The report states that high-frequency indicators point to a further levelling of growth in the global economy in the period going ahead…reports Asian Lite News
The high visibility of structural demand and healthier corporate and bank balance sheets are likely to propel India’s growth going forward even as the global economy is losing steam, according to the RBI’s monthly bulletin released on Tuesday.
The report states that high-frequency indicators point to a further levelling of growth in the global economy in the period going ahead.
While business activity is showing some slender improvement in both advanced and emerging economies, external demand remains subdued amidst country-specific weaknesses, including in the property sector, and spiralling public debt.
Labour markets remain resilient but are showing signs of easing, especially in terms of wage increases. However, in some Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), unemployment rates are edging up, the report adds.
In India, real GDP growth was at a six-quarter high in Q3:2023-24, powered by strong momentum, robust indirect taxes, and lower subsidies, the RBI bulletin states. However, there is a word of caution over inflation.
“Even as inflation is on the ebb with broad-based softening of core inflation, the repetitive incidence of short amplitude food price pressures deters a swifter fall in headline inflation towards the target of 4 per cent,” the bulletin states.
This would imply that the RBI will not be in a position to reduce key interest rates to back fiscal policy in spurring growth.
Another article in the RBI bulletin which talks of seasonal factors in the Indian economy, states that the consumer price index (CPI) witnesses price pressure during the monsoon season, driven by vegetable prices while fruit prices peak during the summer months.
Compared to the pre-COVID period, seasonal variation has also increased for cash in hand and balances with RBI, production of primary goods, consumer goods, textiles, petroleum products, electricity production, passenger vehicle sales and merchandise exports, it adds
Growth in oil importers also slowed somewhat last year, reflecting anemic private sector activity, the report said, adding that growth is expected to edge up to 3.2 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2025…reports Asian Lite News
The World Bank expected the UAE’s real GDP to grow by 3.4 percent in 2023, rising to 3.7 percent in 2024 and to 3.8 percent in 2025. According to the Global Economic Prospects report released today, the World Bank forecast the growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to rise to 3.6 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, noting to last year’s robust non-oil sector activity.
The report said that the growth rate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region slowed down sharply to 1.9 percent in 2023, as the region faced multiple headwinds, including oil production cuts, elevated inflation, and weak private sector activity in oil-importing economies. The report also expected the growth rate in the MENA region to pick up to 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2025.
Growth in oil importers also slowed somewhat last year, reflecting anemic private sector activity, the report said, adding that growth is expected to edge up to 3.2 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2025. According to the report, the growth in Saudi Arabian is projected to grow by 4.1 percent this year, rising to 4.2 percent next year, while the Kuwaiti economy is expected to grow by 2.6 percent by the end of this year, rising to 2.7 percent next year. The Bahraini economy is expected to grow by 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.
The report expected Qatar’s economy to grow by 2.5 percent this year, rising to 3.1 percent next year, while the economy of Oman is estimated to grow by 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025.(ANI/WAM)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, alongside India’s leadership and initiatives, exemplified dedication to environmental conservation and prosperity…reports Mahdeep
The two-day G20 policy workshop on the Green and Sustainable Growth Agenda for the Global Economy, held in New Delhi, marked a pivotal moment in environmental progress.
It was organised by NITI Aayog, in collaboration with IDRC and GDN, the workshop brought together over 40 global experts from diverse fields. It served as a side event of the G20 and delved into crucial themes of green growth, energy, climate, technology, and policy, among others.
The gathering generated valuable recommendations for green and sustainable growth, emphasizing a resolute commitment to a greener future.
Concurrently, the 4th and last ECSWG and Ministers meeting was held in Chennai that highlighted significant achievements while acknowledging the urgent challenges that demand global attention.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, alongside India’s leadership and initiatives, exemplified dedication to environmental conservation and prosperity.
As the G20 reaffirmed its commitment to climate action and the Paris Agreement, some areas remained unresolved, necessitating focused efforts at the upcoming COP28 talks to drive tangible progress.
A two-day G20 policy workshop on the Green and Sustainable Growth Agenda for the Global Economy was held on July 28-29 in New Delhi. It was organised by NITI Aayog in collaboration with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, and the Global Development Network (GDN), New Delhi, to discuss the prospects and challenges of green and sustainable growth on a global scale.
The workshop was a side event of G20 that covered various themes related to green growth, energy, climate, technology, policy, employment, multilateralism as well as adjustment, resilience and inclusion in an uncertain world, etc. The two-day policy workshop was attended by more than 40 global experts from diverse fields.
NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Suman Bery emphatically asserted that the goal of achieving a green transition aligns with the larger objective of becoming a developed nation by 2047.
NITI Aayog will convene a two-day #G20 conference on the Green and Sustainable Growth Agenda for the Global Economy in New Delhi tomorrow.
— All India Radio News (@airnewsalerts) July 27, 2023
The discussions during this policy workshop have generated several important suggestions and recommendations for green and sustainable growth. Bery observed that NITI Aayog will pursue some of these through various fora. With unwavering dedication, they endeavour to propel the global economy towards a future defined by environmental resilience and prosperity.
The G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant observed that achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and climate action needs an investment of about five to six trillion dollars. This in turn is likely to throw up business opportunities of about 90 trillion dollars.
Referring to the Indian Prime Minister Modi’s vision of achieving the Net Zero target by 2070, Kant observed that India will play a key role in green growth and sustainable development. B.V. R. Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, underlined the institution’s commitment to a fundamental role in creating ecosystems that facilitate the adoption of frontier technologies.
At about the same time, the 4th and conclusive Environment and Climate Sustainability Working Group (ECSWG) and Environment and Climate Ministers meeting, took place in Chennai.
The meet saw the consensual adoption of an Outcome document, the Chennai High Level Principles for a Sustainable and Resilient Blue/Ocean-based Economy.
It will be submitted to the Leaders for their consideration to be appended to the G20 New Delhi Leader’s Declaration 2023. This milestone underscores a steadfast commitment to nurturing a sustainable and resilient blue economy, resonating profoundly with environmentalists worldwide.
Shri Bhupender Yadav, Union Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change presided over the Ministerial meeting and commanded the attendance of 41 Ministers or their deputies from the various nations.
They highlighted significant achievements and key takeaways centered around the priority areas under the Environment and Climate track: Land and Biodiversity, Blue Economy, the judicious management of Water Resources, and the transformative potential of the Circular Economy.
The meeting was animated by proactive engagement from over 225 delegates representing G20 member countries, invitee countries and heads and representatives of 23 International organizations including UNEP, UNFCC, COP28 and UNCCD. Their interventions revolved around critical challenges pertaining to concerns about climate and environment which call for urgent global attention.
In his video message to the delegates and ministers participating in the meeting, Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressed his confidence in the G20 countries joining hands to tackle the climate and environmental challenges in a holistic way. Commending the achievements of the priority areas under the ECSWG, he lauded the efforts in restoring priority landscapes impacted by forest fires and mining through the Gandhinagar Information Platform and Gandhinagar Implementation Roadmap.
He also commended the dedication to wildlife conservation manifest in the recent launch of the International Big Cat Alliance. Highlighting India’s initiatives being powered by people’s participation, Modi cited the example of Mission Amrit Sarovar, a unique water conservation initiative under which more than sixty-three thousand water bodies have been created.
The leaders acknowledged India’s Presidency for efforts in developing the compendiums of best practices in water management, mining-affected areas, and forest fire-impacted areas, and for conducting a technical study on ‘Accelerating the transition to a sustainable and resilient blue economy’, and preparing technical documents on significant topics such as Knowledge Exchange on Circular Economy in Steel Sector, Extended Producer Responsibility and Circular Bioeconomy. India has also prepared the Gandhinagar Implementation Roadmap and Gandhinagar Implementation Framework for voluntary adoption by G20 members.
Addressing a Press Conference following the Ministerial meeting Bhupender Yadav noted with satisfaction that the Environment Climate and Sustainability Working Group had arrived at a high degree of consensus towards addressing the critical pillars of environment and sustainability. The ECSWG’s journey under India’s Presidency concluded with the adoption of the Chair’s Summary and Outcome Documents.
Yadav also highlighted the successful Mega Beach Clean Up Event at Juhu in Mumbai, with participation from 20 countries and 37 Indian beaches spanning coastal states and Union Territories. The event aimed to raise awareness and sensitize people in line with the
Indian Ministers’ message of ‘Swachhta’ (cleanliness) and ‘Jan Bhagidari’ (Community participation). He further emphasized the unique concept of ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE) and the crucial role of individual actions in combatting marine pollution.
The launch of an industry-led Resource Efficiency and Circular Economy Industry Coalition (RECEIC) was another significant intervention under India’s G20 Presidency. The coalition was launched by minister Yadav in the presence of the Commissioner from EU and Ministers from France, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Mauritius and the UAE. The G20 Ministers also called for the G20 Resource Efficiency dialogue to engage with RECEIC and leverage synergies.
The goal of achieving green transition goes hand-in-hand with the larger goal of becoming Viksit Bharat by 2047: @suman_bery, VC NITI Aayog
NITI Aayog concludes 2-day #G20 conference on ‘A Green and Sustainable Growth Agenda for the Global Economy’ at New Delhi.
India’s G20 Presidency released one outcome document and two Presidency Documents under the theme of Blue Economy. Four Presidency Documents and Compendiums of Best Practices under the theme of Land and Biodiversity and Water resources management were released. There are four more Presidency Documents under the theme of Resource Efficiency and Circular Economy.
G20 countries reaffirmed their resolve to tackle climate change and ambitious action across all pillars of the Paris Agreement. Themes like ecological restoration, marine spatial planning, and circular economy were addressed for the first time in the G20 discussions in detail.
However, the Chennai meet saw some challenges in reaching a consensus on various environmental goals, such as renewable energy, fossil fuel reduction, energy efficiency improvement, and GHG emissions peaking by 2025.
Despite the presence of climate and energy ministers from all G20 nations, along with US special climate envoy John Kerry and COP28 president-designate Sultan Al-Jaber, significant progress on these issues remained elusive. Now, the focus shifts to the upcoming COP28 talks this winter, where tangible strides towards addressing these concerns can be achieved.
The Group of Seven also called for the “extension, full implementation and expansion” of a grain deal that has been essential to export Ukrainian produce through the Black Sea…reports Asian Lite News
Agriculture ministers from the Group of Seven advanced economies on Sunday adopted a statement pledging to promote policies to support the growth of sustainable agricultural productivity in order to strengthen food security, which has been threatened by climate change and the crisis in Ukraine, Jiji Press reported.
At the meeting, the ministers also compiled “Miyazaki Actions,” an action plan that gives outlines of policies to be implemented by each country in efforts to achieve sustainable agriculture and food systems, such as making use of existing domestic agricultural resources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and facilitating responsible private sector investment. Japanese agriculture minister Tetsuro Nomura, who chaired the meeting, told a joint press conference that the G-7 statement and action plan are “a very significant outcome that would make a difference in food security.”
They will be reflected in discussions at the G-7 summit in the western Japan city of Hiroshima in May.
The ministers said in the statement that they are “deeply concerned about the devastating impact the crisis in Ukraine is having on food security globally.”
The Group of Seven also called for the “extension, full implementation and expansion” of a grain deal that has been essential to export Ukrainian produce through the Black Sea.
G7 agriculture ministers “recognized the importance” of the deal, following a two-day meeting in Miyazaki, Japan. “We strongly support the extension, full implementation and expansion” of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, they said in a communiqué.
Under the pact, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, some 28 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported since last July, including to poor countries facing the brunt of the global food crisis.
But Russia is threatening to walk away from the agreement unless its demands are met, portending a return to the full-scale maritime blockade that halted Ukraine’s grain exports in the months after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February last year. The Kremlin has warned that ship registrations would only continue until May 18.
“We condemn Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia’s weaponization of food,” the G7 ministers said in the communiqué.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Sunday warned on Telegram that if the G7 moved to ban exports to Russia, Moscow would terminate the grain deal. The G7 countries are reportedly considering a near-total ban on exports to Russia.
The call comes as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to meet with U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres in New York in coming days to discuss an extension of the deal beyond May 18.
A customer shops at a supermarket in Rome, Italy, April 1, 2022.(Xinhua/Jin Mamengni/IANS)
This means that if the economy shrinks again this quarter, as widely anticipated, Italy will enter into a recession, which is defined by back-to-back quarters of negative growth…reports Asian Lite News
Economic growth in Italy was stronger than expected last year, at 3.9 per cent, according to official data released on Tuesday.
However, the Italian economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2022, making it likely that it will enter into a technical recession this year.
The data from Italy’s National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) provides the first full-year picture of the country’s economic performance last year, a period blighted by high inflation, energy shortages, and trade problems sparked by the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Although the 3.9-per cent growth rate for the full year beats the forecast in the Italian government’s 2022-23 economic blueprint, the 0.1 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022 broke a trend of seven consecutive quarters of positive economic growth, ISTAT said.
This means that if the economy shrinks again this quarter, as widely anticipated, Italy will enter into a recession, which is defined by back-to-back quarters of negative growth.
However, despite the contraction over the last three months of the year, Italy’s economy was still 1.7 per cent larger than during the same period a year earlier.
CBI chief will use his speech at the annual conference in Birmingham to praise some “incredibly welcome” announcements in last week’s autumn statement, while also warning the UK must go further to solve years of stagnating growth…reports Asian Lite News
Use immigration to solve worker shortages and end arguments over Brexit in a bid to boost growth, Confederation of British Industry chief Tony Danker will tell politicians on Monday.
Danker, the group’s director general, will use his speech at the CBI annual conference in Birmingham to praise some “incredibly welcome” announcements in last week’s autumn statement, while also warning the UK must go further to solve years of stagnating growth.
Senior politicians are expected to attend the business body’s two-day conference, days after Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled £25 billion of tax rises in a budget designed to restore market confidence in the UK after former prime minister Liz Truss’s disastrous attempt.
The move from massive tax cuts to steep tax rises has been criticised by some on the Conservative back benches, raising speculation of a rebellion by MPs over some measures.
“The painful reality about growth is that it can’t be stimulated overnight,” Danker will tell the conference, with the UK said to be already in recession. “That’s what the mini-budget got wrong. Across-the-board tax cuts. Immediate demand stimulus. Relying on the old British strength, consumption, at the expense of the perennial British weakness, investment, has given growth a bad name.”
Praising Hunt for “staying the course” on projects designed to generate growth, such as the high-speed rail programme and the new nuclear power plant at Sizewell C, the CBI chief will also offer the government solutions to boost the flagging economy.
Danker will also call on politicians to be “practical” about immigration, according to excerpts from his speech that were released early.
“Let’s have economic migration in areas where we aren’t going to get the people and skills at home any time soon. In return, let’s make those visas fixed term.”
He will also urge reform of regulations and red tape.
“I know that some Conservative politicians today feel that this issue is the fault of Europe, Danker will say.
“But the biggest regulatory barriers facing businesses today are based on British laws, created by a British parliament, and administered by British regulators.”
He is also expected to flag concerns over Brexit, namely the as-yet unresolved row with the EU about the Northern Ireland Protocol.
“Boris Johnson achieved a deal with the EU that allows us to continue to trade tariff and quota free with our biggest trading partner. There’s some good stuff in there. Currently locked up. But still we argue over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Still we argue over sovereignty. Get round the table, do the deal, unlock the Trade and Co-operation Agreement. I say to Brexiteers, the best guarantor of Brexit is an economy that grows. Its biggest risk is one that doesn’t. Now I know that some of these things will not be popular with politicians but while I have no problem with government taking tough choices to bring stability, I want them to also take tough choices for growth.”
The United States shrank in both the first and second quarters of this year, meeting one commonly used definition of recession…reports Asian Lite News
British businesses do not expect any growth over the next three months, as a surging cost of living squeezes consumer demand, a monthly survey showed on Sunday.
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said members reported above-average growth in the three months to the end of July – slightly faster than in the three months to June – but expect this to peter out in the months ahead.
“As firms and consumers continue to be buffeted by rising prices, private-sector activity has slowed to a near standstill,” CBI economist Alpesh Paleja said.
The Bank of England is widely expected to announce its biggest interest rate rise since 1995 on Thursday, raising rates to 1.75% from 1.25% to tame inflation that is already at a 40-year high of 9.4%.
However, the BoE has warned that Britain’s economy is likely to contract later this year, when a 40% jump in regulated energy tariffs hits consumers in October, and has forecast the economy will contract slightly next year.
The United States shrank in both the first and second quarters of this year, meeting one commonly used definition of recession.
Last week the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would see the weakest growth of any major economy other than Russia next year.
The CBI said its monthly output balance, based on surveys of manufacturers, services companies and retailers, rose to +8 for the three months to July from +5 for the three months to June. July’s expected balance for the next three months was zero, up from -3 in June.
Manufacturers expect current slow growth to persist, while consumer services and retail businesses see a fall in sales, and business services expect growth to slow, the CBI said.
“This is unsurprising, given that strong inflation has been pushing real wages down sharply, and consumer confidence is at an all-time low,” it added.
The IMF has cut its 2022 global growth forecast to just 3.2% and warned the slowdown risks being even more severe…reports Asian Lite News
The country is set for the slowest growth of the G7 richest economies next year, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
It is predicting UK growth will fall to just 0.5% in 2023, much lower than its forecast in April of 1.2%.
The global economy has shrunk for the first time since 2020, the IMF said, hit by the Ukraine war and Covid-19.
With growth stalling in the UK, US, China and Europe, the world “may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession”, it said.
“We know that people are feeling the impact of rising prices, caused by global economic factors, triggered by the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine,” a HM Treasury spokesperson said in a statement, adding that help for households included £400 off energy bills plus personal tax cuts worth up to £330 a year.
The IMF has cut its 2022 global growth forecast to just 3.2% and warned the slowdown risks being even more severe.
It said fast-rising prices were to blame for much of the slowdown, with households and businesses squeezed by a combination of higher prices and higher borrowing costs as policymakers raise interest rates to try to counter inflation.
“The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook,” economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in a blog outlining the international lending body’s latest economic forecast.
“The outlook has darkened significantly” since April, the last time the IMF issued forecasts, he added.
The global economy contracted in the three months to July, which was the first decline since the pandemic hit, the IMF said.
The probability of a recession in the G7 economies – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and UK – now stands at roughly 15% – nearly four times higher than usual.
While UK growth is expected to remain relatively strong this year, Gourinchas said unusually high inflation – faster than in Europe or the US – is expected to take a toll in 2023.
The IMF now expects inflation to reach 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in emerging market and developing economies – nearly a full percentage point higher than it expected in April.
“Inflation at current levels represents a clear risk for current and future macroeconomic stability and bringing it back to central bank targets should be the top priority for policymakers,” Gourinchas said. “Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.”
He will also take aim at the Conservatives’ leadership contest, which pits foreign minister Liz Truss against former finance minister Rishi Sunak in th race to replace Prime Minister Boris Johnson…reports Asian Lite News
British opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer will set out his plan to foster economic growth on Monday, adding his voice to a debate that has dominated the Conservative Party’s race to become the country’s next prime minister.
Starmer, criticised by some in his party for not spelling out clear policies to challenge the Conservatives who are again caught up in a leadership contest, will say his emphasis on economic growth might “challenge my party’s instincts”.
“It pushes us to care as much about growth and productivity as we have done about redistribution and investment in the past,” he will say, according to extracts of his speech.
Only Labour can deliver the strong, secure and fair economic growth that Britain needs. pic.twitter.com/NTUeYvMex5
Starmer will say he wants to see “fair” growth which will maximise “the contribution we all make to national prosperity”, though the excerpts of the speech provided no details of the policies he would pursue to achieve that goal.
He will also take aim at the Conservatives’ leadership contest, which pits foreign minister Liz Truss against former finance minister Rishi Sunak in th race to replace Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Truss and Sunak have clashed over the timing of tax cuts they have both promised but agree on wanting to boost sluggish economic growth at a time when the country is facing rising inflation and a possible recession.
“You will see a clear contrast between my Labour Party and the Thatcherite cosplay on display tonight,” he will say before the two contenders take part in a debate on Monday evening, in a reference to Conservative former prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
“The difference between a Labour party ready to take Britain forward. And a Tory party that wants to take us back into the past.”
Inflation for the whole of the EU is expected to reach 6.8 per cent this year…reports Asian Lite News
The Russia-Ukraine was has forced the European Commission to slash its annual growth expectation for both the European Union (EU) and eurozone this year.
Real GDP growth in both the EU and the eurozone is now expected at 2.7 per cent in 2022 and 2.3 per cent in 2023, down from its February forecast of 4.0 per cent in 2022 and 2.8 per cent (2.7 percent in the eurozone) in 2023, Xinhua news agency quoted the Commission’s Spring 2022 Economic Forecast which released on Monday.
It also increased its inflation forecast to 6.1 per cent in the eurozone in 2022 as steep increases in prices across the board continue to grow.
Inflation for the whole of the EU is expected to reach 6.8 per cent this year.
European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni described the cut in projected growth as “one of the steepest” ever done due to higher commodity prices, including energy, which have increased further since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out on February 24.
“Both private consumption and investment are expected to be negatively affected by high inflation, uncertainty and aggravated supply bottlenecks. At the same time, consumption should continue benefitting from the post-pandemic reopening momentum, a buoyant labor market, lower accumulation of savings and fiscal measures to offset rising energy,” Gentiloni told a news conference.
He said inflation has been picking up momentum since early 2021.
In the eurozone, it rose to 7.5 per cent in April, “the highest rate in the history of our monetary union”.
Gentiloni warned that this forecast is however subject to high uncertainty and risks that are closely linked to the development of the conflict.
“Other scenarios are possible under which growth may be lower and inflation higher than we are projecting today,” he cautioned.
