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Asia disinflation on its way

According to the report, Asia, along with the rest of the world, was confronted with multiple stagflationary shocks in 2022…reports Asian Lite News

The year 2023 will be the year of disinflation (inflation at slow rate) in Asia, said Morgan Stanley in a research report.

“We expect 2023 to be a year of disinflation. Asia’s inflation, which had more of a cost push element, has already peaked in 3Q22. For 90 per cent of the central banks in Asia, inflation will return to target/comfort zone by 3Q23. In contrast, inflation will remain somewhat above target in the US and Euro Area,” it said.

According to the report, Asia, along with the rest of the world, was confronted with multiple stagflationary shocks in 2022. However, Asia weathered these shocks better: the step up in inflation was less as compared to other regions, while the step down in growth was more moderate.

Morgan Stanley expects four out of 11 central banks to stop tightening policy by 4Q22, with the rest stopping in 1Q23. There will be a pause in the rate hiking cycle, coupled with an easing in US rates and peaking of the US dollar, leading to easier financial conditions in 2023.

While weak external demand will remain a drag at least through the first half of 2023, Asia’s domestic demand is supported by reopening and the easing of financial conditions, the report notes.

China will emerge as an additional pillar of domestic demand support after its reopening from the spring of 2023.

“We expect Asia’s growth to improve from a trough of 3.4 pe rcent in 1Q23 to 4.6 per cent in 2H23,” the report said.

According to Morgan Stanley, the inflation in the US and China’s reopening are key factors. If US inflation stays elevated for longer, it would lead to more tightening by the Federal Reserve than is expected and could drive renewed strength in the US dollar.

This, in turn, would prolong the rate hike cycle in Asia, keep financial conditions tight, and exert downward pressures on growth.

A delayed reopening in China risks could have non-linear impact on China’s growth trajectory, with adverse spillover implications for the rest of the region, the report added.

ALSO READ: Fired employees find it hard to get jobs amid recession fears

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U.S. midterm polls give Biden a chance to course correct in Eurasia

The G20 Summit may show whether President Biden has finally read the memo that this is the era of Cold War 2.0, and that the lead adversary is no longer Moscow but Beijing, writes Prof. Madhav Das Nalapat

The results of the 2022 midterm elections in the United States came as a surprise to at least three of the four heads of the great powers of the 21st century. The response of Prime Minister Modi is not known, but Presidents Biden, Putin and Xi had expected a Democratic meltdown, given the toxic consequences of the war in Ukraine that NSA Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken ensured that Biden hyperactively led. Xi and Putin must have been disappointed by the close result, for to both Moscow and Beijing, a much weakened Executive and an even more sharply feuding Legislature in the US would have been welcome.

 Instead, despite the unpopularity of President Biden, the Democrats have surprised themselves by putting up a good showing, making the US President ecstatic and putting within reach the enactment of the $2 trillion Biden Social Justice Plan. The Republican leadership expected to gain a record number of seats in the US Congress as a result of the inflation and supply dislocations caused by the very war in Ukraine that they were vocally backing, including by voting with the Democrats on the huge amounts of money regularly expended on the war by the White House. Unfortunately for the GoP, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had ensured through then President Trump the transformation of large swathes of the US judiciary into crusaders for what may be termed Theological Republicanism.

Clearly, McConnell had not factored in the distaste felt by several independent voters, especially young women, at a Supreme Court that appears to be basing many of its judgments less on settled laws and democratic logic than on theological and ideological justifications. In particular, the US Supreme Court’s open sesame to the proliferation of mass killing automatic weapons in the hands of citizens, added to its shock overturning of Roe v Wade took away not just public safety but freedoms that for half a century had been taken for granted by US citizens. The evident ideological and theological bias of the six Republican-leaning Justices in the US Supreme Court helped the Democratic Party to avoid a predicted Republican sweep during the November 2022 midterms.

Apart from the Supreme Court, the other factor that boosted vote tallies of Democratic Party candidates was Donald J. Trump. Several independent voters swallowed their distaste for Biden’s unwillingness to minister to voter priorities in his obsession with Russia and Ukraine, and voted Democratic out of fear that a Republican midterm sweep in 2022 would make another Trump bid for the US Presidency in 2024 inevitable. Even if Trump were to lose that contest, which he would unless Joe Biden were his opponent, his consistent refusal to accept any result other than a victory for himself would continue to poison politics and society in the US even from 2024 onwards, to the delight of Xi and Putin. The strands of Trumpian logic, including denying that losing in a fair election was normal in a democracy, brought down Republican candidates such as Mehmet Oz and Karri Lake, who would have won but for their extravagantly advertised embrace of Trump and his views.

In contrast, a future superstar, who has yet to be acknowledged as such in US media, J.D. Vance, in effect, only had a handshake with Trump rather than a full embrace, which was why he was elected as a US Senator from Ohio. Tellingly, Vance thanked more than 30 individuals by name in his victory speech, but left out Trump. He was clearly aware that from the 2022 midterms onwards, Trump’s stock was going to be in decline even amongst the Republican faithful, and so the incoming first term Senator did not want his popularity to get dragged down by adherence to Trump in the manner that several other legislators in his party are experiencing. The combination of public dread of a rerun of Trump’s tantrums, together with a Supreme Court that in some of its judgments do not go by the legal logic that is the foundation of democracy, but the belief systems of particular religious theologies mixed with political ideologies, hurt the Republican candidates. The 6:3 majority in the Roberts Court has exhibited a method of deciding cases that had not been anticipated by those who wrote the US Constitution in 1787.

Biden meets Xi for the first time after taking charge

U.S. RELIABILITY UNDER A CLOUD

As had been predicted much earlier in these columns, the November 2022 US midterms have shown that Donald Trump would be the ideal Republican candidate for a Democratic opponent to defeat, provided that such a candidate not be Joe Biden. Although known to be well-intentioned and straightforward, Biden’s hyperactivity in leading NATO’s proxy war on the Russian Federation in the battlegrounds of Ukraine has crippled the 46th President of the US in the way that the Vietnam War made the continuation in office of Lyndon Baines Johnson beyond the close of his Presidential term in 1969 impossible.

So blinded have key Europeanist advisers of the White House been in their fixation on kneecapping “Putin’s Russia” that they neglected to take account of the collateral damage that the US and its allies would suffer, especially in economic terms, because of the Biden-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia that accelerated in wave after wave since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces on 24 February 2022. The harm to citizens in the US, EU and the UK (not to mention the rest of the world) that has been caused by worldwide shortages and price rise (including within key NATO member states) in the aftermath of each round of western sanctions on Russia has yet to deter the frenzied effort by that alliance to “teach Putin a lesson”, but it has made a growing number of US-UK-EU voters turn away from those NATO leaders who are responsible for such policies, including Biden and Scholz.

In the 1960s, President Johnson was persuaded to expand US involvement in the Vietnam War by Kennedy-era holdovers such as NSA McGeorge Bundy and Defence Secretary Robert Strange McNamara. After Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020, the still thriving Cold War 1.0 (USSR-US) enthusiasts, who had come of age in matters of policy under President Clinton, individuals such as Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken, convinced President Biden that the very future of western civilisation was at stake in the Ukraine conflict. In the 1960s, Bundy and McNamara had similarly convinced President Johnson that the future of non-communist Asia was at stake in the paddy fields of Vietnam.

Despite scuttling the political fortunes of their boss President Johnson, both Bundy and McNamara went on to lucrative careers in prosperous institutions, as no doubt Blinken and Sullivan will after Joe Biden becomes wholly unelectable by the initial months of 2023 as a consequence of the fallout of the intensity of the tactics the US President has signed on to in the Ukraine conflict. The US taxpayer largesse showered on that country stands in contrast to the absence of any armaments given away gratis by the US to India, the Philippines, Vietnam or Taiwan, despite Xi Jinping’s repeated efforts at encroaching on their sovereignty in land, sea and air. Given the contrast between the assistance given free of cost to the Ukrainian military and the pell-mell withdrawal during June-August 2021 of all US support to the Afghan National Army that had been till then been battling the Taliban at great cost in lives, the reliability of the US as a partner in defence and security matters has come to be doubted within the GCC, South Asia, East Asia and ASEAN.

China and us flag. (Photo:Xinhua/IANS)

BIDEN’S FAVOURITE COUNTRY

In the gifting of abundant supplies, President Biden’s open heartedness to Ukraine stands in contrast to his relative inattention to countries where human suffering is much worse, such as Somalia or Ethiopia. This has been noted in countries that are not part of what is referred to as the “civilised world” aka “international community” in media outlets of member-states of NATO. For the Cold War 1.0 policymakers within NATO the need is for continuing the war until their hopes are realised of Russia under Putin entering a meltdown.

Unfortunately for them, the Ukraine war has resulted in domestic constituencies tiring of the pain to themselves of the rising volume of aftershocks of the war and sanctions, even though President Biden appears focused on expanding US involvement even in 2023, exactly as President Johnson was fixated on increased US involvement in Vietnam in the 1960s. Seeing that candidates embracing Trumpian logic such as Karri Lake could overcome moderate Republican alternatives to get nominated as candidates in the midterms, although many subsequently lost to the Democrats, ex-President Trump’s hopes for the Republican nomination in the 2024 US Presidential elections remain alive.

While there remains a chance that Trump may still get his party’s nomination in 2024 and go on to lose to a rival so long as he or she is not Joe Biden, discontent within the Democratic Party base at the Biden White House is likely to ensure that President Biden gets defeated in the 2024 Democratic primaries, should he make the mistake of seeking a second term in the White House. Should Vice-President Kamala Harris detach herself from the White House in a way that Hubert Humphrey was unable to do in 1968, she may yet emerge as the Democratic nominee, but that seems unlikely. In the case of the Republicans, should Trump understand that he would lose in 2024 just as he lost in 2020, he could back son Donald for a Senate seat in 2024 rather than seek a rerun himself.

A balanced 2024 Republican ticket that showcases moderation and ethnic diversity may result in a Red Wave in 2024 that has been absent in 2022. In its effort at flipping seats, the Republican Party backing Independent Tulsi Gabbard for the US Senate from Hawaii may be the best way of flipping a Democratic seat in that scenic state. The economic storm intensifying as a consequence of Biden’s expensive and risky prosecution of the Ukraine war, plus the effect on much of Europe of facing winter cold without Russian energy will show that Gabbard was right in warning about the costs to ordinary US citizens of the Ukraine war.

Unfortunately for the regional powers focused on ensuring that the Indo-Pacific remain free and open to all, Biden is led by Cold War 1.0 enthusiasts in an administration that seems ignorant of the fact that the US and the rest of the world have decades ago slipped into the era of Cold War 2.0 (between the PRC and the US principally). In Cold War 2.0, Russia is only a secondary threat, in the way then US ally China was to its foe the USSR during most of Cold War 1.0 between the USSR and the US.

TO CHINA, WITH LOVE

Facts speak louder than statements, and if reports emanating from Washington are to be believed, despite the number of applicants from the PRC for a US visa being higher than the number of Indian citizens applying, it takes less than nine days for a citizen of the PRC to get a US visa and 900 days for a citizen of India. What the charm of Xi Jinping is that enables him to so influence the White House in a favourable direction remains unclear, but what is obvious is the growing doubt in the world’s most consequential continent about the sincerity of the protestations of President Biden that he has as much concern for Asia as he so evidently has for Europe minus Russia.

Friends of India such as Representative Raja Krishnamurthy and Senator Marco Rubio are still present in the US Congress, but the White House will need to do much more to not just improve its standing among US citizens but in that other huge democracy. And despite several accommodative signals of the Biden administration to Beijing, this is not the People’s Republic of China but the Republic of India.

ASIA WATCHING BIDEN

The G20 Summit may show whether President Biden has finally got the memo that this is the era of Cold War 2.0, and that the lead adversary is no longer Moscow but Beijing. 2023 will show whether Biden can get passed his societally transformative agenda, thereby replicating the feat of Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s.

The year will show whether Biden shows in action rather than merely in honeyed expressions that the White House understands that India, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are much in the front line of US security interests as France, Germany and the UK were in the Cold War 1.0 era. Despite Biden, aided by the shadow of the US Supreme Court and Trump, the Democrats have managed to avoid a midterm collapse. As a consequence, the US President has the opportunity to course correct policies and actions concerning Eurasia. Whether Biden has the will to do so will become clear before the winter retreats in early 2023.

ALSO READ: Taiwan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong dominate Biden-Xi meet

ALSO READ: Biden, Xi meet in Bali amid Taiwan tensions

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B’desh issues directives to navigate through challenges

The cabinet directives include relaxation of taxes on food imports, augmenting food production domestically and sending more skilled manpower abroad…reports Asian Lite News

Amid an ongoing economic crisis, the Bangladesh cabinet has issued half a dozen directives for the country to navigate through the domestic and external challenges posing serious threats to the macroeconomic stability next year.

After a cabinet meeting on Monday with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Cabinet Secretary Khandker Anwarul Islam told journalists that the directives include on relaxation of taxes on food imports, augmenting food production domestically and sending more skilled manpower abroad, reports Xinhua news agency.

The meeting instructed relevant authorities to ensure more inflow of foreign direct investment as well as remittances.

Maintaining adequate food storage ahead of 2023 was the other very important directive from the cabinet meeting, said Anwarul Islam.

After reviewing the international situation, according to the official, the cabinet said that 2023 is very likely to be a critical year because of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine war and the slump in food production in parts of the world.

The directives came amid the ongoing economic crisis when Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves fell below $35 billion, weighed by higher import bills and the Bangladeshi taka’s weakness driven by the USD’s surge in recent months.

On Monday, Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Abul Kalam Azad said that the demand and supply of foreign currencies will see a balanced condition by February next year hopefully.

A day earlier, the bank brushed aside “conspiratorial” social media posts inducing people to draw their deposits from banks, saying there is no liquidity crisis in banks and deposits are completely safe.

Amid efforts to bolster its foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $34.3 billion last week, Bangladesh is seeking $2 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Bangladesh that paves the way for the release of the much-awaited $4.5 billion in loan support.

The World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, who concluded his visit to Bangladesh on Sunday, reaffirmed the bank’s continued support to help the country navigate through the current economic challenges and achieve resilient and inclusive growth.

“We’re ready to lend our full support to these efforts at this challenging time,” he said.

Padma Bridge (Photo Twitter@RussEmbDhaka)

 Beautification of Dhaka

Meanwhile, the World Bank will grant a loan to Bangladesh for a project to beautify Dhaka, one of the most congested cities in the world.

Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal told journalists on Sunday that the project named ‘Beautification of Dhaka’ will be implemented in several phases.

Currently, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Martin Raiser is on a three-day visit to Dhaka during which he is scheduled to hold meetings with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and other government high-ups.

He is also supposed to inspect some projects being implemented with World Bank funding.

Kamal’s announcement came following his meeting with Raiser which was also attended by Finance secretary Fatima Yasmin, Economic Relations Division (ERD) secretary Sharifa Khan, incoming World Bank country director of Bangladesh and Bhutan Abdoulaye Seck, regional director Guangzhe Chen and outgoing country director Mercy Tembon.

The Finance Minister said that the “rivers around Dhaka would be freed from illegal grabbers and the city would be made livable” with the help of the World Bank grant. (with inputs from Sumi Khan)

Central bank dismisses liquidity crisis rumour

The central bank of Bangladesh has dismissed “conspiratorial” social media posts inducing people to draw their deposits from banks.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) said there is no liquidity crisis in banks and deposits are completely safe, reports Xinhua news agency.

BB spokeswoman Sayeda Khanam said in a statement on Sunday that “conspiratorial information was being disseminated on various social media provoking people to withdraw their deposits from banks”.

She said the banking system of Bangladesh is in a strong position.

“There is no liquidity crisis in the banking system,” she noted in the statement.

“No bank in the country was shut in 51 years since Bangladesh’s independence. Hopefully, no bank in Bangladesh will be closed down in the coming days. People’s deposits in banks are completely safe,” said the BB spokeswoman.

Amid efforts to bolster its foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $34.3 billion, Bangladesh is seeking $2 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

On November 9, the International Monetary Fund confirmed that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Bangladesh that paves the way for the release of the much-awaited $4.5 billion in loan support.

ALSO READ: Kolkata Port upbeat after trials through Bangladesh ports

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-Top News Afghanistan Asia News

‘Extremely volatile’: Britons advised against travel to Afghanistan

This comes as many countries in the international community are concerned about the resurgence of terrorism and the threats of terrorist groups emanating from Afghanistan…reports Asian Lite News

United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) issued an advisory for British nationals against travelling to Afghanistan as the situation in the country is “extremely volatile”, Khaama Press reported.

The FCDO said that there are no British consular officials present in Afghanistan, and their capacity to offer consular assistance is severely constrained and cannot be provided in person within Afghanistan.

If British nationals still choose to travel or remain in Afghanistan despite the “heightened,” they should maintain a low profile and exercise caution, according to the FCDO.

British citizens may access consular services at the British embassies in neighboring nations, the FCDO stated.

This comes as many countries in the international community are concerned about the resurgence of terrorism and the threats of terrorist groups emanating from Afghanistan, reported Khaama Press.

Photo taken on Nov. 30, 2021 shows the site of a blast in Kabul, capital of Afghanistan. (Photo by Aria/Xinhua/IANS)

Terrorist attacks continue to be a serious threat throughout Afghanistan, including in the area of the airport. Tensions have risen as a result of incidents like the death of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in July 2022.

Recently, in Kabul, the Afghanis witnessed several attacks on educational institutions. In September, there was an attack at the Kaaj Educational Center in Afghanistan’s capital Kabul.

This series of blasts come as the Taliban completed one year of its rule in Afghanistan following the ouster of the US-backed civilian government last year.

Rights groups said the Taliban had broken multiple pledges to respect human and women’s rights. In a recent Human Rights Watch (HRW) report, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) repeatedly attacked Hazaras and other religious minorities at their mosques, schools, and workplaces. While the Taliban have done little to protect these minority communities from suicide bombings and other unlawful attacks from the Islamic State’s (ISIS) affiliate in Afghanistan.

Since the Taliban seized power in August last year, the IS has claimed responsibility for 13 attacks against Hazaras and has been linked to at least 3 more, killing and injuring at least 700 people.

According to HRW, the Hazara are a predominantly Shia Muslim ethnic group that has faced discrimination and abuse by successive Afghan governments for over a century. During the 1990s, Taliban forces targeted the Shia for mass killings and other serious abuses. With the Taliban back in power, the Hazara have been increasingly concerned for their safety and whether the new authorities will protect them. (ANI)

ALSO READ: Sharia law punishments return to Afghanistan

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-Top News UK News

Sunak to raise Britain’s minimum wage

Jeremy Hunt and PM set to accept an official recommendation to increase the living wage from £9.50 an hour to about £10.40 an hour…reports Asian Lite News

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will increase the national living wage and give 8 million households cost-of-living payments worth up to £1,100, The Times reported.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Sunak will accept an official recommendation to increase the living wage from £9.50 an hour to about £10.40 an hour, nearly a 10% rise, the newspaper reported.

Govt considering increase in energy windfall tax

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is considering a big increase in a windfall tax on oil and gas firms and extending it to power generation firms as he tries to find ways to repair the country’s public finances.

The idea is “under consideration” ahead of Hunt’s announcement of a new budget plan on Thursday, a government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Under the plan, first reported by The Times, the levy would be increased to 35% from its current rate of 25%. It would also apply to electricity generators and run until 2028 instead of 2025 as currently scheduled.

The newspaper said the tax would raise a total of 45 billion pounds ($53.3 billion) over the next five years.

A senior source at a North Sea producer, who was familiar with the government’s plans, said it was vital that a tax investment incentive was also extended and that the government avoid more tax changes so “investors can have confidence and continue putting cash into major North Sea developments.”

The chairman of Ithaca Energy, a newly listed North Sea oil and gas producer, said on Wednesday that removing incentives to invest in oil and gas would make the British offshore industry uneconomical.

Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have warned of tough decisions on tax increases and spending cuts as they try to restore Britain’s economy policy credibility following a bond market sell-off sparked in September by the now largely abandoned tax cut plans of former prime minister Liz Truss.

‘Putting public finances on sustainable trajectory’

The UK economy has “clearly” stabilised, Rishi Sunak has said, as he vowed to deliver on market expectations of shoring up the public finances.

The prime minister said this week’s autumn statement would “put our public finances on a sustainable trajectory”.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to unveil spending cuts and tax rises to fill a gap in the UK’s finances.

Sunak said he was fixing errors made by his predecessor Liz Truss, whose mini-budget left markets reeling.

The mini-budget in September included about £45bn of unfunded tax cuts and was followed by days of market turbulence, a fall in the value of the pound and rises in the cost of UK government borrowing.

Truss, who later accepted her mini-budget “went further and faster than markets were expecting”, resigned last month after Conservative MPs rebelled against her leadership.

She was replaced by Sunak who, in his first speech as prime minister, said Truss had made “mistakes” and he had been elected by his party “to fix them”.

Speaking to reporters on a plane to the G20 summit in Indonesia – his second foreign trip as PM – Sunak said “financial conditions in the UK have stabilised, clearly”.

He said to maintain that stability, “delivering on the expectations of international markets” and making sure “our fiscal position is on a more sustainable trajectory” were crucial.

“And that’s what we will do,” in the autumn statement, he said.

Speaking in Indonesia, Sunak said the “decisions we make will have fairness and compassion at their heart”, and reiterated that “stability has returned” to the UK.

On Sunday, his chancellor Hunt told the BBC everyone would need to pay “a bit more tax” to put the economy on a firmer footing.

Soaring living costs and a warning from the Bank of England that the UK is facing its longest recession since records began are the backdrop for the chancellor’s forthcoming announcement.

While acknowledging his plan would “disappoint people”, Mr Hunt promised to protect the “most vulnerable” and “make the recession we are in as short and shallow as possible”.

On Sunday, former cabinet minister Simon Clarke said tax rises risked choking off economic growth and suggested balancing the books through spending cuts instead.

Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng echoed that argument last week, saying said growth would not stem from “putting up our taxes”.

They said they were sceptical about the size of the “black hole” in the public finances and said a number of Tory MPs had concerns.

Treasury sources have previously estimated there was a gap of around £55bn in the public finances, but some economists have questioned this.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will increase the national living wage and give 8 million households cost-of-living payments worth up to £1,100, The Times reported.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Sunak will accept an official recommendation to increase the living wage from £9.50 an hour to about £10.40 an hour, nearly a 10% rise, the newspaper reported.

Govt considering increase in energy windfall tax

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is considering a big increase in a windfall tax on oil and gas firms and extending it to power generation firms as he tries to find ways to repair the country’s public finances.

The idea is “under consideration” ahead of Hunt’s announcement of a new budget plan on Thursday, a government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Under the plan, first reported by The Times, the levy would be increased to 35% from its current rate of 25%. It would also apply to electricity generators and run until 2028 instead of 2025 as currently scheduled.

The newspaper said the tax would raise a total of 45 billion pounds ($53.3 billion) over the next five years.

A senior source at a North Sea producer, who was familiar with the government’s plans, said it was vital that a tax investment incentive was also extended and that the government avoid more tax changes so “investors can have confidence and continue putting cash into major North Sea developments.”

The chairman of Ithaca Energy, a newly listed North Sea oil and gas producer, said on Wednesday that removing incentives to invest in oil and gas would make the British offshore industry uneconomical.

Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have warned of tough decisions on tax increases and spending cuts as they try to restore Britain’s economy policy credibility following a bond market sell-off sparked in September by the now largely abandoned tax cut plans of former prime minister Liz Truss.

‘Putting public finances on sustainable trajectory’

The UK economy has “clearly” stabilised, Rishi Sunak has said, as he vowed to deliver on market expectations of shoring up the public finances.

The prime minister said this week’s autumn statement would “put our public finances on a sustainable trajectory”.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to unveil spending cuts and tax rises to fill a gap in the UK’s finances.

Sunak said he was fixing errors made by his predecessor Liz Truss, whose mini-budget left markets reeling.

The mini-budget in September included about £45bn of unfunded tax cuts and was followed by days of market turbulence, a fall in the value of the pound and rises in the cost of UK government borrowing.

Truss, who later accepted her mini-budget “went further and faster than markets were expecting”, resigned last month after Conservative MPs rebelled against her leadership.

She was replaced by Sunak who, in his first speech as prime minister, said Truss had made “mistakes” and he had been elected by his party “to fix them”.

Speaking to reporters on a plane to the G20 summit in Indonesia – his second foreign trip as PM – Sunak said “financial conditions in the UK have stabilised, clearly”.

He said to maintain that stability, “delivering on the expectations of international markets” and making sure “our fiscal position is on a more sustainable trajectory” were crucial.

“And that’s what we will do,” in the autumn statement, he said.

Speaking in Indonesia, Sunak said the “decisions we make will have fairness and compassion at their heart”, and reiterated that “stability has returned” to the UK.

On Sunday, his chancellor Hunt told the BBC everyone would need to pay “a bit more tax” to put the economy on a firmer footing.

Soaring living costs and a warning from the Bank of England that the UK is facing its longest recession since records began are the backdrop for the chancellor’s forthcoming announcement.

While acknowledging his plan would “disappoint people”, Mr Hunt promised to protect the “most vulnerable” and “make the recession we are in as short and shallow as possible”.

On Sunday, former cabinet minister Simon Clarke said tax rises risked choking off economic growth and suggested balancing the books through spending cuts instead.

Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng echoed that argument last week, saying said growth would not stem from “putting up our taxes”.

They said they were sceptical about the size of the “black hole” in the public finances and said a number of Tory MPs had concerns.

Treasury sources have previously estimated there was a gap of around £55bn in the public finances, but some economists have questioned this.

ALSO READ-Sunak sets out five-point economic action plan for G20

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In 6 months, around 190k Afghan refugees deported from Iran

The refugees who were forcefully sent to Iran also expressed frustration over the challenges they faced…reports Asian Lite News

As the atrocities against the Afghan refugees in neighbouring countries are on the surge, around 190,000 Afghans have been deported from Iran within the past six months, TOLOnews reported citing the analysts.

According to the analysts, the lack of jobs in the country and human rights violations have forced people to fly to neighbouring countries like Iran, and Turkey by unlawful means.

“I hope our country is developed and job opportunities are created for youth. I have witnessed a lot of problems in Iran,” said a deportee, Abdul Ghafor.

“Over the past six months, more than 68,258 refugees who were deported via Nimroz port were provided with aid,” said Sadiqullah Nasrat, head of the provincial department of Refugees and Repatriation, as per TOLOnews.

The refugees who were forcefully sent to Iran also expressed frustration over the challenges they faced.

Complaining about the poor situation in war-torn Afghanistan, another deportee, Khudad said, “I have not seen any happy days. I was always after work and then I was kicked out.”

One of the main reasons behind the rising number of Afghan immigrants in Iran is the political instability and economic crisis in Afghanistan. Since its ascent to power in Kabul, the Islamic group imposed policies severely restricting basic rights–particularly those of women and girls, TOLOnews reported.

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the Taliban dismissed all women from leadership posts in the civil service and prohibited girls in most provinces from attending secondary school.

Armed groups linked to the Afghan branch of the Islamic State have carried out bombings targeting ethnic Hazaras, Afghan Shias, Sufis, and others, killing and injuring hundreds.

Earlier, in May, a total of 1,094 Afghan nationals who had taken refuge in neighbouring countries of Pakistan and Iran returned home, as per the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation (MoRR).

More than 6,53,000 Afghan refugees have returned or been deported to Afghanistan mainly from neighbouring countries since August 2021, according to official figures from the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, as per the media reports. (ANI)

ALSO READ: Sharia law punishments return to Afghanistan

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Nepal junks Indian firm, gives contract to dubious Chinese firm

Earlier, the Nepalese Army rejected the bid of the technical proposal of the same company. However, following the complaint, the company was included in the bidding process….reports Asian Lite News

Eyebrows are being raised in Kathmandu over the Nepal Army awarding the contract for the sixth package of the Kathmandu-Terai Fast Track (KTFT) road project to a controversial Chinese company that was earlier rejected for the work as it did not have the technical expertise to carry out the project. The contract has been given to China First Highway Engineering Company, just days ahead of the general elections on November 20.

Afcons Infrastructure India was the only Indian company to be able to place its bid at such a short notice. It is learnt that the Indian authorities are now planning to take up the issue with Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

The contract has been awarded after the contractor company lodged an official complaint with the Public Procurement Monitoring Office (PPMO) which comes under the administrative control of the Nepal Prime Minister’s Office.

Earlier, the Nepalese Army rejected the bid of the technical proposal of the same company. However, following the complaint, the company was included in the bidding process.

The abrupt nature of the bidding process has also come to the fore.

The Nepalese Army gave 15 days for bidders to make arrangements to attend the financial bid that was slated to be held on September 16. However, the Army through an email sent on September 15 informed that the financial bid opening was being postponed until further notice. Thereafter the Army on November 6 sent a revised financial bid opening letter in which they included the name of the Chinese firm. The mail was sent at 5 pm in the evening. The financial bid was opened on November 7 at 1 pm and China First Highway Engineering was declared the lowest bidder.

“A scenario was created to plant this Chinese firm at the very last moment so that Afcons India did not get the project in the International competitive bid,” a person with direct knowledge told India Narrative.

Navita Srikant, who has earlier advised the Government of Nepal on governance and anti-corruption  said, “National Pride Projects in Nepal are generally well designed with adequate safeguards. After all it is about the reputation of Nepal and an ecosystem of fairness, transparency and accountability. Public procurement systems have been strengthened over recent years under direct oversight of the Prime Minister’s Office. However, in the case of KTFT-Package 06, the allegations are quite serious but I am hopeful that the Deuba government will not tolerate such a level of flouting of norms.”

That is not all.

Bikas Pokharel, who was serving as the project director of the mega project, was unceremoniously transferred while the tender process was underway. Kamal Bikram Shah, who replaced Pokharel, eventually signed the letter of intent (LoI) to the Chinese company.

News organisation Khabarhub.com said in a report that the tender to the Chinese company, which was not even technically competent, has been awarded on the basis of influence or pressure.

The construction of the Kathmandu-Tarai Expressway, being touted as a symbol of national pride, was kicked off in 2017. While the deadline was to complete the projects in four years, there has been a delay in construction work. The new deadline is July 2024.

Srikant added that ahead of general elections, zero tolerance to corruption is what a voter and foreign investor would want to see. “We hope to see corrective steps to award the contract as per the process,” she added.

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India joins 57 nations in long-term net-zero strategies

More than 100-page document specifies that it will focus on the following seven sectoral priorities to meet India’s decarbonisation goals….reports Asian Lite News

India on Monday joined 57 nations to have submitted long-term strategies for net-zero pathways at the on-going UN climate summit, COP27, in Egypt.

This is a follow-up of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in Glasgow where he committed to India meeting net-zero goal by 2070.

The report, Long Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), was launched by Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav at the India@75 pavilion at the COP27 venue in Sharm El-Sheikh.

India’s approach is based on four pillars that inform its climate policy landscape, namely its low historic contribution toward global warming, significant future energy needs of the country, national circumstances as it pertains to committing to low-emission growth strategies, and the need to build climate resilience.

More than 100-page document specifies that it will focus on the following seven sectoral priorities to meet India’s decarbonisation goals.

They are low carbon development in electricity systems consistent with development: The Indian government will prioritise demand side management for future planning of power systems.

The LT-LEDS also mentions the rationalisation of fossil fuels, “with due regard to energy security”. A further priority area will also be the development of green taxonomy for the power sector.

Develop an integrated, efficient, inclusive, low carbon transport system: The LT-LEDS section on transport includes priority planned actions around a phased transition to cleaner fuels. Demand side management measures have also been mentioned, along with measures on traffic management and intelligent transport systems.

Promote adaptation in urban design, energy and material efficiency in buildings, and sustainable urbanisation: Adaptation measures have been prioritised in the urban development section of the LT-LEDS along with low-carbon modes of municipal service delivery and waste management.

Promote economy-wide decoupling of emissions from growth, and development of an efficient, innovative, low-emission industrial system: India’s LT-LEDS for industrial decarbonisation depends heavily on measures to improve resource efficiency and exploration of fuel switching and electrification as and when viable.

The strategy document also places special focus on the decarbonisation of MSMEs, which have been largely absent in India’s decarbonisation story, despite carrying a significant industrial base, energy demand and being a large source of employment.

Enhancing forest and vegetation cover, consistent with socio-economic and ecological considerations: The LT-LEDS carries special focus on the restoration, conservation, and management of genetic resources contained within India’s forests, including but not limited to plant and animal diversity.

And economic and financial aspects of low carbon development: The strategy document recognises the challenges climate change and decarbonisation hold for fiscal policy and financial systems.

India’s long-term strategy shall involve the mainstreaming of climate finance and the development of new multilateral mechanisms for supporting innovation, and technology development.

Responding to the long-term low carbon strategy, R.R. Rashmi, Distinguished Fellow, The Energy Resource Institute (TERI), said: “With this, India joins the club of 57 countries that have long-term low emission growth strategies as required by the Paris Agreement. Unlike the NDCs which specify targets to be achieved in the 2030 timeframe, the long-term document is more strategic in nature. But, it outlines seven key sectors or areas of intervention where coordinated climate actions will help India move towards the eventual goal.

“However, the strategy makes it clear that the long-term vision is likely to take several decades and is contingent on the development of technologies, missions, and mainstreaming of climate finance.”

Ritu Mathur, Senior Energy Consultant, NITI Aayog, said: “India has demonstrated its commitment in terms of planning ahead and delineating the priority areas for facilitating rapid action. Identifying the challenges and opportunities is an important precursor to coherent and responsible development choices.”

India’s long-term strategy can guide the growth of Indian industry, urban planning, and infrastructure creation, said Ulka Kelkar, Director, Climate Change programme, World Resources Institute (India).

“Connecting India’s net-zero target with near-term climate actions is critical to avoid investments that might be incompatible with a low-emissions and climate-resilient future.”

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, Council for Energy, Environment and Water, said: “India’s long-term strategy follows up on the net-zero pledge and enhanced NDC goals, and cements India’s leadership. It clearly outlines key interventions across sectors that are going to be the focus of India’s efforts. Importantly, the document is an outcome of intensive stakeholder discussions.”

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India, Canada agree on unlimited flights as ties improve

Trudeau said Canada is making major investments in the Indo-Pacific that will strengthen its engagement in the long term….reports Asian Lite News

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday announced an agreement with India that will allow an unlimited number of flights between the two countries.

Trudeau, who took part in the Business 20 event here ahead of the G20 Summit, said faster and easier movement of goods and people between the two countries will facilitate mutual trade and investment.

“Today, we are announcing an agreement between Canada and India, that will allow an unlimited number of flights between our two countries,” he said.

“By making the movements of goods and people faster and easier, will facilitate trade and investment between Canada and India and help our businesses grow and succeed,” he added.

Trudeau said Canada is making major investments in the Indo-Pacific that will strengthen its engagement in the long term.

“For example, we are investing in new Canadian Trade Gateway in Southeast Asia that will help Canadian businesses expand into new markets linking them to business networks in this dynamic region. Canada and Indo-Pacific region also share strong ties between our people and we will make these ties even stronger,” he said.

Trudeau said global businesses and commerce need the predictability and reliability that the international rules-based order establishes and Canada will always stand up for it.

The Canadian Prime Minister said he had arrived in Bali from Cambodia where it was announced that Canada is elevating its relationship with ASEAN to a strategic partnership.

“This is a strong demonstration of our engagement in the region and as part of our plan to expand our economic ties in a big way. Last week, we announced Canada’s upcoming Indo-Pacific strategy. We are deepening our existing friendship in the region, seeking new allies and promoting stability. We know that business leaders like you are key to our individual and collective success. We also know that global businesses and commerce need the predictability and reliability that the international rules-based order establishes,” he said.

“This is something that Canada will always stand up for. Canada’s message is clear – We have the values that make us a solid, reliable partner. We have the raw materials and trade access and we have a skilled, educated, ambitious and diverse workforce like no other,” he added.

The announcement about an unlimited number of flights came on a day India and Canada held their second Consular Dialogue in New Delhi.

The Consular Dialogue mechanism between India and Canada was instituted to discuss and improve consular, visa and mutual legal assistance cooperation, and to strengthen people-to-people contacts.

The two sides held wide-ranging discussions on issues of concern to the Indian community which is the largest diaspora in Canada.

Both sides reiterated their commitment to continue to work towards solving issues relating to citizen-centric issues including reducing delays in visas and agreed to further strengthen bilateral relations through people-to-people exchanges.

President of Indonesia Joko Widodo will hand over the G20 Presidency to India at the closing ceremony of the Bali Summit being held on November 15 and 16.

India will officially assume the G20 Presidency from December 1, 2022.

During the G20 summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have extensive discussions with other G20 Leaders on key issues of global concern, such as reviving global growth, food and energy security, environment, health, and digital transformation.

He will meet leaders of several other participating countries on the sidelines of the G20 Summit and review the progress in India’s bilateral relations with them.

During his interactions at the G20 Summit, the Prime Minister will highlight India’s achievements, and its unwavering commitment to collectively address global challenges. (ANI)

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India and Finland to boost ties in digital education

The two nations also emphasised the establishment of formal collaborative working groups on issues of common interest…reports Asian Lite News

India and Finland have decided to take their bilateral cooperation to a new level and strengthen their partnership in areas like digital partnership in future ICT, future mobile technologies, and digital education.

Additionally, the two nations also emphasised the establishment of formal collaborative working groups on issues of common interest.

According to an official press release, India’s Union Minister of Science & Technology Jitendra Singh and Finland’s Minister of Education and Culture Petri Honkonen met in New Delhi on Monday. They discussed ways to improve bilateral cooperation between the two nations in the areas of science, technology, and innovation (STI).

In addition to this, high level delegations from both sides met separately in the presence of the two ministers.

While Singh reaffirmed India’s emphasis on collaboration during the meeting, the Finland Minister was all praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi for handling the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the efforts of the Union Government of India to ensure the development of vaccines and vaccination for all citizens.

In the fields of science, technology, and innovation, India and Finland are closely allied, according to the official press release.

The release also added that the Department of Science and Technology, Department of Biotechnology, Government of India, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland, along with Business Finland and Academy of Finland, have been working together successfully for more than 10 years within the framework of the S&T agreement.

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