During the past three decades China has expanded and deepened its ties with African countries on its own terms by side-lining conventional western standards of human rights and governance. While promoting its own national interests the PRC has supported even autocratic regimes of Robert Mugabe (1980-2017) and Omar-al Bashir (1989-2019) in resource-rich Zimbabwe and Sudan, respectively, writes Rajen Harshe
On October 22, 2022, President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) predictably won his third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC). After the elections Xi Jinping has emerged the most powerful leader because the seven member Standing Committee of the Politburo is filled with his own loyalists. By the 100th anniversary of the PRC in 2049, China is aspiring to lead the world in terms of ‘composite national strength and international influence”. This goal can be achieved with speedier material and technological advancements that can enhance the prosperity of the people within China and by establishing the dominant presence of China across all the major areas in the world. In this context, the Sino-African ties have assumed significance. Since the advent of Xi Jinping to power in 2012, China’s footprint in Africa has grown consistently.
To attain its long-term goals, the PRC aims at reintegrating Taiwan, by 2027 within itself to counter the US dominance in the entire Pacific region. Since its inception, the PRC has promoted ‘one China policy’ which has had a massive success in Africa. Currently, out of 54 African states only Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) recognizes Taiwan while the rest of the 53 states recognize the PRC. In fact, in the past, the support of 26 African states in the UN General Assembly had facilitated the PRC’s admission into the UN. In its turn, the PRC had also supported anti-colonial and anti-racist movements in Africa and built the famous Tan-Zam railway line that connected Zambia to Tanzania and gave access to Zambian exports to the sea.
Moreover, after the Tiananmen square protests for democracy in China of 1989 as the Western world became critical of China the latter found support in Africa. During the past three decades China has expanded and deepened its ties with African countries on its own terms by side-lining conventional western standards of human rights and governance. While promoting its own national interests the PRC has supported even autocratic regimes of Robert Mugabe (1980-2017) and Omar-al Bashir (1989-2019) in resource-rich Zimbabwe and Sudan, respectively.
Like Russia, China has been playing a major role in Africa in security related areas because it is among the important arms suppliers to Africa. It has signed loan deals with eight African countries worth US $3.5 billion from 2000 to 2020 for defence spending. Chinese armoured vehicles and military vehicles are proliferating in African countries. Besides, China has exported arms to the so-called rogue states that have no regard for international norms. Omar -al Bashir’s regime in Sudan is a case in point. This had accentuated intra-state conflict and led to violation of human rights in Sudan. Apart from providing security related technologies in Africa, China has assiduously built a military base in Djibouti which is strategically located in the horn of Africa. There is every likelihood of China establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea in future.
In the realm of development cooperation, China has been operating its Africa policy through the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FoCAC) by organising a tri annual multilateral dialogue with 53 African states, except Eswatini. Besides, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a transcontinental infrastructure development project involving US $1 trillion, has 46 signatories from Africa. China is also building digital infrastructure in Africa. Although the BRI is being critiqued for the so-called ‘debt trap diplomacy’ it might warrant a more nuanced assessment that offers African states an agency.
On the whole, the Sino-African ties are asymmetric. China happens to be the largest trading partner, bilateral creditor and investor in infrastructure and development in Africa. The Sino-Africa trade was as high as US$ 254 billion in 2021. However, Africa’s share in trade with China is only four percent of China’s total trade. Most African countries have trade deficits with China. Only commodity exporting countries like Angola, South Africa and Congo contribute roughly 62 percent of the African trade. African countries also accounted for US$153 billion cumulative loans from China from 2000 to 2019.
Since China is keen on capturing key strategic resources, its energy hungry economy has built sound ties with oil rich countries like Sudan/South Sudan, Angola and Nigeria. China has virtual monopoly on cobalt mining in Congo which possesses 70 percent of the world cobalt. There are 15 out of 19 cobalt mining companies in Congo from China.
Although the manner of functioning of a number of Chinese companies can be exploitative and violative of human rights there is a wide network of over 10000 Chinese state-owned as well as private Chinese companies operating in Africa. Some of these companies are doing very well. For instance, by being sensitive to demands of the consumers in African markets, a private company like Transsion has captured half of the phone market in Africa. Furthermore, Chinese migrants are rising in Africa and China has been promoting its soft power through roughly 60 Confucius Institutes by spreading the Chinese culture and civilisation in Africa.
Briefly, in its endeavour to lead the world, China’s presence will certainly expand and further deepen through multiple grand projects related to security and development cooperation where Sino-African ties will witness greater integration.
(Rajen Harshé is a leading scholar in International Relations and former Vice Chancellor of the University of Allahabad)
Xi said China will continue to firmly support Cuba in defending its national sovereignty and opposing external interference and blockade…reports Asian Lite News
Chinese President and general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Xi Jinping on Friday held talks with Cuban President and first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez.
Xi said Diaz-Canel is the first Latin American and Caribbean head of state received by China since the 20th CPC National Congress held last month, which fully demonstrates the special friendship between the two countries and parties, Xinhua news agency reported.
“Cuba is the first country in the Western Hemisphere that established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. Our ties have become an example of solidarity and cooperation between socialist countries, as well as an example of sincere mutual assistance between developing countries,” Xi said.
After presenting the key outcomes of the 20th CPC National Congress, Xi stressed that the CPC will unite and lead the Chinese people to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization.
“No matter how the international situation may change, China’s commitment to long-term friendship with Cuba will not change. China’s determination to support Cuba in pursuing socialism will not change. China’s will to work with Cuba to safeguard international fairness and justice and oppose hegemony and power politics will not change,” Xi said.
Xi said China will continue to firmly support Cuba in defending its national sovereignty and opposing external interference and blockade, adding that China is ready to work with Cuba to implement the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative and jointly promote world peace and development.
China has still not been able to develop capable defence hardware and still struggles with poor-quality materials and massive costs of maintenance….reports Asian Lite News
China’s president and People’s Liberation Army head Xi Jinping is going all out to increase the military’s might and the country has not spared any effort to gain access to defence technologies from across the world by any means, Policy Research Group reported.
China has built its military strength on stolen and copied technologies from various countries, not only the United States and other European countries. It has not even hesitated to copy technologies from Russia, according to news agency ANI.
It is using both direct and indirect tools for expanding its military might. It has also invested huge sums of money in countries that don’t have the potential to pay the loans that they owe to China.
It has not even refrained from using means like cyber theft or using Chinese nationals to grab secrets of military warfare from other countries.
China uses dynamic random access memory, anti-submarine and aviation technologies to gather critical military secrets from the US, The Policy Research Group (POREG) reported citing a Pentagon report.
Another pattern of Chinese nationals getting arrested for sharing military secrets has been observed for the last six years and is still ongoing.
According to the Policy Research Group (POREG), on October 24 this year, four Chinese nationals were arrested for illegally sharing US military secrets with China. Three of these nationals were found to be officers of the Chinese Ministry of State Security.
In 2021, six academicians were arrested when they were not able to explain their link to a Chinese research institute. One of these arrested people was Gang Chen a known Massachusetts Institute of Technology. However, he was cleared of all the previous charges later on.
PLA officials posing as regular grad students were arrested by the FBI in 2020. Out of these Xin Wang during the interrogation accepted to be a PLA official and was employed as a major by a military lab in China.
One more Chinese PLA official was arrested as he had enrolled himself in Indiana University’s Luddy School of Informatics, Computing and Engineering studying AI.
As a result of all these suspicious activities, a Chinese consulate was forced to close in Houston of the Southern United States. All of these PLA officials had been sent to a foreign land to learn modern technologies and enable themselves for advanced warfare.
Another, PLA official enacting as a businessman was arrested in 2016 as he had spied on US plans for F-35, C-17 Globemaster and the F-22. He also had conspired with two more officials that hacked into Boeing and other aviation companies for stealing military secrets.
It is alleged that the Chinese J-20 is similar to F-22 and J-31 resembles the F-35 American aircraft. However, China has declined any such claims. according to The Policy Research Group (POREG)
A cyber attack was also traced on Rostec Corporation to steal airborne satellite communications, radar and electronic warfare. This cyber attack can prove fatal as Rostec Corporation is one of the largest defence establishments in Russia.
China is clandestinely sourcing retired Western military pilots from countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, and New Zealand to train PLA’s defence forces. These pilots are trained in operating all the latest defence and warfare technologies.
However, China has still not been able to develop capable defence hardware and still struggles with poor-quality materials and massive costs of maintenance. Adding to all this the J-20 Chinese aircraft was recently showcased in Zhuhai Air Show as a stealth military jet. However, Justin Bronk, a London-based Royal United Service Institute analyst has said that he is not impressed, according to Policy Research Group (POREG).
China has not only limited itself to merely gathering military secrets, it is also expanding its establishments across countries that cannot pay its huge investments disguised as infrastructural development loans.
Submarine capability
Submarines, often termed “silent killers”, are secretive but vital assets for any self-respecting navy. It is certainly the case for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China, which has been prioritizing modernization of its underwater fleet.
Recent revelations – including a senior US Navy official declaring that new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) have been fielded, plus indications of construction of a new type of nuclear-powered submarine, and new submarine infrastructure on Hainan Island – all reinforce this assessment of the PLAN’s submarine fleet.
Admiral Sam Paparo, head of the US Pacific Fleet, told reporters at a conference in Washington DC last week that the PLAN’s six Jin-class submarines are now “equipped with JL-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles”.
Reported by news outlets such as Bloomberg, this revelation came from nowhere, for there has been no chatter from open-source analysts that this might be the case. Indeed, this is the first official confirmation from the USA that the JL-3 missile has been operationalized. Moreover, it was expected that the new SLBM would only appear with the advent of future Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).
These current aforementioned Jin-class vessels, also known as Type 094 SSBNs, have hitherto been armed with JL-2 SLBMs. However, the JL-3 brings new capabilities such as greater range, such that these half dozen submarines could launch nuclear warheads at the USA from much farther away.
It is extremely unlikely that sufficient JL-3s have been produced to outfit every Type 094, though. Paparo added that the JL-3s “were built to threaten the United States”, but he added, “We keep close track of those submarines.”
The incumbent JL-2 has an estimated range of 7,200km, meaning that Chinese Type 094s would need to sail to the north or east of Hawaii to bring the USA’s east coast within range of missiles. However, Paparo refused to say whether Chinese SSBNs have conducted deterrence patrols deep in the Pacific Ocean or near Hawaii. The JL-3 has an estimated range of more than 10,000km.
In March 2022, Admiral Charles Richard, head of the US Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the JL-3 would permit China to target the US mainland “from a protected bastion within the South China Sea”.
This came on top of the Pentagon’s comments last year: “As the PRC fields newer, more capable and longer-ranged SLBMs such as the JL-3, the PLAN will gain the ability to target the continental United States from littoral waters, and thus may consider bastion operations to enhance the survivability of its sea-based deterrent. The South China Sea and Bohai Gulf are probably the PRC’s preferred options for employing this concept.”
Given a range of 10,000km, a JL-3 fired from the South China Sea would not have the legs to reach the continental USA. It could do so from the Bohai Sea, however, which is closer to the Korean Peninsula and Japan. However, given Richard’s comments, this night indicate that the USA actually estimates the JL-3’s range to significantly surpass 10,000km.
The US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center stated in its Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report that, “In late November 2018, China tested a new JL-3 in the Bohai Sea.” China has not officially admitted that the JL-3 even exists, but this is unsurprising given the paranoia that surrounds China’s military. The JL-3 will also have multiple warheads to multiply its deterrence value and increase the odds of warheads making it past defenses in any nuclear strike.
A soldier looks through binoculars during combat exercises and training of the navy of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the waters around the Taiwan Island, Aug. 5, 2022. (Photo by Lin Jian/Xinhua/IANS)
Richard also pointed out: “They’re now capable of continuous at-sea determined patrols with their Jin-class submarines,” and that “more are coming. They have a true nuclear command and control system.” There is further evidence that China’s construction of new types of nuclear-powered submarines is already well underway.
In February 2021, satellite imagery showed what may have been a first hull section of a new nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) or an SSBN. Specifically, it was a tail section seen at a relatively new site near the Bohai shipyard in Huludao where all nuclear-powered submarines are constructed. The hull section was some 30-32m long, and had a diameter in the vicinity of 11-12m.
While the hull section might be a version of the Type 093 Shang class optimized for YJ- 18 cruise missiles fired from vertical launchers, it could well be for a Type 095 (a new Chinese SSN comparable to the US Navy’s Virginia class) or, even more likely, for a Type 096 SSBN.
Yet more evidence has emerged from more recent satellite imagery. Photos taken in October 2022 showed sections of submarine pressure hulls at the same shipyard. What is significant is that these sections had a sizably greater diameter than those of current Shang- and Jin-class boats. The latter are generally around 9-10m in diameter, but the new under-construction hull sections are about 12m in diameter.
If all the above speculation is correct, the presence of the hull sections are confirmatory signs of construction of the new Type 096 SSBN. These long-awaited new submarines will be larger, quieter and more capable. The pressure hull needs to be larger in order to provide space to insulate the steel hull from machinery vibrations. The Type 093 is noisy and, although the 093A is better, it is still not on par with an American Los Angeles-class boat. The greater diameter of hull sections is evidence that the PLAN’s new boats will be quieter than ever before.
Expect new Chinese boats to have anechoic coatings on their hulls to improve stealth too. A bigger boat also enables a larger crew, and this could enable longer underwater patrols. Expansion at the Bohai yard since 2014 allows greater production rates, with a new construction hall and dry dock established on reclaimed land. The hall, finished in 2017, contains three construction bays with sufficient space to build two submarines.
A launch barge has been supplied too, which transfers completed hulls from the hall to the water. In other words, China now has all the infrastructure in place to build Type 095s and/or 096s. China will need to replace three Type 091 Han-class SSNs dating from the 1980s, since these first-generation submarines are approaching the end of their natural lives. Otherwise, the PLAN relies on the Type 093 Shang class that entered service in 2006.
Interestingly, the USA also refers what it calls Type 093B SSNs arriving by the mid-2020s. The Pentagon predicted: “This new Shang-class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if equipped with land attack cruise missiles.” There is development in terms of infrastructure for Chinese nuclear submarines too. Yulin Naval Base on the southern tip of Hainan Island, touching the South China Sea, is home to China’s nuclear-submarine fleet.
Satellite imagery from late July shows that two new submarine piers are being built there, on top of four already in existence. One pier that is 175m long and around 20m wide is to the north, and the other in the south is about 238m long. They both connect to newly reclaimed land at the base. Construction and reclamation has taken place sometime since February 2022.
In the same satellite imagery, three Type 094 submarines were berthed there, as well as one Type 093 SSN. This Yulin facility also has a cavern tunneled inside the adjacent mountain to protect and hide activity related to strategic submarines.
At the same base, China has constructed another large pier capable of accommodating the Shandong aircraft carrier. A massive new dry dock able to fit a carrier is also under construction there. In its most recent report on developments in the PLA, the Pentagon in the USA acknowledged that “the PLAN has placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine force, but its force structure continues to grow modestly as it works to mature its force, integrate new technologies and expand its shipyards”.
As of last year, the PLAN possessed six SSBNs, six SSNs and 46 diesel-powered attack submarines. The US predicts: “The PLAN will likely maintain between 65 and 70 submarines through the 2020s, replacing older units with more capable units on a near one-to-one basis.” The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) in the USA gave a slightly different figure, expecting China’s submarine fleet to grow from around 66 boats today to 76 by 2030.
Describing the Jin-class, the USA said these “represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent”. Each Type 094 SSBN can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs. It also stated: “The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN, which likely began construction in the early 2020s, will reportedly carry a new type of SLBM. The PLAN is expected to operate the Type 094 and Type 096 SSBNs concurrently and could have up to eight SSBNs by 2030. This would align with Chairman Xi Jinping’s 2018 directive for the SSBN force to achieve ‘stronger growth’.”
It is already known that China is snowballing its inventory of nuclear warheads. This is most dramatically seen in land-based weapons, with massive silo fields for DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles being constructed deep inside China. The Pentagon estimates that the PLA will have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and 1,000 just three years after that.
The US Department of Defense commented, “The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea- and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces.” It is not just nuclear submarines receiving attention either. By 2025, the PLAN will likely have 25+ Yuan-class conventional submarines, a type that has been undergoing continual spiral development.
For example, the PLAN commissioned a new Yuan-class variant in July, allocating it to Daxie Dao Submarine Base of the East Sea Fleet, which faces Taiwan. The new design is perhaps called the Type 039C or D. It is distinguished by a faceted sail featuring a chine along its length, and quite likely the design helps reduce the submarine’s cross-section when it is running on the surface.
This boat had been built in Wuhan and was fitted out in Shanghai. It took less than a year to be commissioned, which is remarkably fast for a new design. As well as carrying torpedoes and YJ-18 anti-ship missiles, it possesses a towed-array sonar mounted at the rear. Undoubtedly, the submarine has an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system that permits the boat to stay submerged for longer periods.
China is also using deception to hide the identity of its SSBNs too, by giving the same pennant number to different hulls, for example, or not disclosing a number whatsoever. In photos, the PLAN might also photoshop details to hide identifying features.
As can be seen, the status of China’s submarine force remains something of an enigma. However, there is no doubting that Chinese underwater boats are becoming more capable, and that new designs and relevant weapons are being developed and manufactured.
Defence institution needs reform
In order to transform, the People’s Liberation Army into a “world-class military”, China need to improve the system and layout of science, technology, and industries related to national defence, The Hong Kong Post reported.
China’s Defence science and technology (S and T) institutions form the backbone of China’s military might and are the most important source for its defence technology, despite the fact that their technology R and D system also comprises government research units, universities, and business research departments.
Earlier, on October 16, in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Chinese leader stressed improving the Defence S and T institutes.
While addressing the Congress, Xi said, “We will improve the system and layout of science, technology, and industries related to national defence and step up capacity building in these areas.”
After this, on October 25, State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND) held a cadres conference, where its director, Zhang Kejian, reiterated Xi’s comments regarding Chinese defence technology and demanded that his subordinates carry out Xi’s crucial instructions, according to Hong Kong Post.
Defence technology reform is still a top goal for the CCP, and China will continue to advance this to transform the PLA into a “world-class military.”
Despite the fact that these institutions are essential to China, issues have always persisted. For Beijing to increase its capability for defence technology development, these problems must be resolved through a true system reform.
China’s defence S and T institutes have experienced inefficiencies and a dearth of incentives for innovation, much like their parent businesses. They have been classified as “public institutions” in accordance with the communist system, which means that the Chinese government has authority over their assets, finances, and workforce. The institution also doesn’t have efficient bureaucratic procedures and at the same time, there is also low profitability, which discourages innovation.
Many industrial divisions of defence businesses that produce goods for the civilian market have been listed on the stock market since the 1980s economic reform era started, but defence Sand T institutes that house sensitive technology have remained public organisations reported Hong Kong Post.
In particular, the government appropriates the funding and salaries of institutes, and the results of their research cannot be commercially exploited without official approval. It follows that neither the institute nor the individual researchers have the flexibility required for innovation.
The research arm of China’s major defence corporations on weapons and equipment is these institutes, which own the fundamental military technology and work with associated scientists. Rather than their parent corporations or institutions, they are the primary force behind the development of China’s defence technology. (ANI)
A brief meeting between Xi and US Vice President was held on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ conference in Bangkok, reports Asian Lite News
Chinese President Xi Jinping met US Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday and expressed hope that the United States and China will jointly reduce misunderstanding and return the relations to a stable track.
This brief meeting between Xi and US Vice President was held on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ conference in Bangkok.
“On 19 November local time, President Xi Jinping had a brief exchange with Vice President Kamala Harris of the United States at the latter’s request on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Bangkok,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement.
In the Chinese readout of the meeting, Xi said that his recent meeting with US President Joe Biden was strategic, constructive, and had important guiding significance for the next stage of China-US relations .
The Chinese leader expressed the hope that both countries would “further enhance mutual understanding, reduce misunderstanding and misjudgment, and jointly drive China-US relations back to a healthy and stable track.” The readout said that the US Vice President will hopefully play an active role to this end.
US President Joe Biden told his China counterpart Xi Jinping that he is committed to keeping lines of communication open with the latter.
Harris, meanwhile, said that the US does not seek “confrontation or conflict with Beijing,” adding that both nations should cooperate on global issues and keep channels of communication open.
“Today in Bangkok, I greeted President Xi before the APEC Leaders Retreat. I noted a key message that President Biden emphasized in his November 14 meeting with President Xi: we must maintain open lines of communication to responsibly manage the competition between our countries,” Harris tweeted.
At the recently concluded G20 summit in Bali, Biden met with Xi on Monday for a face-to-face meeting as leaders of their respective countries.
They discussed a range of issues during their meeting on Monday, including the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the conflict in Ukraine, human rights situation in China and Taiwan.
The two leaders reached a mutual understanding with one another in the course of their talks, Biden said.
“Everything we discuss has been leaked to the paper, that’s not appropriate,” Xi says to Trudeau through a translator….reports Asian Lite News
Chinese President Xi Jinping has angrily rebuked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after officials in the latter’s country shared details of a previous meeting, highlighting the frosty relationship between the two leaders.
In a clip recorded by the media pool at the now-concluded G20 summit in Bali, a visibly frustrated Xi pulls the Canadian Prime Minister aside and says it was “not appropriate” for details about a previous conversation between the two leaders to have been shared with media, suggesting Trudeau lacked “sincerity” in his approach, the Guarian reported.
“Everything we discuss has been leaked to the paper, that’s not appropriate,” Xi says to Trudeau through a translator.
“And that’s not the way the conversation was conducted,” he added.
The testy exchange came a day after government sources briefed that during a previous conversation on the margins of the summit, Trudeau had raised “serious concerns” with Xi over China’s increasingly aggressive “interference activities”.
Xi’s irritation on Wednesday was a rare break with his normally carefully scripted public appearances.
“In Canada, we believe in free and open and frank dialogue and that is what we will continue to have,” Trudeau said, interrupting Xi’s translator.
“We will continue to look to work constructively together but there will be things we will disagree on.”
Gesturing with his hands, Xi told Trudeau the two must “create the conditions first”, the Guardian reported.
The pair ended their conversation by shaking hands and leaving in opposite directions, with the Canadian Prime Minister looking chastened from the encounter.
The uncomfortable exchange, and the previous conversation, followed repeated warnings from Trudeau and other officials that China had attempted to undermine Canada’s democracy, said the Guardian report.
Xi Jinping arrives for the opening meeting of the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, March 5, 2021. (Xinhua/Ju Peng/IANS)
The complete focus during the 20th party congress was seen shifted to politics, hyper-nationalism and military expansion
Chinese economy has ceased to become a priority area for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration as was reflected in the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, media reports said.
Firstly, Xi’s government delayed releasing the economic data. The complete focus during the 20th party congress was seen shifted to politics, hyper-nationalism and military expansion, reported the Financial Post.
According to Ting Lu, a China economist chief said, “The actual economic recovery momentum is not strong.” The Chinese economy is also facing the brunt of harsh COVID lockdowns and restrictions.
The scenario of the Chinese economy has become upside down after the pandemic. Before the pandemic, the Chinese economy grew by 7.7 per cent on average each year, however, there are concerns that China may not be able to reach 3 per cent annual growth now, reported Financial Post.
Furthermore, to compete with the US, China must clock at least 5 per cent growth if it wants to displace the US from the rank one. The reasons for China’s growth trajectory derailment are poor productivity, weakening human resource power, and burgeoning debt.
President Xi Jinping at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. (Photo: Xinhua/IANS)
This will lay a negative impact on China’s aspirations as an economic, diplomatic and military superpower. Alex Brazier and Serena Jiang, economists at investment firm Blackrock have highlighted that the boost in the Chinese economy received in recent years is slowly dying down.
They said, “Losing that huge growth driver will make maintaining overall economic growth quite the challenge.” The third term of Xi Jinping started off with fever-pitch nationalistic sentiments where Xi Jinping vowed to make China the most powerful country. However, the country appears to be losing steam on the economic front.
For instance, China’s exports are declining, industrial output plummeting, and strict lockdowns affecting businesses. The country’s elites are also leaving China. China’s highhandedness in dealing with the pandemic management is adding to the economic problem.
Another thing is how China’s international coercive policies, especially China’s aggressiveness on Taiwan and other neighbours. All of this has made China less popular during Xi’s regime, reported The Financial Post.
Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews the Peoples Liberation Army Navy in the South China Sea. (Credit Xinhua)
Lisheng Wang, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said “China’s fiscal conditions have faced significant challenges since spring this year, from the sharp contraction in land sales, large-scale tax rebates and deferrals, and more spending on Covid controls.”
China’s GDP growth for the third quarter was restricted to under 4 per cent, indicating an economic slowdown. Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said “There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future, and we don’t expect any meaningful relaxation before 2024.”
Highlighting negative growth of 1.1 percentage points in exports in 2022 and 2023, experts said, “Losing that huge growth driver will make maintaining overall economic growth quite the challenge.” (ANI)
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets Chinese President Xi Jinping.(photo:facebook.com/ShehbazSharif)
The $13 billion package is equal to 38 per cent of the estimated gross external financing requirements of Pakistan for fiscal year 2022-23
Pakistan has got assurances of a $13 billion financial package from China and Saudi Arabia, including $5.7 billion in fresh loans that would help stabilise the reserves and the rupee, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said in a statement.
The $13 billion package is equal to 38 per cent of the estimated gross external financing requirements of Pakistan for fiscal year 2022-23, The Express Tribune reported.
Its materialisation can eliminate the threat of default, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has not come up with a big financial package despite imposing numerous harsh conditions.
Pakistan sought $7.3 billion debt rollover and a fresh loan of $1.5 billion from China, which the Chinese premier had assured to take care of, Dar told a group of journalists a day after his return from Beijing.
The cumulative loan that Pakistan has sought from China amounts to $8.8 billion.
Dar disclosed that he also requested his Saudi counterpart for a $4.2 billion in fresh loan.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. (Photo: Instagram)
“The Saudi Finance Minister also gave ‘a positive nod’,” he added.
The cumulative value of the Chinese and Saudi financial assistance would cover 38 per cent of Pakistan’s estimated gross external financing requirements, The Express Tribune reported.
The injection is expected to recoup the lost value of the rupee.
Dar said that the real inflation-adjusted value of the rupee was below 200 PKR to a dollar, hoping to see a stronger value of the local currency without any injection.
Why Xi Jinping's iron grip will only tighten during the upcoming 20th Party congress in China
Through the 20th National Congress, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has demonstrated that Chairman Xi Jinping is the nucleus of power in China…reports Asian Lite News
Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s historic third term as China’s President will likely see more hardline policies out of Beijing on the economy, foreign relations and human rights, analysts told Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA).
On Sunday, Communist Party Xi Jinping presented the Party’s new central leadership at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where he secured a historic third term as the country’s top leader.
Top aides of Xi were promoted in Communist Party of China’s Politburo Standing Committee but no woman could find a place in the top leadership position for the first time in years, according to the newly released list by state media.
Through the 20th National Congress, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has demonstrated that Chairman Xi Jinping is the nucleus of power in China and that none can dare stand against him.
Xi had packed the Politburo Standing Committee with his close allies showing that he can now act as he pleases, according to Germany-based ethnic Mongolian rights activist Xi Haiming.
“This is the last madness,” Xi Haiming told a recent political forum in Taiwan. He said, “Xi has emerged, naked, as Emperor Xi, as a dictator.”
“Too many people in China are lining up to be his eunuchs, kowtowing to him, waiting for the emperor to ascend to the throne,” he was quoted as saying by RFA.
China is now firmly back in the Mao era, according to a Chinese journalist, who refused to be identified due to fear of reprisals.
“This 20th National Congress is the beginning of the Mao era,” Geng said. “People used to say it was the 9th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party that was bad, because it hailed Mao Zedong as the red sun.”
According to analyst Wen Zhigang, the old system of “collective leadership” is well and truly dead.
“Collective leadership no longer exists, and the leader sits, aloof … a leader of the people who is above the party,” Wen said.
According to senior China researcher Wu Guoguang, Xi has more say over who gets to be premier — his second-in-command Li Qiang — than late supreme leader Mao Zedong did.
“Xi Jinping wields greater power to appoint his preferred premier than Mao Zedong did,” Wu told RFA. (ANI)
Will Nepal become a battleground of China-US rivalry during Xi Jinping's third term in office?.(photo:IN)
As a result of China’s pro-active engagements in Nepal during Xi’s last tenure, the US has also geared up to counter China in the South Asian nation, writes Santosh Ghimire
As Chinese President Xi Jinping began his third five-year term as the General Secretary of Communist Party of China (CPC) on Sunday, the fresh political development in the northern neighbour was also deeply observed in next-door Nepal.
In Nepal, Xi’s re-election to the party’s top job is being viewed from two perspectives. According to China watchers here, the first is how China takes forward its overall neighbourhood policy, including Nepal, and the second is how China battles the US in the region during Xi’s upcoming tenure.
Sundar Nath Bhattarai, Chairman of China Study Center, said that China has viewed Nepal as a gateway to South Asia and brought various infrastructure plans accordingly.
“Chinese President Xi told multiple times that he sees Nepal as a dynamic bridge between China and South Asia. It was Xi who vowed to transform landlocked Nepal into a land-linked country when he visited Nepal in October 2019. However, his strategic vision could not go into implementation due to both geopolitical and domestic reasons in his last term. This time around, Xi may push the same idea although he knows that India is not positive towards it,” Bhattarai told India Narrative on Sunday.
Is China forcing Nepal to accept projects under BRI?(IN)
Of late, Nepal has witnessed growing strategic rivalry between the US and China and this trend will continue, he added.
“China may become more assertive in Nepal in the coming days due to growing influence of the West, particularly the US,” Bhattarai, who is also a former career diplomat, said.
As a result of China’s pro-active engagements in Nepal during Xi’s last tenure, the US has also geared up to counter China in the South Asian nation, observers said.
Recent geopolitical events suggested that China’s reactive diplomacy put Nepal into a geopolitical quagmire as the rising power made an unsuccessful attempt to prevent the passage of the US-initiated Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact from the Nepali Parliament in February this year.
Nepal is trapped in the geopolitical and geostrategic rivalries between China and the US over the Tibetan issue, too.
When Xi visited Nepal in October 2019, he told the Nepali leaders that anyone attempting to split China will be “crushed”. Xi’s comments came as Beijing had been putting pressure on Kathmandu to rein-in pro-Dalai Lama Tibetans in Nepal.
Nepal shares a 1414-km border with Tibet and is home to nearly 20,000 Tibetan exiles. Every year hundreds of Tibetan refugees enter Nepal crossing the Tibetan border on their way to Dharamsala, India, to meet their spiritual leader Dalai Lama. Beijing views the Dalai Lama as a secessionist trying to split the Tibetan region from China.
Amid growing tensions between Beijing and Washington over numerous issues, including the human rights of the Tibetans, Xi is likely to adopt a more assertive approach to protect his country’s security interest. This will put Nepal into a geopolitical quagmire, experts believe.
Bhattarai agreed that Xi’s China will keep seeking assurances from the Nepali leaders over the Tibet issue, calling it a sovereign matter of China.
“It was Xi who warned the Nepali leaders in 2019 that anyone attempting to split China will be crushed. Xi was referring to the US attempt to play the Tibetan card,” he added.
As China has become more assertive, projecting itself as a superpower, it has been pressing Nepal to implement the agreement reached between the two countries. In the final days of this second term, Xi sent senior CPC leaders and Ministers to Nepal and those visits were aimed at keeping tabs on the US’ influence.
During Xi’s visit, the two countries had elevated their bilateral ties to “strategic partnership” and signed a slew of agreements, including a plan to build a trans-Himalayan railway line under the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. However, Nepal has, of late, reluctantly conveyed to China that it wants only grants under BRI, not commercial loans.
Despite Nepal’s reluctance to execute projects under the BRI owing to debt-trap fear, China has kept asking Nepal to finalise railroad-connectivity projects. However, not a single project has been selected in Nepal yet under the mega infrastructure initiative introduced by Chinese President Xi in his first term (2013 to 2018).
“It is very likely that China will pursue the BRI with more vigour whereas the US and its allies may try to block the BRI projects. This may also cause unease in the South Asia region,” Yuba Nath Lamsal, a former Nepali Ambassador and foreign policy observer, told India Narrative.
As Xi seeks to build a new development pattern in all sectors of China at a time when the world economy is facing headwinds, China appears to portray the Chinese economic pattern as an alternative model of development.
Lasmal said that China is likely to be more assertive and outward looking in the international arena given Xi’s tone and tenor.
“As China seems to be portraying modernisation and security as the two sides of a coin, China may be more assertive in the neighbourhood, especially when the US is building its alliance and strengthening its capability in Asia and the pacific region. This scenario may create friction in our neighbourhood, which could be a matter of concern for countries in the region,” Lamsal told India Narrative.
In February, the MCC Nepal Compact, a $500 million infrastructure and economic development grant from the US government, was passed through Nepal’s parliament despite China’s public displeasure. China and the US also engaged in war of words over the MCC Nepal Compact accusing each other of violating Nepal’s sovereign decision.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the US of employing coercive diplomacy against Nepal while the US countered that it was China who was behind the delay in passing the US grant program MCC.
A month after the passage of the US grant programme MCC, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kathmandu in March during which he said China would oppose any attempt to undermine Nepal’s sovereignty and independence, interfere in its internal affairs and engage in “geopolitical games”, indirectly hinting at growing US presence in the country.
(Santosh Ghimire is a diplomatic correspondent based in Kathmandu)
(The content is being carried under an arrangement with indianarrative.com)
No timeline has been set, but senior defence figures have said China could be capable of invasion as early as 2027…reports Asian Lite News
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s purging of political rivals and elevation of loyalists to the top ranks of the Chinese Communist party has raised fears that his now unfettered and unquestionable power could increase the risk of an attack on Taiwan, the media reported.
Beijing has pledged to annex Taiwan under a disputed claim that it is a Chinese province, and in recent years has increased its military activity and other forms of harassment and coercion, The Guardian reported.
No timeline has been set, but senior defence figures have said China could be capable of invasion as early as 2027. Others point to Xi’s pledge of “national rejuvenation” by 2047 — the centenary of the People’s Republic of China — as a potential goal.
But with the events of last week’s CCP congress, which consolidated power around Xi at levels not seen for decades, some are now questioning whether there is anyone left in the party who could stop him from making a rash move, The Guardian reported.
The 20th party congress — the most important meeting of China’s political cycle — ended with Xi’s reappointment for a precedent breaking third term, and a reshuffle of officials.
The central committee, the politburo, the seven-member standing committee (PSC) and the Xi-led central military commission (CMC), which is in charge of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), are now dominated by loyalists and cleared of potential objectors and people from rival factions, The Guardian reported.
Official reports and constitutional amendments also enshrined its hardening official stance towards Taiwan that had escalated as recently as August with the release of a white paper.
Analysts and Taiwanese decision-makers are studying the changes to assess whether Xi’s timeline for Taiwan is any shorter, or the same. After a week of watching the congress — an exercise sometimes compared to reading tea leaves — most agreed it definitely had not slowed.
Prof Steve Tsang, the director of the Soas China Institute, said the changes made last week unquestionably increased the risk of China using force against Taiwan.
A soldier looks through binoculars during combat exercises and training of the navy of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the waters around the Taiwan Island, Aug. 5, 2022. (Photo by Lin Jian/Xinhua/IANS)
Vision and ambition of one man
It was a crowning moment for Xi Jinping when he stepped onto a red-carpet stage on Sunday to begin his norm-shattering third term as China’s supreme leader, media reported.
Xi, 69, has emerged from the ruling Communist Party’s five-yearly congress with more power than ever, stacking his party’s top tiers with longtime proteges and staunch allies.
That loyal inner circle has not only strengthened Xi’s hold on power – but also tightened his grip over China’s future. To an extent unseen in decades, the country’s trajectory is shaped by the vision and ambition of one man, with minimal room for discord or recalibration at the party’s apex of power, CNN reported.
In the eyes of Xi, China is closer than ever to achieving its dream of “national rejuvenation” and reclaiming its rightful place in the world. But the path ahead is also beset with “high winds, choppy waters, or even dangerous storms” – a dark warning Xi made at both the start and the end of the week-long congress.
The growing challenges have stemmed from “a grim and complex international situation,” with “external attempts to suppress and contain China” threatening to “escalate at any time,” according to Xi’s work report to the congress.
Observers say Xi’s answer to that darkening outlook is to intensify the fierce defence of China’s national interests and security against all perceived threats.
“Xi is likely to tightly control and be involved in all major foreign policy decisions. His packing of the top Chinese leadership with loyalists will allow him to better control and exert influence,” said Bonny Lin, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) China Power Project, CNN reported.
What he decides to do – and how he goes about doing it – will have a profound impact on the world.
Xi steps into his next era in power facing a significantly different landscape to his previous two terms. The relationship between China and the West has changed dramatically with US-China relations cratering over a trade and tech war, frictions over Taiwan, Covid-19, Beijing’s human rights record and its refusal to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine, CNN reported.
