parliament. From 2017 he worked for a year as the Chairman of the committee of legislation and norms in the Melissa. In 2018 he became the Deputy Foreign Minister and in January-June 2019, he worked as the Deputy Head of the Akhal Region.

In June 2019 Serdar Berdimuhamedov headed the Administration of Akhal Region. In February 2020 he was appointed to the post of Minister of Industry and Construction Production of Turkmenistan. In February-July 2021 he worked as Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan, Chairman of the Supreme Control Chamber of Turkmenistan and Member of the State Security Council of Turkmenistan. Since July 2021 he has been the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan for economy, banks and international financial organizations.

After the election results were announced, the President-elect said at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers and the State Security Council, “I will use all my strength, abilities, knowledge and experience to prove the high trust placed in me by the people.”

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The new president has his work cut out for him. The economy has to be strengthened and since it is based mostly on energy exports, markets have to be diversified. Energy-rich Turkmenistan, like all of its fellow Central Asian neighbours, is landlocked which impedes its pipeline options. For years, the country has been trying to activate the Transcaspian route through Azerbaijan and Turkey but has been unable to because of Russian concerns. The TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline is another one that has not taken off despite being discussed for two decades, with numerous stakeholders evicting interest in the project. This would have delivered Turkmen gas to energy starved South Asia. Instead, Turkmenistan has been able to sell its gas to China via the China Central Asia pipeline to the tune of 35 billion cubic meter annum (BCMA), but falling gas prices and China’s Covid-19 hit economy has impacted negatively on Turkmen exports. Yet, the country, is one of the few that has a positive balance of trade with China.

Such an export-based economy has meant over the years rise in poverty, unemployment and a brain drain. Earlier this year Turkmenistan saw one of the rare protests against inadequate supplies in government-owned food shops, on which most Turkmens rely for their food. Covid-19 has dealt a further blow to the Turkmen economy despite the fact that the word has been banned in the country, not a single covid case reported, but with reports of patients being hospitalized and dying of covid-like symptoms. The region is in further turbulence with the ascent of the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan, the January uprising in Kazakhstan blamed on radicals, and the current Russian war on Ukraine.

Therefore, it is significant that the new president has outlined his foreign policy objectives as one that would prioritize relations with Russia and China. Pursuing its neutral status, Turkmenistan is neither a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), nor the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). However, it may now try to pursue stronger ties with Russia as a hedge against a possible unrest in the country or to counter any challenge that may arise from outside. Given the way the CSTO quelled the Kazakh riots and then quickly withdrew, it may be more amenable for regional countries now.

Another reason could be that Russia, as a Caspian Sea littoral state, has till now impeded Turkmenistan from pursuing the Transcaspian route to European markets. Given the spate of sanctions Russia has been hit now by the West, activating this route may now work out to the benefit of both.

Yet another issue that holds priority for Serdar Berdymekhmedov is the completion of the TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) electricity pipeline, and the TAPI gas pipeline. To that end, Turkmenistan has been courting the Taliban for a while, even before the latter seized Kabul. It had been delivering electricity to border regions under Taliban sway even during the Ashraf Ghani government. However, turbulence in the region has impeded the supply of Turkmen electricity to Pakistan via Afghanistan, as well as the completion of the TAPI project. In this the Taliban are also greatly invested. Delegations have travelled to Ashkhabad, the Turkmen capital before and after the Taliban took charge in the war-torn country as well as meetings between representatives of both sides have taken place in Doha, Qatar.

It is, therefore, not surprising but interesting nevertheless that the Taliban just named their envoy to Ashkhabad, on Thursday, 17th March. The ceremony where Fazal Mohammed Saber took up his duties as the envoy of the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan to Ashkhabad took place in the presence of Turkmen Deputy Foreign Minister Vepa Hadjiev. In spite of the turbulence in Afghanistan and in spite of international recognition still eluding the Taliban, Turkmenistan may still continue to export electricity, gas, and other consumer supplies to its neighbour. But can it get the TAPI project back on track? That will be the challenge for the new President. And if he is successful then it would indeed be his great achievement that would benefit not only his country but equally Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. That remains to be seen.

(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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Taliban hint at resumption of TAPI project

The TAPI gas pipeline is planned to span 1,680 km and connect Afghanistan’s Herat and Kandahar provinces with Pakistan and India…reports Asian Lite News

The Taliban government said work on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline will resume soon and rejected a media report claiming the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has paused all activities related to the project.

The report by a Pakistani news outlet citing an official from the country’s Energy Ministry said the ADB had “paused all due diligence and processing activities of TAPI pending the official recognition of the Islamic Emirate by the UN and major global economies”.

On Thursday, Ahmad Wali Haqmal, a spokesman for the Taliban’s Ministry of Finance, rejected the report and said the ADB was active in a consultative capacity while is it “mainly owned by Turkmenistan”, TOLO News reported.

The TAPI gas pipeline is planned to span 1,680 km and connect Afghanistan’s Herat and Kandahar provinces with Pakistan and India.

Afghanistan will pay 5 per cent of the project’s expenses.

Earlier the Islamic Emirate had announced that it will resume the TAPI pipeline project this spring.

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Turkmen officials due in Kabul for talks on ‘TAPI’

The TAPI gas pipeline is planned to span 1,680 km and connect Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan with Pakistan and India….reports Asian Lite News

The Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum of Afghanistan has said the delegates of Turkmenistan expect to visit Kabul on March 10 to discuss the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan and India (TAPI) project which has reportedly been put on hold.

Shahabuddin Delawar, Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum, added that Afghanistan is fully prepared to implement the TAPI project, TOLOnews reported.

“There are no problems on the Afghanistan side, we will do our best to resume soon. Previously, there was a security problem but security is completely provided in Afghanistan now and TAPI partners know this,” he said.

A Pakistan news agency quoted a top Pakistani official of the Energy Ministry, saying that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has paused all due diligence and processing activities of TAPI until the official recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by the UN and major global economies.

At a meeting between a Turkmenistan delegation and Pakistani officials on January 31, 2022, the Turkmen side disclosed that ADB had reduced its interest in the project due to the global lack of recognition of the Taliban regime.

Shahabuddin Delawar, Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum,(twitter))

However, Afghan economists believe the project is facing delays due to regional rivalry between India and Pakistan.

“Rivalry between India and Pakistan and rivalry between Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar, as well as the internal political problems in Afghanistan, all caused the TAPI to be paused,” said Sayed Massoud, a university professor.

The TAPI gas pipeline is planned to span 1,680 km and connect Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan with Pakistan and India.

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TAPI pipeline gets new life in Afghanistan

TAPI pipeline is expected to carry 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas each year from Galkynysh, the world’s second-biggest gas field, to the Indian city of Fazilka near the Pakistan border….reports Asian Lite News

Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, at a press conference with Turkmenistan Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, said the Turkmen delegation and the Islamic Emirate held good talks on economic and political issues including restarting the TAPI project, Tolo News reported.

Muttaqi said during the two-day visit, both sides discussed issues around strengthening political relations and economic ties.

He said they talked about the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, adding the implementation of the project in Afghanistan will start soon.

“Important issues such as TAPI, railroads and electricity were discussed. We discussed how to strengthen the projects that had already started.

“Also, the projects that were started by Turkmenistan, such as TAPI — its practical implementation will start soon in Afghanistan.”

Muttaqi said Meredov has invited him to visit Turkmenistan.

Meredov and his accompanying delegation also met Deputy PM Abdul Salam Hanafi and discussed economic issues — especially the TAPI project — and railroads and made important decisions, the Islamic Emirate Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said, the report added.

The TAPI project was launched in 2016. TAPI pipeline is expected to carry 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas each year along a route stretching 1,800 km (1,125 miles) from Galkynysh, the world’s second-biggest gas field, to the Indian city of Fazilka near the Pakistan border.

Work on the project in Afghanistan began in February 2018 and will include a 1,814-kilometre gas pipeline intended to pass through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, with at least 816 kilometre of the pipeline passing through Afghanistan.

However, the construction has faced delays in Afghanistan due to insecurity, among other issues, in the past years, the report said.

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Will Taliban takeover give TAPI gas pipeline project a formal burial?

The ambitious 1,814 km trans-country natural gas pipeline project is important not only for India but also for Turkmenistan…reports Mahua Venkatesh

As political uncertainties grip Afghanistan with the withdrawal of US troops, what will be the future of the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline? Energy experts told India Narrative that India will have to carefully adopt a wait and watch policy as Taliban has already started making rapid inroads in Afghanistan.

The ambitious 1,814 km trans-country natural gas pipeline project is important not only for India but also for Turkmenistan, as this gives a new export market to Ashgabat.

In fact, in February, Turkmenistan invited a Taliban delegation to discuss the future of this pipeline. Though the delegation led by Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar expressed full support and promised to protect the project, worries are rising for India.

“The global energy landscape is changing faster than ever before, with new emerging geopolitical equations in Central Asia and in the Middle East in particular. The growing – and even muscular in some places – influence of China is omnipresent, resulting in a big recast in the energy chessboard all across from the north of Kazakhstan to Saudi Arabia and beyond,” India’s leading energy expert Narendra Taneja said.

Taneja however said that India, over the last few years, has diversified its sources of oil and natural gas.

“India does not need to worry much in terms of oil and gas supply from the two regions as it (the supply) already stands quite diversified, but what should worry us is threat to the size of our presence in the energy chessboard, in the great energy game. The silence everywhere on TAPI is a classic example,” Taneja said.

“China hates TAPI,” he noted.

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Though speculations are rife on whether the project will get a quiet burial, Subhomoy Bhattacharjee, Senior Adjunct Fellow at RIS (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) told India Narrative that it is too early to write it off.

“It is true that the situation is tricky and we will have to wait to understand the dynamics in Afghanistan,” he said.

“Often totalitarian governments depend on natural resources and oil and gas will be an important one. So, it is possible that Taliban, if it comes to power, protects or provides support to the project there could be other international repercussions. India will have to weigh those implications,” Bhattacharjee said.

Even if the TAPI project gets wings, will India be ready to pay royalty to the Taliban government if the situation arises?

Earlier an Observer Research Foundation report said that in light of these developments in Afghanistan’s politics, it would be interesting to see what position India adopts vis-�-vis TAPI gas pipeline and whether New Delhi would be ready to continue its participation in the project.

“The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its weakened appetite for a big foot in Central Asia are disrupting developments and can prove to be unfortunate for energy deficit giants like India,” Taneja added.

According to Upstream Online, an oil and gas weekly, Turkmenistan currently delivers the bulk of its gas production to China via a three-line gas export pipeline across Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with some volumes going to Russian gas monopoly Gazprom via an old route across Kazakhstan.

“The route to China is understood to be running at almost maximum capacity, preventing Turkmenistan from increasing gas production at its highly prolific Galkynysh group of fields, while Gazprom prohibits Turkmenistan from transiting its gas to Europe,” it said.

For Ashgabat, the TAPI project gives a lease of fresh life.

(This content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)

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