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IMF warns Hunt against tax cuts

The IMF said it was forecasting UK growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024 – both unchanged from October – and with only Germany of the leading G7 industrialised economies expanding more weakly…reports Asian Lite News

The International Monetary Fund has issued a strong warning to Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes in his budget in March, stressing the need to boost key areas of public spending instead.

In updated forecasts for the UK and the rest of the global economy, the Washington-based fund doubted whether the widely anticipated tax cuts would be possible without extra borrowing or post-election spending cuts.

The IMF said the chancellor should be focusing on repairing the public finances after the damage caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine in order to meet growing spending pressures.

An IMF spokesperson said: “Preserving high-quality public services and undertaking critical public investments to boost growth and achieve the net zero targets, will imply higher spending needs over the medium term than are currently reflected in the government’s budget plans.

“Accommodating these needs, while assuredly stabilising the debt/GDP ratio, will already require generating additional high-quality fiscal savings, including on the tax side.”

Hunt is expected to cut income tax in the budget, but the IMF called on the chancellor to increase carbon and property taxes, take steps to eliminate loopholes in the taxation of wealth and income, and overhaul the pensions triple lock. “It is in this context that [IMF] staff advises against further tax cuts,” the IMF said.

Hunt rejected the IMF’s call. “The IMF expect growth to strengthen over the next few years, supported by our introduction of the biggest capital investment tax reliefs anywhere in the world, alongside national insurance cuts to improve work incentives,” the chancellor said.

“It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth.”

The IMF said it was forecasting UK growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024 – both unchanged from October – and with only Germany of the leading G7 industrialised economies expanding more weakly.

With lower inflation likely to boost consumer spending power, the IMF said it was pencilling in UK growth of 1.6% in 2025 – slower than forecast three months ago. “The markdown to growth in 2025 of 0.4 percentage points reflects reduced scope for growth to catch up in light of recent upward statistical revisions to the level of output through the pandemic period,” the IMF said.

Last year, the Office for National Statistics revised up its estimates of UK growth in 2020 and 2021 by 1.8 points in total across the two years.

The IMF said the global economy was gliding towards a “soft landing” after coping with the impact of tough central bank interest-rate action to reduce inflation.

Revising up its growth estimates for 2024, the IMF said a number of big economies – including the US, China, Russia and India – had posted stronger than expected performances in 2023 and it was surprised by the resilience shown.

ALSO READ-IMF upgrades 2024 global growth forecast to 3.1%

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Hunt Signals Further Tax Cuts

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt aims to attract more investment to Britain during his Davos visit, emphasising the significance of lower taxes for economic growth…reports Asian Lite News

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has hinted at an inclination to reduce taxes in the upcoming spring budget. Speaking to the BBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Hunt emphasised the positive correlation between lower taxes and dynamic, faster-growing economies. In the previous autumn statement, he had already reduced national insurance for workers by 2% and announced tax relief for businesses.

The chancellor expressed the possibility of further tax cuts if inflation decreases this year, coupled with lower interest rates, providing fiscal headroom. Hunt aims to attract more investment to Britain during his Davos visit, emphasising the significance of lower taxes for economic growth.

Observing the direction of economic growth in North America and Asia, Hunt believes that low-tax economies are more competitive and generate increased revenue for public services like the NHS. While not providing specific details on the scale of potential tax cuts, he awaits an assessment from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The focus of the budget on March 6 is expected to be on income tax, as the overall tax burden is set to rise to its highest level in decades. Frozen tax thresholds since 2021, remaining unchanged until 2028, contribute to households being pushed into higher income tax brackets. Typically, tax thresholds rise with inflation, but the current freeze has sparked anticipation for adjustments in the upcoming budget.

Inflation Rose in December

The UK’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4 per cent in the 12 months to December 2023, up from 3.9 per cent in November, according to official data. This was the first inflation increase since February 2023, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Meanwhile, Chancellor Hunt said he was “confident” that inflation will continue to fall and that prices were “heading in the right direction”. He told reporters on Thursday: “I think it’s coming down. I think it will continue to fall.”

The ONS said that CPI rose by 0.4 per cent monthly in December, reports Xinhua news agency. “The rate of inflation ticked up a little in December, with rises in tobacco prices due to recently introduced duty increases,” said Grant Fitzner, chief economist of the ONS. Prices in the alcohol and tobacco division rose by 12.8 pe cent in the year to December.

As announced in Autumn Statement 2023 in November, duty rates on tobacco products increased by retail price index (RPI) inflation plus 2 per cent, with duties on hand-rolling tobacco products increasing by RPI inflation plus 12 per cent.

The tobacco price rises “were offset partially by falling food inflation, where prices still rose but at a much lower rate than this time last year”, said Fitzner. “Meanwhile, the prices of goods leaving factories are little changed over the last few months, while the costs of raw materials remain lower than a year ago,” he added.

According to the ONS, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 8 per cent in December year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since April 2022. The latest data, significantly down from a peak of 11.1 per cent in October 2022, is still double the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

Economists are expecting the Bank of England to cut interest rate, which currently stands at a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent, at around the middle of this year.

However, the UK teeters on the edge of recession, evident in recent official growth figures revealing a contraction in the economy from July to September. A recession, commonly defined by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, looms on the horizon.

Despite the economic challenges, Chancellor Hunt remains cautiously optimistic. While asserting that it’s premature to determine the scope of potential tax cuts, he pointed to the swift decline in inflation as a positive indicator for Britain’s improving economic outlook.

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Tax cuts unlikely before election, says Hunt

Hunt’s comments will concern Tory MPs, who have been pushing for tax cuts in the autumn statement in the run-up to next year’s general election…reports Asian Lite News

Jeremy Hunt has said he must “double down” on high prices after admitting a package of pre-election tax cuts this autumn was looking unlikely.

The government would not make moves to “pump billions of additional demand” into the economy, the chancellor added.

The prime minister had previously pledged to halve inflation to about 5% by the end of the year but it has remained at 8.7%.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Hunt said achieving Rishi Sunak’s promise was “going to be more challenging than we thought”.

“We will not countenance tax cuts if they make the battle against inflation harder,” he said. “If we were to pump billions of pounds of additional demand into the economy when inflation is already too high, that would mean fiscal policy working against monetary policy.”

Hunt’s comments will concern Tory MPs, who have been pushing for tax cuts in the autumn statement in the run-up to next year’s general election.

The chancellor was speaking before his annual speech to the City of London on Monday, during which he will announce measures he hopes will grow the economy by making UK stock markets more appealing to firms seeking to float their businesses.

During the speech, he will also set out proposals to simplify rules for buying and selling shares and deliver higher returns for investors, as well as announcing a vision for a new kind of stock exchange allowing private companies to access markets without floating.

Hunt said: “These commonsense changes are grasping our newfound Brexit freedoms to simplify the rulebook – making it easier than ever for firms to research, raise funds, and float their business.”

The chancellor also said the government could resist “inflationary” public sector pay demands, while applying new pressure to companies, saying they ought to hold down prices and had “moral responsibilities to their own customers in a cost of living crisis”.

He said: “There are times when margin rebuild is legitimate and there are times when you need to think about the impact on your own customers.”

Cabinet ministers have been pushing Sunak to accept a 6% public sector pay rise recommended by the independent pay review bodies, the Times reported.

It is understood that the education secretary, Gillian Keegan, health secretary, Steve Barclay, defence secretary, Ben Wallace, justice secretary, Alex Chalk, and home secretary, Suella Braverman, are among the high-profile ministers lobbying Sunak.

Earlier this year the chancellor came under pressure from Conservative backbench MPs to unveil a raft of tax-cutting measures.

“We can’t wait until the next general election, people are depressed, we’ve got to give them hope,” said the backbencher Edward Leigh. “Corporation, personal, fuel tax – you’ve got to give them something.”

Another MP was reported to have told Hunt the Conservative party would face a “fin de siècle” – the end of an era – in government if people did not feel they had more disposable income.

The Tories continue to trail Labour in the polls, with recent modelling based on a mega-poll of new constituency boundaries suggesting Keir Starmer’s party are on course to secure a 140-seat majority in the next election.

With the Conservatives still suffering from a large polling deficit, Labour’s support was found to be at about 35% – 12% ahead of Sunak’s party.

ALSO READ-Sunak wants 2% tax cut before polls

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Europe

Germany concerned with Britain’s tax cuts

Speaking at an event hosted by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper on Monday, Lindner suggested that it wouldn’t end well…reports Asian Lite News

The German government is concerned that Britain is conducting a “major experiment” by cutting taxes and boosting borrowing just as the central bank is raising interest rates, a media reports said.

Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner raised doubts about British government’s plans to accelerate spending while the central bank tightens policy to rein inflation, The Guardian reported.

In another sign of rising international concern, Lindner warned: “In the UK, a major experiment is starting as the state simultaneously puts its foot on the gas while the central bank steps on the brakes.”

Speaking at an event hosted by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper on Monday, Lindner suggested that it wouldn’t end well.

“I would say we wait for the results of this attempt and then draw the lessons,” he said, The Guardian reported.

Larry Summers, a former US Treasury secretary, has warned that the UK government’s ‘utterly irresponsible’ plans could drag the pound below parity against the euro, as well as the dollar.

Summers has heavily criticised Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for undermining credibility by saying ‘incredible things’ about planning more tax cuts — those weekend comments pushed the pound to a record low of $1.0327 on Monday.

Summers said he was “very pessimistic about the consequences of utterly irresponsible UK policy on Friday”, but didn’t expect the markets to get so bad so quickly.

Summers also suggested the Bank of England should have taken more decisive action, rather than its timid statement on Monday.

Summers said, “The first step in regaining credibility is not saying incredible things. I was surprised when the new chancellor spoke over the weekend of the need for even more tax cuts. I cannot see how the BOE, knowing the government’s plans, decided to move so timidly.”

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Truss ready to speed up tax cut plan

Advisors to Truss believed the cut could be introduced within days of an emergency budget that her government would deliver in September, if she wins the ruling Conservative Party’s leadership race that is due to end on Sept. 5, it said…reports Asian Lite News

Liz Truss, the front-runner to become Britain’s next prime minister, plans to rush through tax cuts earlier than planned in an attempt to boost the country’s flagging economy, the Sunday Telegraph reported.

Truss was considering accelerating by six months her plan to reverse this year’s increase in social security contributions which had been pencilled in for April 2023, the newspaper said.

Advisors to Truss believed the cut could be introduced within days of an emergency budget that her government would deliver in September, if she wins the ruling Conservative Party’s leadership race that is due to end on Sept. 5, it said.

Truss’s rival, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, says cutting taxes now would add more fuel to Britain’s soaring inflation rate which is set to surpass 13% in October, according to the Bank of England’s latest forecasts.

The BoE has also said Britain is due to enter a 15-month recession starting later this year, something Truss says adds urgency to her plan to cut taxes.

Truss, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, said she wanted to “immediately tackle the cost of living crisis by cutting taxes, reversing the rise on National Insurance and suspending the green levy on energy bills.”

Sunak proposes a different approach by giving support directly to lower-income households that are most exposed to the surge in power bills which will rise sharply again in October.

On Saturday, he reiterated that he wanted to “go further” than the support he provided as finance minister before he resigned in protest at the leadership of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in July.

“It’s simply wrong to rule out further direct support at this time as Liz Truss has done and what’s more her tax proposals are not going to help very significantly, people like pensioners or those on low incomes,” he said.

A recent poll by YouGov showed Truss held a 24-point lead over Sunak among Conservative Party members who will choose the party’s next leader and Britain’s next prime minister.

In her Sunday Telegraph article, Truss kept up her criticisms of the BoE, saying it had exacerbated the jump in inflation and she would “work night and day” to fix the problem.

“That is why I want to look around the world at what the best performing central banks are doing to control inflation and how we can ensure our Bank is delivering what we need it to deliver,” she said.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has denied the BoE is to blame for the inflation surge, saying it began to raise interest rates earlier than other central banks and most of the recent acceleration of prices stems from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sunak under fire

Rishi Sunak, trailing in the two-horse race to replace British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, faced criticism on Friday for saying he had previously instigated policy changes to divert funding away from deprived urban areas.

The ruling Conservative Party is choosing a new leader after Johnson was forced to quit when dozens of ministers resigned in protest at a series of scandals and missteps. Party members are voting by post to select either Sunak or foreign minister Liz Truss.

Polling shows Sunak, who was finance minister between February 2020 and July 2022, is trailing Truss as the two candidates tour the country in a bid to secure votes.

His comments came in a video published on Friday by the New Statesman magazine, which it said was filmed on July 29 at a meeting of Conservative Party members in Tunbridge Wells, a relatively affluent area in south east England.

Sunak is seen telling an audience: “I managed to start changing the funding formulas to make sure that areas like this are getting the funding that they deserve, because we inherited a bunch of formulas from the Labour Party that shoved all the funding into deprived urban areas … that needed to be undone. I started the work of undoing that.”

The New Statesman did not specify who filmed the short video and Reuters could not independently verify the date or the location when the video was made. The context of his comments was not shown.

Asked about the comments, a source in Sunak’s campaign referred to reforms to ensure rural areas received funding alongside urban centres, pointing to his efforts, announced in March 2020, to redraw rules the finance ministry used to allocate investment.

Levelling up isn’t just about city centres, it’s also about towns and rural areas all over the country that need help too,” the source said, of Johnson’s policy to reduce regional inequalities.

“Travelling around the country, he’s seen non-metropolitan areas that need better bus services, faster broadband, or high quality schools. That’s what he’ll deliver as Prime Minister.”

Truss did not immediately comment on the video.

However, the opposition Labour Party seized on the video as evidence that the Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010, are not committed to spreading wealth across the country.

“Public money should always be distributed fairly and spent in areas where it is most needed,” Labour’s spokeswoman on Levelling up, Lisa Nandy, said in a letter to the government, describing the comments as “deeply concerning” and calling for an investigation.

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