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Tories may never recover

The choice of either Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch could prove that those predicting doom may not be wrong, writes Mihir Bose

The choice of Tory MPs to make the Tory leadership race one between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick could make the Tories like the Republicans in the US or right-wing parties of Europe.

Donald Trump may win power but his Republican party is so far removed from the country club Republican party that has dominated American politics that many of the old Republicans are voting for Kamala Harris. On the continent the traditional right-wing parties have been even more marginalised.

However, to write of the Tories always seems a bit premature. In 1997 after Tony Blair’s victory Geoffrey Wheatcroft wrote The Strange Death of Tory England taking his cue from a famous book  written in 1935, The Strange Death of Liberal England by George Dangerfield. That book was prophetic because the Liberals as a party of government did disappear and have only been in power once as a junior coalition partner of David Cameron’s first government. Even that proved such a disaster that they were nearly wiped out in the next elections. The Conservatives, in contrast, not only survived the Blair wave but returned to power with such vengeance that it has taken Labour fourteen years to regain power.

But the choice of either Jenrick or Badenoch could prove that those predicting doom may not be wrong.

Jenrick is clearly going for the anti-immigrant vote but while this has appeal elections are decided by how people see governments perform in delivering on the economy, NHS, welfare, public services.

Badenoch’s decision is to fight the culture wars. Culture war has taken over from political correctness as another word that conceals its true meaning. Some years ago when Calcutta became Kolkata and Bombay, Mumbai people said this was political correctness. I pointed out Bengalis had always pronounced Calcutta as Kolkata and Mumbai was the name the Kohli fisherman called the city. There is after all a great temple in Mumbai called Mumbadevi. I grew up in Mumbai hearing Maharashtrian demonstrators going down Flora Fountain shouting Mumbai Amachi, Mumbai is ours, demanding the creation of the state of Maharashtra. Indeed during one demonstration outside our house I saw the police fire on a crowd and kill a boy, I remember his body naked to the waist bathed in red blood, the first dead body I had seen. Culture wars, like political correctness, are polite words meant to say how dare you interfere with the world our European ancestors created?

Badenoch, of Nigerian origin, was born here but lived in Nigeria as a child and told the Times that her upbringing in Nigeria showed her the danger of identity politics. “Human beings will always find a difference. I grew up in a place where everybody was black, but there were different languages, there were different cultures. And you still had the same sort of vicious hatred for people who looked exactly the same, but they might dress differently or have a different religion”. Countries need a “dominant shared identity”. In the UK you had to be British. “Watering that down and encouraging everybody to find a way to split into different groups is actually quite dangerous. And I’ve seen more and more of that happening here in a way it wasn’t 30 years ago”

What she did not say was that Nigeria was created by British colonial rulers when Africa  was described as the dark continent which had no history before the Europeans arrived with their civilising mission. Not to acknowledge that history means a vital part of British history is being censored constructing a sham Britishness.

This is, of course ,a pan-European thing and is well demonstrated in the whole debate about the environment. It is wonderfully analysed by the historian Sunil Amrith in The Burning Earth (Allen Lane £30) which looks at the environmental history of the last 500 years but reinterprets a history previously been seen from a Euro and anthropocentric viewpoint into a global viewpoint.

The Chinese in the 15th century then the mightiest power did not want to expand and paid the price when the Europeans came knocking on their doors. There is the story of Madeira the Atlantic island which became the largest producer of sugar in the world just as 12.5 million humans were enslaved and transported across the Atlantic between 1492 and 1866. In Madeira vast expansive land was turned over to growing a single crop. “There was nothing unprecedented in the speed with which the forest of Madeira were razed by the new settlers. “To exhaust the land” was the imperative of Chinese provincial governors in Ming and Quing times. But their aim was always to secure food for a growing population. Investors in Portuguese sugar ventures wanted something else- they wanted to extract the maximum profit in the shortest time”.

He also links the British bringing railways to India, something the British are very proud of, with even more famines taking place because the railways constructed to transport British troops did not reach remote areas. In the 1970s India’s National Sample Survey found that still 72% of all journeys in rural India were made on foot. The British absolved themselves of any responsibility for the famines blaming it on Indian society and even today cannot accept any blame for the second world war famine that killed three million Bengalis in the worst 20th century famine in south Asian history.

But I do not suppose Badenoch would read it as it would not help promote her idea of Britishness which she hopes will win her power. Should the Tories buy her very selective view of Britishness this time they could become marginalised.

Mihir Bose is the author of Thank You Mr Crombie Lessons in Guilt and Gratitude to the British.

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Tories may never recover

The choice of either Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch could prove that those predicting doom may not be wrong, writes Mihir Bose

The choice of Tory MPs to make the Tory leadership race one between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick could make the Tories like the Republicans in the US or right-wing parties of Europe.

Donald Trump may win power but his Republican party is so far removed from the country club Republican party that has dominated American politics that many of the old Republicans are voting for Kamala Harris. On the continent the traditional right-wing parties have been even more marginalised.

However, to write of the Tories always seems a bit premature. In 1997 after Tony Blair’s victory Geoffrey Wheatcroft wrote The Strange Death of Tory England taking his cue from a famous book  written in 1935, The Strange Death of Liberal England by George Dangerfield. That book was prophetic because the Liberals as a party of government did disappear and have only been in power once as a junior coalition partner of David Cameron’s first government. Even that proved such a disaster that they were nearly wiped out in the next elections. The Conservatives, in contrast, not only survived the Blair wave but returned to power with such vengeance that it has taken Labour fourteen years to regain power.

But the choice of either Jenrick or Badenoch could prove that those predicting doom may not be wrong.

Jenrick is clearly going for the anti-immigrant vote but while this has appeal elections are decided by how people see governments perform in delivering on the economy, NHS, welfare, public services.

Badenoch’s decision is to fight the culture wars. Culture war has taken over from political correctness as another word that conceals its true meaning. Some years ago when Calcutta became Kolkata and Bombay, Mumbai people said this was political correctness. I pointed out Bengalis had always pronounced Calcutta as Kolkata and Mumbai was the name the Kohli fisherman called the city. There is after all a great temple in Mumbai called Mumbadevi. I grew up in Mumbai hearing Maharashtrian demonstrators going down Flora Fountain shouting Mumbai Amachi, Mumbai is ours, demanding the creation of the state of Maharashtra. Indeed during one demonstration outside our house I saw the police fire on a crowd and kill a boy, I remember his body naked to the waist bathed in red blood, the first dead body I had seen. Culture wars, like political correctness, are polite words meant to say how dare you interfere with the world our European ancestors created?

Badenoch, of Nigerian origin, was born here but lived in Nigeria as a child and told the Times that her upbringing in Nigeria showed her the danger of identity politics. “Human beings will always find a difference. I grew up in a place where everybody was black, but there were different languages, there were different cultures. And you still had the same sort of vicious hatred for people who looked exactly the same, but they might dress differently or have a different religion”. Countries need a “dominant shared identity”. In the UK you had to be British. “Watering that down and encouraging everybody to find a way to split into different groups is actually quite dangerous. And I’ve seen more and more of that happening here in a way it wasn’t 30 years ago”

What she did not say was that Nigeria was created by British colonial rulers when Africa  was described as the dark continent which had no history before the Europeans arrived with their civilising mission. Not to acknowledge that history means a vital part of British history is being censored constructing a sham Britishness.

This is, of course ,a pan-European thing and is well demonstrated in the whole debate about the environment. It is wonderfully analysed by the historian Sunil Amrith in The Burning Earth (Allen Lane £30) which looks at the environmental history of the last 500 years but reinterprets a history previously been seen from a Euro and anthropocentric viewpoint into a global viewpoint.

The Chinese in the 15th century then the mightiest power did not want to expand and paid the price when the Europeans came knocking on their doors. There is the story of Madeira the Atlantic island which became the largest producer of sugar in the world just as 12.5 million humans were enslaved and transported across the Atlantic between 1492 and 1866. In Madeira vast expansive land was turned over to growing a single crop. “There was nothing unprecedented in the speed with which the forest of Madeira were razed by the new settlers. “To exhaust the land” was the imperative of Chinese provincial governors in Ming and Quing times. But their aim was always to secure food for a growing population. Investors in Portuguese sugar ventures wanted something else- they wanted to extract the maximum profit in the shortest time”.

He also links the British bringing railways to India, something the British are very proud of, with even more famines taking place because the railways constructed to transport British troops did not reach remote areas. In the 1970s India’s National Sample Survey found that still 72% of all journeys in rural India were made on foot. The British absolved themselves of any responsibility for the famines blaming it on Indian society and even today cannot accept any blame for the second world war famine that killed three million Bengalis in the worst 20th century famine in south Asian history.

But I do not suppose Badenoch would read it as it would not help promote her idea of Britishness which she hopes will win her power. Should the Tories buy her very selective view of Britishness this time they could become marginalised.

Mihir Bose is the author of Thank You Mr Crombie Lessons in Guilt and Gratitude to the British.

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Polls point to ‘electoral extinction’ for Tories

Labour’s 25-point lead was the largest since the premiership of Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, whose tax cut plans prompted investors to dump British government bonds, pushing up interest rates and forcing a Bank of England intervention…reports Asian Lite News

Three British opinion polls released late on Saturday presented a grim picture for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, and one pollster warned that the party faced “electoral extinction” in July 4’s election.

The polls come just over halfway through the election campaign, after a week in which both the Conservatives and Labour set out their manifestos, and shortly before voters begin to receive postal ballots.

Sunak surprised many in his own party by announcing an early election on May 22, against widespread expectations that he would wait until later in the year to allow more time for living standards to recover after the highest inflation in 40 years.

Market research company Savanta found 46% support for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, up 2 points on the previous poll five days earlier, while support for the Conservatives dropped 4 points to 21%. The poll was conducted from June 12 to June 14 for the Sunday Telegraph.

Labour’s 25-point lead was the largest since the premiership of Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, whose tax cut plans prompted investors to dump British government bonds, pushing up interest rates and forcing a Bank of England intervention.

“Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party,” Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said.

A separate poll by Survation, published by the Sunday Times, predicted the Conservatives could end up with just 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons – the lowest in their nearly 200-year history – while Labour would win 456 seats.

The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13.

In percentage terms, the Survation poll had Labour on 40% and the Conservatives on 24%, while former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party – a right-wing challenger to the Conservatives – was on 12%.

A third poll, by Opinium for Sunday’s Observer and conducted from June 12 to June 14, also showed Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform on 14%, with the two largest parties yielding ground to smaller rivals.

ALSO READ-Reform UK overtakes Tories in opinion polls

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Reform UK overtakes Tories in opinion polls

Mordaunt was laughed at by the audience as she replied: “Because of the record of this prime minister.” She warned: “Nigel is a Labour enabler. He is enabling no cap, no target, and no plan.”…reports Asian Lite News

Nigel Farage has declared Reform UK “the opposition to Labour” after his party overtook the Tories for the first time in a new poll.

In a fresh blow to embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a survey by YouGov for The Times put Reform UK at 19%, compared to the Conservatives at 18%. The results came out moments before an ITV debate between senior figures in the seven main parties.

Farage wasted no time in gloating about the poll, saying in his opening statement: “Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls. We are now the opposition to Labour.”

In a flip of Conservative campaign rhetoric, he also claimed that voting for the Tories over Reform would enable a Labour government.

When given the chance to ask another of the panellists a question, Farage took aim at Conservative frontbencher Penny Mordaunt, pointing to rising net migration despite Tory promises to control it.

“Why on earth should anybody believe the fifth manifesto that promises cuts to net migration?” he asked.

Mordaunt was laughed at by the audience as she replied: “Because of the record of this prime minister.” She warned: “Nigel is a Labour enabler. He is enabling no cap, no target, and no plan.”

But Farage responded that he did not believe Ms Mordaunt, adding: “As for being a Labour enabler, we are now ahead of you in the national polls. A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

The poll was carried out after Mr Sunak unveiled a £17bn package of tax cuts in the Conservative manifesto earlier this week.

It shows Reform up two points, with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all down one.

Predictably, Nigel Farage wasted no time in gloating about the shock opinion poll minutes before the start which put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives.

“We are now the opposition to Labour,” he declared, in a boast that he has been wanting to trumpet at full volume for weeks as support for his party has risen gradually during the campaign.

And Penny Mordaunt served notice that she will go on the attack against Labour on tax in the debate, claiming she’ll talk about the Tories cutting taxes and Labour raising them.

The poll was conducted on a sample size of 2,211 adults in Britain between June 12 and 13.

Will Jennings, Sky News polling analyst, said the YouGov survey “represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives”.

“Because of the geography of their support, Reform are not projected to win many seats, but they could still cost the Conservatives wins in narrowly contested seats across the country,” he said.

“In many places this will make the difference between a constituency returning a Conservative or Labour MP.”

A Reform UK spokesperson said: “One poll does not make an election. However it is clear that the Tories are broken, just as they have broken the country.

“Right now, Labour will win, but Reform are the only real opposition.

“Those who are thinking of voting Conservative out of misplaced loyalty should think again. They can and should vote for a party with the energy and imagination to challenge a Labour hegemony.”

After announcing his shock return to frontline politics last week, Mr Farage made clear his plans to replace the Tories as the official opposition if Labour win the landslide the current polls are predicting.

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Hunt vows tax cut if Tories win polls

The chancellor argued that a Tory promise to cut taxes will be a major dividing line at the election, even though the overall tax load has risen to postwar highs under his party…reports Asian Lite News

Jeremy Hunt defended large-scale Conservative tax rises during this parliament, but insist that only his party will cut the tax burden if it wins the next general election.

The chancellor argued that a Tory promise to cut taxes will be a major dividing line at the election, even though the overall tax load has risen to postwar highs under his party.

“Labour like to criticise tax rises this parliament thinking people don’t know why they have gone up — the furlough scheme, the energy price guarantee and billions of pounds of cost of living support,” Hunt said.

Hunt’s speech in central London comes ahead of the release next week of official inflation data that the chancellor hopes will show inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.

He sees this as a key moment for the economy. The Tories are trailing Labour by 20 percentage points in opinion polls and have worse ratings on the economy than Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

Hunt’s speech marks the opening skirmishes between the two main parties on the economy ahead of an election expected this autumn. On Thursday, Labour said creating “economic stability” would be its first priority if it wins.

The chancellor will claim Labour attacks on his party’s tax-raising record were “playground politics”, noting Starmer’s party had supported policies to help the UK through a series of economic shocks.

Despite recent cuts to national insurance, the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank has said “this remains a parliament of record tax rises”.

Meanwhile, Hunt on Thursday convened technology groups and regulators in an attempt to identify ways of making the country more attractive to the high-growth industry.

He hosted a summit at his grace-and-favour Dorneywood estate in Buckinghamshire to canvas executives’ views on what the government could do to retain tech groups in the UK and help them to grow.

One person at the summit said it was “very positive” and that a number of people stated they were planning to have initial public offerings in London.

However, the Treasury declined to say how many companies attended the event or provide names.

Some major companies — including Revolut, Klarna, Checkout.com and ClearScore — did not attend. The chief executive of one large tech group said he had not known the Dorneywood summit was being held.

Industry figures attending included Monzo boss TS Anil and Eben Upton, chief executive of Raspberry Pi, the computer maker on which hopes for a reopening of the London IPO market are pinned.

The Cambridge-based company said on Wednesday that it would seek a listing on the London Stock Exchange’s main market. It was valued at $597mn in November. 

The Treasury said the summit “focused on the offer that the UK has for innovative firms wanting to raise capital in the UK”.

One person at the meeting said tech bosses had challenged Nikhil Rathi, boss of the Financial Conduct Authority, to provide “clarity and certainty” on future regulation and to take a more “pro-growth” approach.

The UK has a record of developing more start-ups than other European countries but Hunt is attempting to overhaul London’s stock market rules to encourage more companies to grow and list in the country.

Sunak vows to remain an MP even if Tories lose election

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has vowed to stay on as an MP even if his ruling Conservative Party loses the next general election.

The PM said his North Yorkshire constituency is “wonderful” and “of course” he will remain in Parliament whatever the outcome when he goes to the country.

There has been speculation that Sunak, who previously worked at a hedge fund in California, could be eyeing a job in Silicon Valley as the Tories trail by more than 20 points in opinion polls.

But asked on ITV’s Loose Women whether he would stay on as an MP if the party loses, the MP for Richmond (Yorks) said: “Of course I’m staying. I love being an MP. I love my constituents, I love my home in North Yorkshire.”

Elsewhere in the show, which Sunak claimed was “one of the more intimidating things” he had done over the course of his job, Sunak conceded that “we’re not there yet” in terms of the progress he wants to make before calling an election.

He has dismissed demands for a change of political course after the Tories suffered a drubbing in the local elections earlier this month, saying he is “determined more than ever to show the public that what we’re doing is making a difference” on issues including the economy and migration.

“I’ll happily come back and talk to you during the election. But I am focused on that, I am focused on the choice of that election,” he told the panel.

“We’ve been through a lot but I do think actually the things we are doing are starting to make a difference. We’re not there yet, of course”.

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